Frequent Flyer Points following COVID

gareth_oau

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OK I was bored (and curious).

I have around 1 million QFF points, so plugged iin a Perth to Vancouver trip for January 2022 using premium economy.

555,000 points :O

Pre-COVID that would have been circa 230,000 points.

Assuming international, non essential travel starts (let's say mid 2022(??)); I wonder how long it will be before FF points value returns to something like historical normal?

(and also noted that the trip can actually be booked, but would be something along the lines of Perth-Adelaide-Sydney-LA-Seattle-Vancouver).
 

Mogul

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They're a liability for the airlines more than can remove from the books the better for them. That liability would have increased in such a way over the last 18 months that it may be impacting their ability to borrow more cash. Make FF flights more expensive and bingo liability is reduced.
 

trappers

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I don't think honouring "free" flights when for the last 2 - 3 years their revenue is materially down, is considered as exploiting disaster
Yep. Two way street, is not like the airlines are making money hand over fist right now! I’d prefer airlines to have some profit so they can continue to maintain their assets properly…
 
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CarveMan

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I’m wondering how long Etihad will maintain my gold status.

That said the only reason I got to gold is they did super extra triple status credits for our trip home from Europe in March last year.
 
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gareth_oau

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To encourage flying, airfares and reward programswill need to return to normalilty as soon as possible. The sooner planes are full the better for business.

I'm sure they will have all sorts or analyis going forwards working out when
 

gareth_oau

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Yep. Two way street, is not like the airlines are making money hand over fist right now! I’d prefer airlines to have some profit so they can continue to maintain their assets properly…
Nikki has already said that she has no intention of flying on those first planes back in the air and wants to see a few miles under their belts beforehand LOL
 

gareth_oau

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They're a liability for the airlines more than can remove from the books the better for them. That liability would have increased in such a way over the last 18 months that it may be impacting their ability to borrow more cash. Make FF flights more expensive and bingo liability is reduced.
FF programs are good business for airlines, normally

 
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stallie

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I noticed similar on EK.

There will not need to be any encouragement for people to fly. There is huge demand for tickets when borders open -I’ve seen seen this first hand where load factors in and out and within countries that have vaxed and open borders are very high. Not a spare seat.
There will be enough bums on seats and thus the airlines don’t want to give seats to FF which although reduce a liability are no income. Second is that they are trying to balance supply and demand. It’s difficult to balance the restarting of thousands of crew and aircraft to sync with the demand. You are either slightly behind the wave - and lose market share - or ahead and be empty and loose more $$. I guess if the latter you can fill the seats with FF but you only know that when it’s happening, not 18 months out.
Airlines need cash now. You only want FFs in seats that would outside have been empty. The feeling is that they are predicting that there will not be a lots of empty seats for quite some time.
 
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Sandy

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I’m wondering how long Etihad will maintain my gold status.

That said the only reason I got to gold is they did super extra triple status credits for our trip home from Europe in March last year.
Depends on airline policy, which you should look up.

Delta effectively froze status in 2020, so my status carried over into 2021. Delta also has carry over status, where if you fall short on one status, difference in status points carries over into the next year.
For example, I hit platinum three weeks ago (75k status points), and the flights I have for the rest of the year will end up getting me to about 110k, but Diamond is 125k. I will get around 35k carry over status points into next year, which will leave me only 15k short of Gold for 2023. They also have a +50% & +75% deal going right now on status points.

If your airline FF is screwing you on FF & status points over the last 18 months, I'd be changing to airlines with better program, since you now have nothing so you have nothing to lose.

e.g.
My Qantas FF points expired 3 months ago. My Delta FF points never expire. I'll probably start using American Airlines instead of Qantas.

If Virgin Australia is also doing the same, then sign up with Delta, as they are Virgin Velocity partner FF (Delta Skymiles)
 
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Sandy

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OK I was bored (and curious).

I have around 1 million QFF points, so plugged iin a Perth to Vancouver trip for January 2022 using premium economy.

555,000 points :O

Pre-COVID that would have been circa 230,000 points.

