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Fire-season 2015-2016

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Oct 5, 2015.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  3. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    yeah its gunna be a doozy
     
  4. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Much too early for this!
     
  5. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    the soil top few inches and even forest litter are currently dry in central vic
     
  6. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    might just be me but i have not seen much backburn through winter around the northern parts of sydney? I'm assuming theres a legitimate reason for this?
     
  7. Legs Akimbo

    Legs Akimbo Grumblebum Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think it's you. I have noticed a few burns.
     
  8. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's hard to backburn when spring gets shorter.
     
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  9. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    yeah fair call. fingers crossed we stay fire free!
     
  10. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    If I have to have bushfires i'd rather have them now than in Jan/Feb.
     
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  11. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    According to the BOM - Australia's bushfire seasons

    Spring is quite normal for fire across much of the South East - especially eastern NSW. The worst Blue Mountain fires have all occurred in Spring - and early Spring at that. Victoria is generally more towards Summer. But with a dry winter this year an early Spring fire season is not unusual for southern Australia. El Nino is a normal cyclical event.
     
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  12. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    October is generally peak fire season for NSW.
     
  13. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    yep i recall once driving from whitsundays to melbourne in October and had devastating drought in QLD, fire in NSW and floods in Vic
     
  14. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The most destructive fires in the BMs have occurred with fire index <75. In 2013 houses were lost in Mt Wilson where the fire index was measured at about 50.
    Wrt to HR plenty of data around now pointing to the biggest bang for buck delivered in the immediate envelope around development.
    Also worth remembering that in any bushfire ember attack and subsequent building to building transmission is a fair contributor to property loss, and building to bush transmission is often overlooked in the popular mind set. A Building burns hotter and for longer than the bush.
     
  15. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    is that why logs and hollow trees continue to burn for weeks????
    but I can see your reasoning...cos its got more dry fuel....

    nasty day in Kyneton fire trucks are gone somewhere....and its very gusty strong winds actually blowing pedestrians around...shit fire other side of freeway>>>>:eek:
     
  16. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    yep and while logs and hollows will continue to smoke within a burnt landscape, a building can (if not often) be alight from ember attack within an unburnt landscape.. radiant heat from building> radiant heat from bush, buildings then a subsequent source of embers and redirection of fire .
    risk of building to building transmission very high within distances <6m.
     
  17. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Bad fire burning near Lancefield according to the CFA. Shocker of a day out there - visibility is poor with all the raised dust around.

    What happened to spring? We've gone straight from winter to summer.
     
  18. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    the IOD is what happened to spring, flicked like a switch.
     
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  19. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    yep can see fire cloud over towards Lancefield its stoking and spreading unfortunately...

    wind may have eased a little ,,,as Hermon said very nasty outside I doubt helitankers can go up in these winds...
     
  20. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    They should get the DC-10 down from NSW to fight it:
     
  21. Angus_McCrory

    Angus_McCrory Old n' Crusty

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    What's the point in dumping water on water though o_O
     
  22. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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  23. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    hopefully CFA can hang in there with helicopter support ...must be bumpy flying them helicopters..
    goodluck...Kyneton has had wind change we think..:thumbs:
     
  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    showing up well on the radar.
    When that wind change gets there shortly, watch out!

    [​IMG]
     
  26. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Latest radar image loop suggests the Lancefield fire flared up badly in the past 30 minutes (probably the change). Not good.
     
  27. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Claude Cat likes this.
  28. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    DC 10 as well
    [​IMG]
     
  29. Angus_McCrory

    Angus_McCrory Old n' Crusty

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    Would be impressed if it did scoop tank loading.
     
  30. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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  31. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    So both the aircraft full with water?...
     
  32. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Going by the flight path of the C-130: Yes. The DC-10 is flying low and fast too at only 10000ft.
     
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  34. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    You'd assume so....
    takes 8 mins to refill the DC-10
     
  35. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Team Bears like DC10 and Hercules C130....should be a good test...can they work till dark..
     
  36. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    How many airports are there that are equipped to refill these things with water?
     
  37. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Seems like lots of money being thrown at these fires and in the end they just keep burning until the weather turns.
     
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    An emergency warning has now been issued for Koorlong, in the state's far north.

    A fast-moving, out of control bushfire is travelling in a northerly direction from Koorlong State Forest towards Twenty First Street.

    Spotfires and ember attacks are starting up to three kilometres ahead of the main fire.

    The CFA has advised residents to leave before conditions became too dangerous.


    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/v...-the-state-20151006-gk2jog.html#ixzz3nlZIghWQ
     
  39. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Not sure... the hoses and coupling are standard, the tanks etc onsite, not sure how common they are..
     
  40. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Claude Cat likes this.
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    C130 done it's run and heading back to Richmond?
     
  42. currawong

    currawong Old but not so Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    The abc website said the plane was carrying retardant, not water.
     
  43. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I think the retardant is mixed with water.
    Stops evaporation
     
  44. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Dropped to 2000' and 104 kts. at 17.23pm
    Up to 14,000 now
     
  45. currawong

    currawong Old but not so Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    life and property protection measures are often successful even if extinguishing the fire isn't. I don't think we can give up on those

    Then politically it is important to be seen to be trying. There is a lot of flack if they sitback and watch bushland (and wildlife) burn, communities lose tourist dollars, people struggle with smoke and stress. Some hard nosed assessment might be needed, but I think it's inevitable that there will be more spent than a cold blooded analysis would justify
     
  46. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Also they have the budget...so spend it I say.
    No point saving money that has been put aside for a purpose.
     
  47. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The question is partly - are we going about fire management the right way. New evidence points to much of Australia being one fully managed landscape - with virtually no wilderness before 1788. The whole Great Dividing Range was burnt by man on a regular basis. The ground scape under the trees was filled with grassy meadows. Do we need to return to such a managed landscape. It would have evolved into such over some 10000 years since the last ice age. The bush is now devolving back into an unruly scrub that has burned at random over the past two centuries.
     
    #47 rocketboy, Oct 6, 2015
    Last edited: Oct 6, 2015
  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    The DC10 is almost home too.
     
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Home lost near Lancefield
    [​IMG]

    Emergency Warning has now been issued for Kerrisdale, south-east of Seymour.

    Fire crews have been unable to bring a bushfire under control, and it is now heading in the direction of King Parrot Creek Road.

    Residents living in Qamby Road, Fairview Road, King Parrot Creek Road and Wentworth Road have been advised they may experience spot fires.

    The CFA has warned residents of Tallarook and Kerrisdale to leave before conditions become too dangerous.

    Relief centres are open at the Seymour Aquatic Centre (Corner of Chittick and Pollard Street) and Yea Recreation Reserve (18 Snodgrass Street).

    [​IMG]
     
  50. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    No. There is no evidence to suggest that Aboriginals regularly conducted burns in mountainous areas with steep and challenging topography with limited access and terrain traps. There is evidence that Aboriginals left the mountains in times of high fire danger.

    Yes, there were large areas of Australia that were 'pasture ready' at the time of White settlement (e.g. Mitchell's exploration of Western Victoria) but you can't extrapolate that to 'the whole Great Dividing Range'.