Is 2017 Shaping Up To Be A Lean Season?

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Old School Mike, Jun 15, 2017.

  1. Old School Mike

    Old School Mike Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2017
    Messages:
    38
    Likes Received:
    140
    We are currently experiencing very dry conditions at the moment (symptomatic of an El Nino weather pattern) with no significant snow falls on the horizon. Will 2017 be a lean season?
     
  2. Slalom

    Slalom Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 17, 2013
    Messages:
    4,265
    Likes Received:
    3,451
  3. Richard

    Richard Addicted Member
    Administrator

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 1995
    Messages:
    9,584
    Likes Received:
    4,064
    Claude Cat and Froff Life like this.
  4. teckel

    teckel Old And Crusty
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2004
    Messages:
    35,634
    Likes Received:
    3,464
    Way too early to tell.
     
  5. chicski

    chicski Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2017
    Messages:
    1,638
    Likes Received:
    2,020
    Yeah pretty shit, only done 5 days so far.
     
    Ozgirl, alexd, nfip and 4 others like this.
  6. CarveMan

    CarveMan aussieskier.com
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 12, 2000
    Messages:
    66,427
    Likes Received:
    22,456
    this
     
    Chaeron likes this.
  7. absentskier

    absentskier Old And Crusty
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2010
    Messages:
    20,951
    Likes Received:
    9,793
    Could be the best 5 days of the season...

    :out:
     
  8. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2014
    Messages:
    3,610
    Likes Received:
    1,085
    Far too early to tell yet, but the signs do point to a cold and dyer than average season.
     
    Chaeron likes this.
  9. Seafm

    Seafm Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2014
    Messages:
    2,514
    Likes Received:
    1,565
    It's only how many days into the season so far? Last year Perisher had most runs open by the first week of July using man made snow only. Early days yet.
     
  10. chicski

    chicski Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2017
    Messages:
    1,638
    Likes Received:
    2,020
    Has been so far!
     
    telecrag, robbo mcs and hipo like this.
  11. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    3,702
    Likes Received:
    2,842
    Welcome Mike!
    Most seasonal forecasts including my own, lean towards an average season. Like @Froff Life said, it currently looks to be cold and dry for this season. The current dry conditions are being caused by a blocking high. Many long term forecasts show better snow conditions in late June and early July. We will just have to keep watching.
     
    Claude Cat and Froff Life like this.
  12. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    9,272
    Likes Received:
    7,703
    @Old School Mike Good to see you joined the forums buddy. The snow will come and hopefully the Main Range will be kind to us.
     
    Old School Mike likes this.
  13. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    11,216
    Likes Received:
    7,887
    blardy show off.
     
  14. teckel

    teckel Old And Crusty
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2004
    Messages:
    35,634
    Likes Received:
    3,464
    We had some early falls which raised the expectation of many. I never really expect much snow till July. June is a bonus.
     
  15. Sno Sno SNO

    Sno Sno SNO Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2016
    Messages:
    125
    Likes Received:
    62
    At least we all love having our best guess at what the season will bring...:)
     
  16. CarveMan

    CarveMan aussieskier.com
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 12, 2000
    Messages:
    66,427
    Likes Received:
    22,456
    This. I have three family birthdays a week apart in the 9th, 16th and 23rd of July and that's how I judge a ski season. If there's no snow in the 9th I don't worry, a week later I get a bit worried and by the 23rd I get really worried. But 2003 went berserk on the 23rd.
     
    nfip likes this.
  17. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    11,216
    Likes Received:
    7,887
    and last year went nuts after the lifts stopped turning....
    oh and welcome Old School Mike.
    tip : don't believe anything you read here.
    especially in the weather predictions ;)
     
    Chaeron and SMSkier like this.
  18. Mister Tee on snow shoes

    Mister Tee on snow shoes Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2015
    Messages:
    1,445
    Likes Received:
    1,182
    I always plan a Mt. Stirling trip for the last weekend of July. If there is no snow up high on that mountain by that date then we are all collectively rogered. If that happens then I will take my snow gear and go to N.Z. for a proper winter mountaineering fix.So far this plan has not had to be enacted.
     
  19. Zimboo

    Zimboo Addicted Member

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2014
    Messages:
    6,741
    Likes Received:
    2,721
    Yes, late July to early September is a shot season!!!!! Without the "rrrrrrrrrrr" in shot.
     
