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Discussion in 'Systems & Severe' started by crikey, Jul 6, 2019.
2002 was not solar minimum 2008/2009 was it Crikey
Well, it was in September so any comparison would be tantamount to useless? Found this cool 3D Image of the split though - the main focus of all the papers I’ve read so far is on the ozone hole impacts.
Here is potential vorticity as recommended by literature
for the 7th July.
The literature recommends 450k but the split is only showing up on 380K. No idea why?
Notice the forecast temp' for 48UT mid latitudes in the coming days ,on right frame. There are some organized warm clusters? cells? in the stratosphere. Very well organized structure of warm blobs
Thanks again to ski forum member for this excellent link, just tailored for the job.
haven't had time to check solar variables yet. Thanks for looking.
Wave 1 2002
Wave 1 2019
Hmmm.... makes surface layer comparisons harder. None the less an exercise that has to be undertaken
comparison on the effect of AAO in 2002 would be my first port of call
No modeling is suggesting a full spit in the near future.
GOES-5 is a excellent 'model' @crikey
oh Gees. Just your saw your 2002 journal post. WOW..Thanks for that..
trophy for you. what a gem'..!!!
I will read in coming days.I am all BBQ...ed out for now
It would be good idea to chase up the 7th July 2019 versions of ..the same zonal wave amplitude ..maps
to make an exact comparison , if you have time in the coming days. Could you please supply the links to the maps you posted. Thanks.
I reckon the effects would be amplified actually. The SSW is harder to achieve itself, but the effects are larger as there is no ocean between us and the Antarctic.
This isn’t nearly as extreme as 2002.
While models aren’t bullish perhaps the AAO is tipping us off...forecast to dip quite significantly...this should see deep cold outbreaks into Aus.
All I can see so far is a limited split in certain levels of tropospheric vortex which doesn't last for long...at last look anyway...and that was noted earlier....I'm not convinced at all by anything that's been put up since...
And I reckon the 10-15th system and the system that will probably end up being around 19-23rd July are part of this drop.
actually those graphs show no event at all.
The importance of checking out multiple sources and variables..
We can only keep looking.
Yeah it’s not really a split. A split is when there are two fully separated sections of the SPV.
We can see it “trying” to split from let’s say 50mb and below.
The more interesting thing to me about this is the -AAO like TPV, which is going to score us some serious cold outbreaks IMO.
The lower strat perturbation is part of that, but I think there’s another factor, a missing piece of the puzzle there from my perspective.
I’m pretty sure that’s @Jwintermix’s point.
You need a significant disturbance at the upper stratosphere level for a “real” split vortex.
There’s one thing forsure, the warming event has displaced and deformed the PV.
That’s enough for some decent winter anoms for me.
There's been a lot of effort put in today to suggest it's a split& serious warming etc ...
I can only see a mild distortion at 50 hPa...I cant see that the stratospheric cousin is ruffled much by any of this - depending on where you put the tropopause.
If you could tell me what TPV is...I am interested in that point
Its warms there most seasons if you look over other years on jma
i'm sure you will find the same anom in the quad may not be as
warm tho .As we said on the over thread even a sloopy wobbly pv is a good thing
Now this is something l am very familiar with
Notmso,much geopotential height though
Geopotential height showing vortex split this morning 7th July 2019
right down to 200hpa
This map is 200hpa which is. a height we are all familiar with.
Some strong height anomalies perhaps in the mid latitudes 200hpa?
According to ACCESS G . The vortex is split right down to 850hp. Lets say the surface.
Oh gawd. I have to stay up to snap,that before it goes off screen
That 927hp surface polar low must be part of the vortex structure.
There should be two.?
OK Got all the 'goods' from ACC g .and the above.
Off to bed.
Thanks for your help 'guys'...soooo much
Are we looking at cold air from very high altitude descending through the centre of the Vortex ?
I think what you have is high pressure establishing over the continent and a band of low pressure cells beyond that - I dont think that is unusual.
Far as I understand, the tropospheric vortex doesn't extend below mid troposphere
My understanding is that a vortex is a cyclone. That means rising air from the surface up into the stratosphere and beyond
That 927hpa low in the polar region is one of the vortices
What are the surface temps at say 165w 70s. Where the cyclone/vortex was last night.?
These are the temps that are being sucked up that monster into the upper atmosphere
ACC r says minus 25 deg c
Some of the models at various height should provide a vertical profile
think vertically stacked cyclone. The physics would be similar
Here is a snap of the 200hpa layer last night. clearly showing a clean split
There are 2 separate vortices, one on either side of the pole at 90deg
They both extend vertically up into the stratosphere. At least one of them extends much further up to 70hpa
Here are some notes from my blog on this jetstream 200hpa diagram
th July 2017 sunday evening.
