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Technical General Stratospheric Observations

Discussion in 'Systems & Severe' started by crikey, Jul 6, 2019.

  1. bd7

    bd7 Hard Yards

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    2002 was not solar minimum 2008/2009 was it Crikey
     
  2. Kino

    Kino Early Days

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    Well, it was in September so any comparison would be tantamount to useless? Found this cool 3D Image of the split though - the main focus of all the papers I’ve read so far is on the ozone hole impacts.
     

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  3. crikey

    crikey Addicted

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    Here is potential vorticity as recommended by literature
    for the 7th July.
    The literature recommends 450k but the split is only showing up on 380K. No idea why?

    Notice the forecast temp' for 48UT mid latitudes in the coming days ,on right frame. There are some organized warm clusters? cells? in the stratosphere. Very well organized structure of warm blobs
    Thanks again to ski forum member for this excellent link, just tailored for the job.
    source
    http://db.cger.nies.go.jp/gem/stras/en/forecast.html?date=20190706&polar=s&k=380

     
  4. crikey

    crikey Addicted

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    haven't had time to check solar variables yet. Thanks for looking.
     
  5. bd7

    bd7 Hard Yards

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    Wave 1 2002
    Wave 1 2019
     
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  6. crikey

    crikey Addicted

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    Hmmm.... makes surface layer comparisons harder. None the less an exercise that has to be undertaken
    comparison on the effect of AAO in 2002 would be my first port of call
     
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  8. crikey

    crikey Addicted

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    oh Gees. Just your saw your 2002 journal post. WOW..Thanks for that..
    trophy for you. what a gem'..!!!
    I will read in coming days.I am all BBQ...ed out for now
     
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  9. crikey

    crikey Addicted

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    It would be good idea to chase up the 7th July 2019 versions of ..the same zonal wave amplitude ..maps
    to make an exact comparison , if you have time in the coming days. Could you please supply the links to the maps you posted. Thanks.
     
  10. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    I reckon the effects would be amplified actually. The SSW is harder to achieve itself, but the effects are larger as there is no ocean between us and the Antarctic.
    This isn’t nearly as extreme as 2002.
     
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  11. Kino

    Kino Early Days

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    While models aren’t bullish perhaps the AAO is tipping us off...forecast to dip quite significantly...this should see deep cold outbreaks into Aus.
     

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  12. snowbarbie

    snowbarbie Hard Yards

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    All I can see so far is a limited split in certain levels of tropospheric vortex which doesn't last for long...at last look anyway...and that was noted earlier....I'm not convinced at all by anything that's been put up since...
     
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  13. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    And I reckon the 10-15th system and the system that will probably end up being around 19-23rd July are part of this drop.
     
  14. crikey

    crikey Addicted

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    actually those graphs show no event at all.
    The importance of checking out multiple sources and variables..
    We can only keep looking.
     
  15. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah it’s not really a split. A split is when there are two fully separated sections of the SPV.
    We can see it “trying” to split from let’s say 50mb and below.
    The more interesting thing to me about this is the -AAO like TPV, which is going to score us some serious cold outbreaks IMO.
    The lower strat perturbation is part of that, but I think there’s another factor, a missing piece of the puzzle there from my perspective.
     
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  16. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    I’m pretty sure that’s @Jwintermix’s point.
    You need a significant disturbance at the upper stratosphere level for a “real” split vortex.
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    There’s one thing forsure, the warming event has displaced and deformed the PV.
    That’s enough for some decent winter anoms for me.
     
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  18. snowbarbie

    snowbarbie Hard Yards

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    There's been a lot of effort put in today to suggest it's a split& serious warming etc ...
    I can only see a mild distortion at 50 hPa...I cant see that the stratospheric cousin is ruffled much by any of this - depending on where you put the tropopause.
    If you could tell me what TPV is...I am interested in that point
     
  19. Its warms there most seasons if you look over other years on jma
    i'm sure you will find the same anom in the quad may not be as
    warm tho .As we said on the over thread even a sloopy wobbly pv is a good thing
    atm.
     
