"Heatwave" to his parts of Aus this week

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by skiflat, Oct 8, 2006.

  1. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    #1 skiflat, Oct 8, 2006
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  2. Mrstr_Chief

    Mrstr_Chief One of Us

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    Is it normal to get these "heatwaves" before SUMMER?
     
  3. Telestrom

    Telestrom A Local

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    In recent years, southern Australia has by-passed Spring and Autumn and just has winter/summer.

    Reading about these high Spring temps makes me very happy about moving to NZ.
     
  4. M-HD

    M-HD First Runs

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    30 degrees in early october (Canberra thurs fri) has me more than a little worried... definately a weather extreme
     
  5. Djon

    Djon First Runs

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    Yeah, does appear to be particularly warm for Canberra, getting up towards the record perhaps.

    From http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200610/s1758066.htm :
     
    #5 Djon, Oct 9, 2006
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  6. Lon

    Lon Part of the Furniture

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    So, if it does break that record, lets blame global warming. It will be only the hotest october day in 60 years! :rolleyes:
     
    #6 Lon, Oct 9, 2006
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  7. Djon

    Djon First Runs

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    [Pedantic]
    The BoM typically defines a heatwave as being 3 or more consecutive days above 35 degrees.
    [/Pedantic]

    Clearly though the conditions we are looking at here are very high for this time of year, so perhaps could be interpreted as a 'season-specific heatwave'... Perhaps even some parts more interior will even have a 'genuine' heatwave.

    Some relevant links from the BoM :
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/environ/heat_cold.shtml
    http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/sevwx/perth/heatwaves.shtml
    http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/nsw/2004febnsw.shtml
     
    #7 Djon, Oct 9, 2006
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  8. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Djon: Love your work [​IMG]

    So no "heatwave" is seems [​IMG] rather a "warm spell"
     
    #8 skiflat, Oct 9, 2006
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  9. adminvb

    adminvb First Runs

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    Let's not be pedantic - for this time of the year it's going to be hot. Too hot.
     
  10. Born2ski

    Born2ski Part of the Furniture

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    Beautiful up here in Brisbane, 23c to 26c for the next four days. It's actually been a mild start to our summer season compared to previous years.
    Must be "global cooling" up here.... :p
     
  11. Born2ski

    Born2ski Part of the Furniture

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    Beautiful up here in Brisbane, 23c to 26c for the next four days. It's actually been a mild start to our summer season compared to previous years.
    Must be "global cooling" up here.... :p
     
  12. Squibby

    Squibby One of Us

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    sucky down here in sydney because they predicted 25 or something here today and it was 27 etc..so 35 could end up being 37 etc.
     
  13. mochon

    mochon First Runs

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    AndDee ,djon do you doubt that global warming is occuring or that we have been having an extended dry hot spell for the last ten years.If not global warming what is it,am interested to know
     
  14. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Global Warming IS NOT defined by a ten year period of drier than average conditions. The Maya civilisation collapsed 1100 years ago because of 3 periods of intense drought over 100 years. Was THAT caused by man made global warming??? No it wasn't. In order to link specific events to man made global warming, a TREND must be identified, that falls outside of normal variability.
    Our ten year period of drier than average conditions is within the normal bounds of variability.
     
    #14 Sandy, Oct 11, 2006
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  15. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Thank you Sandy [​IMG]
     
    #15 skiflat, Oct 11, 2006
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  16. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    But Sandy, whether its man made or not, its global warming.
     
  17. Lon

    Lon Part of the Furniture

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    And therefore can be ignored as it may be just a natural cycle and nothing "we" as the human race can stop or do anything about it [​IMG]
     
    #17 Lon, Oct 11, 2006
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  18. Born2ski

    Born2ski Part of the Furniture

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    But global warming is a good excuse (or reason) to get rid of our dependence on oil and other fossil fuels.

    Go renewable energy....
    (I'd much rather the sun power my car than make oil companies rich !)
     
  19. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Whats your defintion of global warming ?
     
    #19 skiflat, Oct 11, 2006
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  20. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    you dont think when the oil runs out or when we turn to solar and renewables a heap of companies will be rolling in it thanks to people who buy their products? nothing will change mate, you're deluded if u think differently. someone will get dirt rich from solar and YOU'LL be paying them.
     
    #20 Vermillion, Oct 11, 2006
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  21. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Another reason to start now, get in early while solar is still free [​IMG]
     
    #21 Stratus, Oct 11, 2006
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  22. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Gradual increase in the earth's surface temperature.
     
    #22 Stratus, Oct 11, 2006
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  23. zar

    zar One of Us

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    From: www.themercury.com.au


    Dramatic scenes close to the Hobart CBD this afternoon. My family lives at Mt Nelson, my parents returned home from work early to defend the house from embers. Thankfully they believe everything will be Ok, but they're naturally keeping a close eye on things.

    The total fire ban has been extended to include tomorrow. Today's weather was preety extraordinary: 28 degrees, winds to 80km/hr and record low humidity levels ( down to 8% ).

