Hurricane Irma

Discussion in 'Weather' started by trappers, Sep 1, 2017.

  1. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed
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    You think Harvey was bad ... his Big Sister is about to turn up and beat him oops up side the head.

    She will be *absolutely* massive. The Caribbean islands / Florida are in her firing line.
     
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  2. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed
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  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Yeah, Levi (@ Tropical Tidbits) is doing an awesome job breaking it down. It sure is looking ominous...
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Not looking good on the progs...
    GFS says it could rival worldwide lowest pressure records (870hPa). EC has it bottoming out @ 910hPa
     
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    I'd be looking at an exit plan if I was anywhere on the East Coast south of Charleston,SC.[​IMG]
     
  6. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed
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    Yeah but Ryan Maue (Who I respect a lot) said

    Ryan Maue‏Verified account @RyanMaue
    Since July model changes, GFS has hyper-intense hurricanes and typhoons. Not realistic to have 878 mb ... maybe 40 mb too deep.
     
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  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Let's face it it comes as no surprise, it is GFS afterall.
     
  8. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed
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    She is just soooooooo..... bloooooddddyyyyy slllowwwww

    sucking up all that moisture and heat in a beautiful low shear environment that she is dragging with her: Check out this anim of shear and tendency, see the low shear zone just following her.
    http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/movies/wg8sht/wg8shtjava.html

    SSTs are not actually that warm ~28-29C but there is a fair amount of moisture and she is so slow there is no real chance for macroscale advective dry air ingress.
     
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  9. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed
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    Track has shifted westward. Still a long way out, but that is the wrong direction
     
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  10. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed
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  11. POW_hungry

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    This is not going to end well.
     
  12. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed
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    The twittersphere is having a meltdown after the latest gfs run which has her bullseying Miami at 880 hPa ?!?!? So early it is a bit alarmist and unhelpful.
     
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  13. Donzah

    Donzah Dedicated Member
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    Grand banks real estate just took a dive.
    Great surf there soon though you'd expect.
     
  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    So on par with yesterdays! Phark, even if it's over-cooked and bottoms out at 900hPa, it'll be bigger than Katrina & Mitch. And the deepest on record as far as I can see.
     
  15. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    Should we be taking those pressures with a grain of salt due to the apparent glitch in the July GFS update referred to above?
     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    That was my thought when @trappers mentioned it.. Looks overcooked, but even EC puts in 930 category, cat 4/5 range...
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Latest projections put it on top of all leeward islands on it way to FL.
     
  18. filski

    filski Old And Crusty
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    Stunning, check out that internal rotation at the eye

     
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  19. POW_hungry

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    Some nice clear banding in the time-lapse too. Clear uppers says it's also got good, solid formation.
     
  20. Rush

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  21. POW_hungry

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    RE: That last tweet - I can't bring myself to read that dialogue in the link. Makes me sick just scanning the first starting lines.
     
  22. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU Dedicated Member
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    Agree. What a colossal moron. It is all well and good to have a view on climate change but to go so far as to say it is to benefit the media and retailers is plainly stupid. If anything that will make the less informed masses believe the hurricane is NOT as strong and therefore not act...
     
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  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    No doubt the shoe would be on the other foot if his house was totaled by a Cat5 in the next 10 days.
     
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  24. Fandango

    Fandango Active Member

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    Some of the comments are good :
    It's Obama's shadow government. They have weather machines, it's all part of a plan to hurt the economy and thus President Trump! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" lulz
     
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  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Latest runs have it bottoming out as 892hPa & 930hPa for GFS & EC respectively.
    CMC has it at at a shallow 963hPa with a recurve to the NE - If only that was realistically on the cards.

    The broadening of the ridge over NE US and the upper level low off the Northern east coast will determine where this thing will end up IMO.
     
  26. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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    Areas of Florida could be destroyed.




     
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  27. teckel

    teckel Old And Crusty
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    I think I'd be flying out to Houston. (Or anywhere else away from the east coast.)
     
  28. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    Houston then Miami... . Imagine if folk in those places believed in a vengeful and interventialist god. ;)
     
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  29. LMB

    LMB Old And Crusty
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    I was thinking the same thing @teckel
    Although then your car might end up trashed left behind. You've got time, grab your important documents and photos, essentials, chuck them in the car with the family and get the hell out of dodge. Far far away, on a little vacation until it's all over. Being nearby isn't going to change the devastation or lack there of.

    That's a ridiculously huge system if reports are right.
     
  30. teckel

    teckel Old And Crusty
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    Your car's insured? Leave it at the airport.
     
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  31. teckel

    teckel Old And Crusty
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    I think many of them do. They shouldn't have voted for Trump ;)
     
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  32. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    915!
     
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  33. D-eye

    D-eye Photographer and skier
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  34. teckel

    teckel Old And Crusty
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  35. POW_hungry

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    2 mass destructive hurricanes, the continuation of war in the Middle East, spruiking nuclear war with Eastern Asia (financial war included) and an attempt to build a wall bigger than China' greatest for the lowest of reasons...

    ...America's GDP will surely take a battering (like it's international diplomacy) this year.
     
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  36. POW_hungry

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    +22C @ 3000m (flight level) inside the eye wall. This thing eats ocean temps for breakfast....
    7C loss in temp for 3,000m - that's quite a lapse rate.

    And to put the winds in context, sustained winds are already +30km/h stronger than Yasi (Cat5 NE QLD 2011)
     
  37. GS

    GS Addicted Member
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    Amazing, how do we harness that power.
     
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  38. Rush

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  39. trappers

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    Currently gusts to 195 kts that is 361km/h ... latest JTWC

     
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  40. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed
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    Degrading due to land interaction but slight movement changes could change that
     
  41. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
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    This has got mega disaster written all over it.....
    Strongest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded. Skirting across most of the Caribbean islands before hitting Florida.
     
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  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Sorry Trappers, I am finding it hard to read that, is that progged or observed?!
     
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  43. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed
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    The "current" 06zulu (GMT) 6/9/17 is calibrated, the rest is the jtwc best estimate.
     
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  44. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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  45. tele-whippet

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  46. Seth

    Seth Old And Crusty
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    Wow. That is scary.
     
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  47. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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    That might not be Irma. I'm pretty sure this is
     
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  48. Seth

    Seth Old And Crusty
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    :eek:
     
  49. Darb

    Darb Old And Crusty
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    That's insane. Bith those videos cut out right when a savage gust comes through that trumps the minute or so prior. Crazy.
     
  50. Zeroz

    Zeroz Dedicated Member
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    Hurricanes and other natural disasters are good for GDP. There's a dip in activity after the destruction, but GDP gets a huge boost from the rebuilding and construction.

    Destroying a building doesn't subtract from GDP, but constructing a building adds to it. Human misery isn't counted.

    In 12 months Trump will use the GDP numbers to claim his policies are working.
    Which, given his approach to climate and it's impact on hurricanes, they actually are.