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Impact of Current El Nino on North America

Discussion in 'Passport' started by bogong_flyer, Oct 6, 2006.

  1. bogong_flyer

    bogong_flyer First Runs

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    Don't want to put too much of a dampener on people's up-coming holiday plans but fore-warned is fore-armed...

    It seems like the El Nino that wreaked the Australian ski season will also have a negative impact on the coming North American season with warmer and drier than normal conditions expected over winter. The southern parts of the US (from east to west) may conversely be cooler and wetter than normal.

    The latest advice from the US Climate Prediction Centre is suggesting that the El Nino will last through the northern winter into spring.

    If you have the flexibility, it could be a case of waiting to see what the conditions are before committing yourself - particularly if you have some geographic options.

    Then again a bad season in many North American resorts are better than the best season likely in Australia.
     
    #1 bogong_flyer, Oct 6, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013
  2. Zeroz

    Zeroz A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    As always, Tony Crocker has analysed this. Crocker is an actuary who loves skiing and weather analysis. Perfect combo for this stuff.

    He has done a resort by resort analysis for El Nono and La Nina.

    http://members.aol.com/crockeraf/MEI_corr.htm

    Conclusions
    El Nino strongly favors only Southern California, Arizona and far southern Utah, with milder effects extending to the southern Sierra and New Mexico.

    Examination of the 12 strongest seasons of El Nino and La Nina show that the negative effects are fairly consistent, tending to lower snowfall an average of 10-15% during the unfavored condition. Positive effects tend to vary with the strength of the El Nino or La Nina episode. In El Nino years the only big destination resorts that are favored are Mammoth and Taos, with both of those in the mild category.

    For the numerous areas that are not favored, my general advice to avoid advance bookings until sufficient snow is on the ground should be taken more seriously, particularly where average snowfall is modest and there is less margin for error. High snow areas like Jackson, Fernie and Steamboat are probably still just fine during their normally prime months of January and February.
     
    #2 Zeroz, Oct 6, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  3. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Zero S: And others, how do u intepret that table ?

    Not sure how to read it [​IMG] :doh:
     
    #3 skiflat, Oct 6, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  4. Zeroz

    Zeroz A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I read it as Lan Nina and El Nino are opposites. So:

    "Strongly favored by El Nino" is also "Strongly disfavored by La Nina"
    and
    "Strongly favored by La Nina" = Strongly disfavored by El Nino"

    And the ones on the right are neither.
     
  5. Big Pink Bits

    Big Pink Bits Hard Yards

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    What a load of horse shat. If you can predict whether 3 days ahead you are doing pretty good. No one can predict weather accurately more than 3 days out. Its just a guess.
     
  6. Xcape

    Xcape Old n' Crusty

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    What about Europe?
     
  7. Zeroz

    Zeroz A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes, this statistics stuff is witchcraft! The Bureau of Meteorology is staffed by charlatans. Worship the only one who speaks the truth - Tim Bailey!
     
  8. alex405

    alex405 First Runs

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    [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
    #8 alex405, Oct 6, 2006
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  9. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    I'd be happy with that, Vail and Aspen are on the right, - Not favoured

    Mammoth - Is favoured [​IMG]

    As Bogong said, the worst US snow year is still better than the best Aus Snow year in most cases.
     
    #9 skiflat, Oct 6, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  10. Big Pink Bits

    Big Pink Bits Hard Yards

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    The BoM is ok three days out. But if we are talking longer than that I guess you may as well listen to Tim Baily because his guess is just as worthless as anyone elses guess.
     
    #10 Big Pink Bits, Oct 6, 2006
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  11. danc72

    danc72 First Runs

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    Obviously your going to North America.
     
    #11 danc72, Oct 6, 2006
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  12. Xcape

    Xcape Old n' Crusty

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    obviously it doesn't affect Europe
     
  13. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    #13 skiflat, Oct 6, 2006
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  14. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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  15. paedde

    paedde First Runs

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    Discussions about the long range forecasts are so useless. Now after reading 4 long range forecasts for the western US and 3 of them about Austria, Switzerland, France and Italy I know exactly how it is going to be

    Long range forecast for western US as well as Europe:

    We will have a very early, early, late, very late start of the winter. Temperatures are going to be well below, below, on average, above average or even well above average. First dump around October, November, December, or even as late as January and last big dump around January, February, March, April or even in May. The total amount of snow will be well below, below, on average, above average or even well above average. There will be a short period of extreme cold or eventually extreme warm weather.

