Japan Weather 2012-2013 the coming snow season

damian

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Sandy said:
damian said:
Sandy - agree no winter clothes, however I reckon your temps are too high for Myoko/Hakuba. Do you have Tokyo in mind?

skichanger - it is the evenings in October which you may find cool.

Yeah, Tokyo, subtract maybe 3-5 degrees for Myoko/Hakuba.

Subtract 5-8 IMHO.
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Sandy

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skichanger said:
Sandy tell me what you want and we will try to get it for you for the Myoko area. Validates having one of the apps DH likes playing with. So I assume you would want a number of data points going in a particular direction from a start point. And do you average these across the mountain or do you just try to pick a line that has a typical profile?

How much can you do it from Google maps? These are getting quite accurate - well I assume the info they include is relatively accurate.

Modern technology makes this stuff so much easier.

Has to be a straight line for the wind, usually from the resort out in different directions.
Google maps is not bad for terrain, but Damian has a tool that generates a profile.
 
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skichanger

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Oh interesting exercise. Sort of stuff we talk about on chair lifts with the boys. You could probably write an app that did that with some accuracy - something to think about! Next time I talk to my brother I will ask him about data mining google maps for the info. Long term project as I don't see him often but it is the sort of thing he likes to play with - ex uni lecturer in computer science.

So not being personal,
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, but what sort of tool is it? I used to go gliding and we had drum barometers you could use for that if you wanted and could go straight up or down the mountain along your profile at a constant speed.Probaly not accurate enough though. Was a long time ago and the memories grow dim.
 
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skichanger

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Does google earth actually genetate them? Or do you have to do something else? At some stage give me some infortmation on the format you need the data in e.g. cartesiaan co-ordinates? csv file etc - and we will see what we can do.
 

damian

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I have the data, and the mapping s/w, and it generates the profile in a click (though my s/w has a serious crash bug, may need to re-purchase!)

yes, I read that GE will generate them.
 

Sven

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Sandy, very impressive weather profile graphics you produce ja. Do you know how much snow are they predicting in Nagano prefecture in January. tack
 

DeskRider

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Had Typhoon 17 roll over Tokyo last night with lots of wind and rain - as always though, the day after is perfect blue skies..

Looking forward a few months, the Japan Meteorological Agency have released the first long range forecasts for the winter...

temp-30.png


snow-30.png
 
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Tanuki

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what's the accuracy like from JMA? particularly with such a 'predictable' weather system
 

smackies

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Oh no! There's going to be no snow.

Lucky I've not booked flights to cancel.
 

Slaine

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Can someone pull out MS Paint and correct that so the whole island is blue? Thanks in advance.... >_>
 

Tanuki

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we prefer this type of weather
183239_10150144690924224_834525_n.jpg
 
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Slaine

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That was my first year in Japan, and given my snow experience till then was Falls Creek only.... I still thought it was amazing.
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2008/2009, I was there February 09. The next year I almost fainted at the difference!
 
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smitty484

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The other thing I remember about 08/09 is it seemed to rain a fair bit and was pretty warm. So even when it did snow, it then rained afterwards. This caused havoc with both avy conditions in BC and surface conditions in resorts.
 

Sandy

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I look at those charts year after year and they never seem to give the right forecast of how it REALLY turned out....

For example, last year they said warm and below average snow, Dec to Feb,and it was really good. They changed the forecast in Jan.....
 

DeskRider

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Sandy said:
I look at those charts year after year and they never seem to give the right forecast of how it REALLY turned out....

But what else is there to talk about at the moment??
Its a long range forecast, during a mild(hopefully?) el nino event... Looks like a 'best bet' forecast at the moment IMO.

El nino can bring warmer, wetter winters in Japan. 08/09 being worst case scenario, very severe el nino event, and with it came a bad season.
 
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smackies

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Sandy, what were December and February themselves like compared with January? I know January was off the hook, as was the beginning of Feb, but don't recall how December was or how February finished up.

(Apologies, I know there are ways to look this up, but you seem to have this information at the tip of your fingers).

Anyway, the snow is going to be green. They should put that in the long range forecast.
 

Slaine

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I kinda figure that a shit Japanese season somewhere like Hakuba is still better than a standard Falls Creek season. So predictions like that aren't going to make me change my plans. And if it says terrible now, hopefully it will only get better!
 

