1. There's more to this forum than meets the eye!

    We have a vibrant community here conversing about all sorts of non-snow topics such as music, sport, politics and technology. Simply register to reveal all our Après topics or continue browsing and reading as a guest.

    NOTE: This notice may be closed.

    Dismiss Notice

Fire season 18/19

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Majikthise, Jul 24, 2018.

  1. Snowy Joey

    Snowy Joey One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 14, 2014
    Messages:
    756
    Likes Received:
    1,537
    Taken from Gembrook rec reserve
     
    currawong likes this.
  2. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2010
    Messages:
    786
    Likes Received:
    284
    Hopefully everything goes ok for u sj!
    What’s the likelihood or what direction wind do u need for the fire to head towards your place?
    can’t believe how many fires have taken off just in the state park area!!
     
  3. GS

    GS A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 20, 2004
    Messages:
    8,925
    Likes Received:
    8,076
    There were quite a few storm cells rolling through the area, thankfully we were spared other than loss of power for a few hours.
     
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    109,412
    Likes Received:
    46,072
  5. Snowy Joey

    Snowy Joey One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 14, 2014
    Messages:
    756
    Likes Received:
    1,537
    Looks like they almost have Gembrook under control. (Main one now near gilwell park scout camp.) Tynong Tonimbuk area seems to be the biggest problem. Lets hope it doesn't get windy. Asked my sister to take my dog with them if they head out tomorrow. (Just in case)
     
    currawong and Claude Cat like this.
  6. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2004
    Messages:
    40,086
    Likes Received:
    7,624
    Sorry, but this pisses me right off. Emergency warnings designed to send people into panic mode. FFS, there is no wind! It's not hot. The fire ain't going anywhere fast. No homes will burn. No one will die. So much bullshit. So much arse-covering. Asset protection should be simple. But panic panic panic!!!!
     
  7. Snowy Joey

    Snowy Joey One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 14, 2014
    Messages:
    756
    Likes Received:
    1,537
    The warnings do seem OTT with no wind . So much unnecessary hype on the local fb pages too! Hope tomorrow isn't too windy and it should be all good. It is very dry in the bunyip state park atm, plenty of fuel.
     
  8. Snowy Joey

    Snowy Joey One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 14, 2014
    Messages:
    756
    Likes Received:
    1,537
    Next door neighbour took this for me this morning
     
  9. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2004
    Messages:
    40,086
    Likes Received:
    7,624
    That's over 5km away in an easterly(?) direction? Would need a decent easterly wind (not common) to threaten you. Enjoy your weekend :)
     
    Snowy Joey and currawong like this.
  10. currawong

    currawong Old but not so Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 17, 2003
    Messages:
    28,968
    Likes Received:
    11,694
    crying wolf is a big danger. yes, err on the side of caution but an emergency warning to areas not in any credible risk of danger is just stupid. when you tell people to leave, you need them to take you seriously
     
    SuskiQ and Snowy Joey like this.
  11. Snowy Joey

    Snowy Joey One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 14, 2014
    Messages:
    756
    Likes Received:
    1,537
    Thanks. We are ripping the guts out of a pop top caravan and rebuilding it. Great fun. Yep to the north east. Shouldn't be a problem for us. Sad they had to cancel the local plant market (which is a big fundraiser for our local cfa!) and the cockatoo country market. But we dont need extra people in the area.
     
    currawong likes this.
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    109,412
    Likes Received:
    46,072
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    109,412
    Likes Received:
    46,072
  14. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2013
    Messages:
    59,364
    Likes Received:
    33,331
    There is a dark and ominous sky looking east. I’m up at Cardinia Reservoir and caught sight of the pyrocumulus tower out of Richmond and drove out to get a better look

     
    Snowy Joey and Claude Cat like this.
  15. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2004
    Messages:
    40,086
    Likes Received:
    7,624
    I hope you don't mean that you drove from Richmond to Cardinia Reservoir to be a fire tourist and contribute to road congestion in the area, all so that you could get a photo for social media.
     
  16. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2013
    Messages:
    59,364
    Likes Received:
    33,331
    No, I went for a drive in my air conditioned car on quiet roads up to Belgrave because i had this arvo free. If I wanted to do what you were suggesting I would have gone much closer. But thanks for your judgment :rolleyes:
     
  17. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 30, 2015
    Messages:
    1,280
    Likes Received:
    2,975
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    109,412
    Likes Received:
    46,072
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    109,412
    Likes Received:
    46,072
    Spot the fire.