    Yes that’s how it’s going to be – maybe, maybe not, eventually or not at all….

    I hope this will help [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
    #15 paedde, Oct 9, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  16. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    paedde: Exactly right [​IMG]
     
    #16 skiflat, Oct 9, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  17. Big Pink Bits

    Big Pink Bits Hard Yards

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  18. Taipan

    Taipan Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Spot on paedde.

    Oh paedde didnt you know they can now predict the climate 100 years out.
     
  19. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Back to a more serious note though.

    El Nino - For Australia at least means dry and as discusseed in the official articles will impact some US/Canadian resorts.
     
  20. sly_karma

    sly_karma Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    The impact of El Nino is fairly well documented as the article showed. But weather/climate folks can never agree on predicitng the El Nino cycle either. We're usually well and truly in the middle of one before they officially acknowledge that it's actually here.

    More than 3 days ahead is harder to pick than a broken nose.
     
  21. paedde

    paedde First Runs

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    [​IMG] [​IMG]

    Request for 21.1. - 23.3.07 snooooow like last year please
    :woohoo:
     
    #21 paedde, Oct 9, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  22. Altitude theory

    Altitude theory First Runs

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    Good thing i am heading back to Mammoth then....
     
  23. Taipan

    Taipan Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    paedde ive followed your adventures through your wonderful photo's. You dont need any help from me. [​IMG] [​IMG]

    But now you mention it id like about 20cm - 40cm of fresh powder every night for the period 23/12/06 - 17/1/07 and clear skies every day.

    I remember on an old warren miller movie, they asked a guy about his best overnight snow fall and he said it wasnt an overnight fall but a month of overnight falls. (I think it was like Telliride and it was a January from memory.)

    Everynight they would go to bed and the clouds would roll in and it would snow fresh powder, and every day they would get up and the clouds would clear and they would go out and track fresh powder.

    Good luck and good powder hunting.

    Go early before the crowds.

    :out:
     
    #23 Taipan, Oct 10, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  24. bogong_flyer

    bogong_flyer First Runs

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    I thought the following images provide a clearer indication of the implications of El Nino around the world.

    Each El Nino is a unique event and will have different impacts each time around. So the map is a guide to what has an increased likelihood of happening - not a definitive indication of what WILL happen.

    [​IMG]

    I would just be a bit more wary of committing to going to a region that might be adversely impacted - at least until the snow starts to accumulate in November.

    By the way, as we saw this year in Australia when we got good snowfalls in April and May, I wouldn't get too excited about early snowfalls just yet.
     
    #24 bogong_flyer, Oct 11, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  25. Mark102

    Mark102 A Local

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    Bummer! Japan may be warm.
     
  26. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    I can handle "Wet" and Wet And Cool" [​IMG]
     
    #26 skiflat, Oct 11, 2006
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  27. McNads

    McNads One of Us

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    Though Japan my be "warmer" then ususal I would not be too concerned. I did a bit of research in the Rusutsu & Furano thread for the impact of el-nino on Hokkaido snowfall and there really is nothing to worry about.

    The research is towards the top of page 6 of that thread.
     
  28. devo

    devo First Runs

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    WINTER OUTLOOK: Regarding this winter, we have a developing El Nino sea surface temperature pattern in the Pacific. The latest (Sep 13th) is that we may see a moderate El Nino SST pattern this winter. We expect the following this winter; A good shot at seeing more snowfall than average for southern Colorado, and less snowfall than average for northern Colorado...in general. We do think winter will start off with a bang though, with possibly more snowfall than usual through December. Many times in an El Nino pattern, we are also dealing with snow levels being a bit high on average as the moisture source is usually subtropical, but this is rarely an issue for high elevation Colorado resorts. The time this pattern seems to be most pronounced is January onward. We will watch and see how this develops.

    Taken from Snowforecast.com - Colorado
     
    #28 devo, Oct 12, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  29. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    According to some theories about El Nino, the jetsteams across north America break into a far northern and southern jetstreams, providing wetter conditions in the south(Sierra Nevada & southern Rockies), and warmer, drier conditions in the northern Rockies, from say, Utah through to Canada.
     
  30. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    devo: We have established that quote many weeks ago now [​IMG] It's on the Governments weather forecast website.

    There are starting to be some updated come throught which indicate that the ElNino may NOT hang around for all of winter and my die out by Xmas !

    Wait and see I guess
     
    #30 skiflat, Oct 12, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013