  20. gettingtooold

    gettingtooold Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2012
    Messages:
    3,575
    Likes Received:
    2,010
    Every season is what it is, and it's rare if there isn't at least several brilliant days. Just gotta get the timing right. My opening season starts on 1st July and finishes mid September. Anything out of that is a bonus.
     
    Sago, Chaeron, Ted Harper and 2 others like this.
  21. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2015
    Messages:
    52
    Likes Received:
    34
    They need to move school holidays back to August
     
    Chaeron, skichanger and CIRCA1962 like this.
  22. SMSkier

    SMSkier Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2016
    Messages:
    393
    Likes Received:
    1,656
    I had my best "in resort ski" around 23 October last year. Skinned up Olympic and Eyre. More snow than any other time of the season and it was high quality dry snow-not corn. We won't know till seasons end this year! Same as every other season.....,,
     
    nfip likes this.
  23. Zimboo

    Zimboo Addicted Member

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2014
    Messages:
    6,741
    Likes Received:
    2,721
    Nah, just send em away for 12 weeks in Summer. Bound to help them long term......just ask our US friends.
     
  24. Mister Tee on snow shoes

    Mister Tee on snow shoes Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2015
    Messages:
    1,445
    Likes Received:
    1,182
    My best day for snow in 2016 was Oct. 14th at Charlotte pass / Blue Lake/ Carruthers Peak.I am definitely going again up there , on that first weekend when NPWS open the gate from Perisher to C.P.
    Mt. Bogong will have snow but timing the weather window is the key.
     
  25. chicski

    chicski Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2017
    Messages:
    1,638
    Likes Received:
    2,020
    Jealous? :p
     
  26. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    11,216
    Likes Received:
    7,887
    you betcha !!! LOL
    edit : get our baby back , after 6 months away , on Tuesday so has taken the sting out of it ....
     
    chicski likes this.
  27. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    9,272
    Likes Received:
    7,703
    Mike leading the way to the lunch rock Carruthers Nov. 6 ;)
     

    Attached Files:

    ladycamper, Ian, Chaeron and 10 others like this.
  28. Kappy

    Kappy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2010
    Messages:
    245
    Likes Received:
    316
    Here's hoping for some consistent if not huge early July so there will at least be a 'all mountain base' by mid july. I'm not asking for too much am i?
     
  29. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    11,216
    Likes Received:
    7,887
    I remeber your posting.
    I was out bc same weekend
     
    SMSkier likes this.
  30. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    1,650
    Likes Received:
    1,416
    I think I done 10 - of which only 4 were questionable. Day of the season so far was June 6. Freshies on FV. Some other top 10 days in there as well. Only Friday 9 was a true dud day as it had crappy cloud and was the start of the current non snowmaking period. QBLW were great days just way too much sharing ..... SDS is now getting serious again and laps on Quad on Mon or Tue have the call of the vibe ....
     
    Ted Harper likes this.
  31. Telemark Phat

    Telemark Phat Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2008
    Messages:
    14,598
    Likes Received:
    6,938
    I'll tell you in October.
     
    rocketboy likes this.
  32. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    42,340
    Likes Received:
    10,130
    It's that time of year again when I dust off these old chestnuts.
     
    Chaeron, CarveMan, POW_hungry and 3 others like this.
  33. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    1,650
    Likes Received:
    1,416
    I've been skiing in June since 1969. Some of the season's best days for beginners are available right now. And likewise for those who ski to be fit ... ahead of what might be.
     
  34. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    64,790
    Likes Received:
    17,716
    A little bit of information can be dangerous. It's not as simple as El Nino = no snow and La Nina = lots of snow. There is a period almost every year in autumn/early winter where we have highs sitting over us and there are lots of calm days and frosts/fogs and to be honest, not much happening. Last year this happened really early, this year it seems to be happening at around 'normal' time.
     
  35. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    11,216
    Likes Received:
    7,887
    SDS is alive kicking and in the house.
     
  36. chicski

    chicski Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2017
    Messages:
    1,638
    Likes Received:
    2,020
    How exciting for you all. Has she had the most awesome time?
     
    nfip likes this.
  37. chicski

    chicski Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2017
    Messages:
    1,638
    Likes Received:
    2,020
    Oh hang on...off topic?
     
