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Discussion in 'Systems & Events' started by Fast Eddie, Feb 7, 2020.
I'd rather shoot this ex TC into the sun.
We've had way too much weather.
Steering winds of ex-TC Uesi are definitive IMO.
It's not going anywhere near Aus mainland.
@MegaMatch posted a miss “catch” cartoon yesterday. Here is the sat infrared red image of that missed catch.
More offshore than Mundaka
So here's a question...Access R @ 72 hours on the 00z run looked like:
...but when I went to look later the image had been replaced...instead of Access Regional we had Access G3, giving a different picture:
...so not showing the low close to the coast at all. Is this a permanent change and is Access G3 the same as Access G? that you know anything about @Ken Kato ?
The latest Access R 06z run however once again goes against all the forecasts and indications and instead sticks with the east coast low...though it's not actually showing the cyclone hitting the coast so much as a new low developing as the cyclone weakens. here's how it looks via Weatherzone Layers:
...so at least it's consistent between a couple of runs...would be an interesting outcome to day the least...and at 72 hours out I am surprised to see such a difference between Access R and other models. With the cyclone due to be on the move soon I guess we'll know if the outlier model was a stand out student or the class dunce within the next day or so...
Those to our north want a bit more.
ACCESS G3 is the deterministic model of the newly trialed GE-3 (AXS Ensembles - 33km res, increased skill etc.).
Still based on the UK Met (MOGREPS-G), IIRC.
It’s the new APS3 version of ACCESS-G @Bello Weather and because it has the same resolution as ACCESS-R, it’s replacing the latter.
Here’s a post I made last winter about it:
“ Also, ACCESS-G's going to replace ACCESS-R because it's going to run at the same resolution as R as part of its next upgrade (but since there’s a grace period before all ACCESS-R data is switched off, not all websites may display the new version straight away).....
and the ACCESS-GE ensemble as well as the ACCESS-C ensemble and the next upgrade to ACCESS-C is in the pipeline although I’m not sure if they'll be made public. “
Would be preferable GE3 made public, if USA and Europe can make GFS and EC ensembles available, Aussie BOM should also make Axs-GE3 available IMO
Looks like an improvement for the better. AXS-R doesn’t handle cyclones, tropical or sub-tropical very well.
I certainly hope that the global ensemble will be available for the public. AXS-C atm isn’t available to the public, so I would expect it would stay that way.
If the predicted rainfall on AXS-R comes off tomorrow into friday then Warragamba will spill this weekend and western sydney is in a bit of flood trouble. IMO.
Its 100mm+ about over the whole catchment which is already well primed to run the whole lot.
Already another pulse of water moving down the Wollondilly side from last nights rain. Dam up to -8.4m and still rising steadily.
The US has actually had long-standing regulations which basically mandate that products which taxpayers pay for, must be made available in the public domain including outputs from their weather models such as GFS, GEFS, etc @Flowin (there are exceptions of course such as classified or sensitive information, etc). It's a good principle IMO.
Meanwhile the only reason why ECMWF products are widely available these days is because a number of websites such as Windy, weather.us, etc pay an arm and a leg for the data to display it (unlike many modelling centres which are run and funded by their respective government national weather agencies, the ECMWF is essentially private and funded by its European member states)... and except for a minority such as Windy, many of them try to offset the costs a bit by making many of the additional parameters (except from just the basic ones like MSLP, 850hpa winds, etc) a subscription service.
In saying that, there's a bigger range of freely available ECMWF products on various websites for regions such as Europe and the US in general because of the population.
Australia's traditionally been in a bit of a no man's land when it comes to availability of domestic model outputs although the situation has slowly improved with basic ACCESS outputs being available on the Bureau's website while additional stuff is available for a cheap price through sites like Weatherzone. Advanced model-derived products through the Bureau such as 3-hourly WATL forecasts, etc now have to follow federal government cost recovery guidlines and so tend to be ridiculously expensive.
Anyway 1st link above is the latest forecast radar reflectivity loop from the 12z run of HWRF.