    Unfortuently the weather forecast looks preety dire for tomorrow, but a much better picture for the weekend
     
    #23 zar, Oct 11, 2006
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  24. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    if u call something that is general 10% efficient (silicon is 20% but MUCH more expensive) and it still costs a shiteload 'free', then somethings wrong.

    Until they can get solar to be greater than 50% efficient, due to its intermittance (no sun during overcast and at night) its just not worth it.

    plus, people are already making money on fools who invest in it now.
     
    #24 Vermillion, Oct 11, 2006
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  25. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm afraid that only ten years of drier than average years is NOT proof of global warming of any description.... it is within the normal bounds of variability. Did you know that immediately BEFORE the current dry spell, Melbourne experienced it's WETTEST first nine months of the year on record??? (Jan-Sep 1996) Hwo do you explain that?
     
    #25 Sandy, Oct 11, 2006
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  26. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    So you call this drought period, due to Global warming ?

    Also, do you call the Maya civilisation collapsed 1100 years ago because of 3 periods of intense drought over 100 years, due to global warming ?

    How can you when you just said your definition is due to "Gradual increase in the earth's surface temperature."
     
    #26 skiflat, Oct 11, 2006
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  27. Born2ski

    Born2ski Part of the Furniture

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    if u call something that is general 10% efficient (silicon is 20% but MUCH more expensive) and it still costs a shiteload 'free', then somethings wrong.

    Until they can get solar to be greater than 50% efficient, due to its intermittance (no sun during overcast and at night) its just not worth it.

    plus, people are already making money on fools who invest in it now. </strong></font><hr /></blockquote><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">Research and development are great things. They have given us so much technology that years ago many people said would not be possible. And yes people will make money out of renewable energy; they're the people who spend the time and money to develop the technology while others tell them it's not worth it. (And they deserve the rewards)
    To believe the world won't change is deluding yourself.....
     
    #27 Born2ski, Oct 11, 2006
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  28. zar

    zar One of Us

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    I'm afraid that only ten years of drier than average years is NOT proof of global warming of any description.... it is within the normal bounds of variability. Did you know that immediately BEFORE the current dry spell, Melbourne experienced it's WETTEST first nine months of the year on record??? (Jan-Sep 1996) Hwo do you explain that? </strong></font><hr /></blockquote><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">Scientific opinion suggests that global warming is producing weather extremes. The fact that Melbourne had a record wet start to 1996, immedietly followed by a record dry period, is an example of how the weather is shifting from one extreme to the other.

    Anyway, back to the guts of the topic.. :p

    --------

    It was one of the warmest October nights in 120 years of weather records in Hobart tonight. It didn't drop below 21, the winds have eased a bit but have picked up in the last hour. October's record minimum is 20.1, we missed out on setting a new record by 1.2 degrees - as it was 18.9 at 9am yesterday.

    There are now 2 bushfires burning in Hobart suburbs. The closest one to the CBD is at Mt.Nelson, about 3km from town. Last night it flared again and has the potential to threaten quite a few homes in the area dependent on how successful the containment lines are. The other fire is on the eastern side of the river. The status on that one this morning is unclear, but it's really got no where to go now as it's already razed half the hill.


    Cautious eyes in Hobart today.
     
    #28 zar, Oct 12, 2006
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  29. mochon

    mochon First Runs

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    sounds a bit like you telling it was still going to be a good snow season halfway through august sandy.So you are saying that all the smoke pollution and other cr.p we are spewing into our atmosphere is having no effect,maybe you could get a job with little johnny or george!
     
  30. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The whole contention that a few ISOLATED weather incidents is PROOF of global warming is idiotic!!! :rolleyes:

    Can you tell me what solar output has been doing in the last one hundred years? Can you tell me in which phase the precession of the equinox is currently in?

    I am NOT saying that man made global warming does not exist.... in fact I believe that man made global warming DOES exist. Deviations in levels of CO2 from the cyclic precession of the equinox started to occur 8000 years ago, and for methane 5000 years ago. This and other factors lead me to conclude that deviations from long term natural cycles are PROOF that man made global warming is real. In order to establish a statisical BASIS for PROOF, you must eliminate NATURAL VARIABILITY AND CYCLES from the data, to find the REAL deviation from the norm.

    So DON'T TELL ME I said man made global warming does not exist, because that is not what I believe and that is NOT what I SAID.

    I said that the current conditions(10 year dry spell, bad season, warm summer, etc) are within the normal bounds of variability, and are not proof of man made global warming. From a statistical point of view, it is idiotic to say so....
     
    #30 Sandy, Oct 12, 2006
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  31. Bugski

    Bugski A Local

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    Matt Damon.
     
  32. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    if u call something that is general 10% efficient (silicon is 20% but MUCH more expensive) and it still costs a shiteload 'free', then somethings wrong.

    Until they can get solar to be greater than 50% efficient, due to its intermittance (no sun during overcast and at night) its just not worth it.

    plus, people are already making money on fools who invest in it now. </strong></font><hr /></blockquote><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">Then your in a loose - loose situation regardless i guess.
     
    #32 Stratus, Oct 12, 2006
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  33. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    I know understand why getting involved in any global warming discussion's on Moosh is a bad idea. Its not worth the wasted time, except for a few.