     
    DiscoStuAU and Snowy Joey like this.
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    109,412
    Likes Received:
    46,072
  21. Snowy Joey

    Snowy Joey One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 14, 2014
    Messages:
    756
    Likes Received:
    1,537
    This one's from Belgrave pool fb an hour ago.
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  22. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Feb 29, 2008
    Messages:
    7,970
    Likes Received:
    2,991
    The fire burning near Mayford on Dargo Highplains...has potential to expand big time overnight ....

    The bush is so so dry....even with zero wind the potential to spot is of concern.

    TFB for whole of Vicco today....take care all.

    It better rain soon....or Longweekend will be a shambles with fires running here and there.
     
  23. rime noreason

    rime noreason One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2014
    Messages:
    970
    Likes Received:
    1,943
    Taken last night from near home, north-east Melbourne. Smoke from Buller-Howqua region to the left, Bunyip-Gembrook to the right. No natural vapour cloud in the sky,it’s all smoke. Sir crane and spotter returning from Buller flew over our heads and in to the sunset


    Satellite images from yesterday and today tell the story. I know people who have been evacuated from Bunyip, their house is okay so far but several others lost now. Strong winds forecast for this afternoon, no cool change until Wednesday
     
    GS and Edgecrusher like this.
  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    109,412
    Likes Received:
    46,072
    ABC saying at least 5 buildings lost in the Bunyip fire.
    Jinks Creek Winery destroyed.
     
  25. Snowy Joey

    Snowy Joey One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 14, 2014
    Messages:
    756
    Likes Received:
    1,537
  26. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Feb 29, 2008
    Messages:
    7,970
    Likes Received:
    2,991
    If the change comes as predicted...then unfortunately this Mayford Fire will come steaming up out of the Dargo River heading in the general direction of the Hotham Road ???
     
  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    109,412
    Likes Received:
    46,072
  28. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    29,531
    Likes Received:
    12,201
    There isn't anything to "like' in those images. Grim.
     
    Claude Cat and Snowy Joey like this.
  29. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Feb 29, 2008
    Messages:
    7,970
    Likes Received:
    2,991
    Not sure if Mayford Fire has spotted well out or a separate ignition has taken place.....
    Take care....
     
  30. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Feb 29, 2008
    Messages:
    7,970
    Likes Received:
    2,991
    Govt app. Somewhat confusing .....
    Hotham Airport atm. NNW 20km/hr gusting to 30
    22 deg C. R/H less 40%
     
  31. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Feb 29, 2008
    Messages:
    7,970
    Likes Received:
    2,991
    A bit more context......
     
    #381 Ubiquitous Steve, Mar 4, 2019
    Last edited: Mar 4, 2019
  32. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Feb 29, 2008
    Messages:
    7,970
    Likes Received:
    2,991
    Interesting article ??
     
  33. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2002
    Messages:
    56,505
    Likes Received:
    23,424
    Not a good situation at all, will burn a lot of land before these fires are out.

    Stay safe people
     
    Claude Cat, GS and Ubiquitous Steve like this.
  34. kylep

    kylep One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2012
    Messages:
    2,475
    Likes Received:
    3,100
    As far as the article goes, I just wish the media would leave people who are grieving alone for a while and deal with what they need to deal with. He has a lot to work through.

    In terms of the maps - the red polygons appear to be the area the IMT have selected to trigger warnings - generally encompassing all dwellings and other buildings that they want to send messages (or indeed Police/SES etc to doorknock) - or those using the apps. Given the location, it's easy to understand why this is isolated (as far as visually on the map) from the fire area itself.
     
    currawong, Snowy Joey and GS like this.
  35. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2004
    Messages:
    40,086
    Likes Received:
    7,624
    Too much bullshit over these fires. Creating too much drama, fear, panic. FFS, a couple of smaller fires and they carry on like this. The CFA has incident controllers covering arses, the media loves stirring shit up, and the innocent public are in a blind panic. It should all be handled so differently. It won't be long before the public tires of it all, and when disaster happens for real, it will be a case of the boy who cried wolf. :(

    Spoke with friends at Yinnar last night. They were not concerned in the least and regarded the whole thing as a circus. Their reaction was the correct one for where they lived.
     
    currawong and Ubiquitous Steve like this.
  36. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2003
    Messages:
    16,029
    Likes Received:
    7,092
    CFA on the radio last confirmed they were over-egging the risk omelette with regards to warnings, and makes no apologies.
     
