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Fire-season 2015-2016

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Oct 5, 2015.

  1. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thoughts are with you and your family mate - terrible stuff. Hopefully you are all safe and sound though.
     
  2. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    :(:(:(:(
     
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  3. Tanuki

    Tanuki A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    cheers TW, all safe and sound. Working our way through it. Amazed that no loss of of life considering the extent of the fires,very very lucky it approached during the day
     
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  4. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    sorry for your loss tanuki....i do think 2009 taught us people matter more than insurable property, no matter the memories in the timber and the tin......and when the evacuation call goes out people actually do it now. not to underestimate the cfa and what they did on the weekend, but wye and sep creeks were basically indefensible. ive camped there for 15 years and stayed in a range of houses up and down the hill and have thought its a matter of when and not if it goes. that mix of bush and beach and its contained topography is its its greatest feature.....but whenever the siren has rung out when im out on a wave and the kids are somewhere else, its smoke ive looked for. we are due there in 2 weeks or so and im either expecting more fire, or in peverse wye style (wye work? wye worry? wye not?) it will probably be rain and landslides that are the issue.......
     
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  5. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tragic events but its only Dec .....unfortunately worse is yet to come say Bears.....

    Condolances to all affected and heaps of praise to all emergency personel.:(:(:(
     
  6. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    yep steve, far from over. just the end of the beginning
     
  7. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    just talking to a friend of ours - his brother is a full time resident of Wye but this year they were having a big family reunion with all the brothers at my friend's place in Hawthorn. He didn't even take any valuables when he left on Christmas morning as they all still thought they'd be ok.

    Fortunately he took his dog, who is his best mate.

    Fire burned down the house next door but luckily he had a bit of a firebreak around his place as he has a bit of land and his house was saved.

    Other friends were renting a house at Wye, ( http://www.tuckerhousewyeriver.com ) supposed to be in on Boxing Day but it went, even though it had all the highest BAL ratings. Brand new, beautiful architect designed home.

    We nearly bought in Wye back in 1998, but the extra drive around the GOR on a Friday night plus lack of town water and bushfire risk made us choose something a bit closer so we are at Fairhaven. Still, we were all pretty nervous on Christmas Day about that wind change and what might happen if the rain didn't eventuate. And it definitely ain't over yet....
     
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  8. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    hazardous topography trumps good design every time..
     
  9. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    houses/ land cost a fortune in wye. every time we are there we join the 'ice cream lickers' (real estate term for holiday punters) and dream away but as yet havent taken the plunge as we struggle to get up to our farm often enough. the contained topography and only a couple of features make it a great place for the kids to grow up......its paradise to me - waves, hills, tracks, one pub, one cafe. what else do you need? one day maybe......
     
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  10. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    In 1998 you could buy down the West Coast for a pittance. Not in Lorne so much, as that was already popular, but Wye, Kennet, Aireys/Fairhaven you could get a very comfortable beach house with great views on 1000 sq m block for under $200K. Glad we got in early.
     
  11. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    The Otway fires are ganna tie up some resources on severe fire weather days to come unfortunately....:whistle:

    crunch will come when we have 3 major events across Victoria....in which case we will be hoping NSW/QLD has got additional resources...looks like WA and SA will be unable to provide any support with their run of fires already....

    Aerial support just cannot be provided every where on the same day.....:(

    looks like remainder of fire season will be a challenge....:eek::eek:
     
    mr likes this.
  12. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    sticks fingers in ears and goes lalalalala very loudly :)

    .....then again we bought a house in brunswick for similar money in 2000 so we did orright
     
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  13. gettingtooold

    gettingtooold One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Water bombers flying overhead all day on the way to Wye/Sep. Big effort I think before the hot conditions coming up.
     
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  14. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    bought one in Kew in 1994 as well :p :D
     
    mr likes this.
  15. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    im not sure we are expecting the big wind before the coolth this time at least, a troughier system change rather than frontal....but then warm again quickly
     
  16. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    was up at the farm today in central vic and it was mega-crispy underfoot
     
  17. gettingtooold

    gettingtooold One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bombers going all day. A big chance of major probs tomorrow not only from the North wind but when it changes. Hate this time of year and the conditions. Good friend called us Xmas night at 11pm with all kids on the beach and most of the Lorne locals shitting bricks while the visitors were carrying on as if it was a bit of a novelty. Take care everyone in the area and don't underestimate the risk if visiting. It may be very, very serious.
     
  18. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    yeah they've upped the call on wye and kennett again
     
  19. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    next week set to go from low thirties to high thirties in NE(Bears use Wangaratta as their reference) with little rain but will be subject to light winds so further hot weather phase coming up....o_O
     
  20. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    CFA web site shows Mitta Mitta Omeo Highway has a fire...hopefully crews will deal with this quickly and not allow it to get out of there...:cool:

    hopefully all is good as its marked as safe I see...:):)
     
  21. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Confusing web site...something happening around back of Mt Wills ...NNW of Glen Wills ..
    this could be a problem for anybody on Alpine Walking Track..i would keep watching this one ......????
    Advise message only....:oops: issued for G.Wills.G.Valley Shannonvale &Sunnyside......
     
    #221 Ubiquitous Steve, Jan 13, 2016
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2016
  22. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    choppers still working the wye fire today. and in wye fashion, its raining
     
  23. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    looks like we are still dodging bullets with favourable weather conditions following immediately after extreme fire weather conditions....lots of crews doing excellent work all over but we are still waiting for the nasty weather that WA has been subject too with 3 days of unrelenting hot/dry and windy conditions..its.only mid January.now so we sit and study BOM forecasts every week:thumbs::thumbs::thumbs:....Bears keeping fingers crossed that our luck holds out for this fire season.....too many fires of high intensity in this decade already....
     
