Resource Japan 2020 / 2021 season Flight info, sales & travel insurance after COVID

Sandy

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I know. But a couple of days ago we were being told it was unlikely that we would be able to travel outside Australia this year.

Policy by polie statement. Not even by press release.
From yesterday:
Here's my take on it....

You have to get your head around the fact that elimination is impossible. Eventually, there will be more treatments(like dexamethasone & remdesivir) and possibly a vaccine. But he virus is endemic, just like flu is endemic, and we have to get used to that.If the world is to return to something like normal, then we have to accept that.
There's too many people who have the virus, in too many places, for it to be eliminated.
If the world doesn't return to something like normal, more people will die because the world economy will be devastated. (Think Brazil, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh

Once you accept that SARS-CoV-2 virus is endemic, but the world needs to return to something like normal, we need to adjust the way people come into Australia. When I was a kid, traveling OS (England for 2 years when I was 11, then back via Hong Kong & Japan), we had to have a vaccination card, with all the stuff... polio, smallpox, diptheria, Yellow Fever, typhus, typhoid, etc....
The fact that Victoria picked up 15 people on an arriving flight with COVID is GOOD, not bad, because it shows that Australia has a system that works.

My read: Govt will realise that you can't go until January without international travel. Business must be conducted, but flights must be full enough to allow flights to happen. Tourists must be moving well before then.
If the travel industry doesn't move soon, it will be so damaged that it will suffer a 10 year devastation.

Here's the headline:
Australian borders likely to stay closed until next year, Tourism Minister says
Here's what he actually said:
"I do sadly think that in terms of open tourist-related travel in or out of Australia, that remains quite some distance off"
"Just because of the practicalities of the volumes that are involved and the need for us to first and foremost keep putting health first."
Asked whether that meant the border would not open until next year, he said, "I think that is more likely the case".

Senator Birmingham has suggested some business travel may also be opened up.
"I think those who might not only be international students, but be here for longer-term work purposes or longer-term business and investment purposes, logically you can extend those sort of same safeguards to them and their state," he said.
"I hope that we can look eventually at some of those countries who have similar successes in suppressing the spread of COVID to Australia and New Zealand, and in working through that with those countries, find safe pathways to deal with essential business travel that helps to contribute to jobs across our economies."

Notice how he hadn't formulated a "policy" regarding the timing, he only responded to a question. He's the Tourism Minister, not the Health Minister.
After the dip in the ASX in tourism related shares today, he may issue a "clarification" today or tomorrow, IMO.
 
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Kimski

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I’m hoping I might be able to get a Japan trip in. I usually fly with Cathay or Singapore from Adelaide but I would think for this trip a direct flight from Australia would be a safer bet.

As Sandy says, elimination is impossible without a vaccine. Australia can’t stay completely cut off forever. It’s like South Australia now dropping 14 days self isolation for everywhere apart from NSW and Vic. There will come a time when the benefits to opening up to ‘safe’ countries will outweigh the risk. Obviously quarantine free flights from destinations such as the US and India are a long way off.
 
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LMB

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Maybe.
However (playing devils advocate for a while here because I much prefer your proposition) if we get tourism going and bring a massive tsunami wave of Covid19 into Australia after we effectively didn’t have a first wave (just a lapping at the shores) will that not devastate the economy even more?
 
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Sbooker

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Maybe.
However (playing devils advocate for a while here because I much prefer your proposition) if we get tourism going and bring a massive tsunami wave of Covid19 into Australia after we effectively didn’t have a first wave (just a lapping at the shores) will that not devastate the economy even more?

Unfortunately I think we're going to have the learn to live with the virus to a certain degree. I agree with Sandy. We're screwed if we don't get back to some semblance of economic normal pretty soon.
 
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Sandy

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Maybe.
However (playing devils advocate for a while here because I much prefer your proposition) if we get tourism going and bring a massive tsunami wave of Covid19 into Australia after we effectively didn’t have a first wave (just a lapping at the shores) will that not devastate the economy even more?
We now have testing. In the first wave, there was none.
Have a look at how many travelers have been picked up with COVID:
_Source of infection 2020-06-22.jpg


Of 7461 cases, 4606 came from overseas.... and we know that(61.7%).
If all those people got in without detection and the R_eff from those people was 1.5, Australia would probably have maybe 74,610, not 7461.
What's needed is a PCR test before flights and on arrival.
 