2nd image is the forecast phase diagram for Uesi using the consensus of the GFS/CMC/FNMOC ensembles with the grey area representing the spread of the members. As you can see, the general member consensus is for the system to gradually start transitioning (around Point C) from a warm cored TC to a somewhat of a symmetic cold core system as it nears the southern Coral Sea, then eventually asymmetric cold cored as it gets caught up in the midlatitude westerlies, starts developing a frontal structure, etc.... but looks like it might remain a hybrid for a little while until it eventually goes more of a pure cold cored system. Of course, other scenarios like an earlier weakening and therefore remaining warm cored, etc aren't completely off the table yet but that does look rather unlikely.
EC 18Z forecast TPW. Appears that there may still be quite a bit of precipitable water around SEQ after the system passes our latitudes.
EC Rapid 18Z
Soggy Valentines by the looks of things.
Don't mind a moist valentine
Stay on Topic lads.
Latest Bureau technical bulletin pretty much says it all:
" Despite the increased shear, Uesi maintains a strong core in the lower levels.
Moving further south, Uesi is likely to lose its cloud structure but may
maintain its structure in the lower troposphere as it transitions to an
extra-tropical system in the next 12 to 24 hours. Gale to storm force winds may
persist or expand in the southern quadrants as it moves past Lord Howe Island
during Friday morning.
The steering is determined by the slow-moving upper trough over eastern
Australia and by a blocking high pressure system to the southeast. Model
guidance, both deterministic and ensemble forecasts are showing strong
consistency with a continued southwestwards movement passing close to Lord Howe
Island, and then turning towards the southeast on Saturday. All model guidance
indicates the system will remain offshore, closer to Lord Howe Island. "
The exciting part of this scenario - and partly why the thread was started - is the surf it will deliver to the NSW coast.
A consistent swell with good propagation and various directions/conditions throughout the state.
Indeed, EC's still going for primary swells around 3m along the southern QLD coast and 3 to 4m along large sections of the NSW coast. Period up to 12secs so pretty powerful too. Subject to the system's movements of course.
An interesting direction too as compared to the usual direction of big swells. It should light up all kinds of breaks
Local winds and riverine floods to offer interest.
Pambula come on down
I'm feeling a bit concerned about how Lord Howe Island residents and visitors will cope if Uesi hits it, tomorrow. The buildings on Lord Howe aren't designed for withstanding cyclones.
and I predict quite few left hand options closer to home too.
Wind is being ‘knocked out of it’s sails’ rather quickly, it’s not forecasted to be a TC (by category) by the next 36 hours.
That said, it’s certainly not the first time in recent history it’s going to experience such winds and rainfall.
I've seen a few bombs go off over LHI
Yep; it's also breeding season for the various seabirds on the island.
(Have the LH Woodhen been released back into the wild after the rat baiting program?)
TC Uesi looks like it will steamroller LHI, vs. TC Violet (1995) side-swiping it.
You had me at lefts
So when will the driving wind and rain start and peak? the heavy stuff? Trying to plan how to manage things, will be away for a bit of the weekend
It’s highly likely Sydney will see little more than a few onshore showers out of Ex-TC Uesi IMO.
Steering winds push it all South, then Sou-East not long after it rounds LHI.
Is red hot summer on Sunday at Bella Vista Farm going to be rained out?
yeah it dsoent seem to be tracking in a SW direction anymore
Sydney forecast only going for a trickle of rain from tomorrow (Friday )
Assuming that this event isn't like cricket, I wouldn't think so. It looks cloudy and humid with possible light passing showers and the 'possibility' of a thunderstorm.
Cloudy and humid again, as it will be as far as the forecast and models can see apart from a break on Saturday.
Okay, that's great!
It says it won't be cancelled be cause of rain. I would hate it to be like last weekend though!
Passing showers is okay!
Great job to all those forecasters that picked this cyclone, you are a great source of valid information amongst a sea of rumour, speculation and scaremongering out there on both mainstream and social media. Whilst the outlier predictions are always valuable for those "what-if" scenarios, the main thrux of information on this thread turned out to be spot on. I'm grateful. Thx.