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Japan 2020 / 2021 snow season planning

Discussion in 'Japan' started by Snowwww, Apr 4, 2020.

  1. Jacksong

    Jacksong Addicted

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    Quite surprising to hear there are still more tourists in summer than winter. I would guess the winter tourists stay longer and spend more?
     
  2. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Our focus is on winter, we go to Japan for Japow, so we don't really think about it. Not all places have more summer tourism than winter. But conversely there are places that were once open in winter that are now only open in summer. Some of the ski areas are a bit like the mountain areas around our cities, have great transport so perfect for weekend escapes.
     
  3. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    We will be looking into that as the urgency to return increases.

    I am hoping this travel bubble happens. We just need the dumb shit here and there to stop.

    Domestic guests might be enough but they are more likely to stay in the Japanese owned and operated places. These guys are struggling as well. I have always been reluctant to try to take business away from them. My mission has always been to bring new business to the area.
     
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  4. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Here is a win for anyone who gets to Japan next season
    https://www.timeout.com/tokyo/news/...XO_NJ1G-fhSfaoezVprWePFoI1FfQoFXJvfUX8YyubAcw

    OK I read the article. Might be of limited benefit if going to Nagano and beyond Becaue
    "JR East shinkansen lines during that time, except the Hokuriku Shinkansen’s Kagayaki and Hakutaka trains (for destinations like Toyama and Kanazawa), which will be half price only until September 30 this year. "

    Frustrating!
     
  5. mannyk

    mannyk One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hi, I read it this morning , Im pretty sure its from August 20 to end of March 21. well thats what the post said from Time out..unless you are talking about something else.. all a bit imaterial at this stage..
     
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  6. mannyk

    mannyk One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think it would be real boost to the economy if the transport for us imports would be less expensive..Its about $300 + one way for a couple just to get to the snow...Its a fantastic service I agree.
     
  7. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    It does except for the trains that go past Nagano. The discount for them only goes to September 30. We go to the next stop after Nagano so frustrating. But still good that they are doing this.
     
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  8. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It doesn't end up too much more, going to Iiyama.
    Normal:
    - Tokyo to Nagano: 8340yen
    - Tokyo to Iiyama:8780yen
    So even if it's only half price to Nagano, it should only be 440yen extra, instead of 220 extra.
     
  9. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Will you have to reserve seats? I think so.
    Will you have to change trains? If you can only reserve seats the Asama you will have to change trains. You have to reserve seats on the Kagayaki which is the express that goes to Kanazawa.
    Will you have to buy a seperate ticket to Iiyama? The seperate ticket on the Hakutaka is about 1400 yen and takes 11 minutes. The local train costs 550 yen and takes 50 minutes.

    You could always reserve and buy your seat on the ASAMA to Nagano, buy the Hakutaka to Iiyama dn then jump in the Hakutaka in the unreserved carriages and not need to change trains. Migh be a bit hectic in winter as those trains are already pretty crowded.

    Caught the Kagayaki one time and there were some middle aged Japanese guys sitting in my seat. They moved and explained they were being naughty and should be on the Hakutaka. They were very funny, like a couple of naughty school kids. The ticket inspector seemed to know them and did not check their tickets. So I assumed they did this regularly.
     
  10. mannyk

    mannyk One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    "Do note that this half price deal only applies to tickets purchased through the official JR East website between 20 days and one month prior to your departure date."
    That means you have to make sure you can be at the platform on time.. I never book until Im at the station, allowing for all the variables and to lessen the stress.
    If you book unreserved I believe you can catch any train on the day?? Not sure if thats available on the deal though..
     
  11. Lucky Pete

    Lucky Pete One of Us

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    If you have reserved tickets and miss the train just catch the next one and sit in unreserved.
     
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  12. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    You don't need a separate ticket between Nagano & Iiyama. You should be able to get the discount on the Tokyo to Nagano, and an add on (440yen).... the new ticket will cost the full 2910 yen.
    Reserved seats & non reserved will be a difference of maybe 400yen from Tokyo to Nagano/Iiyama. You don't especially need a reserved seat from Nagano & Iiyama, as it's only 11 min.

    If you book any reserved or unreserved ticket on a particular day, you can catch any Shinkansen on that day
     
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  13. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    We won't know until someone buys one.They would need to write the ticket algorithms to accommodate buying part of the ticket with a discount and the rest without. Much harder than just writing code for just getting a ticket for certain destiations.
     
  14. Saski

    Saski Early Days

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    Worst case scenario you get the local train to Iiyama. Yes it's a bit of palaver with luggage if you are carrying ski gear, but is a wonderful journey. The scenery is simply stunning as you travel along the river, stopping at several local stations. Excitement builds as you're going along and catch glimpses of the snow covered mountains ahead and the scenery between Nagano and Iiyama. Hot as an onsen though...
     