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LMB

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We now have testing. In the first wave, there was none.
Have a look at how many travelers have been picked up with COVID:
_Source of infection 2020-06-22.jpg


Of 7461 cases, 4606 came from overseas.... and we know that(61.7%).
If all those people got in without detection and the R_eff from those people was 1.5, Australia would probably have maybe 74,610, not 7461.
What's needed is a PCR test before flights and on arrival.
The PCR tests before and after flights sounds like a great option for me. Right now you can’t get a test if you’re asymptomatic unless you fall into one of the specified groups though - so there would have to be availability of tests and testing facilities.
For me, not wanting to risk my own travel, I’d also go super hard on the non exposure in the 2 weeks leading up to travel - mask use when out, no see ya Mum cuddles before leaving, no massive dance party in the club with the homies before departure. But maybe that can be stipulated to first round travellers - ie: don’t fook this up because the travelling world needs you to prove it can be done without disastrous consequences.

I’d also like to note here that the rate of positives we are seeing in the current crop of “returned travellers” is a bit disproportionate as many of them are fleeing hotspots and would DEFINITELY have given teary good bye for potentially forever hugs and kisses to extended family and friends in those hot spots.
 

Scoober

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Pretty annoying I can get cheap flight to Tokyo from Sydney direct @$400 (JAL, QANTAS), but to be cheap on return it wants me to go through Melbourne otherwise @$700+. For a mid JAN departure, end of JAN return. ANA is good at low $900's.
 
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Froff Life

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Ecstatic

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Airlines can't just ramp up instantly if the borders were to open tomorrow. QANTAS have 100 planes parked in the Mojave desert and have laid off 20% of their staff. They have put a plan in place with the assumption that international travel doesn't start up again until July 2021. Given they are a multi-billion dollar airline, I'd say they've considered this more thoroughly than any of us. To me this is probably the biggest indication a 20/21 season won't be available to Australians.
 

Sandy

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"Mr Joyce said while domestic travel was starting to recover, international services may only be back to 50 per cent of pre-virus levels by mid-2021."

https://www.news.com.au/travel/trav...t/news-story/cb9daedb9eea2aca106266eb956c66e8

I'm a glass half-full kind of person and trying to keep an optimistic view for the 2021 season :)
I've always thought that international travel would not be back to normal for a while, but 50% of pre-virus levels by mid-2021 would be a good outcome.
MOST of that initially, would be in a bubble (e.g. Aust, NZ, Japan, Taiwan, S.Korea), and IMO, long before mid 2021.
 

LMB

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I've always thought that international travel would not be back to normal for a while, but 50% of pre-virus levels by mid-2021 would be a good outcome.
MOST of that initially, would be in a bubble (e.g. Aust, NZ, Japan, Taiwan, S.Korea), and IMO, long before mid 2021.
This is the hope we all hold onto.
 

blowfin

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How is this any different to most other international airlines? As soon as Aus allows international travel to open back up Qantas will put more flights on and employ more staff to fill the market need.
Yeah I don't really understand the outraged flavour in the news over this today. I'm surprised they didn't do it sooner. I'm not sure what some of the commentators expected, Qantas to keep on employees so they could get paid for doing nothing? Jobkeeper is one thing, but the airlines are going to have reduced revenue long after it's gone.
 

Kimski

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"Mr Joyce said while domestic travel was starting to recover, international services may only be back to 50 per cent of pre-virus levels by mid-2021."

https://www.news.com.au/travel/trav...t/news-story/cb9daedb9eea2aca106266eb956c66e8

I'm a glass half-full kind of person and trying to keep an optimistic view for the 2021 season :)

Most of us aren’t expecting to be able to go to the US or Europe to ski this season or visit Bali any time soon. However I’ve no doubt there are people working madly behind the scenes to see what countries in a similar stage to us we can open or borders to for quarantine free travel. Will be interesting to see if China makes the list. They seem to be mostly on top of things, recent Beijing outbreak excepted, but can they be trusted?
 
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Kimski

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Yeah I don't really understand the outraged flavour in the news over this today. I'm surprised they didn't do it sooner. I'm not sure what some of the commentators expected, Qantas to keep on employees so they could get paid for doing nothing? Jobkeeper is one thing, but the airlines are going to have reduced revenue long after it's gone.

Even if the tourist traffic gets back to pre-covid levels there is no doubt businesses will be looking to do much less travel for meetings that can be done through technology.
 
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TJ

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We have a bunch of regulars who have confirmed that if they can get here they will so for us it is a case of sit and wait. At least that will make sure I don't drink the cellar dry. This new 30 minute test would be a good one to set up at the airports to help get things moving. You just know that it will be a shitfight at the airports though when they do start up again. Anyway shoganai is the word they use here (a lot atm) It means "it can't be helped" and is very apt during these times.
 
