General Weather BBQ Forum (Worldwide)

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AshestoAshes

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 3, 2019
568
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Voyager Point NSW
It's actually so mindboggling how insane the rain event over British Columbia was especially after the year that has been. Especially given the time of the year and that region being about 49-50 degrees north.
 

sly_karma

Green Bastard
Ski Pass
Dec 12, 2005
23,761
19,965
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Penticton, BC
That was the fifth atmospheric river of the fall season for coastal BC, so there was substantial surface water flowing even before it hit. And some of the pervious systems had dumped snow in the alpine elevations, leaving a good amount of stored water on the ground. Last weekend's system delivered record breaking precipitation, overwhelming already swollen rivers plus washing almost all the snow down as well. Some river recording stations exceeded all time record flows by a factor of three, and freeway bridges engineered to withstand 200-year events were brushed aside.

"Unprecedented" gets used a lot these days, but this weather event truly was. I'm still amazed that a major global transport hub like Vancouver can have all its ground transport connections completely severed.
 
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MisterMxyzptlk

Old n' Crusty
Ski Pass
Mar 12, 2002
28,568
14,899
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Big shout out to the WF posters
No secret I'm a keen weather lurker but when the predictions were hardening up for this Polar Opener I took the plunge a week ago and got a last week of June first week July midweeker for me and the kids at Hotham at The Arlberg
Super excited as I used to visit Hotham a lot at Uni and in my 20's put I reckon 25 years since I've been there
Presumably there would be nothing available today!:nerd:
Cheers boys and girls

:cheers:
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
25,594
44,958
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Eastern Burbs of Sydney
You know it's winter in Aus when the Islands take out the 'warmest in Aus' accolade:
Screen Shot 2022-06-01 at 8.30.29 am.png
 
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rocketboy

One of Us
Ski Pass
Sep 9, 2010
3,476
6,978
363
Gerroa

An avalanche set off by the collapse of the largest glacier in the Italian Alps killed at least six people and injured eight others Sunday, an emergency services spokeswoman said.

The glacier collapsed on the mountain of Marmolada, the highest in the Italian Dolomites, near the hamlet of Punta Rocca, on the route normally taken to reach its summit.

The disaster struck one day after a record-high temperature of 10 degrees Celsius (50 degrees Fahrenheit) was recorded at the glacier's summit.

etc
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
25,594
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Eastern Burbs of Sydney

An avalanche set off by the collapse of the largest glacier in the Italian Alps killed at least six people and injured eight others Sunday, an emergency services spokeswoman said.

The glacier collapsed on the mountain of Marmolada, the highest in the Italian Dolomites, near the hamlet of Punta Rocca, on the route normally taken to reach its summit.

The disaster struck one day after a record-high temperature of 10 degrees Celsius (50 degrees Fahrenheit) was recorded at the glacier's summit.

etc
There has been a few of these in Alps in recent days. Will try dig some examples up.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
25,594
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Eastern Burbs of Sydney

An avalanche set off by the collapse of the largest glacier in the Italian Alps killed at least six people and injured eight others Sunday, an emergency services spokeswoman said.

The glacier collapsed on the mountain of Marmolada, the highest in the Italian Dolomites, near the hamlet of Punta Rocca, on the route normally taken to reach its summit.

The disaster struck one day after a record-high temperature of 10 degrees Celsius (50 degrees Fahrenheit) was recorded at the glacier's summit.

etc
Not sure if this is the same icefall as but def the same region.
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
25,594
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Fark. Took them a while to realise they were going to get it. I guess wouldn't have had time to get anywhere safer anyway. Scary.
The caption from the OP pointed out he had no where to run to as he was on the edge of a steep bouldered rock face. Kinda the perfect spot when you can’t run, seeing there’d be lots of air pockets etc.

Worth also pointing out… run to where? ‘ain’t no out-running that! Lots of armchair critics in comments but looked like he remained calm and rational right to end, so handled it well (albeit filming), I reckon.
Big plums filming all of it.
 

rocketboy

One of Us
Ski Pass
Sep 9, 2010
3,476
6,978
363
Gerroa
Jul 2022 Climate Forecast Discussion for Aug-Oct through Nov-Jan 2023

00028121.jpg


Note: The IRI seasonal forecasts of precipitation and temperature issued this month are based on an objective calibration procedure that combines the NCEP-CFSv2, CanSIPS-IC3, COLA-RSMAS-CCSM4, GFDL-SPEAR and NASA-GEOSS2S models. The climatological base period for normal is 1991-2020.

In June 2022, the equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central-eastern tropical Pacific Ocean remained consistent with weak La Niña conditions (NINO3.4 index value in June 2022 was -0.68). In the early-July CPC/IRI ENSO forecast, La Niña is likely to persist during the rest of the boreal summer, fall and early winter with probabilities ranging from 60 to 66%. The sustained La Niña SST pattern forecasted in the tropical Pacific does impact the associated seasonal climate forecast. In addition, a negative Indian Ocean Dipole is forecasted for all four seasons, most strongly during the first three seasons (Aug-Oct, Sep-Nov, Oct-Dec, 2022). Near-average SST is forecasted for the north and south tropical Atlantic during Aug-Oct 2022, while a weak below-average SST (gradually increasing) is forecasted during the other three seasons (Sep-Nov, Oct-Dec 2022, and Nov-Jan 2023).

In Aug-Oct 2022, the forecasts indicate weak to moderate probabilities of below-normal precipitation in southern South America, East Africa, Türkiye, and Central Southwest Asia, which strengthen over the remainder of the forecast period. Below-normal precipitation probabilities are forecasted over and around southeast US and Mexico during Sep-Nov 2022, with gradually intensifying below-average probabilities in Oct-Dec 2022 and Nov-Jan 2023. Below-average precipitation is also forecast for Nov-Jan 2023 over western and northeastern China. During Aug-Oct and Sep-Nov 2022, high probabilities of above-normal precipitation are forecasted over most of Australia and much of the Maritime Continent, with gradually decreasing values during Oct-Dec 2022 and Nov-Jan 2023. Forecasts indicate a moderate probability of above-normal precipitation in Aug-Oct, and Sep-Nov 2022, especially in northern South America, the Sahel region of Africa, the southwest Arabian Peninsula, many regions of South Asian monsoon, and Southeast Asia. A moderate to weak probability of above-average precipitation is forecast for most of the Indian Peninsula, southeast Asia, and central Brazil during Oct-Dec of 2022, while, South Africa is expected to experience above-normal precipitation in Nov-Jan 2023.

High probabilities of above-normal temperatures are forecast over the majority of land areas during the forecast period. However, moderate probabilities of below-normal temperatures are forecast for the African Sahel, southern Indian Peninsula, and some parts of southwestern Africa and over much of Australia during Aug-Oct 2022, which weaken during rest of the forecast period except over Australia where enhanced probabilities of below-normal temperatures are forecast throughout the forecast period. Weak probabilities of below-normal temperatures are also forecasted over mainland southeast Asia during Oct-Dec, 2022.
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
25,594
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Eastern Burbs of Sydney


This same person tells me the median forecast temperature for Lincolnshire and South Yorkshire is over 42 degrees.

Downslope foehn warming says hello.

Downsloping from where? What elevation is the terrain South of Yorkshire? It’s all pretty flat through there. Or are you meaning off the Lake District?
 
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