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Discussion in 'Weather' started by Majikthise, Jul 24, 2018.
Currently Three(3) watch & act warnings Tallangatta,Strathbogie & Langford.
Watching Strathbogie (Polly McQuinns) from our house with interest. Wind favouring us right now. 27 vehicles there and out of control for over an hour. Bring on the change.
Good luck sastrugi!
Gusterly winds over Westgate bridge just now ....speed limit reduced to 60km/hr.
Highest priority warning issued too..
The change is the worst thing for the fire. Turns the flank into the front. Highly unpredictable fire behaviour on the ground. Very dangerous. Will send the fire to the NE of where it is.
That said, pleased the change is finally hitting Narby.
Reissue of severe wind warning for areas of Gippsland
The Watch and Alert has already swung from SE to NE... however we are west of there so from a selfish, personal point of view I'm still hanging for the change!!
Instigator of the fire perhaps?
Remarkable view of the Gell River fire in Tassie, meandering yesterday & running with the wind today, with smoke plume spreading over Florentine Valley & wider Hobart.
Hopefully the burn pattern is patchy & it's following buttongrass leads, some outstanding country in there.
Rosedale fire about 10k ha
A few vehicles from Forest Fire Management Vic were destroyed, I think due to the wind change
Rosedale fire believed to be deliberately lit.
As was the Strathbogie fire.
What is wrong with these people?
Problems still at this foreground....
I think all they said was that it was suspicious. This can mean a number of things - deliberately lit, unextinguished campfire, cigarette butt, a piece of curved glass, other unknown sources. Remember the poor captain of Murrindindi CFA who was accused of lighting the 2009 Murrindindi Mill fire by channel 9 who put him through a lie detector test, and when he passed it, accused him of cheating. That fire was in fact caused by an electrical transformer. Suspicious is not necessarily arson. It just means they don't yet know the cause.
Would love to find out more info about the Strathbogie fire origin as the Coach Rd where it started is 5km from Polly McQuinns, the closest 'touristy' area (swimming hole where no doubt people were on that stinking hot, windy day last Friday). Perhaps a cig butt out a window on the way there or home?
Very Smokey around my area now due to wind now coming from that easterly direction(strezleckis gippsland)
The emergency warning has now been up all afternoon! Dosent look to promising to get this thing under control by warmer weather on weekend.
The fire keeps moving around with only light to moderate winds!
I’m probably about 30-40km back west of the fire
Hope it all pans out for you and your community @doogasnow
For you personally, I wouldn't be worried unless there's a long and fierce easterly, which is pretty uncommon.
Wed: winds west to south west
Thu: Light winds from east
Fri: Light winds from east.
Then as the high moves away, they'll become northerly then north westerly.
Now, hot weather on its own is not a big issue. It's hot weather with strong winds and low humidity which is the concern.
I'm assuming you're in the Latrobe Valley or even west of it. You'll be safe. The worst that could happen is that the fire gets into an open cut, but they will do everything necessary to prevent that if there's even the slightest danger.
Na the fire won’t get to me. I was just u know how things were in my area and my location in regard to where fire ground is
If that fire got to my area there would be big big problems lol
We see that night time water bombing was undertaken last night to supplement the toil of the night shift workers.....interesting development.
When Team Bears pass around Porapunka to Bright we are quite pleased to see the extensive pine plantation harvesting of recent years...certainly made a decent fire break for the metropolis of Bright.
It’s going to be a long fire season....with no doubt more challenges to come!
Looking back - the 1939 Black Friday fires:
Wodonga forecast has the next 5 days all 40-45. Thankfully the winds should be light and fire danger rating is only very high. No thunder storms for the 1st few days at least
Dreadful fires. Whole families burned on the Acheron Way fleeing the fire on foot after the car broke down Narbethong, one of the lushest greenest places in the state - it's history defined by 2 fires almost 70 years to the day apart. Families at Rubicon unable to get into their bunkers because they'd stored their furniture in there to save it. (Furniture back then was expensive and took a lifetime to accumulate)
For general interest.....
Total fire ban for the whole state of Victoria tomorrow (Tuesday)
which is interesting because only half the state ( excluding melbourne) has a severe or higher rating and there are no major fires going AFAIK. I don't think I've seen that before. scientific predictions not matching gut feel of decision makers? no criticism, just seems to be different
Prolly erring on the side of caution.
And why not.
The problem with common sense is that it’s not common.....in the general public unfortunately.
it's a lot better these days. it used to be really onerous for campers in Vic. there used to be a rule that even a gas bbq had to be within a few metres of a permanent dwelling which excluded tents, caravans etc. ok when risk was seriously high. PITA when TFB called too easily.
Could well also be looking at the bigger picture over the next 4 days.
Too hot for too long.
RE: Images of Tassie's Gell River Fires earlier this month
Anybody come across when this area was last razed?
With a TFBs in operation over Vicco....do Parks Vicco discourage walkers to keep out of volitile areas under their control.There are some spurs and ridgelines that may well be risky after lunch!
I think NE is now categorised as Severe Fire Danger?
Nup. NE, central and all the gippslands are rated very high. Wimmera extreme. North country, north central, mallee & south west severe.
Could be, just never seen it before. Usually get a tfb if the region is severe or extreme (or code red). If there are big fires on already or if most of the state is severe or higher, then the rest of the state might get tfbs too. Never seem it done in tomorrow's situation . The forecast is for crazy high temps but that's not reflected in the fire danger rating. Maybe the rating system needs tweaking
It could well be that the NE is hovering immediately below 'Severe'. Severe does not equate to TFB. Very high does not equate to no TFB. There are various indicators for forest fire and grass fire. These may or may not coincide. I assume the TFB today is to do with winds or humidity. The rating for North Central was upgraded today due to lower forecast humidity. Still severe.
OK so far today. 30 ha at Benloch (north of Lancefield). Lot of DELWP at the Rosedale fire keeping it under control. Other than that ..... and a dangerous animal still at large ......
I'm drivin' in my car..I turn on the radio..
North East is rated severe today but no tfb. (yesterday was tfb but only rated very high)
45 deg C for Wangaratta is seriously crazy!
The fires in Tas, worth reading the whole discourse.
The state of play in Vicco...appears some concerns in Eastern Vic.Areas away from heavy populations atm.Looks DSE has got a reasonable workload ahead of it.
A few problems in alpine areas....
Only significant rain is going to slow things down in Tassie after Monday's lightning:
No amount of resources will be able to get to all the remote fires. Holding some of the highest priorities until rain arrives best case.
RFS has it marked as a ‘complex’ over the border. National Parks responsible agency
Edit- in reply to US post on Vic/NSW border
For folks contemplating AWT between Mt Wills and Thredbo ....advise caution from now on!!
There are some issues not that far away...with the likelihood that dry lightning strikes will start fires and that they will run in whatever direction the wind is blowing in!