Here is a snap of the 200hpa stratosphere.showing the jetstreams
Evidence of the polar vortex split into 2 distinct vortices
The sub polar jetstream almost completely weakened. Almost non existent
The sub tropical jet contracted south in response to the collapse of the weakend vortex and sub polar jet stream..
This is an unstable state and the vortex will make its way back to equilibrium in the coming days
I think it is a bit misleading to link the separation of the tropospheric vortex into two nodes, with the vortex above the tropopause since the latter doesn't appear to be affected - not dramatically at 70 hPa in anything that I can find.
As before, the two nodal structure will probably result in cold outbreaks moving equatorwards - I guess that is a result of the tropospheric vortex edge migrating in the same direction for however brief a time.
My impression is that the two node structure at the tropospheric level is not unusual - but of course it might be a worthwhile exercise to look into this further.....
At the Poles Rossby waves propogate upwards into the Stratosphere where the waves break. When they do it disturbs the momentum of the Vortex. Results in higher Strat temps. Within that Vortex you can get a mix of parcel cylinders of rising warm and decending cold air. Its basicaly the most fickle equilibrium .
The polar vortex is only an upper feature. ?
I will chase up some upper wind stream features above 200hpa
Might be good to look at that 2002 documentation . I am a bit busy now collecting some obs',which l will post
I think the authorities like meteorological societys will check it out mfor a yay or nay. Don't expect to see it on the news or weather sites
Did BOM do a case study of the one in 2002?
leading edge of the hadley cell appears to be the main
player for forcing and current slope on the pv.
Northern Hemisphere January 2014
Folded the slope ?
Since a high pressure is getting established in the polar troposphere(Bom + immediate forecast) surely cold air would be descending...I'm not aware of any direct exchange between the polar lower troposphere and stratosphere involving a convection-like process...any link you can provide is welcome.never say never.
Even if you don't agree with my assessment,. I am not offended.
I appreciate your comments and links and will certainly look into your concerns about my assessment..
The ski folk want to know the implications of this polar disturbance for cold out breaks and snow.
so .. whats happening.
In the short range..
As result of the... temporary sub polar jet collapse..., their does not seem to be any excursions (high amplitude troughing) or cold pools out of the polar region .
At least this is the ACC g SH temp' profile.
The 2 deg c contour is well contracted south !!
I have not checked your latest updates on the next forecast JULY snow dump. But this contraction of the sub polar may not bode well this week?
Could you provide a link please #snowbarbie for the high pressure BOM forecast you mention.
RE: convection from the surface tropopause to the stratosphere.. It is a well known phenomena in fully formed strong vertically stacked tropical cyclones..Stronger CAT cyclones and typhoons
Anyone looked at Magnetosphere behavior ?
Fascinating all - struggling with some of the concepts but defin absorbing with interest.
I always have trouble visualizing the hadley cell dynamics. It descends in the mid latitudes, is that right?
It is a 3D structure.
Could you provide a link for your findings..,' I would really like to see that
Feel free to ask questions anyone. We try to be consumer friendly
PFG is Polar Fronat Jet. ST = Sub Tropical Jet
7 th July 2019
Southern Hemisphere synoptic showing vortices extending down to surface layer
weak lazy westerly belt
It will be interesting to see how the AAO reflects this disturbance
Rephrase a tilt Definitely theres not a twin split. Paparatzzi love a story!!!.
Just having a break.. Thanks 'guys' again for your interest
here is link crikey
Polar Climate Change as Manifest in Atmospheric Circulation | SpringerLink
I was holts7,now bd7 crikey, to match up with the other two sites!!,
thanks for joining the conversation bd7. I have your links to the stratosphere time series and annual reports which l will check out.. I post this stuff on my blog.
Here is the ..... 70hpa... windstream lines showing two distinct vortices at that height
other heights maybe available to look at here as well
This animation looks great!
The general shape of these vortices from what l can glean is that rhey are wide in diameter at rhe top and surface but narrow at the 200hpa jetstream level
A btt like one of those old fashioned sand egg timer , with the narrow bottlenwck at 200hp. Except their are 2 here.. re the split
As long as what u guys are talking about translates into nice cold winter blasts over the next couple weeks I’m happy
Thanks for the research paper link Kl any more anytime is good!
Any updates on this from the overnight models?
So #Kino not sure what you mean? Updates on what in particular? technical report on polar or do tou mean potential for snow?