  37. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2004
    Messages:
    40,086
    Likes Received:
    7,624
    All because of the royal commission. At a community session I went to when they were setting it up, some of the commissioners sat up the front of these sessions, and the public raised their concerns. Some said "no one warned us! No one knocked on our door". I raged. Me: "You were warned for 4 days prior". "But I don't read newspapers or watch TV. Some one should have told me". :headbang: :headbang: :headbang: :headbang:
    When will people ever learn to take personal responsibility?
    Police and SES have better things to do than doorknock.
     
  38. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Feb 29, 2008
    Messages:
    7,970
    Likes Received:
    2,991
    Media cannot market the less than sexy fire prevention activities ..

    The single dozer driver and his offsider clearing a fire access trail is not riveting viewing for the public!

    We must focus more on our fire prevention works that may precede the fire season by six months.
    Part of our fire prevention works obviously involve FRB’s:whistle:
     
  39. GS

    GS A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 20, 2004
    Messages:
    8,925
    Likes Received:
    8,076
    FWIW, our Vic Emergency app is beeping at us every hour or so, sure it could be annoying if you let it. I just glance at it to see if any new fires have started that might affect us, or whether existing fire conditions have changed and pose a greater risk to us.

    Probably better they churn out more info than less, just a matter of sorting through the noise to determine what is relevant to yourself.
     
  40. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2004
    Messages:
    40,086
    Likes Received:
    7,624
    Yeah. Looking at the houses burnt so far .... They seem to be all directly abutting bush with no clear barrier. I also wonder if their yards were in a real mess. And I bet that no one was at home to put out the little fire that was the start of their home being consumed. Because no one had told them to clean up their land before the start of the fire season, but you can bet your last dollar that people were there well before there was any danger, screaming "evacuate, evacuate".
     
    Ubiquitous Steve likes this.
  41. GS

    GS A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 20, 2004
    Messages:
    8,925
    Likes Received:
    8,076
    After Black Saturday and the associated panic by authorities to be seen to do something, a reasonably decent chunk of forest behind us was subject to a FRB. It still hadn't seen any rain and went up like a bomb. The easterly wind was blowing it towards us and the next moment they rolled in the heavy equipment cutting fire breaks as they lost control. Thankfully it was stopped but the 'cool burn' incinerated the forest and very nearly us.

    Damned if they do, damned if they don't.

    Personally I chose to live here and would rather take on the risk of lightning strikes igniting fires than a FRB.
     
    Ubiquitous Steve and dawooduck like this.
  42. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Feb 29, 2008
    Messages:
    7,970
    Likes Received:
    2,991
    Team Bears also see this article as relevant...it’s worth a read...
     
    teckel likes this.
  43. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Feb 29, 2008
    Messages:
    7,970
    Likes Received:
    2,991
    $1 for $24 gain!
    Sounded good in the 1990’s
     
  44. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Feb 29, 2008
    Messages:
    7,970
    Likes Received:
    2,991
    Hang in there folk down in Dargo!Shit that looks like a lot of fire to your west!
    Hopefully that 747 is flying low!
     
  45. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2003
    Messages:
    16,029
    Likes Received:
    7,092
    And if my memory is correct after ash wednesday in 83 a reduction burn in fairhaven or maybe aireys that torched a dozen houses and that was then end reduction burns in the 80s and 90s
     
  46. GS

    GS A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 20, 2004
    Messages:
    8,925
    Likes Received:
    8,076
    And then there was that 2005 Prom one that got away.......it certainly reduced the fuel loads I guess.
     
  47. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2004
    Messages:
    40,086
    Likes Received:
    7,624
    Very easy to be critical of FRBs. The 'window' is tiny and difficult to assess. If you get it wrong by the smallest of margins, you risk either a) fire getting out of control, or b) nothing burning at all.
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  48. kylep

    kylep One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2012
    Messages:
    2,475
    Likes Received:
    3,100
    Yep, and even when you get it 'right' there can be parts of both involved! Much work to get the required crews in place based on trying to pick the right timing as well.

    Meanwhile, Nat Parks look to be pretty active with HRs around the outskirts of Sydney today
     
    Undies and teckel like this.
  49. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2003
    Messages:
    16,029
    Likes Received:
    7,092
    the burning window on private land is very, very short too. After fire season ends at end of April its all gotta be done in 6 weeks or its too wet typically.
     
    Rabid K9 and Rush like this.
  50. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2003
    Messages:
    16,029
    Likes Received:
    7,092
    thunderstorms lighting up central vic, just got warning