Hurricane Hurricane Irma

trappers

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trappers

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Not looking good on the progs...
GFS says it could rival worldwide lowest pressure records (870hPa). EC has it bottoming out @ 910hPa
3-09-2017 2-32-47 PM.jpg
Yeah but Ryan Maue (Who I respect a lot) said

Ryan Maue‏Verified account @RyanMaue
Since July model changes, GFS has hyper-intense hurricanes and typhoons. Not realistic to have 878 mb ... maybe 40 mb too deep.
 
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trappers

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She is just soooooooo..... bloooooddddyyyyy slllowwwww

sucking up all that moisture and heat in a beautiful low shear environment that she is dragging with her: Check out this anim of shear and tendency, see the low shear zone just following her.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/movies/wg8sht/wg8shtjava.html

SSTs are not actually that warm ~28-29C but there is a fair amount of moisture and she is so slow there is no real chance for macroscale advective dry air ingress.
 
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Donza

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Grand banks real estate just took a dive.
Great surf there soon though you'd expect.
 

POW Hungry

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The twittersphere is having a meltdown after the latest gfs run which has her bullseying Miami at 880 hPa ?!?!? So early it is a bit alarmist and unhelpful.
So on par with yesterdays! Phark, even if it's over-cooked and bottoms out at 900hPa, it'll be bigger than Katrina & Mitch. And the deepest on record as far as I can see.
 

DiscoStuAU

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RE: That last tweet - I can't bring myself to read that dialogue in the link. Makes me sick just scanning the first starting lines.
Agree. What a colossal moron. It is all well and good to have a view on climate change but to go so far as to say it is to benefit the media and retailers is plainly stupid. If anything that will make the less informed masses believe the hurricane is NOT as strong and therefore not act...
 
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POW Hungry

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Agree. What a colossal moron. It is all well and good to have a view on climate change but to go so far as to say it is to benefit the media and retailers is plainly stupid. If anything that will make the less informed masses believe the hurricane is NOT as strong and therefore not act...
No doubt the shoe would be on the other foot if his house was totaled by a Cat5 in the next 10 days.
 

POW Hungry

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Latest runs have it bottoming out as 892hPa & 930hPa for GFS & EC respectively.
CMC has it at at a shallow 963hPa with a recurve to the NE - If only that was realistically on the cards.

The broadening of the ridge over NE US and the upper level low off the Northern east coast will determine where this thing will end up IMO.
 

Rush

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Areas of Florida could be destroyed.

A mate of mine said:
Hurricane Irma, as a cat 5 looks pretty scary. I've been chatting to a friend about what to do, with his water frontage in Miami and the current emergency services advice - it's clear it's best to evacuate as soon as possible.

The messages from media and government are clear but what's not clear is where to go, and where would actually be safe. Miami, and Florida is like a sieve, lakes channels throughout and only a few metres above sea level. I thought Gold Coast was bad, but at least there's higher elevation around and that is quite obvious (although the accommodation options less so). The only advice is to book a hotel and book it early, or find friends or family to stay with somewhere safe.

Three hours drive from Miami only buys an extra 20+metres of elevation, 7-8 hours takes you up to just over 60m above sea level (that's Orlando through to Tallahassee) while staying away from the coastlines and heading away from the storm track. I figure that elevation and distance from the coast, and away from the current TC track are good combined factors to guide you to safety. I just wonder how others are managing this decision given the i95 is the main highway, which will be jam packed full of cars and runs along the low lying Florida coastline and on top of trying to prepare their homes, get supplies, tank up the car, and general stress and panic. Seems pretty dire but it's the early hours of Wednesday with an unclear track of for Irma in terms of Miami, but if it heads there it's likely to hit Saturday, so not quite time for mass panic.

There's about as much notice as anyone can hope for with these events so at least we'll know where isn't safe and being able to move away from that area. But in such a precarious region with such a large population which will be on the move, and the time to plan this, I would've thought there'd be some thought put into clear messages as to where people should go... Flights and trains are full, petrol stations empty, shops running out of supplies as well... But, that's testament to people preparing and taking heed of advice. Lets hope the guidance for weather services, emergency management and coordinated messages in the media and all those taking action right now really pay off in keeping everyone safe!

And of course not being a local if there's any info anyone has would appreciate it to pass on to those in the thick of it (already found some great links to emergency services, national hurricane centre updates, evacuation zones etc.)
 

LMB

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I think I'd be flying out to Houston. (Or anywhere else away from the east coast.)
I was thinking the same thing @teckel
Although then your car might end up trashed left behind. You've got time, grab your important documents and photos, essentials, chuck them in the car with the family and get the hell out of dodge. Far far away, on a little vacation until it's all over. Being nearby isn't going to change the devastation or lack there of.

That's a ridiculously huge system if reports are right.
 

teckel

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I was thinking the same thing @teckel
Although then your car might end up trashed left behind. You've got time, grab your important documents and photos, essentials, chuck them in the car with the family and get the hell out of dodge. Far far away, on a little vacation until it's all over. Being nearby isn't going to change the devastation or lack there of.

That's a ridiculously huge system if reports are right.
Your car's insured? Leave it at the airport.
 
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POW Hungry

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2 mass destructive hurricanes, the continuation of war in the Middle East, spruiking nuclear war with Eastern Asia (financial war included) and an attempt to build a wall bigger than China' greatest for the lowest of reasons...

...America's GDP will surely take a battering (like it's international diplomacy) this year.
 

POW Hungry

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+22C @ 3000m (flight level) inside the eye wall. This thing eats ocean temps for breakfast....
7C loss in temp for 3,000m - that's quite a lapse rate.

And to put the winds in context, sustained winds are already +30km/h stronger than Yasi (Cat5 NE QLD 2011)
 

Zeroz

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2 mass destructive hurricanes, the continuation of war in the Middle East, spruiking nuclear war with Eastern Asia (financial war included) and an attempt to build a wall bigger than China' greatest for the lowest of reasons...

...America's GDP will surely take a battering (like it's international diplomacy) this year.
Hurricanes and other natural disasters are good for GDP. There's a dip in activity after the destruction, but GDP gets a huge boost from the rebuilding and construction.

Destroying a building doesn't subtract from GDP, but constructing a building adds to it. Human misery isn't counted.

In 12 months Trump will use the GDP numbers to claim his policies are working.
Which, given his approach to climate and it's impact on hurricanes, they actually are.
 
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