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"Indications that point to a strong season "

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Hunter, May 4, 2006.

  1. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    TTT just thought I'd revive this thread to show how full it John Moore, and marketing bullcrap from the mountains is ... El Nino a thing of the past???? WTF?
     
  2. Gimble

    Gimble First Runs

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    Damn I was reading this thread without checking the dates on the posts!

    Well last year sure showed everyone here. This one is particularly entertaining:

    hmmm [​IMG] :rolleyes:
     
    #52 Gimble, Jan 12, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  3. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    best in 25 yrs coming..........(I hope) well perhaps a reasonable chance...please
     
  4. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    I can feel it in my waters
     
  5. Recon

    Recon Hard Yards

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    This really just proves what everyone already knew I suppose. I wonder what John Moore's forecast will be like for this year... ponders

    Speaking of this year...

     
    #55 Recon, Jan 13, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 26, 2013
  6. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    bloody hell......costello's gonna get the big gig. (sorry sandy).

    Yeah, nosy was the only one to pick 2006 a fair way out without the pressure of being paid.

    I dunno if it will be a good ski season, but its going to rain and rain.
     
  7. Recon

    Recon Hard Yards

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    Eh? I think if you go back and look at what his model forecast and what really happened, you'll find his model was nothing like accurate. The predictions for Aug/Sep were particularly off. Very few dates and snowfall amounts matched up and all of the big events were missing completely.

    He said "Aus snow season 2006 will be warm and wet to begin with but this will change in Aug for reasonable late season which will be a lot better."

    The season could hardly be described as "wet" - it was a very dry season, one of the driest on record for some places (certainly during August). And as for things changing in August for a reasonable late season, well...

    He also stated "My predictions are very conservative this year so total snow fall may be on the slightly higher side".
     
    #57 Recon, Jan 13, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  8. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I didnt say accuracy. No forecast i read was ACCURATE for 2006 (ie snowfall quantities at the date), but at least he said it was going to be crap. If you can point to a forecast that generally summed it up better, i am always happy to change my view.

    Yes he was wrong about the quantity of rain.

    Late season? Maybe wrong too, but I was at hotham late august when we got 25cm, which in the scheme of things was pretty good, (unless you include the 40cms at baw baw in november and december)
     
  9. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The way I understand it, Nostradamus's model depended a lot on the coming and goings of magnetic anomalies which are more reliable in their timing than other weather cycles/events we rely on to forecast with. If the forecast dates put forward for snow/rain do not match with what happened than the results to me seem dubious. Even then its hard to come up with a method for reliably measuring the accuracy of such forecasts.

    Of course having said that I have no comparison to make here, mainly cause I have had too many drinkies and can't focus but I do recall references to warm and wet storm events, the complete opposite to what we got.

    However, I have total respect for what Nostradamus is trying to do and hope Nosie keeps up the work on it and am willing to be proven wrong about the forecasts were made by Nostradamus for 2006.

    Maybe focussing on magnetic anomalies will or won't provide the whole answer, but there are so many parts to the puzzle that we will never answer the whole thing unless the likes of Nosi get into it and add their contribution, whether it turns out to be 5% or 90% of the total picture!

    It often seems to me that maybe some trying to understannd such things get to caught up on one or two factors and try to explain everything with those factors, but the reality may just be that there are many contributing factors and focussing in on one or two things blinds us to whatever else is happening.

    Time to go to bed and sleep it off.... I think I forgot my original point, whatever it was :goose:
     
  10. TC

    TC Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    a 1982 season has just passed us by
    wouldnt it be nice to get a 1981 season this year
     
  11. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    ...then (as above) we would get the best in 25yrs. It is due.......