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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Hunter, May 4, 2006.
True or false ?
media department in full swing
Well you can put a cross through number 3 RE. La Nina its gonna be a nutral year this winter! And John more if he keeps saying the same think every year he might get it right! The other i cant comment on wouldnt have a clue.
Launceston and Hobart have had their coldest april respectivly since records began in the 1850s
Global warming in full swing
Strike off #2 as well. Since when has Lake Eyre having water in it been a sign of a good winter to come?!
i'm always nervous about snow in april...expecting stacks of blocking highs and no real base development till late july if we're lucky.
This is one of the more impressive media beat-ups in recent years. Are they holding a competition between the resorts to see who can fabricate the most impressive press release from the least credible sources?
Is it just me or every season do we go:
'Didnt see that season coming'
No usually by mid May - the old timers on here start to get pretty close to feeling the season. Sometimes its obvious, other times it gives no indication till very late.
Well since i have started following the aus. snow weather in 2000, i do consider that lake Eyre being full a good indicator of a good season.
but meh, watching charts for 5 years is nothing in this game.
My personal hope and praying is probably contributing a fair bit, oh and murpheys law.
Last yar i bought a season pass, and only just got my value from it, this year i have decided not to, thus murphey's law mans i will end up spending stacks more than a season pass on tickets!
Something we have seen this summer is a very active and late monsoon season, I remember Falls Expat saying something about he monsoon troughs etc but can't remember just now.
We need moore information. The moore we look into it, the moore above average this season looks. In fact, we have never had a moore consistent run of above average season than since the farmer was around. Every one has been moore above average than the last, which means the average is getting moore and moore.
La Nina does NOT mean colder and wetter. A strong La nina usually means WARMER and wetter, so this statement is meaningless.
Hmmm the ants at home have been going up tree's and i saw swallows heading north west so undoubtedly it will be a massive season...all you disbelievers get on board. :no:
Sooo whose made their sacrifices to the snow gods early this year?
Could not find a virgin...
Lake Eyre being full of water is interesting as I rememeber at the start of the 2000 season some people forecasting it would be a big season because of this. I think the last time it was full before that was 1976 and then maybe back in the 50's or 60's. The lake being full is more to do with the monsoon as the flow comes from Queensland channel country.
Has anyone spoken to their Gypsy????
Stay on topic.
Spiceman, from memory I thought an active monsoon in the north could possibly be linked to winter snows by stronger convection in the tropics enhancing walker circulation which, in turn, leads to the sub tropical high pressure belt over Australia being more intense and persistent.
Not sure what this would mean for the Australian ski season, I suppose it would depend on the positioning of the high pressure, if its too far south than no snow for us, if its sits more northerly then maybe the stronger high pressure would generate a stronger westerly belt to the south which would mean more active frontal systems for us and more snow! especially when we have cooler than normal SST's in the southern ocean like we do now (I think I remember reading somewhere colder SST's down south lead to stronger frontal systems in the Southern Ocean).
Anyway, I've gone off on a speculative ramble there. Based on that though I guess my own prediction for the early season is it will be a good one... we have strong monsoonal activity, highs a fair way north for this time of year and a colder than usual southern ocean. Now let the experts pick all the holes in my very amateur theory of what makes a big snow year!
Noelene Lee, mother of Steve, has lived in the mountains for what seems a million years, (sorry Noels if you read this).
She always reckons that snow in April is usually a bad prognostic sign, but I've never bothered to check that with the stats over the years. Any statisticians out there who can back that up??
emulet: some years it seems were bad with april snows, other years its been good. Dont think theres a big correlation here!
The only reason that snow in April is bad is cause the lifts don't open til June. As Sandy said before La Nina is wet but also warm.
Anyone also mentioned that we have just had just about the warmest summer on record, does this also point to a great season?
Number 4's a sack of poop. Bay and heads temps are holding up quite well recently as we had quite a harsh transition from summer to winter.
Diving at the moment pegs you at about 16C dropping to low/slightly below teens in deeper water around the 40m's or so.
Frog but Perth had one of the coldest summer's for ages.... would like to see that stats on it. I didn't think summer was as hot this year in Qld for the time I was there DEC/JAN but then my anecdotal evidence means NOTHING... Blue Hue I like the way your thinking, yes the walker circulation, I have to go back and read some more now...
Spiceman u r kiddin.
It was hot and it stayed hot for ages.
We had the hottest summer average on record up here. Me thinks.
Ah well lets all pray for a late season Qld Sept holidays have been pushed back this year.
The positioning of the sub tropical high pressure belt this year bodes well for cold outbreaks. I haven't seen it this far north for quite some years. Its not a good sign for rain in the Sydney catchment but fronts should be regular this season but just how much moisture is associated with them is the question.
La Nina means the following:
The term La NiÃ±a refers to the extensive cooling of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. In Australia (particularly eastern Australia), La NiÃ±a events are associated with increased probability of wetter conditions.
Consequently all indications are for a colder and wetter winter t5han past years for Eastern Australia!
No, that's NOT correct!!!!
La Nina does NOT mean colder and wetter. A strong La Nina usually means WARMER and wetter.
The statement you have quoted says "wetter", not colder and wetter.
Anyway, welcome to the Weather Forum
The statement that early snow can mean a poor season is based on statistical probability.
You start with the assumption that this coming season will be average for snow. If an average season is an accumulated depth of 2.5 metres, (just a guess), and you get 0.3 metres in April, which subsequently melts, then that leaves only 2.2 metres for the rest of the season.
