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Japanese snow season 2016-17

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Sandy, Nov 23, 2016.

  1. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ok, it's time to start the season proper thread.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    LINKS
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    JMA historical snow data(to compare current and average snow depth for a particular day)
    http://www.data.jma.go.jp/obd/stats/etrn/

    Long range models pressure & thickness:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...pcpn&runtime=2016112218&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=228

    http://wxmaps.org/pix/NHanim.html

    Long range, various:
    Freezing levels
    TropicalTB
    WindyTy
    WeatherOnline


    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cfs&p=sfcmslp&rh=2016112412&fh=0&r=as&dpdt=

    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~hakim/tropo/tropo.html


    JMA historical data:
    http://www.data.jma.go.jp/obd/stats/etrn/
    Translation:
    https://translate.google.com.au/tra...ww.data.jma.go.jp/obd/stats/etrn/&prev=search

    Jetstream info:
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=wpac&pkg=uv200

    GFS runs for 00z, 06z, 12z, 18z. ("z" is Greenwich mean time, London)
     
    #1 Sandy, Nov 23, 2016
    Last edited: Dec 21, 2016
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  2. Nozawaman

    Nozawaman A Local

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    This morning ...

    [​IMG]
     
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  3. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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  4. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    think you will be leaving the car in the village next week
     
  5. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]

    So for today and tomorrow....

    There's a bit of jetstream cloud (which is generally disruptive), but look at the lake effect snow streaming across the Sea of Japan!!!!

    Takada (on the coast in Niigata @ 13m): 6.8 at 1am, decreasing to 4.5 degrees at 7am. 2-5mm of precip per hour.
    Yuzawa (in Niigata @ 340m): 4.1 at 1am, decreasing to 2.9 degrees at 7am. 0.5-4.5mm of precip per hour.
    Hakuba: 3 degrees, decreasing to 1.2 degrees, no precip.
    Nozawa Onsen: 3.1, decreasing to 2.0 degrees. trace precip.
    Kutchan (near Niseko): -4.4, decreasing to -7.5. 6cm snow since 1am. That's cold for November in Kutchan. Average max temperatures for this time of year around +7, min just below freezing.

    Tokyo: 13.6, decreasing to 11.6 degrees.
    Yokohama: 14.6, decreasing to 12.2 degrees.
     
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  6. ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Love that satellite photo.... the jetstream cloud you are talking about... is that the band streaking across honshu from the south-west to the north east? or is it the thick clouds south of honshu (covering some of kyushu)?
     
  7. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes, there's one jet off to the south and one up near Hokkaido.

    We have to remember this is a southern low trough scenario, so there will likely to be more snow on the south side the mountains.
     
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  8. TDS

    TDS Hard Yards

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    Here we go boys and gals.
     
  9. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still 150cm at Nozawa today?? ;)
     
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  10. TDS

    TDS Hard Yards

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    I've upped it to 170cm ;)
     
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  11. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Latest satellite:
    [​IMG]

    It's the cloud streaming to the south of Japan, that will bring the precip. You can see most of the lake effect snow is confined to northern Honshu & Hokkaido for now. (not near Niigata & Nagano)
     
  12. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Next Monday, Tuesday and then Friday, Saturday looking mighty fine. At this stage.
    Edit - bit of a downgrade this morning.
     
    #12 PMG, Nov 23, 2016
    Last edited: Nov 24, 2016
  13. ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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  14. Nozawaman

    Nozawaman A Local

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    View from my bedroom window , not much , but looks nice though.

    [​IMG]
     
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  15. TDS

    TDS Hard Yards

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    Better then nothing, mind you looks like this will be washed away this weekend.
     
  16. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ok so it's 2.3 degrees at 7am in Yokohama, and it a snow sleet mix!!!!! :D

    It's 1.6 degrees in Tokyo, and as I've seen it before, it WILL be snowing there.... first time since 1962 in November!!!! LOL
     
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  17. ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    and its only November .... :out:
     
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  18. ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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  19. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    In Yokohama, the sleet has stopped and it's fluffy flakes of snow!!! 1.7 degrees. Photos to follow....

    In Tokyo, there's no accumulation on the ground according to JMA (ground may be too warm, but I reckon it's been snowing there for 4 hours. 1.0 degrees.


    No settled snow in Yuzawa yet though.
     