Assuming international, non essential travel starts (let's say mid 2022(??)); I wonder how long it will be before FF points value returns to something like historical normal?

(and also noted that the trip can actually be booked, but would be something along the lines of Perth-Adelaide-Sydney-LA-Seattle-Vancouver).

They won't. Bit like fuel prices.
I've been looking at various flights out into the middle of 2022.
At least for Japan/US, the FF points booking are already returning to "normal"..... or should I say for like $$ cost, they are returning to normal. (e.g. May, 122,000 FF points for Delta)

I think flights out of Australia are high (FF), because you can only get flights for $3500-$8000, since only full price premium economy (if lucky) or business class are available. They then peg the FF points needed at these high numbers. (500k is pretty normal)
 

teleroo

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OK I was bored (and curious).

I have around 1 million QFF points, so plugged iin a Perth to Vancouver trip for January 2022 using premium economy.

555,000 points :O

Pre-COVID that would have been circa 230,000 points.

Assuming international, non essential travel starts (let's say mid 2022(??)); I wonder how long it will be before FF points value returns to something like historical normal?

(and also noted that the trip can actually be booked, but would be something along the lines of Perth-Adelaide-Sydney-LA-Seattle-Vancouver).
Should just buy one of those business class sky beds QF putting up for sale for FFP and stick it in your garage. Get Nikki to bring you champers and a few reheated meals for a day and same same.
 

piolet

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I noticed similar on EK.

There will not need to be any encouragement for people to fly. There is huge demand for tickets when borders open -I’ve seen seen this first hand where load factors in and out and within countries that have vaxed and open borders are very high. Not a spare seat.
There will be enough bums on seats and thus the airlines don’t want to give seats to FF which although reduce a liability are no income. Second is that they are trying to balance supply and demand. It’s difficult to balance the restarting of thousands of crew and aircraft to sync with the demand. You are either slightly behind the wave - and lose market share - or ahead and be empty and loose more $$. I guess if the latter you can fill the seats with FF but you only know that when it’s happening, not 18 months out.
Airlines need cash now. You only want FFs in seats that would outside have been empty. The feeling is that they are predicting that there will not be a lots of empty seats for quite some time.
This in spades.
Demand will be ridiculous when permitted.
Airlines are like a sprung steel trap with execs trying to keep a balance between nothing and max...

Singair a380s are all out of Alice Springs storage I believe.
 

trappers

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I’m not sure people in Australia are aware how rapidly the world is returning to normal. I have multiple colleagues who are travelling in and out of us at a whim no quarantine, travelling throughout Europe without a problem with a vaccine passport… we are an isolationist aberration at the moment and it is getting embarrassing…
 

CarveMan

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I’m not sure people in Australia are aware how rapidly the world is returning to normal. I have multiple colleagues who are travelling in and out of us at a whim no quarantine, travelling throughout Europe without a problem with a vaccine passport… we are an isolationist aberration at the moment and it is getting embarrassing…
Could not agree more with every word of that post.

Is your inability to travel for business going to have long term repercussions? Are you being left behind in any way?
 
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VSG

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I’m not sure people in Australia are aware how rapidly the world is returning to normal. I have multiple colleagues who are travelling in and out of us at a whim no quarantine, travelling throughout Europe without a problem with a vaccine passport… we are an isolationist aberration at the moment and it is getting embarrassing…
*Cough* The United States of America aint so lucky, bud.
 

trappers

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Could not agree more with every word of that post.

Is your inability to travel for business going to have long term repercussions? Are you being left behind in any way?
This is not about me specifically, and it is probably off topic in this thread, but the short answer is, yes and no.

For me personally? Absolutely. It is very hard to grow in a global organisation when others are having in person meetings, networking and undertaking informal relationship building when I am stuck behind a webacam on MS Teams.

In addition, I have currently got 2 papers accepted for a conference which was initially in Singapore but has been moved to UAE. That conference now requires in person presentation. I'll have to get one of my colleagues from another location (probably UK or US) to present on my behalf as I am unable to leave the country.