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skinik

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Inside from the academic world, on the issue of international students (the bulk from China): Federal government wants to encourage international students back into Australia for semester 2, 2020, (Aug/Sept) with the bulk of these back by Semester 1 2021(Feb/March) - as part of the essential research funding for universities from international student fees. Education as a sector, funding research, 'open for business'. Essentially, I reckon if they want international students back as early as Aug/Sept this year, business travel will be back at the same time, with tourism to follow early in the new year, albeit with bubble restrictions - Japan, NZ, and trade relations dimensions... And yes, the cost of the 14 day quarantine period (in supervised accommodation) will be passed either to the individual or the institution enrolling the individual...Read that as you may.
 

telenomore

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International travel ex Japan took its first step today with a flight to Vietnam for workers. Lots of Japanese companies in Vietnam out of action due to staff not allowed in. Requirements are PCR test on arrival in Vietnam and.. 14 day quarantine. Its not much. but its a start.
 

skichanger

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On the radio this morning the comment was made that international travel will not return till what it was before till there is a vaccine. To me that means that we will not be traveling to places like USA, Brazil, GB, and Europe where Covid-19 has been rampant. But it does not mean we will not be able to travel to safer places like Japan.
 

Sandy

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On the radio this morning the comment was made that international travel will not return till what it was before till there is a vaccine. To me that means that we will not be traveling to places like USA, Brazil, GB, and Europe where Covid-19 has been rampant. But it does not mean we will not be able to travel to safer places like Japan.
According to Qantas, they expect to return to 50% of 2019 international flights by July 2021. That is quite a reasonable figure, and it means that a high/medium number of flights SHOULD happen in travel bubbles long before that (e.g. Aust, NZ, Japan, S.Korea, Taiwan)
 

Kash

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Following this thread with interest. We have return flights to Tokyo from Syd via ANA in mid Jan21 for a family of 5 (bought in Jan20 before the world turned to $hit). At this stage its a 50-50 at best but maintaining optimism we can still go. Interesting that ANA are currently operating regular flights from SYD currently and all through the next 6 months (and I saw an ANA flight fly over the inner west in syd yesterday)? Planes must be very empty.

I realize my first world problem of missing a ski trip is less significant than those whose livelihood depends on getting travel to Japan back up and operating.
 

skichanger

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I realize my first world problem of missing a ski trip is less significant than those whose livelihood depends on getting travel to Japan back up and operating.
Yeah but the livelihood of many depends on solving your 1st world problem.

We are lucky in that we are not dependent on our lodges for income. But many are and I am quite concerned for a lot of people. We do need to get back to Japan for so many other reasons. Us and many others had to leave in a such a rush that we have not cleaned up after winter (there was still snow everywhere), done any maintenance required and prepared for next winter.
 

2ESki

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Flights from Melb to Tokyo late March to mid April $740, starting to get keen, but still worried after we had to cancel this years trip in April with son :( Thoughts from brains trust, don't want to have cancel two years in a row ?
 

skichanger

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Flights from Melb to Tokyo late March to mid April $740, starting to get keen, but still worried after we had to cancel this years trip in April with son :( Thoughts from brains trust, don't want to have cancel two years in a row ?
Who is that with?
Book if there are fee free changes.
 

Sandy

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Japan to build virus test centers near airports for overseas travelers
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2...irport-coronavirus-test-centers/#.XwExuhJS-Uk

Japan plans to set up new testing centers for the novel coronavirus outside three major airports in Tokyo and Osaka, as well as in central parts of the cities, as the country prepares to relax its travel restrictions, a government official said Thursday.

The facilities, intended mainly to test people entering the nation from abroad, are to be built near the airports — Haneda and Narita near the capital and Kansai in Osaka Prefecture — as soon as this summer, the official said.

The government has yet to decide whether to use them for those in Japan who may require evidence they are virus-free to travel outside the country.

Airport quarantine stations currently conduct about 1,000 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests per day, with results confirmed in around one or two days.

The planned construction of the facilities will increase the number of PCR tests that can be performed daily to over 4,000, with health authorities also hoping to reduce virus testing times to a few hours using new methods.

The envisioned testing centers in central parts of the two major cities are expected to be able to provide testing for travelers leaving for foreign countries, and the government is considering issuing certificates for those who test negative.

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Only 1,700 foreign travelers are estimated to have arrived in Japan in May, the fewest for any month on record and a 99.9 percent drop from a year earlier, according to government data.

However, the nation is currently in talks with several countries to mutually ease travel restrictions for business people providing they submit negative test results and an itinerary that details where they plan to go during their stay.

Those countries include Australia and Thailand. Japan may also begin talks with Taiwan and Brunei as early as this month, diplomatic sources said Wednesday.
 
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