  20. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's absolutely bucketing down now in Yokohama!!!! :D
     
  21. Chondro

    Chondro One of Us

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    Pics @Sandy Pics! You're making me froth!
     
  22. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]

    My backyard in Yokohama!!!!! :D
    A few flakes are starting to settle in the bushes!
     
  23. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The breeze has picked up a bit and it's colder, the flakes are smaller, but it looks like it's easing off a bit.
     
  24. TDS

    TDS Hard Yards

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    I envy you Sandy
     
  25. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    But I can't ski in the backyard!!! ;)
     
  26. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snowing in Kuroiso:
    [​IMG]
     
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  27. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Would prefer sustained NW
     
  28. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Can we please get one post that dumps all the relevant links people are using? I have lost all mine :( Maybe Sandy can coordinate?
     
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  29. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    i like tropical tidbits for gfs patterns
     
  30. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  31. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thanks.

    Is it possible for the first post to be updated with a list?
     
  32. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, I can consolidate when we get more responses.
     
  33. Brad Filmer

    Brad Filmer Hard Yards

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  34. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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  35. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The ground is too warm for any snow to settle on the Pacific side of central Japan.
     
  36. DeskRider

    DeskRider One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Some great pictures getting around on social media, this was my favorite - Daibutsu in Kamakura

    [​IMG]
     
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  37. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes,. I know!!! ;)
     
  38. ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    stay on topic :D
     
  39. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Interesting to see the snow settle there.... I'm only 15km from there, but was not settling at my place.

    However, it was snowing just as heavily as that, at my place in Yokohama.
     
  40. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    I observe heavy snow in hokkaido
     
  41. Brad Filmer

    Brad Filmer Hard Yards

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    I'm not surprised for this time of year but this triple threat is ruining all the good vibes :mad:

    [​IMG]
     
  42. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    On thing about the GFS is that they seem to have two different running models: 00z & 12z, and the 06z & 18z
    So if you look at the next 6 hours, you might see an upgrade or a down grade, but what you are seeing is the two different model runs.

    So for example the 00z Nov 25 2016, for 00z Dec 09:

    [​IMG]

    06z Nov 25 2016, for 18z Dec 09:
    [​IMG]


    00z Nov 25 2016, for 12z Dec 09:

    [​IMG]

    06z Nov 25 2016, for 06z Dec 10:

    [​IMG]

    These are SUPPOSED to be sequential, 6 hour increments.
    The 2nd & 4th have a deep low east of Hokkaido, while the 1st & 3rd don't.

    So the 1st & 3rd are one model run, while the 2nd & 4th are a DIFFERENT run. THIS is why it looks like there are 6 hourly "upgrades: and "downgrades". Each run uses as the input, the output from the previous 12 hours. So you have two runs which are different.
    When the two models converge (usually about 5 days out), you have a reasonably good forecast. You tend to find that when the two runs are VERY SIMILAR a long way out, then it's more likely to be right.
     
  43. Brad Filmer

    Brad Filmer Hard Yards

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    Good tip Sandy.
    I wondered why there was so much variance in these longer run models.
    Seemingly it would change from release to release.
    Ta
     
  44. Crispy013

    Crispy013 One of Us

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    What's the feeling on this coming week for Honshu? Looks promising on the 28th (mon) and then again around the 1st (thurs).

    Longer range there is an interesting deep low moving up from Taiwan that may help draw some nice cool air over much of Japan if it tracks far enough east of the country.
     
  45. ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Deep lows or any lows are not really Honshu's friend when it comes to snow...
    How's the high pressure over Siberia looking?
     
  46. Crispy013

    Crispy013 One of Us

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    Agreed. High pressure isn't anything special just yet - 1030-1040 typ.
     
  47. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    A much bigger high (1050) is due on 8th December according to some long term models.
     
  48. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's not just the mere presence of high pressure over Mongolia that give us snow, if there are a continuing series of low pressure troughs pushing through from Korea or southern China.
     
  49. G0Z

    G0Z First Runs

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    This feature is sea affect snow.

    Lake effect snow is produced during cooler atmospheric conditions when a cold air mass moves across long expanses of warmer lake water, warming the lower layer of air which picks up water vapor from the lake, rises up through the colder air above, freezes and is deposited on the leeward downwind shores.
     
  50. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, but a high pressure needs to be present for significant snow in Central Honshu.
    But if there are lows, then no snow. Will wait to see if the high moves east towards Japan...