  24. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    TFB declared for at least the central areas today, with warm weather then a sharp change between 5-7pm this evening.

    What I cannot understand, is why people continue to ignore TFB's when camping. Seriously. Last week there were 4 fires that required extinguishing in a campsite not far from Wahalla, including, believe it or not, a freaking campfire. Who the hell needs a campfire going on a TFB day? These must be the same people who leave kids in cars on hot days.
     
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  25. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    2 feet and offshore at wye, tfb today
     
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  26. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Need it for the billy and to cook breakfast bro.
    Obviously up there, they haven't tuned into the radio to hear that it's a TFB. Only thing that matters is getting up into the bush to escape the city. There's no point doing so if it isn't the true camping experience.
     
  27. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    campfires are good but not on days of TFB...

    that's complying with the law but more importantly one should be aware of the likelihood of a fire escaping and its possibility to run quickly in dry bush...its now the time of year when even Team Bears see the forecast for the next day and decide that several buckets of water are required to extinguish their splendid overnight campfire.....firstly by raking out the coals and letting the heat out before applying sufficient water...that's after making sure where you have your fire has no combustible material for a good distance....

    campfires are good in that they reduce fuel load in adjacent areas.....but with any fire comes the responsibility that it stays there and will not ignite on extreme days that may follow...it is now the time of year to be mindful that dry turbulent winds can lead to escapes...

    sometimes Bears want cup of tea on TFB day so we use gas stove to boil kettle on cleared ground or in middle of road or stream or on rock slab etc with water bucket nearby and remember that stoves tip over so on TFB we never boil kettle without being right beside it....probably we brake the law here in that we are using a naked flame...:love::love::love:

    we also see that it takes many buckets of water to extinguish 100pc so having cleared ground around proximity is a necessity but if you aint by a river then u had better have a smaller fire...
     
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    TBF bans for tomorrow.

    [​IMG]

    Also looks like there's a dangerous fire on the Mornington peninsula - Crib point, Stony Point and HMAS Cerberus all threatened.
     
  29. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    much action up here at Kyneton at moment....hopefully crews get on top of this fast....much smoke visible from were I am working....:( winds are moderate,its hot and dry....
    wind sock on helipad is moving around and is taught...wind from NW I think...
     
    #229 Ubiquitous Steve, Jan 19, 2016
    Last edited: Jan 19, 2016
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Showing up on the BOM radar

    [​IMG]
     
  32. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Grass fire hey? Bush lies to the east no?
     
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Bush all-round. Macedon is quite heavily forested.
     
  34. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    There are even snowgums up and around the summit cross.
    Not my own pic (last time I was up there in June it was a whiteout), but a good indication of the vegetation up on top:
    [​IMG]
     
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  35. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    wos happening to our sth.....wos them Tasmanians doing ;)

    fire fire every where according to the news.....:tany:

    better get those Mitta Mitta boys to oversee the fire crisis....:whistle::whistle:
     
  36. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Does anyone have figures on how much area was burnt in spring backburning operations 2015? Seriously, everyone knew an El Nino was forecast and had manifested itself by that stage, the amount of fuel-reduction burning should have been increased as much as possible to help offset the potential dangers.
     
  37. derwent

    derwent One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    DSE are gun shy with spring back burning..... for good reason
     
  38. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Personal opinion - DSE should not be allowed to light a fuel-reduction burn ever again. They shouldnt have been allowed to light or oversee any in the first place.
     
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  39. kylep

    kylep One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Firstly, back burning is a containment tactic for an already burning fire.

    Secondly, hazard reduction burns are generally limited by available windows of appropriate weather and available resources, not a choice of doing more or less.
     
  40. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    So you are saying there are no targets for fuel reduction burns, it's just a case of if the weather is good?
     
  41. Charlie

    Charlie Still the most depraved poster here Ski Pass: Gold

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    That makes sense!
     
  42. kylep

    kylep One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    There are targets but the weather and fuel moisture limits how much can actually be completed. Small scale burns can push the boundaries a little but when a burn spans days and can't be 100% blacked out, the conditions have to be right for the burn period plus the following period. Reigniting are often when things go pear shaped.
     
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  43. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The efficacy of a HR is paramount. Efficacy is governed by the weather and fuel conditions. Ignore those and you have just pissed a lot of resources into the wind for no benefit and indeed may have made the risk worse. Blanket, or heaven forbid, enforceable targets, are a greater risk than no targets at all.
     
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  44. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Climate change is making those available windows shorter as well.
     
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  45. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is it? Or is it just changing the times when they can happen? Government departments are so close-minded.
     
  46. Boodwah

    Boodwah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  47. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bears like the tactic of raking around large trees trying to keep fires from gaining access to hollow bowl or spreading upwards....we thought our efforts at Camp Stoneytops were a bit silly but this is exactly what some Parks Staff are doing in Tasmania in select areas....

    as Boodwah says its a grave problem.......our Forest Structure and Diversity are changing....fire intensity to severe and the frequency of wildfires to high it appears...

    forests don't manage themselves and intervention and management is essential....

    In Vic the DSE have a very difficult job in fire prevention and suppression.....
    but Bears believe they are skilled and dedicated ....their job is not easy...somebody is always able to criticize after an incident of an escape from a fuel reduction burn....
     
  48. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    wasn't too far off, my theory of risk indication for summer 2016 is to look at the soil moisture anomaly progressively sept- nov...I suspect just as I figure the september is a good indicator of risk for NSW, Oct may fit better for Vic and Nov for Tas ????

    All the main fires of the summer fit pretty damn well on upper alone.
     
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  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  50. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    shit
    That seems like yesterday.