Is 2017 Shaping Up To Be A Lean Season?

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Old School Mike, Jun 15, 2017.

  1. Xwing

    Xwing Well-Known Member

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    Fear not lads. The prevailing winds will, um, prevail bringing us the snow we love. My bet is to see a smashing event by the end of next week and a snow depth approaching 75cm officially. Of course in stashes one would expect to find more.
     
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  2. chicski

    chicski Dedicated Member
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    I remember having to remove skis to walk down to interceptor in mid August.
     
  3. jonathanc

    jonathanc Dedicated Member

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    I had a knee reco in December 05 and missed the whole 2006 season. Perfect timing!
     
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  4. Adamski

    Adamski Active Member

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    Sacrifice this man to the snow Gods!
     
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  5. chicski

    chicski Dedicated Member
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    2012 for me. Not good timing!
     
  6. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 Dedicated Member

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    Except, of course, that those prevailing winds are not the prevailing winds of yore.
     
  7. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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    Driest June on record in Victoria, and by some margin.
    [​IMG]
     
  8. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend
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    Jeebuz
     
  9. telecrag

    telecrag Part of the Furniture
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    Fire up the desal!
     
  10. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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    Rest of Southern Australia isn't that flash either
    [​IMG]

    Compared to forecast products issued on May 25th
    [​IMG]
    BoM model didn't verify well in the top end but did OK through most of SE Australia.

    Tassie isn't too happy either, that's a model resolution issue.
     
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  11. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    True , same for southeast NSW west of the hills. At least there was some existing moisture in the ground so not as bad as the graphic might lead you to believe , a couple more months of low/nil rainfall...............well that's a different matter altogether.
     
  12. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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    Yep. Thankfully we had some low probability weather events in late April/May where moisture from late season TCs made its way to the South East.
     
  13. Budgiesmuggler

    Budgiesmuggler Addicted Member
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    Just thought I'd reserect this - season tracking OK. June is way too early to make predictions about the season.
     
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  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    timings impeccable. Season's looking lean... on grass.
     
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  15. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

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    hehehehhe
     
  16. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    Close this thread
     
  17. Chaeron

    Chaeron Dedicated Member
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  18. Mister Tee on snow shoes

    Mister Tee on snow shoes Dedicated Member

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    Spring namely mid October should be wicked at Charlotte's Pass this year!
     
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  19. Outlooker

    Outlooker Active Member

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    May be 2m by Thursday. Should keep us covered for spring.
     
  20. SMSkier

    SMSkier Dedicated Member

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    Borrowed from the South Perisher Org Charts. Will be interesting to see where this sits once the current snowfall is loaded into their system!!

     
  21. Mister Tee on snow shoes

    Mister Tee on snow shoes Dedicated Member

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    Just when I was joking about Mt. Baw Baw and Lake Mountain being too low in elevation to be viable snow resorts and that suburban Mt. Waverley in SE Melb. being higher up and wetter and better suited for snow sports ;-P
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Waverley,_Victoria.........................
    Nature has shown me to be wrong.
     
  22. IAB

    IAB Addicted Member
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    No.
     
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  23. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    No
     
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  24. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    It's cooked - just waiting for the icing, and someone to light the candles.
     
    #174 rocketboy, Aug 10, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 10, 2017
  25. Old School Mike

    Old School Mike Active Member

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    Thanks
     
  26. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear Active Member

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    Lean = Baw Baw :(
     
  27. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    I guess its a matter of perspective and more importantly location when judging if 2017 is a lean season or not. From my perspective at the locations I have seen and slid down.............well if this is a lean season and if I was guaranteed this season would be every season then in a heartbeat I would take it. There have been a few absolutely magic days with snow quality the equal of anything I have seen in Australia , there have also been a lot of decent days with very few bad days so far. I can think of only 1 day - the 145mm day - that I said na, not today. So far the really good days outweigh the really bad by a good margin in my opinion which is something that cannot always be said.
     
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  28. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs Dedicated Member
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    Agree. The last 2-3 weeks, with the exception of one rainy day, have been the best consistent skiing I have had in oz. We have had 6 or 7 excellent fresh snow days, as well as some magnificent bluebird days. The quality of the snow, even on the warm days has been excellent. The level of cover at the moment is fantastic, way better than you would think looking at the spencers 185cm reading. Unfortunately it was a slow start in June / July. However, it has been a cracker of an august, which more than makes up for it.
     
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  29. Snowcone

    Snowcone Active Member

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    My season is over and my wife is sick of me lamenting that next year can not be as good - given this has been the best skiing I've had in Oz since 2009 (when the kids were old enough to let us re-enter the fray).
     
  30. blackice

    blackice Active Member

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    Clearly, in (almost) hindsight, the answer is no. For those predictors that said yes when this question was originally posed, now is the time to review the reason for those predictions and add any new 'learnings' to your models, whatever they are. Better luck next time.
     
  31. Old School Mike

    Old School Mike Active Member

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    Fair enough. I guess I was a little impatient when I created this thread. Clearly the seasons are starting up to a month later.
     