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  15. Saski

    Saski Early Days

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    And from the front carriage you can look through the window out front of the train and watch the driver doing his signalling, it's great.
     
  16. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    It is a bit different for me. I want to arrive before there is any snow, I drive the area regularly and I am an ex railways engineer.
    But I love the idea of telling guests to ride in tbe front carriage.

    wrt luggage do a night or so in Tokyo at each end of you holiday and Takybin your luggage.
     
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  17. mannyk

    mannyk One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    You reminded me of a vid I had.. enjoy
     
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  18. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Love it. Thanks
     
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  19. Jacksong

    Jacksong Addicted

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    That's a good way to go about it. Do you think you will just close up if foreign guests can't come this winter? (Or if they don't want to due to quarantine when returning home).
     
  20. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    We will be there and open if we can get to Japan. We want to be there to take care of the buildings, cars, snow blowers, pay bills erc.

    We already have some bookings. They are all direct as at the moment we don’t want the complications of 3rd parties involved. Currently hearing about lots of horror stories due to punatuve cancellation policies imposed by the OTAs.
     
  21. TJ

    TJ One of Us

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    A regular guest of ours has just told us that qantas have no flights to Japan this year including their codeshares. Had a quick look to confirm and couldn't find anything. Things are looking less likely by the day for international travel to open up.
    March anyone?
    On saying that, this year is lining up to be my best season on snow ever. Got to look at the positives :)
     
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  22. Ecstatic

    Ecstatic Hard Yards

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    What makes you say that? It's usually around this time each year I start looking at climate drivers and setting my expectations.
     
  23. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lean 19/20 season means a bumper 20/21 season! #science
     
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  24. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    .... normal amount of powder, 80% less people mid week = bumper season ;)
     
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  25. TJ

    TJ One of Us

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    I have a good year every year :) A case of knowing where to be and when and being ahead of the crowd. This season, to be able to get Cortina back to how it was 15 years ago will be insane. Tsugaike tree laps will be fresh all day on weekdays. Even 47 trees will have no one in them. Slack country will hardly have to be touched. It is already going to be good because as Sandy said numbers will be down 80% even if travel does start up. The local crew here are certainly fired up for it already.
     
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  26. telenomore

    telenomore One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Murphys law
     
  27. smackies

    smackies A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well, imagine if it was worse than last season... :eek:
     
  28. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    February and March were good in a lot of places....
    Myoko had its best February in 60 years!
     
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  29. Jacksong

    Jacksong Addicted

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    Looking at snow history charts in Iiyama over the past 40 years, it does seem like a bit of a pattern with lean snow years happening consecutively in 2's or 3's. Same with big snow years.
    For example these winters had below average snow: 1989 and 1990, 1993 and 1994, 1997 and 1998, 2007 and 2008 (and 2009).
    These winters had a lot of snow: 1984 and 1985, 1995 and 1996, 2005 and 2006, 2012 and 2013.

    Each 'year' above refers to November-April. See chart below.
     

    Attached Files:

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  30. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    We have 2 lots of cancelled Qantas flights. Of course they have not returned the money. And have left the domestic part of our tickets uncancelled. So annoyed with them, their press releases etc. March is such a long way away that it is stupid to have decided they are not flying till then or later. Their press release said conflicting things but the message was no international flights till July 2021.

    We will be looking at other airlines in the future even though less convenient. I don't like being jerked around for no apparent reason.
     
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  31. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    @Sandy did some work in this a while ago. He looked at El Nino and La Nina correlations to snow fall.

    2011/2012 winter was huge. Biggest snowfalls for 30 years. We were buried, literally.
     
  32. mannyk

    mannyk One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    International flights

    Our regular pre-COVID-19 international network is unlikely to return until at least July 2021.

    Because the situation is constantly evolving and may change rapidly, we haven't, at this stage, made a decision to cancel international flights after October 2020.

    I prefer to fly Qantas, so this doesnt sound like its totally out of the question.. fingers crossed..
     
  33. M_G

    M_G M_G_ = Make skiing great again Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm booked on Qantas for mid-Dec. Had to do it over the phone though.
     
  34. Jacksong

    Jacksong Addicted

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    2006 winter received quite a bit more than 2012. Hard to believe! Looking forward to see what the weather will do this winter. I just read of a 50-55% chance of La Niña from NOAA -
     
  35. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah just got an update in my flight back on 6 th October. They have cancelled my flight going over but not coming back. And knowing them it will be a shit fight not to lose my money.
     
  36. LMB

    LMB Old but definitely not Crusty! Ski Pass: Gold

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    That’s is ridiculous!
    I suppose they may think you’d go over on a different airline or a later date and still hold the return flight for that date but the reality is if you book with a different airline you’ll want to book it return to get the best deal. And if you go over later you might need to stay through Winter rather than pop back to Aus.
     