  38. tele-whippet

    tele-whippet beard stroker
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2006
    Messages:
    11,014
    Likes Received:
    12,013
    42 is the answer.
     
    LaNeige and Vertikar like this.
  39. Zimboo

    Zimboo Addicted Member

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2014
    Messages:
    6,741
    Likes Received:
    2,721
    Good onya nfip and family........big thing having kids OS. Hopefully another young person that can break down barriers!!!!
     
    Kletterer and nfip like this.
  40. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    11,216
    Likes Received:
    7,887
    Yes shes had a great time. Will be straight down the road and into the water when we get her home.
    I also observe the SST anomalies here are in the positive . :)
     
    Zimboo likes this.
  41. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    4,661
    Likes Received:
    1,796
    Don't you just love it how this thread pops up around this time every year without fail

    Well said @Vermillion

    IMO generally speaking though, I think it will be an ordinary to below average season (i.e. what we've just seen - early snowfall to get everyone amped, now long dry spell with nothing on the horizon has happened many a time in those average to below average seasons). Early snowfalls more often than not end in shit seasons IMO.

    At this point, I would be looking at an NZ early season trip and then hope that there's a shift in the jetstream/LWT that Oz gets some loving towards the end of July & into August but best to keep expectations low
     
    Vermillion likes this.
  42. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2015
    Messages:
    321
    Likes Received:
    142
    Yes, 2017 shall be a lean season. And the leanness shall become more pronounced with each and every subsequent season thankyou to global warming, or should I say thankyou to humans burning fossil fuels.
     
    rocketboy and FourSquare04 like this.
  43. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    42,340
    Likes Received:
    10,130
    BTW chances of El Nino forming this year have dropped to virtually zero.
     
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    92,803
    Likes Received:
    29,372
    No global warming discussion in the Weather forum please.
    We know what happens.
    Bear pit is where you can discuss this to your hearts content.
     
    ladycamper, Marty_McSly, cin and 7 others like this.
  45. bondibob

    bondibob Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2015
    Messages:
    138
    Likes Received:
    183
    Not yet, June has no bearing on the overall season. July is the month when the magic happens, and the key is Praying for us avoiding rain events.

    We have the same chats every year lol, it will turn out ok, or average or amazing. I know i enjoy my pass every year tho. But it allows me to go on short notice.

    I don't and won't really worry until July 7th. If after that we are struggling then we can start to panic.

    But as regulars will know- Aus snow is all about timing...I did 7 trips last year and hit the 2 huge rain events, oops! And no fresh snow on any of my trips! Bad season? Certainly not if you was lucky enough to go when they had the 70cms in 2 days or the few epic days in July.

    A big dump is coming, end of June or first week of July...she'll be alright! Watch and wait and get ready to throw the board on the roof! I know I won't miss out again this year!
     
    cin, Kappy, bradster and 6 others like this.
  46. bondibob

    bondibob Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2015
    Messages:
    138
    Likes Received:
    183
    FYI it is very important and Always wise to take out an insurance policy, I took out two this year. hakuba in feb and America in December.
     
  47. Mister Tee on snow shoes

    Mister Tee on snow shoes Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2015
    Messages:
    1,445
    Likes Received:
    1,182
    I am ready to jump if the snow comes at the start of July and I can get two nights away on a Sunday and Monday at Mt. Stirling or MSG.
     
  48. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    3,702
    Likes Received:
    2,842
    Post that Here.
     
  49. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    4,661
    Likes Received:
    1,796
    @bondibob you do make some valid points there.

    If you look back at historical data from over the years, you can see that there are some patterns, for example we often will get a snowfall in the last week in June / 1st week in July.

    I never used to go down until mid August but now it seems like the best time to go is late July / early August especially for the best snow quality.
     
  50. Old School Mike

    Old School Mike Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2017
    Messages:
    38
    Likes Received:
    140
    It's not that unusual to get skiable snow in June or earlier. In 2009 I skied Club Lake and Carruthers in April and Kosciuszko in May. In mid May 1981 I skied to Jagungal in good snow from Munyang Pumping Station. Last year I skied Mt Kosciuszko, Ramsheads and Thredbo on 25 June. I've also skied in June in quite a few other years.
     
    #50 Old School Mike, Jun 16, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 16, 2017
    FourSquare04 likes this.