PMG

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December was huge from around 16th. Feb had some good falls too.
Referring to Nozawa
 

skichanger

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Myoko had some good falls in Feb. A blizzard the day my youngest left - mid feb. A few hot days early in March and then another reasonable fall 2 days before we left in mid-March. We were expecting more the day we left as it had snowed every other day we travelled but it didn't happen.
 

Sandy

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Nice today in Tokyo!
22 degrees right now, lower humidity (47% !!!!!), and a light northerly breeze!!

Heading to the ski shop area today.......:d
 

Sandy

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It got down to 15.6 in Tokyo overnight, probably the first time since around late May. It was also the first time I put on something over my shirt heading to work!

Ordinarily, about mid September, there's a quantum drop from 31-34 degrees, down to 26-29 degrees, but this summer it hung on a bit longer, but now it's pretty much 22-24 degrees every day now.
So in my estimation, mid summer carried on longer, but we've missed out completely on "late summer", and headed straight into early autumn.
 

skichanger

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In Myoko - yesterday no jumper, today I need a jumper. Definitely a lot cooler today. Will have to go and buy a weather station to give me some idea of temp etc.
 

jontsy

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Sandy, is it just me or does there seem to be season inertia in Japan? A change in season seems to come late than elsewhere. For example, in Sydney, the weather started getting warmer around late August, where in Japan it didn't start getting cooler until mid-September.
 

Sandy

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jontsy said:
Sandy, is it just me or does there seem to be season inertia in Japan? A change in season seems to come late than elsewhere. For example, in Sydney, the weather started getting warmer around late August, where in Japan it didn't start getting cooler until mid-September.

The weather in Japan is very stable from a seasonal point of view. I suppose you could call that inertia!!
wink.gif

You can fix the day of the changes within a week either way. So the change usually happens right in the middle of September +- a week.

Some of these changes depend on a warm current off Japan's eastern coast. There is also the rainy season in late June to mid July, characterised by the movement of a stationary boundary from south to north. (a stationary boundary is a stationary front, separating warmer air from cooler air)
2009-06-12Synoptic.png

You can see it south of Japan on this map in June. It starts out around the Philippines around May, and moves slowly north. Once it crosses (for example Tokyo), the weather jumps up to full summer within a week of the rain clearing north, where it's dissipated by northerly latitude systems. It then doesn't cool down (at all) until the latter half of September. At that time there is another a stationary boundary that appears for just a week or two, then the cooler air pushes south and we get that quantum drop in temperatures.

In winter, the change from what I call late autumn to early winter happens (in Tokyo) around the middle of December, when the first persistent northerlies kick in. Again, it's usually +- a week. Then mid winter kicks in just after New Year.
 
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vito43

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Hi everyone. Does anyone else find the JMA long range forecasts a bit vague? I mean does 40% chance below normal snowfall mean a 60% chance of above normal?
Are these forecasts generally accurate?

With the exception of 08/09 is there any evidence of el nino adversely affecting snowfall and temps at Japanese resorts? Is it looking like this el nino phase will last and if so how strong, how long and frankly how the heck do you tell?!!
 

Sandy

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vito43 said:
Hi everyone. Does anyone else find the JMA long range forecasts a bit vague? I mean does 40% chance below normal snowfall mean a 60% chance of above normal?
Are these forecasts generally accurate?

With the exception of 08/09 is there any evidence of el nino adversely affecting snowfall and temps at Japanese resorts? Is it looking like this el nino phase will last and if so how strong, how long and frankly how the heck do you tell?!!

Yes. This has always been my complaint.

If it's 40:40:20, it means 40% chance of below, 20% chance of above. But it can also mean 60% chance of average or above average. (or 80% chance of average or below average)

I find that it's not very accurate, and it changes as the season gets closer
 
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Sandy

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Much cooler overnight!!

The top of Mt Fuji has snow!!
cam.jpg


Overnight minimums:
Tokyo: 12.5
Yokohama: 12.3
Sapporo: 5.2
Kutchan: 2.4
Hakuba: 7.9
Nozawa Onsen: 8.0
 
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DeskRider

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IMO, MeteoStar showing that Niseko will get some good falls between the 29th Oct to 3rd.
Also looks like Niigata/Nagano should get some snow at resort level (at least the top of the resort) on the 1st Nov.
 
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