    I'll be following the topic with civilization on Weatherzone - if i find out anything interesting i'll let you guys know [​IMG] .

    Ta.
     
    #33 Stratus, Oct 12, 2006
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  34. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    So you call this drought period, due to Global warming ?

    How can you when you just said your definition is due to "Gradual increase in the earth's surface temperature." </strong></font><hr /></blockquote><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">Where did i say anything about Global Warming relating to the drought? Where? Where? Where, find it? Stop being a complete **** , making sh** out of absolutley nothing just so you can 'get it out of you'.
     
    #34 Stratus, Oct 12, 2006
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  35. Templestowstud

    Templestowstud First Runs

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    Sandy,

    I think the cycles we are discussing here are like a swing. How do we know that we are not pushing the natural swing and will eventually change the cycle or its strength?
     
  36. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well of course we are talking about cycles like that......

    Read my previous post. I said that we have already pushed the natural cycle off (CO2 & methane).
    But what has been talked about here is like one fly that's hit the ropes on the swing... it provides a tiny change to the velocity and direction the swing is going(natural variability, assuming that a number of flies regularly hit the swing), but does not change the overall charcteristics of the motion of the swing.
    There could also be strong winds that are cyclic, that affect the motion of the swing.... these would have a more pronounced effect on the motion, but would be natural and cyclic.

    However, what if a person gives the swing a big, uneven push?? The swing may swing higher or lower, it may twist and heave, or it may actually stop.... This is NOT natural nor cyclic, but it must be a big enough push to be noticed AND you will not notice the change in motion over 1mm.... you need perhaps more than 10cm to gain a statisical measure of the motion and how it is predicted to move.....
     
    #36 Sandy, Oct 12, 2006
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  37. Mrstr_Chief

    Mrstr_Chief One of Us

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    [​IMG] love that movie (Team America)
     
    #37 Mrstr_Chief, Oct 12, 2006
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  38. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    Hobart 29.6 @ 10am. That warm for tassie at any time of the year let alone october.
     
  39. Squidly

    Squidly One of Us

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    Major fire building on Hobart's Eastern Shore - scary, 32 degrees and windy at 12.30pm
     
  40. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    How can "global" warming be evidenced by "SE Australia" warming? Last time I checked my atlas, Australia was only a tiny part of the globe.
     
  41. adminvb

    adminvb First Runs

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    I think I know what you mean blue_neon.
     
  42. the_guru

    the_guru One of Us

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    [​IMG]
    Heatwave my a55
     
    #42 the_guru, Oct 12, 2006
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  43. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    blue_neon: It's quite simple

    Sandy said this: "Global Warming IS NOT defined by a ten year period of drier than average conditions. The Maya civilisation collapsed 1100 years ago because of 3 periods of intense drought over 100 years. Was THAT caused by man made global warming??? No it wasn't. In order to link specific events to man made global warming, a TREND must be identified, that falls outside of normal variability.
    Our ten year period of drier than average conditions is within the normal bounds of variability"

    You said in direct response to that "But Sandy, whether its man made or not, its global warming."

    So your saying that this current ten year preiod of drier than average conditions IS caused by global warming.

    Found it for you [​IMG] or I could have mis-interpreted your post, but it seems pretty clear to me, you were replying to what Sandy said.
     
    #43 skiflat, Oct 12, 2006
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  44. adminvb

    adminvb First Runs

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    34C in various western suburbs of Sydney today.
     
  45. Ijay

    Ijay Hard Yards Ski Pass: Silver

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    Good point!

    [​IMG]

    40°-50° West of NSW is anything but a heat wave.
     
    #45 Ijay, Oct 12, 2006
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  46. adminvb

    adminvb First Runs

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    No wonder it's 35C in Melbourne looking at those isobars. From Darwin with love - minus the humidity.
     
  47. zar

    zar One of Us

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    This fire is apparently the worst of 10 which are burning uncontained across Tasmania.

    It appears to be crossing the hills behind major suburban areas. 1 house has been destroyed, and homeowners from Risdon Vale to Warrane have been advised to return home to defend their properties.

    The plume of smoke is clearly visible from the city. The Tas fire service says that the fire index reading is the highest since February 7 1967.

    Hobart hit 33.0 degrees today, the highest October maximum since the record of 34.6 on October 31 1987. For the beginning of October, the temperature is a record high.

    I've just taken a look at the maximum temperature in Melbourne and Adelaide for today. Both were within 2 degrees of their highest October readings, and most likely the highest for the first half of the month.
     
    #47 zar, Oct 12, 2006
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  48. Matt.D

    Matt.D Hard Yards

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    Melbourne has reached 36.4 this must be some kind of record for the first half of the month and maybe our earliest day over 35 degrees, anyone know what the record stands at?
     
  49. mochon

    mochon First Runs

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    give it another ninety years ,and if i am alive by some miraculous scientific discovery, i will post "i told you so".
     
  50. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    So WHAT are you going to tell, and to WHOM??
     
    #50 Sandy, Oct 12, 2006
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