Separate names with a comma.
Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Sandy, Nov 23, 2016.
Thanks for the video.
Just to make it clear, the snow in Tokyo last Thursday was not "lake/sea effect" snow. Tokyo only gets snow from low pressure troughs passing to the Pacific side of Japan. Tokyo also gets snow mid season, without any strong cold air in-feed, with a low pressure trough, if the air on the western flank is sufficiently cold.
The snow afterwards had some "lake effect" component after the low moved to the east, but it was not strong like the mid winter effect.
Not always. you just need a gradient that directs a northerly across the Sea of Japan
Also, you can get significant snow off the western flank of a low once it passes.
I found a nice wind here... albeit on the 21st of December.
That does look nice
Yo Smitty bro are you still mates with Donza? Are you going shredding with the Donza San in Japow this season?
Something decent brewing for around the 6th/7th. Been on the charts for a couple of days now.
Tasty... 800m for Central Honshu, 400-600m for North Honshu and Hokkaido down to sea level...
Yep nice & cold too - good snow quality up Hakkoda way
Grow little snow... Grow
(edit hmmm... animated in the edit screen but not when posted?????)
(edit 2 http://gifyu.com/images/2b788b5e-058e-41c3-987e-4ec1d9506d7f.gif)
GFS - total forecast snow accumulation covering the 6-8th Dec inclusive
I like this pivotal weather site.
Static image instead
Yes, but what does it actually mean?
"Total accumulated snowfall", 10:1 ratio (cm)
Valid Wednesday 2016-12-14
This is a profile of the total snow fall predicted over the standard GFS forecast period of 384 hours
based on the 28th of Nov data set at 00z hours.
The ratio of 10:1 is a mid point for volume of snow vs water and is on the wetter end of the scale.
Dry powder could be as a high as 30:1 and so is more voluminous.
"The snow to liquid equivalent is the amount of liquid precipitation that is produced after melting snow. The temperature profile of the troposphere and the surface temperature are important factors that determine this value. The "average" snow to liquid ratio is 10:1. This is saying that if 10 inches of snow fell and that snow was melted it would produce 1 inch of liquid precipitation in the rain gauge."
So if the events of the coming days eventuate as forecast by the 14th Dec there could be as much as 33cm in Nagano and 89 cm in central Hokkaido.
I just thought the gif anim was cool but that didn't work so good.
When anybody posts maps that are generally not seen before, you should explain what the map means.
Total snowfall forecast in cm, 384hrs for interval 2016-11-28 to 2016-12-14
Based on snow to water ratio of 10:1
@ Brad Filmer: you bette learn that - Sandy will come after you otherwise!
There's still plenty of autumn in the outlook.
Dec 5th: Looks like freeze level at Niseko about 1000m
Dec 5th: Looks like freeze level at Niseko about 1300m
Dec 12-14th: Looks like a big freeze, with freeze level at TOKYO down to 0m
Most of the cold outbreaks in Hokkaido are being driven by huge low pressure troughs.
Good for setting a base up for places tho and pushing some vegetation down no?
Yes, snow, followed by rain, then snow.
Normal late autumn conditions, but probably two weeks early
Snow-Forecast has freezing levels climbing rapidly from 0m to nearly 1500m from this Fri night all the way to Sun night.
But this modelling could change pretty quickly, I've seen it happen recently.
I wouldn't trust Snow-forecast with anything...
i've found snow-forecast to be pretty reliable at picking snow level/wind direction.
About 10cm in furano town in the last 24hr (174m asl), but 40cm in last 24hr at Sounkyo / Kurodake (540m asl).
Based on my obs only for Niseko, I have to concur with that.
It's okay, but why would you rely on that, when you can just look at the charts yourself.
well snowforecast breaks the forecast down into 8 hours sections and is an easy to read format and is pretty reliable. I can understand why people would use it.
The thing with forecasting snow/weather in Japan is that when you look too much at the charts you tend to see things that arent there. IMO forecasting snow in Japan is pretty easy, and it doesnt require the same amount of attention to detail as forecasting weather in VIC, for example.
I would use it, if the charts on snowforecast.com didn't come straight from GFS.
All you need is wind strength and direction. Simples.
This brand new chart from Tropical Tidbits gives you all the tools you need to predict snow for Japan. Wind direction and 850mb temperature. Actually you might need to add in a MSLP chart for wind strength, but this is basically it. Looking at rainfall and snowfall figures is useless when considering the lake effect. It will produce moisture, as long as the winds align.
Yes wind direction and strength, which is what snow-forecast is good at it. Then it adds nice little graphics and snow line.
I'm all for reviewing charts per above, but snow-forecast is a pretty quick and effective way to get a snapshot of what the weather is doing.
Some positive signs from the 11th Dec. Northly wind, check. Strengthening high over Siberia, check. Lowering temperatures, check. Hopefully this kick starts the season to come.
Looking very nice for 800m in Central Honshu, 500m for Northern Honshu, Sea Level for Hokkaido.
Snow and rain forecasts for Central Honshu are not that far from being guesses for more than a couple of days out. The best indicator of snow in Central Honshu is temperature and wind direction and strength. Rain and snow forecasts are more accurate for Hokkaido.
But I want it to snow in middle honshu now
It is. I am concerned my little snowblower will be buried by the snow sliding of my roof atm. It is happening far more often that I want. And my car is turning into a white lump.
Where is this?
Chalet Myoko. Shin Akakura, Taguchi (Myoko Kogen) , Niigata, For an exact location put Chalet Myoko into google maps.
cool didn't expect this much snow in honshu from this system
Yeah I am a little concerned atm. Tomorrow's plans could go astray as I may need to move snow.
Great start to this season.
and its only November........ just
Soon it will only be January December.
Those cabbages need covering.
Central Honshu traditionally doesn't get going for a couple more weeks at least....
dahhlinks, I no complaaaaaain
Well, it's not "going" yet!!!!
Usually, when the early winter "step" takes place, there's no sign of rain on the slopes for 3-4 weekday at least. But there's warmer weather on the current outlook. IMO, that snow on the ground at Myoko will melt again before the 11th-14th Dec, when it looks like the real early winter might kick in.
It is reported that it will be very windy and snowy in Northern Japan this Thursday and Friday. I hope Niigata, Nagano, Southern Tohoku(Fukushima) are included in the "Northern Japan" in this case. Central Honshu might be a bit too warm to snow tomorrow and the day after tomorrow. It will snow in Northern Tohoku and Hokkaido(it can be blizzard there)
20-30 cm in Furano town through Friday. Starting to look like mid winter. Above average snowfall so far.
Still like the look of the 11th December.