Cyclone Ex-TC Esther - An interior washout

Discussion in 'Systems & Events' started by POW_hungry, Feb 28, 2020.

Tags:
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    10,355
    Likes Received:
    14,579
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Obviously it doesn't work out as a predictive theory if you see Eyre full now, and the climate drivers change substantially before winter.
     
  2. Rainbow Spirit

    Rainbow Spirit Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2019
    Messages:
    146
    Likes Received:
    110
    Location:
    Green Valley
    My thoughts exactly
     
  3. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2019
    Messages:
    479
    Likes Received:
    1,041
    Location:
    Artarmon, Sydney North Shore
    Sydney Airport (max 39.4° so far) seems to be the hottest place in the State, followed by Penrith (39.0°).
     
    Majikthise likes this.
  4. piolet

    piolet Better make it three Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 27, 2004
    Messages:
    32,522
    Likes Received:
    34,790
    Location:
    in the cupboard covered in dust
    The Diamantina full at sundown from the air is etched into my memory from 15 years or so ago. Braids of silver.
     
    Flowin likes this.
  5. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    18,870
    Likes Received:
    19,964
    Location:
    Canberra
    Wicked Wednesday on EC 18Z
     
    nfip, DDstorm, SMSkier and 3 others like this.
  6. art

    art One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2004
    Messages:
    419
    Likes Received:
    726
    http://www.cmar.csiro.au/e-print/internal/mcgregor_x2004a.pdf
     
  7. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    May 15, 2014
    Messages:
    2,576
    Likes Received:
    4,779
    Strange that the modeling is so consistent with yesterday, given the volatility of these past weeks. Sorta nice to see things settle a bit.
     
  8. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2002
    Messages:
    63,093
    Likes Received:
    37,890
    Location:
    Mountains
    Come on you big moist penetration .....

    Dam filler
     
    StormyLee, Belly, SMSkier and 3 others like this.
  9. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    37,221
    Likes Received:
    36,712
    Location:
    woonona
    You came up with that quickly
     
  10. Homer

    Homer One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2005
    Messages:
    522
    Likes Received:
    882
    Location:
    Castle Hill - Sydney
    Sydney AP maxed at 39.6.
    Penrith 39.5.
     
  11. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2019
    Messages:
    861
    Likes Received:
    4,543
    Location:
    Pinjarra Hills, QLD
    GFS 00z forecast still has no interest in sending remnant low pressure of ex TC Esther down through the interior. But GFS wind and TPW do support moisture belt to the south, seen in pic1 7day animation and pic2 IVT map for TAU+66 hours.
    Hope the IVT forming this Aussie version of a summer atmospheric river happens. The interior of Australia rarely gets good rains, but when they occur it brings life to ancient landscapes.
    PS. the backend of GFS forecast also looks interesting but I tend to watch late parts of GFS with some wait and see bemusement.


     
    DDstorm, Majikthise, Steve777 and 3 others like this.
  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,465
    Likes Received:
    25,936
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    The deepening, closed low is the real bone of contention here and one in which could be the difference of an extra 20-40mm.
    EC has been particularly stubborn about it, whilst GFS, AXS & The Canuck don't seem to give a toss.

    BoM seems to like the outcome in any case.
     
    DDstorm, SMSkier, Flowin and 2 others like this.
  13. Slovenski

    Slovenski One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 7, 2019
    Messages:
    385
    Likes Received:
    1,822
    Location:
    Mount Hallen
    I like the look of that if just moved a bit more eastish.
    Cheers
     
    POW_hungry and Flowin like this.
  14. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2015
    Messages:
    1,847
    Likes Received:
    3,738
    Location:
    Tooma , NSW
    No , its fine just where it is ..................for me anyway. Everywhere east has already had a good share of rain , we have had 2/5ths of naff all , its our turn.
     
  15. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2014
    Messages:
    4,254
    Likes Received:
    11,205
    Location:
    Canberra
    Some big rainfall totals predicted for Canberra if you believe BOM:

     
  16. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2019
    Messages:
    479
    Likes Received:
    1,041
    Location:
    Artarmon, Sydney North Shore
    The BOM's four day prediction shows ex-Esther crossing the continent from its present location near Tenant Creek, through SW Qld and inland NSW, exiting near Cape Howe to be reincarnated as a deep Tasman low. The low quickly away to the SE and is no longer affecting our weather after Friday. I think that this is the outcome our inland colleagues were hoping for and myself as well.



    Actually, I'll be looking forward to the brief spell of Westerlies on Friday (and possible storms) before a lengthy spell of South Easterlies takes over.
     
    #66 Steve777, Mar 3, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 3, 2020
    SMSkier, DaveM and Homer like this.
  17. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    18,870
    Likes Received:
    19,964
    Location:
    Canberra
  18. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    18,870
    Likes Received:
    19,964
    Location:
    Canberra
    Upgraded on the 4 20 pm update.
     
