Falls Creek/ Hotham to be bought by Vail?

Discussion in 'Snow Talk' started by Apresski, Dec 21, 2018.

  1. Apresski

    Apresski Pool Room
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  2. currawong

    currawong Old but not so Crusty
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    Interesting. Sounds like we will know on Saturday if the rumors are correct.
    No idea if it would be a good thing beyond the inclusion in epic pass.
    Has Vail made much difference to the skier/customer experience at Perisher? OTOH having an owner who actually wants to be in the industry must be a positive
     
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  3. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    It's in the AFR. .. Must be true.

    Dammit more Victorians at Perisher
     
  4. absentskier

    absentskier Old n' Crusty
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    Yes, it is happening.

    Vail also wants to buy Buller but the Grollos have said no. For the moment.
     
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  5. Kopite

    Kopite Addicted

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    Be interesting what they do with the passes. With Epic aye get you all resorts, or will there be a single resort option at a lower price? It’s unlikely I’ll go to the Vic resorts so wouldn’t really want to pay a premium for them on my pass. I’d imagine similar for people in Vic with Perisher too.
     
  6. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    Epic passes are cheaper than a normal season pass no?
     
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  7. Kopite

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    Not sure for the Vic resorts. But will they increase Epic pass prices to reflect access to the ‘new’ resorts?
     
  8. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    No.
    This is nothing about Australians skiing in other Aussie resorts.
     
  9. Chaeron

    Chaeron One of Us
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    Would make sense for Merlin - no automatic synergy or gains from scale for them in their current ownership of Hotham/Falls. They mainly own amusement parks - their Australian portfolio included the Otway skywalk, Chadstone Lego centre, Melbourne Aquarium and some similar Queensland stuff.
     
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  10. Hully

    Hully One of Us

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    No, why would they do that? That's not the model.
     
  11. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable
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    The big ski pass Hoover is hoovering. $150 a day or $800 up front .... bargain

    Perhaps their goal is to have every ski school in the non European ski world wear blue ...
     
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  12. Kopite

    Kopite Addicted

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    Fair enough. Looking for the Aussie dollars overseas?
     
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  13. Chaeron

    Chaeron One of Us
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  14. Chaeron

    Chaeron One of Us
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    Vail would consider the cross-promotional revenue gains and maybe some improved margins from management synergies and increased gains from scale in the Australian market.

    Merlin makes a profit and exits a non-core business, Vail expands its footprint- portfolio consolidation.
     
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  15. Slide Sideways

    Slide Sideways Hard Yards

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    Lift on Mckay :whistle:
     
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  16. gaz35

    gaz35 Addicted

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    hopefully true - some value for the season pass finally
     
  17. Chaeron

    Chaeron One of Us
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    Season Pass already good value i.m.o.
     
  18. travelislife

    travelislife One of Us
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  19. Chaeron

    Chaeron One of Us
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  20. DPS Driver

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  21. Stick

    Stick Hard Yards

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    Does anyone think that with this acquisition that Vail may have some political clout to get more terrain open at either resort? Not sure what clout they would have in Oz, but a multibillion company must have some..
     
  22. Chaeron

    Chaeron One of Us
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    Actually, seller Merln is probably bigger than Vail financially.

    The legislative hurdles have become more and more difficult to overcome and expanding the Victorian resort footprint is unlikely, especially as its into National Parkland.

    New lifts into unlifted areas on the existing footprint don’t always increase revenue- they’ll push money into lifting visitor numbers first. I’d expect day pass price increases though....
     
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  23. chicski

    chicski One of Us
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    Yeah has made it busier.
     
  24. Stick

    Stick Hard Yards

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    I guess i did not realize that Merlin was that big, noting your comments though given that Falls/Hotham are more cream on the top rather than core business, Vail might be more inclined to push for expansion..

    I guess they are not looking at season pass holders etc & more the day trippers..
     
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  25. Chaeron

    Chaeron One of Us
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    It’s all about the push into the Chinese market - season pass holders peripheral to the decision- although cross-selling Falls/Hotham passholders into Northern hemisphere Vail resorts is undoubtedly a (small) benefit for them.
     
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  26. Hully

    Hully One of Us

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    When they purchased Perisher that were quite clear that they were buying inbound visitation to their NA resorts. This seems more aimed at the Chinese market.... maybe capture them into the 'Vail system' in the southern hemi winter and then 'upsell' them into NA resorts for northern hemi winter....?
     
  27. teckel

    teckel Old n' Crusty
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    I dunno. The Chinese seem to think they are the ants pants in the ski world!! ROFL
    I had a customer this past winter who, when I asked about their XC experience, puffed out the chest and pronounced "I ski in China". I found it a little difficult to keep a straight face.
     
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  28. Pink

    Pink One of Us

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    MHARMB want more terrain open. $ is the hurdle.
     
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  29. Bogong

    Bogong Part of the Furniture
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  30. Chaeron

    Chaeron One of Us
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    “Chinese tourists spent $10.4 billion while in Australia in 2017 and the main purpose for travelling to Australia was for holidays. 679,354 visitors came to Australia for holiday purposes. The most popular destinations were Sydney at 62%, Melbourne with 50% and the Gold Coast at 25% of visitors. China has a population of 1.38 billion people meaning that less than 1% of their population visited Australia in 2017.”

    https://www.budgetdirect.com.au/travel-insurance/research/tourism-statistics.html

    Over 200 000 Chinese students in Australia in 2018.
     