2.5 metres would be great... By the way accumulated depth is not the same as accumulated snow fall. While one impacts the other, it is not necessarily a great correlation because there are other factors at play. If 4 metres of snow actually falls and 2.5metres of it sticks throughout the season or rather we get a maximum depth of 2.5 and it stays around for a while that's great. However a season can have the same 4 metres fall and only a max depth of 190cms if it melts at the wrong times...
I thought readers would realise that the figures used were just for making the point! Who knows what the actual average accumulation is. BUT the more you get before opening that melts before opening, the less depth, than average, you'll get afterward.
Couldn't resist posting this
Its my own work.
The difference between me & moore is I sadly predict not so good seasons - eg 2005 & i don't sell my crappy predictions.
interesting that you note NO loss of snowdepth between july and the end of august.
Its a function of the prediction method.
Snow loss WILL happen.
The thing is WHEN it happens varies so much from season to season that it looking at the overall picture negates the loss, which is normally very small anyway - less than 10%
has anyone looked at the snow depth chart for 1982? early start but consistenly crap. Snow Depth and with the prediction its funny how you think we wont start getting serious falls until july.
I was there for 1982. You want to chat about a bad season, just ask me.
After the huge 1981, a hopeful early start to 1982, and then a completely lousy experience for the rest of the year.
that sux!! i hope we dont follow that pattern again!
Maybe we should look at 1996.
Qld holidays are later this year in Septmeber.
1991 would be better. I was there it went off in September.
1st week of July peak season lets get real.
My last dummy spit here.
This year wont follow that pattern, but last year did.
Can you expand on your graph?
All that shows is that most "4th" years(81,84,92,96,00,04, etc but there is a glitch with the graphs at 80/81) are above 225cm (except 1988 which rained a lot), and is then followed by a mostly average or well below average season.
(all but 4 below 150cm)
Nostradamus isn't predicting a particularly good season either.
that graph shows that 2005 probably won't be very good....... (not 2006)
Speaking of charts and things, I've created this hybrid 3D chart based on this document .
The main graph shows each year's snowdepth (each slice is a graph from the Snowy Hydro/South East Printing Cooma document; therefore, as a side note, they own the copyright), with the orange line traversing the peak snowdepth point of each year.
The bottom graph is maximum snowdepth reached for each year. The side graph is the point in each year that the maximum snowdepth was reached. Edit: Oops, I should note that the side graph goes from 1966 at the top to 2005 at the bottom.
Note that this is for interest only and doesn't necessarily have statistical value; the median snowdepth vectors would likely have more merit in establishing trends or patterns.
Anyway, just thought it might be of interest given the current discussion.
There was a massive negative (colder) anomaly in SSTs off the SW coast of WA this past summer which must have influenced the overall temperature. Having said that if the winds blew offshore easterly most days then this would not matter apart perhaps from stronger sea breezes.
SSTs off the coast of northern Queensland have also had a positive (warmer) SST anomaly which could account for the excess rain.
My theory about the Monsoon trough is that if you have a general areas of warmer SSTs over Indonesia and the western tropical Pacific then there is likely to be more convection and lower general surface pressure in the region. I believe lower pressure over the tropics provides an environment for sympathetic troughing in the subtropics and mid-latitudes. If this troughing occurs in the right area, say trough axis down the east coast of Australia, then this will allow cold polar air to penetrate further north than at a similar latitudes where there is supression of the tropical convection.
Further to the debate about this coming season. Sandy is right that if there is a strong La Nina this is likely to produce a wet, but warm season and probably lots of rain followed by snow scenarios. It is probably unlikely to be a shocker, but it could be poor in most peoples eyes if this was to occur.
Having said that the current indications are that it will not be a strong La Nina this winter but rather a weak La Nina. This I believe is a good indication using Sandy's SOI criteria for a better than average season.
The Noelene Lee theory was bandied about when I worked at Falls. "Early Snow means Early Finish" was often said. Along with the old favourite, the mountain cattlemen are bringing their cattle down early because they are predicting a long cold winter.
However, 1981 had masses of snow in late May early June, but so did 1988. 1981 was legendary, but 1988 we were skiing in the hiring clinic at Falls with a metre of solid base, but by the middle of July we were skiing between grass patches.
Water temps both in the bay and at the point nepean bouy are definately colder than the previous 5 years at the same time.
Am I right to assume that this could make air cooler at lower levels meaning more snow to lower levels?
It's true it may have some local effect around Melbourne, but it is hardly likely to affect the alps because Port Phillip Bay is so relatively small.
Have you ever watched thunderstorms roll across the bay on the radar?? It's astounding sometimes to see a storm around Geelong pick up huge amounts of moisture when it hits the middle of the bay. In this case, however, it's related to the relative WARMTH of the water rather than its coolness....
Something else I have noticed looking at current SST anomaly charts is that the cold pool off the WA coast has now been replaced by warmer than normal water and the cold SST pool seems to be enveloping SE Australia.
I think this is good for colder than average temperatures over SE Australia, but possibly bad for moisture and low pressure development. Although the latter is more dependent on jet streams and long wave troughs etc.
this is what Falls is talking about:
Chart for 8th May
Coastal SST around Sydney is still around 21C at the moment. I'm not sure if this is normal or near normal but it does seem warmer than normal for this time of the year. The chart posted by Sandy would appear to contradict that?
The alarming thing is that if the SST on the east coast has dropped then this usually doesn't bode well for winter rain for NSW and man do we need it.