    Flowin and Homer like this.
  19. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    23,490
    Likes Received:
    17,148
    Location:
    Dubbo NSW
    Light rain just commenced at young.
     
    SMSkier, Flowin, DaveM and 2 others like this.
  20. Homer

    Homer One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2005
    Messages:
    522
    Likes Received:
    882
    Location:
    Castle Hill - Sydney
    Some nice totals forecast for Cooma and the Alps as well.
    Great for dams and paddocks alike.
     
  21. jish33

    jish33 Early Days

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2019
    Messages:
    41
    Likes Received:
    49
    Location:
    Canberra Stadium
    Canberra to get hit by rain from around
    730-8pm tonight.

    Dams at 46 percent.
     
    Flowin and Val Desire like this.
  22. DaveM

    DaveM One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 18, 2000
    Messages:
    752
    Likes Received:
    472
    Location:
    Bathurst NSW
    Over 9mm here today, still steady persistent showers, lovely soaking stuff for my dry soil. Just need it to continue another couple of days.

    Those Canberra numbers look VERY solid! Not the case here but as long as most areas that missed previously get a drink I will be happy.

    Bathurst could do with heavier rain for the Oberon n Black Springs area to get off extreme water restrictions and get our dam to have positive net inflows. Fingers crossed.
     
    SMSkier, Flowin, Val Desire and 6 others like this.
  23. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2019
    Messages:
    479
    Likes Received:
    1,041
    Location:
    Artarmon, Sydney North Shore
    Light rain started here early this afternoon, with the rate picking up a bit now. The roads are wet although people outside aren't bothering with umbrellas. Forecast 7-day totals for Sydney:

    Sydney: 18 - 64 mm
    Penrith: 22 - 72 mm

    Bathurst is expecting 30-59.
     
    SMSkier, DaveM, Flowin and 2 others like this.
  24. warrie

    warrie Addicted

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2008
    Messages:
    472
    Likes Received:
    218
    Location:
    Sydney
    Have a look at the Lake Eyre Yacht Club site here:http://www.lakeeyreyc.com/
    In short, it got to 5.7 m deep in 1974..............W
     
    Flowin and piolet like this.
  25. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 15, 2002
    Messages:
    20,407
    Likes Received:
    13,186
    Location:
    Top drawer
    So many catchments to get a good drink. For some it's a tasty follow up. The last few weeks have been loads nicer than the preceding 12 months.
     
    DDstorm, Flowin and Val Desire like this.
  26. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2019
    Messages:
    861
    Likes Received:
    4,543
    Location:
    Pinjarra Hills, QLD
    TPW estimates from mimic-tpw2 for the last 24 hours. Even if not much rain occurs such conditions are good to temporarily ease evaporation of existing landscape moisture for interior Australia.
     
    DDstorm, DaveM and Steve777 like this.
  27. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    18,870
    Likes Received:
    19,964
    Location:
    Canberra
    11pm kick off
     
    Undies and Lady Penelope like this.
  28. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2015
    Messages:
    1,847
    Likes Received:
    3,738
    Location:
    Tooma , NSW
    1-2 am for me .....................hopefully.
     
  29. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    18,870
    Likes Received:
    19,964
    Location:
    Canberra
    There was more cloud cover in ACT area than predicted - affecting the heat budget so its now cooler at the surface than predicted. Might diminish the totals somewhat imo.
     
  30. Homer

    Homer One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2005
    Messages:
    522
    Likes Received:
    882
    Location:
    Castle Hill - Sydney
    Over 15 mm's now for you Dave. Nice soaking rain.
    Also, over the old inch mark at Orange. It's just what the Central Tablelands needed. Another 20-50 mm's would be just beautiful.
    Enjoy hearing the pitter-patter on the roof.
     
    SMSkier, DDstorm, dawooduck and 2 others like this.
  31. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2019
    Messages:
    861
    Likes Received:
    4,543
    Location:
    Pinjarra Hills, QLD
    Impressive water vapour sat images over eastern Australia at this time.

     
    SMSkier, DDstorm, Rabid K9 and 7 others like this.
  32. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2019
    Messages:
    289
    Likes Received:
    523
    Location:
    Anglers Reach, NSW; 1,290 m AMSL; 36° 01’ 03.59” S
    Some mighty fine rainfall totals on the BoM Meteye forecast; up to 162 mm forecast!

    [​IMG]
     
    malas1, SMSkier, dawooduck and 2 others like this.
  33. Homer

    Homer One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2005
    Messages:
    522
    Likes Received:
    882
    Location:
    Castle Hill - Sydney
    Yep, mentioned this earlier for your part of the world.
    Great figures forecast!
    Even if only half of the top predicted totals fall, it will be a great event.
    Temps nice and cool as well.
    Quite a nice system this is, just 1 week out of summer.
     
