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Question How much is a big dump (like this one) ‘worth’ ?

Discussion in 'Snow Talk' started by woggybot, May 29, 2019.

  1. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    in the context of a big, unexpected dump just before opening weekend? It must create a vibe.
    More accommodation bookings where there normally wouldn’t be any...
    More tourists than usual....
    More skiers and boarders....more rentals....etc.
    How much?
     
  2. Darb

    Darb Old n' Crusty

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  3. Chaeron

    Chaeron One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    May just bring forward spending, rather than increase it.
     
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  4. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Commercially, there's no snow like early snow.
     
  5. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow before school holidays = viable snow industry
    Snow after school holiday = sad Pandas
     
  6. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Can equate to a very quiet Spring but .... booyah frothing wallets kick off
     
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  7. currawong

    currawong Old but not so Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not quite that simple IMHO. A lot of people will go in school holidays even if snow is petty poor. August will also have pretty solid bookings. Good snow increases bookings for late July and for september, and to some extent for June.

    Other factors come in too. 2000 was the best early snow I've ever seen but commercially it was a bad year. The combination of the GST kicking in and the Olympics in August defeated fantastic snow.

    Lift companies are getting more resilient (at least in the medium term) to bad years with strong incentives for early ticket purchases. I think commercial accom is the most exposed.
     
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  8. Richard

    Richard Maintenance Dept Administrator

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    I'm putting a wet finger in the air and saying about $200~240M. I reckon it boosts skier days by 10% on the mean season total which would be approx 200,000 across the industry and a skier day is worth $100~$120 in the aggregate in total spending.

    Back of napkin calculation.

    Edit: To be clear. I'm talking about the effect an early start to a skiable season has. Not on slope activity this one week in May per se.
     
    #8 Richard, May 29, 2019
    Last edited: May 30, 2019
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  9. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    It is invaluable as we have a base, just like last year. It will harden up and be the bottom of the snow we get to ski on.
     
  10. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    you might get a lot more blow-ins from Canberra visting Perisher or Thredbo for the opening weekend. If I lived there I'd certainly like to enjoy the opening weekend vib with snow, but I don't think I'd consider doing opening weekend if there was no snow
     
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  11. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    The shoulders are weaker - with good reason- my guess is that it’s of great benefit to the early bookings but at this stage (until the season unfolds) it is of little benefit to the last shoulder.
     
  12. sastrugi

    sastrugi At the centre of it all Ski Pass: Gold

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    2000 was a brilliant year to be living on snow for oh so many reasons :D
     
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  13. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Anyone whos serious knows to start looking at the cams in early August. Íts not even proper winter until 21 June.
     
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  14. currawong

    currawong Old but not so Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sort of

    Don't expect good cover till august but no harm keeping an eye on things from the start - especially if you can do day trips or have cheap accom and can react quickly. Locals' delight when there is really good snow in June
     
  15. Legs Akimbo

    Legs Akimbo Grumblebum Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pulling theories out of my backside, but what about the following season? Does it give people more confidence with advance bookings?
     
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  16. currawong

    currawong Old but not so Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Certainly used to be that bookings were up the year after a good season. Not sure if that effect is still as strong.
     
  17. Arsas

    Arsas One of Us

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    Skiing for the majority of Australians is a very expensive exercise that takes a lot of time to organise. Annual leave has to be booked, its not a thing the majority of people will just do last minute. I don't think opening early will have that much effect in the next few weeks. The majority of people that will make use of opening early are the locals (within in a 2-3 hours) and diehard's like on this forum who chase the snow. These people wont stay in town, cause they will just drive home or the diehards will camp/caravan/lodge cause that's the way to make skiing the whole season doable.
    The Station still has vacancies and Airbnb has 162 properties avaliable for the long weekend.
    IMO this early snow will make peak season busier, and people who were undecided about booking will now make a booking.
    The ski shops will benefit from the early snow as it will get people thinking about buying new gear.
     
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  18. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yup
     
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  19. currawong

    currawong Old but not so Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    and there you have it: the difference between skiers and people who ski
     
  20. Richard

    Richard Maintenance Dept Administrator

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    Yes. It’s a known. Early accom bookings following a solid year are always strong. Conversely early accom bookings are thin following a shocker.

    Suspect season pass sales were exactly the same up until Perisher disrupted the way they got sold with the first Epic pass five or six years ago. (Think the Epic Pass was called something else before the Vail purchase).
     
