You’d think any Omicron wave will be well done by then. I’d be thinking earlier. April? May?
The total number of cases over the whole 2 years of the pandemic doesn't have much relationship with when the Omicron wave will be over.With a total of 4 million cases in a country of 125 million I think that may be a little optimistic. Here's hoping anyway.
If you look at the data, just over half of those 4 million recorded cases are due to the current Omicron wave. But also in pretty much every country, the Omicron wave peaks much quicker and drops just as quickly(the gradient / rate of change of cases is much faster), and the Japanese Omicron wave looks similar.
The Omicron wave started just after NY and peaked 5 weeks later. On that basis, it looks like the Omicron wave in Japan may peak towards the end of March.
How the Japanese govt reacts to that is another issue.