  20. crikey

    crikey Addicted

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    Now this is something l am very familiar with
    ACCESS G
    Notmso,much geopotential height though
    Geopotential height showing vortex split this morning 7th July 2019
    right down to 200hpa
    This map is 200hpa which is. a height we are all familiar with.
    Jetstream height.
    Some strong height anomalies perhaps in the mid latitudes 200hpa?

    According to ACCESS G . The vortex is split right down to 850hp. Lets say the surface.
    Oh gawd. I have to stay up to snap,that before it goes off screen

    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/cha...AEDT&area=SH&model=G&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

    That 927hp surface polar low must be part of the vortex structure.
    There should be two.?
     
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  21. crikey

    crikey Addicted

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    OK Got all the 'goods' from ACC g .and the above.
    Off to bed.
    Thanks for your help 'guys'...soooo much
     
  22. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Are we looking at cold air from very high altitude descending through the centre of the Vortex ?
     
  23. snowbarbie

    snowbarbie Hard Yards

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    I think what you have is high pressure establishing over the continent and a band of low pressure cells beyond that - I dont think that is unusual.

    Far as I understand, the tropospheric vortex doesn't extend below mid troposphere
     
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  24. crikey

    crikey Addicted

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    My understanding is that a vortex is a cyclone. That means rising air from the surface up into the stratosphere and beyond
    That 927hpa low in the polar region is one of the vortices
    What are the surface temps at say 165w 70s. Where the cyclone/vortex was last night.?
    These are the temps that are being sucked up that monster into the upper atmosphere
    ACC r says minus 25 deg c

    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/cha...AEDT&area=SH&model=G&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

    Some of the models at various height should provide a vertical profile

    think vertically stacked cyclone. The physics would be similar
     
  25. crikey

    crikey Addicted

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    Here is a snap of the 200hpa layer last night. clearly showing a clean split
    There are 2 separate vortices, one on either side of the pole at 90deg
    They both extend vertically up into the stratosphere. At least one of them extends much further up to 70hpa
    Here are some notes from my blog on this jetstream 200hpa diagram
    ...........
    th July 2017 sunday evening.
    Here is a snap of the 200hpa stratosphere.showing the jetstreams

    Evidence of the polar vortex split into 2 distinct vortices

    The sub polar jetstream almost completely weakened. Almost non existent
    The sub tropical jet contracted south in response to the collapse of the weakend vortex and sub polar jet stream..
    crikey !!!!
    This is an unstable state and the vortex will make its way back to equilibrium in the coming days
    source
    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/cha...AEDT&area=SH&model=G&chartSubmit=Refresh+View
     
  26. snowbarbie

    snowbarbie Hard Yards

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    I think it is a bit misleading to link the separation of the tropospheric vortex into two nodes, with the vortex above the tropopause since the latter doesn't appear to be affected - not dramatically at 70 hPa in anything that I can find.

    As before, the two nodal structure will probably result in cold outbreaks moving equatorwards - I guess that is a result of the tropospheric vortex edge migrating in the same direction for however brief a time.

    My impression is that the two node structure at the tropospheric level is not unusual - but of course it might be a worthwhile exercise to look into this further.....
     
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  27. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    At the Poles Rossby waves propogate upwards into the Stratosphere where the waves break. When they do it disturbs the momentum of the Vortex. Results in higher Strat temps. Within that Vortex you can get a mix of parcel cylinders of rising warm and decending cold air. Its basicaly the most fickle equilibrium .
     
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  28. crikey

    crikey Addicted

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    The polar vortex is only an upper feature. ?
    I will chase up some upper wind stream features above 200hpa
    Might be good to look at that 2002 documentation . I am a bit busy now collecting some obs',which l will post
    I think the authorities like meteorological societys will check it out mfor a yay or nay. Don't expect to see it on the news or weather sites
    Did BOM do a case study of the one in 2002?
     
