Guessing the date of the first cyclone 2019

Discussion in 'The Tropics & Cyclones' started by comet, Nov 22, 2019.

  1. comet

    comet Hard Yards Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2019
    Messages:
    84
    Likes Received:
    329
    Location:
    Kangaroo Point, East Brisbane
    Hi everyone! With cyclone season almost upon us this thread has been started for us all to have some fun trying to guess the date and area of the first cyclone for 2019.

    It doesn't matter if you know nothing, or everything, about cyclones. It is just for fun.

    Comet
     
    StormyLee likes this.
  2. comet

    comet Hard Yards Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2019
    Messages:
    84
    Likes Received:
    329
    Location:
    Kangaroo Point, East Brisbane
    My guess is 14th December, 2019 somewhere near Weipa in Queensland.
     
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    114,467
    Likes Received:
    51,728
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    I'm assuming you're looking at cyclones, say that are within 200km of Australia?
    Because we've already had one in the south pacific.
     
    comet likes this.
  4. _Yossarian_

    _Yossarian_ Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 11, 2019
    Messages:
    167
    Likes Received:
    268
    Early January, off Queensland.
     
    comet likes this.
  5. comet

    comet Hard Yards Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2019
    Messages:
    84
    Likes Received:
    329
    Location:
    Kangaroo Point, East Brisbane
    Hi Claude Cat! I thought no one was going to reply in this thread. Thank you! And yes, I guess within 200km of Oz.
    Care to jump in and have a guess?
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    114,467
    Likes Received:
    51,728
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    I'll say around December 20
     
    comet likes this.
  7. Tanuki

    Tanuki A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 29, 2010
    Messages:
    8,669
    Likes Received:
    4,485
    Dec 13, NW, Dampier Peninsula.
     
    comet likes this.
  8. _Yossarian_

    _Yossarian_ Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 11, 2019
    Messages:
    167
    Likes Received:
    268
    It's a funny setup. Although the SST's directly off the NW shelf are above-average, the cold water nearer Indonesia means the MJO strength just dies whenever it moves closer to Australia.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    comet and POW_hungry like this.
  9. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    8,769
    Likes Received:
    10,738
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    December 22nd, somewhere in the NW.
     
    comet likes this.
  10. comet

    comet Hard Yards Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2019
    Messages:
    84
    Likes Received:
    329
    Location:
    Kangaroo Point, East Brisbane
    Just in time for Christmas :)
     
  11. William

    William A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    9,312
    Likes Received:
    364
    Location:
    Cairns
    Second week of Jan 2020 for one in the Coral Sea AOR. I'll take a stab at a east coast crossing in late-February 2020.

    West coast, last week of December for a formation in the AOR and last week of 1st week of Feb for a crossing.

    So it looks like I'm going for no cyclones in the 2019 part of the 19/20 season.
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  12. StormyLee

    StormyLee Early Days

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2019
    Messages:
    22
    Likes Received:
    65
    Location:
    Karratha
    13th Jan - NW Australia.

    I'd usually say a WA Christmas cyclone, but I think we'll run a bit behind this year.
     
  13. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2014
    Messages:
    4,444
    Likes Received:
    3,949
    Location:
    Cairns, Queensland
    So Innisfail/Mission beach again just to keep them on their toes down there?
     
  14. William

    William A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    9,312
    Likes Received:
    364
    Location:
    Cairns
    I'll go for a weak system over the cape.
     
  15. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2014
    Messages:
    4,444
    Likes Received:
    3,949
    Location:
    Cairns, Queensland
    And we'll benefit from the rain in its tail.
     
  16. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 1999
    Messages:
    39,111
    Likes Received:
    4,209
    Location:
    An airport