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  21. Arsas

    Arsas One of Us

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    Yep. Most people I know that go to the snow, only go once a year for a weekend or a week and it is booked well in advance and that's the only time they go. It doesn't matter if its a great season or bad season.
     
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  22. nezumi

    nezumi One of Us

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    The Freedom pass?
     
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  23. nezumi

    nezumi One of Us

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    Dream scenario for me - season rental in Bright / Mt Beauty, work from home on my own schedule. Have a pass that allows me to go up the hill whenever I please, as well as the flexibility to say that a good morning's effort is sufficient, then head home for lunch knowing that I can do it all again tomorrow (no need to ride the lifts from open to close).
     
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  24. Hully

    Hully One of Us

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    "If you don't do it this year you'll be one year older when you do"
     
  25. zac150

    zac150 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    This^^^^^^

    Not out of the backside at all! We have had the few vacant days in June now taken up so are fully booked through to late September.

    I find that a lot of these people will also book early for next year as the agents will let them know the unit they booked, booked out early.

    We had really strong bookings this year after last year.

    More importantly though after a bad year forward bookings can be slow so early snow boosts confidence and really has a positive effect!

    I would say that the resorts opening early costs them! As most people have season tickets so they aren’t going to make that much on the day trippers.
     
  26. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yup, I’m working with a locum at the moment who is a “Thredbo skier”. She has booked one weekend in September for her skiing this season!
     
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  27. Hot_ham on Rye

    Hot_ham on Rye Hard Yards

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  28. zac150

    zac150 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hahaha

    I can see how that conversation went, what was her face like when you said you will get 50 days on your pass
     
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  29. currawong

    currawong Old but not so Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    The fortunes of the lift co and other mountain businesses can be quite different. Small places that can operate with few staff (maybe just the owners) can do quite nicely out of early snow. Quote a few businesses won't open for a few weeks whatever happens. Putting on staff and then having very little business till school holidays is not very attractive
     
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  30. zac150

    zac150 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    When I say it costs them I mean the resorts, these days most skiers that are likely to change plans and head to the snow this weekend, will have a season pass.

    Sure some of the shops in the area will benefit from the extra foot traffic in the area, but I don’t think some of the earlier claims millions are correct.

    That said I’m sure there is something in the promotion that is going on but I think these are a loss leader. Selwyn putting on free skiing is clearly aimed at getting the day trippers who sled to try skiing in the hope they will come back later in the year.

    Perisher I’m sure are playing on the idea of promoting we open earlier and close later, we are better. Trying to pick up the occasional skier later in the year.
     
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  31. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thredbo’s capability to draw income from each and every visitor must surely be an advantage? It has mountain-owned equipment hire, bar, bistro, bakery, restaurants, single-trip tickets, hotel and booking service.
     
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  32. Legs Akimbo

    Legs Akimbo Grumblebum Ski Pass: Gold

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    And rents in Thredbo are turnover rents, so they get a percentage of every buck spent in every non-company outlet.
     
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  33. sastrugi

    sastrugi At the centre of it all Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sounds a bit like me this year :whistle:
     
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  34. currawong

    currawong Old but not so Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    In vic the fortunes of lift co and resort can also be quite different. Early snow will be costing the resort. There is a minimum leval of service that they need to provide. I don't know what their deal is with 4site (who do shuttles, oversnow, carparking, freight and other services) but I'm guessing they will be paying extra this year and it won't be covered by additional visitors. They will probably need patrollers for toboggan slope, extra road clearing, visitor info ... On qbw the lift co can choose how few lifts to open and contain costs. They would probably try to get away with halleys, towers and mousetrap even if there was a metre of snow.
     
  35. OlCol

    OlCol Hard Yards

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    IMO it is worth a lot. Nearly everything booked out in Jindy this weekend. 4 days ago there were loads of vacancies. These people will spend on food, hire as well, so Perisher and Selwyn have done good for local business. Have not heard if Thredbo have opened???
     
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  36. Tonester

    Tonester Lift Line Nazi Ski Pass: Gold

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    As booking officer for our lodge, I can report that booking and enquiries have increased in the last few days. Lots of people hold off until they are certain of the conditions or, at the very least, there is an optimistic outlook.
    This solid, early dump is an absolute windfall for all stakeholders. People can book with a certain level of confidence.
    About a week ago we had a huge block of vacancies in the second week of August. This is unusual for August. Now.....gone!
     
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