  37. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    6th October. They have cancelled everything up to the beginning of October. So we would not even be out of quarantine if we could fly over with Qantas before we flew back.

    So angry with them. Feeling so jerked around by them. I really hate it when the goal posts keep being moved. It shows a complete lack of respect. Would not feel the same if that stupid man had not made the conflicting press release re July 2021.
     
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  38. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    La Nina doesn't seem to make very much difference, from the prediction POV.
    Very strong El Nino has an impact with reduced snowfall, but there's no correlation with weak El Nino.
     
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  39. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Will have to look it up now. And look at that graph in my computer. Iiyama is in the other side of the Madarao plateau to Chalet Myoko so it could be a bit different. We did not have Chalet Madarao then. We got 4 metres of snow in 3 days at Chalet Myoko in late January 2012. The locals were the ones telling me it was the most snow for 30 years. We were overwhelmed and camping in the lodge. Was an interesting experience.
     
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  40. TJ

    TJ One of Us

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    Singapore is out for the rest of this year. Just had a regular postpone his Christmas booking until further notice. He is booked in for CNY too but not confident on that either. Vietnam was planning to open a bubble with Japan in September but with the latest spike here, that will most likely be delayed. There has been a bunch of cancellations in the valley for the Obon holiday period next month as Tokyo people have been asked to stay home. That is probably the busiest time of the year for Hakuba.
     
  41. Hyst

    Hyst Enjoyer Ski Pass: Gold

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  42. Ramenman

    Ramenman One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The timing of COVID-19 hitting the world is the worst for many business operators in Japan. Tokyo Olympics was supposed to open this weekend, and it means, a lot of tourism business operators have invested a lot for this summer. They were investing while expecting they could get plus 40% income this summer, but they'll get minus 80% income because of COVID-19. Minus 80% income after investing a lot will cause them terrible cashflow and they can go bankrupt. So, tourism industry needs the travel campaign "now".
     
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  43. Ramenman

    Ramenman One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some business will be closed after this summer and some of them might become for sale at extraordinarily cheap prices due to COVID-19 and you can buy them;)(somebody buying the business such as lodges is surely better than keeping it closed for the tourism oriented "inaka" villages).
     
  44. Lucky Pete

    Lucky Pete One of Us

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    With rapidly escalating C19 infection rates and a record number yesterday the last thing we need is a campaign to encourage people to travel right now, a fact many Governors are well aware of and speaking out about. It will only going to add further hurt in the mid to long term and its absolutely appalling policy by the Abe government.
     
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  45. Ramenman

    Ramenman One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The matter is not the number of infected people, but the number of deaths;)
     
  46. telenomore

    telenomore One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    More infected equals more deaths, so the number of infected is very important. IIRC from last night's NHK news, Tokyo ICU numbers, doubled in the last week. Demographics aside, the 2nd wave is well and truly on in Japan in general and now we have the Govt. encouraging travel, a major vector for spreading the virus. I understand the economic imperative but, really, it's a false dawn. It is short term madness IMO and in the long run, if the infection rate continues, then a another national emergency may make those businesses that were doing fine in prefectures that had little or no infections, have to close down, so in the end, it will be self defeating.
     
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  47. Ramenman

    Ramenman One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lets face that 3325 people died of flu in ski season 2018, but ski resorts open every season. In the first wave, 500 people were in serious condition and now only 50. High risk people are more protected now. It is unlikely that COVID19 kill more people than flu in Japan this year. lt souds like a fake humanity if people open bussiness in winter while there is flu risk.
     
  48. Zimbooo

    Zimbooo One of Us

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    I think the problem / concern is, if a country with a large population and large cities does not get control of the transmission/spread of Covid then 3325 deaths can occur in just 3 days as is happening now in USA, Brazil etc.
     
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  49. Ramenman

    Ramenman One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    That is very true. I do think we need to close the business when we see the clear sign. Summer is not flu season , so if govement do the campaign, it is now, othewise, next summer. But, many business cannot wait for that long.
     
  50. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO there is no right answer or solution to the situation.

    There are people who want travel restricted to prevent the spread of Covid-19. In many cases these people have elderly relatives or other people with compromised health situation they need to consider. Some others it is just for selfish reasons.

    Others need tourist dollars now to survive.

    We have much the same situation in many places in Aus. Batemans Bay comes to mind because of the Covid-19 cases there. There would be many others that have a large portion of elderly but rely on tourism.

    There is a significant decrease in Aus businesses going broke at the moment. This is being attributed to the various subsidies currently available. But how many of these businesses are actually viable? And are the subsidies just delaying the inevitable? Or are the subsidies enough to make these businesses viable? Are the businesses struggling in Japan similar?

    I don't have answers or even suggestions. I just think these are all things we need to think about when forming opinions on these things.
     
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