    Adaminaby Angler likes this.
  34. AshestoAshes

    AshestoAshes Addicted

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2019
    Messages:
    225
    Likes Received:
    324
    Location:
    Voyager Point NSW
    All I see is no more dust storms! Can't imagine how depressing it would've been to endure frequent dust storms for more than a year out west.

    Can't wait to see the numbers for Burrinjuck Dam and Blowering Dam after this event. Lake Hume looks to see good inflows just how much depends on the lows movement.
     
  35. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    18,870
    Likes Received:
    19,964
    Location:
    Canberra
    A quick look at the Engine room- as progged but a tad slower..
     
  36. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    37,221
    Likes Received:
    36,712
    Location:
    woonona
    That's like having a engine room in your boot.
    So uncommon
     
  37. DaveM

    DaveM One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 18, 2000
    Messages:
    752
    Likes Received:
    472
    Location:
    Bathurst NSW
    Not raining now but obviously more on the way. About 12mm my house so far.

    If we can get decent falls on the Oberon Plateau it will help river catchments get going
     
  38. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    18,870
    Likes Received:
    19,964
    Location:
    Canberra
    Showers now in kambah ACT
     
  39. AshestoAshes

    AshestoAshes Addicted

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2019
    Messages:
    225
    Likes Received:
    324
    Location:
    Voyager Point NSW
    WOW!!! Fowler's Gap at 111.6mms at this time right now since 9am note the average annual rainfall is 227.2mms. Temperature is 15.4 degrees out there right now, 9am reset wrecking records again with a peak of 18.9 degrees at 6:01am record is 18.3 degrees for daily maximum. Hopefully it can break it come tomorrow.
     
  40. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2000
    Messages:
    10,782
    Likes Received:
    815
    Location:
    Jimi on Weatherzone. Killara, Sydney
    This includes more than 70mm in the two hours from 9pm to 11pm tonight. Extraordinary
     
  41. Dylan Kearney

    Dylan Kearney Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 27, 2019
    Messages:
    21
    Likes Received:
    94
    Is this tonight? It looks a little behind compared to current Satellite.

    Those thunderstorms currently through Eastern NT, look very intense. This is all going to merge into the trough and move south!! How exciting!
     
    DDstorm and AshestoAshes like this.
  42. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    18,870
    Likes Received:
    19,964
    Location:
    Canberra
    Yes that was the latest Infra Red image at 8 30 pm. . This is the current image.
     
    DDstorm likes this.
  43. Perfect Storm

    Perfect Storm Early Days

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2019
    Messages:
    17
    Likes Received:
    33
    Location:
    Carramar, South West Sydney.
    With the sound of water outside from the eves on the gutter, water cascading over the balconies surrounding you'd think it's raining quite nicely.

    Can't hear actual rain. Checked radar, nada. Went outside and it's raining a thick/heavy drizzle. Bravo.

    Edit:F 1:00 to 1:24 it rained 0.4 MMS in 24 mins with Bankstown AWS increasing from 2.4 to 2.8 in that time period. That's quite some mizzle. LOL
     
  44. Perfect Storm

    Perfect Storm Early Days

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2019
    Messages:
    17
    Likes Received:
    33
    Location:
    Carramar, South West Sydney.
    Impressive. The 3 new radars being installed out west can't come soon enough. Looking statewide there are so many gaps. Hopefully these should help. Installation due by 2022.

    See Government media release for further information:

    https://www.nsw.gov.au/your-governm...vering-doppler-radar-coverage-to-western-nsw/
     
    AshestoAshes likes this.
  45. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    37,221
    Likes Received:
    36,712
    Location:
    woonona
    I always have Mr Coffee when I watch Mr Radar.
     
    dawooduck, Snowy Joey, piolet and 2 others like this.
  46. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    6,074
    Likes Received:
    3,477
    Location:
    Wollongong
    Is this rain bomb going to fill Lake Eyre up for another good winter season....?

    Leap year and all so usually a decent season regardless....!
     
  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,465
    Likes Received:
    25,936
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Whatcha doing 200 clicks on Mr Boat off the Sapphire Coast?
     
  48. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    37,221
    Likes Received:
    36,712
    Location:
    woonona
    Marlin!
     
  49. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2002
    Messages:
    63,093
    Likes Received:
    37,890
    Location:
    Mountains
    A drizzlabyne morning ...

    Come on you big wet power trip
     
    SMSkier likes this.
  50. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 15, 2002
    Messages:
    20,407
    Likes Received:
    13,186
    Location:
    Top drawer
    Soaked in Sydney. Hoping it's also falling where it's needed.
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.