General Weather BBQ Forum (Worldwide)
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It's actually so mindboggling how insane the rain event over British Columbia was especially after the year that has been. Especially given the time of the year and that region being about 49-50 degrees north.
That was the fifth atmospheric river of the fall season for coastal BC, so there was substantial surface water flowing even before it hit. And some of the pervious systems had dumped snow in the alpine elevations, leaving a good amount of stored water on the ground. Last weekend's system delivered record breaking precipitation, overwhelming already swollen rivers plus washing almost all the snow down as well. Some river recording stations exceeded all time record flows by a factor of three, and freeway bridges engineered to withstand 200-year events were brushed aside.
"Unprecedented" gets used a lot these days, but this weather event truly was. I'm still amazed that a major global transport hub like Vancouver can have all its ground transport connections completely severed.
South Pac High not backing down.
1041hPa central pressure on this morning's GFS analysis.
440 people dead as a result of the Durban SA floods:
South Africa declares state of disaster as 10,000 soldiers deploy to flood zone
Troops are set to join relief efforts in South Africa's KwaZulu-Natal province a week after torrential rains began, killing more than 440 people.
www.abc.net.au
Big shout out to the WF posters
No secret I'm a keen weather lurker but when the predictions were hardening up for this Polar Opener I took the plunge a week ago and got a last week of June first week July midweeker for me and the kids at Hotham at The Arlberg
Super excited as I used to visit Hotham a lot at Uni and in my 20's put I reckon 25 years since I've been there
Presumably there would be nothing available today!
Cheers boys and girls
40 again in Isesaki today.
Early onset of the brutal heat is making up for last year. Daily temperatures peaking in mid to high thirties with dew points in the twenties in the prefectures around Tokyo (Kantou-Koushin).
An avalanche set off by the collapse of the largest glacier in the Italian Alps killed at least six people and injured eight others Sunday, an emergency services spokeswoman said.
The glacier collapsed on the mountain of Marmolada, the highest in the Italian Dolomites, near the hamlet of Punta Rocca, on the route normally taken to reach its summit.
The disaster struck one day after a record-high temperature of 10 degrees Celsius (50 degrees Fahrenheit) was recorded at the glacier's summit.
etc
There has been a few of these in Alps in recent days. Will try dig some examples up.
Not sure if this is the same icefall as but def the same region.
Just noticed a 2:00 pm obs for Sibi, Pakistan just now.
Temp: 42.2
Dew pt: 30.0
Feels like: 64
Proper Summer conditions.
Meanwhile over in Phoenix, AZ. 40s in day and 30s at night as usual.
Fark. Took them a while to realise they were going to get it. I guess wouldn't have had time to get anywhere safer anyway. Scary.
The caption from the OP pointed out he had no where to run to as he was on the edge of a steep bouldered rock face. Kinda the perfect spot when you can’t run, seeing there’d be lots of air pockets etc.
Worth also pointing out… run to where? ‘ain’t no out-running that! Lots of armchair critics in comments but looked like he remained calm and rational right to end, so handled it well (albeit filming), I reckon.
Big plums filming all of it.Jul 2022 Climate Forecast Discussion for Aug-Oct through Nov-Jan 2023
Note: The IRI seasonal forecasts of precipitation and temperature issued this month are based on an objective calibration procedure that combines the NCEP-CFSv2, CanSIPS-IC3, COLA-RSMAS-CCSM4, GFDL-SPEAR and NASA-GEOSS2S models. The climatological base period for normal is 1991-2020.
In June 2022, the equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central-eastern tropical Pacific Ocean remained consistent with weak La Niña conditions (NINO3.4 index value in June 2022 was -0.68). In the early-July CPC/IRI ENSO forecast, La Niña is likely to persist during the rest of the boreal summer, fall and early winter with probabilities ranging from 60 to 66%. The sustained La Niña SST pattern forecasted in the tropical Pacific does impact the associated seasonal climate forecast. In addition, a negative Indian Ocean Dipole is forecasted for all four seasons, most strongly during the first three seasons (Aug-Oct, Sep-Nov, Oct-Dec, 2022). Near-average SST is forecasted for the north and south tropical Atlantic during Aug-Oct 2022, while a weak below-average SST (gradually increasing) is forecasted during the other three seasons (Sep-Nov, Oct-Dec 2022, and Nov-Jan 2023).
In Aug-Oct 2022, the forecasts indicate weak to moderate probabilities of below-normal precipitation in southern South America, East Africa, Türkiye, and Central Southwest Asia, which strengthen over the remainder of the forecast period. Below-normal precipitation probabilities are forecasted over and around southeast US and Mexico during Sep-Nov 2022, with gradually intensifying below-average probabilities in Oct-Dec 2022 and Nov-Jan 2023. Below-average precipitation is also forecast for Nov-Jan 2023 over western and northeastern China. During Aug-Oct and Sep-Nov 2022, high probabilities of above-normal precipitation are forecasted over most of Australia and much of the Maritime Continent, with gradually decreasing values during Oct-Dec 2022 and Nov-Jan 2023. Forecasts indicate a moderate probability of above-normal precipitation in Aug-Oct, and Sep-Nov 2022, especially in northern South America, the Sahel region of Africa, the southwest Arabian Peninsula, many regions of South Asian monsoon, and Southeast Asia. A moderate to weak probability of above-average precipitation is forecast for most of the Indian Peninsula, southeast Asia, and central Brazil during Oct-Dec of 2022, while, South Africa is expected to experience above-normal precipitation in Nov-Jan 2023.
High probabilities of above-normal temperatures are forecast over the majority of land areas during the forecast period. However, moderate probabilities of below-normal temperatures are forecast for the African Sahel, southern Indian Peninsula, and some parts of southwestern Africa and over much of Australia during Aug-Oct 2022, which weaken during rest of the forecast period except over Australia where enhanced probabilities of below-normal temperatures are forecast throughout the forecast period. Weak probabilities of below-normal temperatures are also forecasted over mainland southeast Asia during Oct-Dec, 2022.UK looking to crack 40C for the 1st time.
Poms to swelter as first ever extreme heat warning issued: 'Unprecedented'
Temperatures are set to soar beyond 40C for the first time ever. Find out more.au.yahoo.com
Modelled over 10 days ago now. It’s one thing to break records but for them to be modelled at long range is straight up remarkable.
Watch hundreds die from induced heat stress over this weekend. Might hard to attain figures of course but it will take its toll:
This same person tells me the median forecast temperature for Lincolnshire and South Yorkshire is over 42 degrees.
Downslope foehn warming says hello.
Downsloping from where? What elevation is the terrain South of Yorkshire? It’s all pretty flat through there. Or are you meaning off the Lake District?
Hot in Spain, but not as bad as Morocco!
25.9 the new record for overnight minimum in Emley Moor, West Yorkshire.
UK heatwave: Hottest day on record likely with highs of up to 42C
Extreme heat warnings are in force as health and transport systems struggle to cope with rising temperatures.www.bbc.com
25.9 the new record for overnight minimum in Emley Moor, West Yorkshire.
UK heatwave: Hottest day on record likely with highs of up to 42C
Extreme heat warnings are in force as health and transport systems struggle to cope with rising temperatures.www.bbc.com
My old stomping ground.
Just insane!
Just went to grab some lunch in central London and wow it’s hot