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  29. leading edge of the hadley cell appears to be the main
    player for forcing and current slope on the pv.
     
  30. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Northern Hemisphere January 2014
     
  31. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Folded the slope ?
     
  32. snowbarbie

    snowbarbie Hard Yards

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    Since a high pressure is getting established in the polar troposphere(Bom + immediate forecast) surely cold air would be descending...I'm not aware of any direct exchange between the polar lower troposphere and stratosphere involving a convection-like process...any link you can provide is welcome.never say never.
     
  33. crikey

    crikey Addicted

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    Even if you don't agree with my assessment,. I am not offended.
    I appreciate your comments and links and will certainly look into your concerns about my assessment..

    The ski folk want to know the implications of this polar disturbance for cold out breaks and snow.
    so .. whats happening.
    In the short range..
    As result of the... temporary sub polar jet collapse..., their does not seem to be any excursions (high amplitude troughing) or cold pools out of the polar region .
    At least this is the ACC g SH temp' profile.
    The 2 deg c contour is well contracted south !!
    I have not checked your latest updates on the next forecast JULY snow dump. But this contraction of the sub polar may not bode well this week?
     
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  34. crikey

    crikey Addicted

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    Could you provide a link please #snowbarbie for the high pressure BOM forecast you mention.

    RE: convection from the surface tropopause to the stratosphere.. It is a well known phenomena in fully formed strong vertically stacked tropical cyclones..Stronger CAT cyclones and typhoons
     
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  35. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Anyone looked at Magnetosphere behavior ?
     
  36. Kino

    Kino Early Days

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    Fascinating all - struggling with some of the concepts but defin absorbing with interest.
     
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  37. crikey

    crikey Addicted

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    I always have trouble visualizing the hadley cell dynamics. It descends in the mid latitudes, is that right?
    It is a 3D structure.
    Could you provide a link for your findings..,' I would really like to see that
     
  38. crikey

    crikey Addicted

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    Feel free to ask questions anyone. We try to be consumer friendly
     
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  39. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    PFG is Polar Fronat Jet. ST = Sub Tropical Jet
     
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  40. crikey

    crikey Addicted

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    7 th July 2019
    Southern Hemisphere synoptic showing vortices extending down to surface layer
    weak lazy westerly belt
    It will be interesting to see how the AAO reflects this disturbance reflthis pattern
     
  41. Rephrase a tilt Definitely theres not a twin split. Paparatzzi love a story!!!.
     
  42. crikey

    crikey Addicted

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    Just having a break.. Thanks 'guys' again for your interest
     
  43. bd7

    bd7 Hard Yards

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  44. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  45. bd7

    bd7 Hard Yards

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    I was holts7,now bd7 crikey, to match up with the other two sites!!,
     
  46. crikey

    crikey Addicted

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    thanks for joining the conversation bd7. I have your links to the stratosphere time series and annual reports which l will check out.. I post this stuff on my blog.
    Here is the ..... 70hpa... windstream lines showing two distinct vortices at that height

    other heights maybe available to look at here as well
    This animation looks great!
    https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/70hPa/orthographic=-218.48,-69.02,180

    The general shape of these vortices from what l can glean is that rhey are wide in diameter at rhe top and surface but narrow at the 200hpa jetstream level
    A btt like one of those old fashioned sand egg timer , with the narrow bottlenwck at 200hp. Except their are 2 here.. re the split

     
  47. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    As long as what u guys are talking about translates into nice cold winter blasts over the next couple weeks I’m happy
     
  48. bd7

    bd7 Hard Yards

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    Thanks for the research paper link Kl any more anytime is good!
     
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  49. Kino

    Kino Early Days

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    Any updates on this from the overnight models?
     
  50. crikey

    crikey Addicted

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    So #Kino not sure what you mean? Updates on what in particular? technical report on polar or do tou mean potential for snow?