  31. Chaeron

    Chaeron One of Us
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    Great pickup!
     
  32. Bogong

    Bogong Part of the Furniture
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    Don't hold your breath, I wouldn't be surprised if that photo is taken down now that we've discovered it.

    Things like that turn unfocussed speculation into probable facts which affects stock prices for a business deal that is yet to be officially announced.
     
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  33. skifree

    skifree Part of the Furniture
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    Has the ACCC has cleared this gross reduction in competition?
     
  34. teckel

    teckel Old n' Crusty
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    Good find!!
     
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  35. Chaeron

    Chaeron One of Us
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    https://www.wsj.com/articles/vail-e...11544533200?ru=yahoo?mod=yahoo_itp&yptr=yahoo

    Vail’s recent acquisition binge and long-term strategy of geographical diversification:

    Vail’s share price has recently dropped 17.9% as it made a loss in its last quarter on lower than usual expected sales.

    Increasing Southern Hemisphere cash flows is going to boost off-season revenues (if only by $12MN).

    WSJ 11 December: “The company on Friday posted a bigger-than-expected quarterly loss, sending its share price plunging 17.9% to $223.25 during the trading session. It was the company’s biggest single-day drop since going public in 1997.

    While Vail usually reports soft numbers during the off-season, investors weren’t prepared for weaker revenue despite healthy sales of season passes for the winter season.

    The stock rebounded about 5% on Monday, and some analysts suggest that Vail’s recent acquisition binge and long-term strategy of geographical diversification will ultimately succeed.

    The season-by-season swings in snowfall coupled with a warming climate trend could make conditions more unpredictable for U.S. ski resorts in the years ahead.

    Vail’s approach has been relatively straightforward. The company has spent about $1.4 billion in recent years in an effort to insulate the operator from too little snow in any one of its markets. With more properties, skiers have more options, and Vail can use its portfolio to entice sales of season passes, particularly those that offer unlimited access to all its resorts.

    In 2010, the Broomfield, Colo.-based company owned just five resorts, four in Colorado. Today, it has 18 properties in 10 states, plus Canada and Australia. About $293 million of the deals—for resorts in Vermont, New Hampshire, Colorado and Washington state—closed in the past year.

    “Weather variability is not going away,” Vail’s chief financial officer, Michael Barkin, said in an interview. “But by reimagining our business, we have reduced risk and created stability in what was thought to be an industry ruled by weather.”

    That pursuit of long-term stability, which Vail has largely achieved in terms of annual revenue, has of late brought volatility to the stock.Analysts have worried at times that Vail paid too much for certain resorts, especially the $1.06 billion the company spent in 2016 for Canadian ski-resort operator Whistler Blackcomb Holdings Inc. The price was at least 11 times Whistler’s annual earnings; by contrast, resorts typically exchange hands at only seven or eight times annual earnings.”
     
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  36. Chaeron

    Chaeron One of Us
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    LOL
     
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  37. Chaeron

    Chaeron One of Us
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    ACCC struggling to find its own bottom with both hands at the moment. I don’t doubt they would approve it though, despite the consolidation.
     
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  38. Corduroyqueen

    Corduroyqueen Hard Yards

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    So what will it mean for management at Falls and Hotham? What happened at Perisher?
     
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  39. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty
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    Nothing.
    Just more crowds.
     
  40. Chaeron

    Chaeron One of Us
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    Biggest change will probably come in their marketing and real estate, rather than operational arms. I’d expect some service provider contracts will also be consolidated.
     
  41. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room
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    Yeah I heard whispers.

    I’d prefer Alterra to buy Buller as the Ikon pass is much better, but overall the Grollos have been great for the mtn, unlike Merlin, so from a consumer perspective I don’t think there’s any great imperative for the mountain to change hands.

    I do think from a competition perspective Buller will need to look to add value to its season pass holders, would be rest if they could get it included in the Ikon pass.
     
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  42. teckel

    teckel Old n' Crusty
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    Pretty sure it's only the lift companies they can buy. The resorts themselves will still be run by the RMBs. Unless they can bribe Daniel Andrews to change the legislation.
     
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  43. Boodwah

    Boodwah One of Us
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    Thats not Hotham
     
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  44. teckel

    teckel Old n' Crusty
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    Nup. It's Feathertop. Taken from Hotham
     
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  45. Corduroyqueen

    Corduroyqueen Hard Yards

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    Yes, it is only a leasehold business, but Ski Lifts do own properties and retail etc.
     
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  46. Bogong

    Bogong Part of the Furniture
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    Actually that may not be Mt Feathertop taken from Hotham. While the view and shape are about right, looking closer there are a few aberrant details, most notably the smaller mountain behind the caption. So it could be a lookalike mountain from elsewhere in the Vail portfolio.
     
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  47. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room
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    Nah it's not. Fooled me until I saw it on my laptop though.
     
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  48. Boodwah

    Boodwah One of Us
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    Nope.
    Wrong shape, another mountain behind the purple.
    Pine trees.
     
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  49. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    Just need the Grollos to give up Buller to Alterra, and we would have a proper duopoly in the Australian ski market.
     
  50. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    Maybe some expansion? Or are they just going to replace old lifts, like they are at Perisher?