On the flip side, a lot of the day to day stuff can be done by Teams and we have now got some good processes in place ... but it does mean that I am normally working now from ~7pm to 10pm Tue/Wed/Thur. as this is the only time that there is overlap between US & UK and AUS. I have cut this back to try and only do it Tue/Thur. In the past I would spend 2 weeks in US 2 or 3 times a year and a week or two in UK as well. Much of the work I am now trying to get done in 3hr sessions 2-3 times a week would have been done in these trips.

It is impacting my work-life balance, relationships, and is just generally ... shit. Especially when (and trust me this happens) in meetings people OS make fun of Australia and laugh at us trapping our citizens in lockdowns while simultaneously not having good vaccine rollouts... right or wrong, that is how we are being percieved, and it is embarassing.
 

Sandy

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I’m not sure people in Australia are aware how rapidly the world is returning to normal. I have multiple colleagues who are travelling in and out of us at a whim no quarantine, travelling throughout Europe without a problem with a vaccine passport… we are an isolationist aberration at the moment and it is getting embarrassing…
I'm in the US right now.....

Most things are almost back to normal. Unvaccinated people are getting infected in their droves, but vaccinated people are just doing regular things... Lots of adds for movies on at theatres.
 

VSG

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My expat friends in the US are delighted they weathered Covid there and not here.
Haave a look at the stats.

I take your point, most likely centred around lockdowns, or lack of. But the rate of infection spiralled, per capita. Even with a decent immunization rate. You cannot vaccinate for stoopid.

 

CarveMan

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Haave a look at the stats.

I take your point, most likely centred around lockdowns, or lack of. But the rate of infection spiralled, per capita. Even with a decent immunization rate. You cannot vaccinate for stoopid.

US is a big country and it depends on where you were.
 
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LMB

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That's a rare commodity over in the East. Esp Sydney and region.
Ha!
Lowest vax rates in Aus is in WA where Trappers is. But if you are motivated…

we need to get jabbing…
Everyone! Let’s get back to living in the world.
 

LMB

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Serious????
According to what was posted earlier … 19% fully Vaxxed.

Up until the delivery of Pfizer a week or so ago it was rarer than hens teeth. The drop off on AZ vaccination appointments was similar to the rest of the country thanks to messaging. And without a viable alternative…well the results speak for themselves. Been a big upswing in jabbing since the new batch of Pfizer became available but appointments for it are still months out.

We need Aus wide high Vax rates to get us to 70 then 80 so we can open internal borders. AND so we can rejoin the world.
 
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stallie

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Air travel in Europe right now for many airlines is only 10% down on 2019 levels. I watched 6 Ryan air flights at the holding point just last week. The skies over Europe were very busy. It's still very much country to country bubbles but what's running is going gangbusters.
At this stage you also need a PCR on some airlines. Easy peasy, just turn up to the airport 2 hours early in some places and get the results in 1 hour (and that's a full PCR, not the rapid antigen).
And it's all because they vaxed. Meanwhile in the backwater.... The vaxing (too little too late) is going well now, but I fear we'll struggle to get to the 70% mark. There aren't enough people that really care. Not everybody wants to go overseas. They still think it's a disease ridden hellhole out there.

Some countries about to stop publishing the positive cases - instead just monitor the data for hospitalisation rate for their health response.
 

VSG

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Exactly and if those points arent worth anything to the consumer, why would banks pay big bucks to the airlines to be a part of it?

I guess this analysis sort of, kind of supports your argument.

quote:

Frequent flyer programs generate revenue from selling points to third parties, and in order for this to be a profitable exercise, the program needs to generate enough interest from partners who see the benefits of the airline’s points to its own customers. And from the airlines perspective, the more members it has in its loyalty program, the more it can charge for its points.

Therefore, the benefits that flow from frequent flyer programs are in a way circular. A strong product offering by an airline will entice people to join and become active in the airline’s frequent flyer program, while a strong program with many redemption options along with aspirational redemptions will entice members to fly with the airline. The two are intrinsically linked.
 