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  32. Old School Mike

    Old School Mike Active Member

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    Sorry to hear that your season is over. I agree it has turned out to be quite a good season after a late start
     
  33. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    It's all noise. The 2-3 dumps that make a season come when they do and don't. Would have been a sad second half of August if the rain hadn't been followed by a serious dump. Would have made the pre rain dump a memory of what might have been. Last year was mostly dog with the dumps finally coming at the end - a crazy powder afternoon on the last day - with more to come for a couple of weeks.

    2015 was dry and spare with a heatwave that literally microwaved it into slop in mid August. 2014 was bare on opening - then sensational at the end of June before giving way to a long slow death from there. Turning circle at CP was the smallest cut in years in 2014. Whereas I suspect this will be the biggest since 2012.

    IMO we got lucky this year. So hopefully early sober pessimism pays off again with more snowflakes out of the hat...
     
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  34. blackice

    blackice Active Member

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    Possibly. I was just looking at the Spencer's creek readings for the last 30 years or so last night. Every decade has had some big, late, early, high and low seasons.

    Personally I think the second or third week in August is about when it can be somewhat confidently called.
     
  35. Legs Akimbo

    Legs Akimbo Part of the Furniture
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    And ending a week or two earlier.
     
  36. Taipan

    Taipan Part of the Furniture
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    Hows that looking for you at the moment?

    Weather News
    Snowiest week of the year cranking up
    Brett Dutschke, Monday September 4, 2017 - 14:12 EST

    The snowiest week of the year has begun with 70-110cm of fresh snow due to fall across the main resorts, taking the natural snow depth to not only a season high but the highest in several years.

    It is becoming very cold and windy with frequent heavy snowfalls and blizzards due to three strong cold fronts. Snow should fall as low as about 600 metres on the New South Wales Alps, as low as about 300 metres on the Victorian Alps. Wind and snow showers will ease during Wednesday but increase again during Thursday/Friday with snow falling as low as about 600 metres.

    By the weekend, under clearing skies, the natural snow cover should be more than 200cm deep at Hotham and Falls Creek and possibly more than 250cm deep at Thredbo/Perisher. This would make it the deepest in more than 15 years.

    - Weatherzone

    © Weatherzone 2017
     
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  37. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 Dedicated Member

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    Hate to say it, but it's there for everyone to see - if Baw Baw "leans" any more, it could very well fall right over.
     
  38. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    Climate change?
     
  39. Seafm

    Seafm Dedicated Member
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    Thread title needs editing me thinks.
     
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  40. Undies

    Undies Part of the Furniture
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    Yeah, it's been a tough year at lower elevations, but a cracker for those a little higher.

    I hope next year is just as lean for Perisher!
     
  41. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Overall current Weather Observation:

    I observe that this season is easily now the best since 2000 - IMO

    2000 we had an epic and perfect start due to the iconic May 2000 mega dump a week before the season began & there were consistent, solid dumps the whole way through the season, even 10-15cm on closing weekend at Perisher in October!

    However, 2017 has had the 3 x mega dumps but more towards the latter half of the season with the slow start.

    IMO - 2000 (and even 2012 for the majors) were more consistent seasons throughout the entire duration.

    2017 is definitely going to be one of the record books and has been pretty special.

    IMO I doubt we will see another big one like 2017 for some time.
     
  42. Legs Akimbo

    Legs Akimbo Part of the Furniture
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    No, or minimal, rain will do it.
     
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  43. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

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    Late 2003 and 2004 were pretty special IMO. August 2008 was also great until it faded quickly from late-August.
     
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  44. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Agreed! I missed 2003 due to being overseas but had some amazing days in 2004!

    Mostly missed 2008 too, sadly :(
     
  45. Nidecker

    Nidecker Dedicated Member
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  46. teckel

    teckel Old And Crusty
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    For the record, BOM long term forecast for this winter:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  47. jonathanc

    jonathanc Dedicated Member

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  48. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    I never pay attention to these forecasts, these percentage things really annoy me, it's like the % for rainfall on the daily weather forecasts.

    For example it's forecast to be fine & sunny yet there's still a 20% chance of rain :rolleyes:

    And further when you see the BOM snow forecasts and they say 80% chance of snow or 90% chance of snow yet you can see for a fact it's nuking on the cams!! Why not just say 100% chance for god's sake!!
     
  49. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room
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    The % forecast.... you have to try to understand what it means.
    40% chance of snow: Does it mean that it's likely that there will be an 80-100% chance that it will snow 40% of the day, or does it mean that there's a 40% chance it will snow at SOME TIME, even if it only snows for 10 min.
    The OUTCOME can be very different.

    So for example, a 90% chance of snow does not mean it will snow most of the day, it means that there is a 90% chance of getting some snow, either 10 min, all day or something inbetween, so it doesn't correlate to how much snow you will get on the ground.


    If you can see it nuking on the snowcams, it's not longer a forecast. ;)
     
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  50. teckel

    teckel Old And Crusty
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    Exactly!
    Why I ignore BOM long range forecasts.
     
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