VSG

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and more:

Given the profit potential of frequent flyer programs, and the greater digitisation and the shift of the economy and business to accruing analytics or ‘big data’ on their customers, their future should remain strong.

From their early inceptions as simply a way to reward flyers for their loyalty and provide a method to fill seats that would otherwise be left empty, frequent flyer programs have morphed into large scale loyalty programs with a myriad of partners and a variety of rewards on offer, including the most recent addition to the Qantas program, Afterpay.

But still today, there are some limitations that prevent these programs from being even larger, but with some exciting technology around the corner, many of these limitations may soon be a thing of the past.

The most common obstacle faced by many would-be partners of programs is the lack of required IT infrastructure or staff to effectively communicate with the loyalty programs and processing eligible point-earning transactions from customers in a reasonable timeframe.

Enter Blockchain technology; mooted to be an ever-increasing component of future frequent flyer program back-end structures. This technology is expected to allow airlines to correspond with their partners on an instantaneous basis, and remove the need for costly integration of IT systems between partner and airline.


source: https://www.pointhacks.com.au/frequent-flyer-programs-the-main-game/
 

gareth_oau

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I guess this analysis sort of, kind of supports your argument.

quote:

Frequent flyer programs generate revenue from selling points to third parties, and in order for this to be a profitable exercise, the program needs to generate enough interest from partners who see the benefits of the airline’s points to its own customers. And from the airlines perspective, the more members it has in its loyalty program, the more it can charge for its points.

Therefore, the benefits that flow from frequent flyer programs are in a way circular. A strong product offering by an airline will entice people to join and become active in the airline’s frequent flyer program, while a strong program with many redemption options along with aspirational redemptions will entice members to fly with the airline. The two are intrinsically linked.
yes, I'm looking for a credit card, I will zip tot e qantas page and see which one offers the most sign up points.

If those points are worth nothing to me, then I won't look on the qantas page towards those preferred banks/cards
 

VSG

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Sort of relevant to this thread, esp the last para about Covid, pandemics.

quote:

Futures on Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, dropped 2.3 per cent to $US69.04 a barrel as China’s new measures to combat the Delta variant of Covid-19 renewed concerns that the virus would hit energy demand.

Oil prices also were weighed down by data over the weekend showing that China imported less crude per day in July than in June, analysts said. China is the world’s largest importer of oil.

US stocks hovered around the flatline as a tumble in oil prices signaled investor unease about the Covid-19 pandemic and the strength of the economic recovery.



source: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/bu...ive-coverage/f11035ea09b6746c908e32fa5f1abd4b
 

Mogul

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Exactly and if those points arent worth anything to the consumer, why would banks pay big bucks to the airlines to be a part of it?
Most consumers see FF points as a freebee or a bonus when they spend money. The banks use this to attract customers with sign on bonus's so they will eventually earn their fee's on your transactions. In reality unless you are putting big dollars through credit cards the most anyone will get is a free toaster or at best a free flight between Sydney and Melbourne.

Some of us here are lucky in they we can put large amounts through credit cards and therefore earn a reasonable sum of points to use for travelling. Personally I can't remember the last time I actually purchased an airline ticket with cash.
 

gareth_oau

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Most consumers see FF points as a freebee or a bonus when they spend money. The banks use this to attract customers with sign on bonus's so they will eventually earn their fee's on your transactions. In reality unless you are putting big dollars through credit cards the most anyone will get is a free toaster or at best a free flight between Sydney and Melbourne.

Some of us here are lucky in they we can put large amounts through credit cards and therefore earn a reasonable sum of points to use for travelling. Personally I can't remember the last time I actually purchased an airline ticket with cash.
Well I’ll definitely be dumping my amex if the points are no lober worthwhile

i shop mostly at woolies because QFF. Remove that incentive…
 

Mogul

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Well I’ll definitely be dumping my amex if the points are no lober worthwhile

i shop mostly at woolies because QFF. Remove that incentive…
And you will still probably shop at Woollies.

How many points a year do you earn from Woollies? Probably no more than a one way Perth to Sydney in economy. Points aren't always free the cost is just hidden in purchase price.
 
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