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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Sandy, Nov 23, 2016.
Puking in Yuzawa town also... started heavy about 5pm I'd say. Fingers crossed it keeps up
Latest GFS output
Date Day FL and Snow conditions
15th Feb 900-1100m Light snow/rain
16th Feb 1600-1800m No snow
17th Feb 1700m, getting colder Heavy snow/rain later
18th Feb 400m Light snow
19th Feb 400m Light isolated snow
20th Feb 1000m Moderate to heavy snow/rain
21st Feb 1400m Light-Moderate snow/rain
22nd Feb 2100m Heavy rain.
23rd Feb 1700m, cooling throughout day to 500m Heavy rain, heavy snow later.
@harks98 I am preparing a long range snow forecast for the weekend if you can hold on that long. Extended GFS might be of use...
First post in awhile but keeping an eye on extended forecasts as well and hoping to get a window off work later next week, with nothing booked yet I'm weighing up where to go.
Snow-forecast 9-day (how reliable ??) but it's not looking ideal for Nagano, Niigata, Gunma regions…
Hokkaido should be okay with freeze levels remaining pretty low throughout the current range
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Freeze level has been low (I.e zero) in Hokkaido most of the season since I've been following, but Niseko area has been dry as from most accounts. Plenty of snow near Otaru coast tho.
Certainly pays to be mobile and have other options, well played
Thanks for your reply .... absolutely I'm looking forward to reading it
I'll be watching closely there Mr beans. Leave the US on the 21st to spend 6 weeks in Japan. Here's hoping for continued pow!
Go Hokkaido....too much variability in Honshu. That low coming through around the 22nd is a slight pineapple.
Heading off to Honshu tonight for 10 days. Its been a bit quiet here for the past 2 days. Does anyone have an update on snow forecasts for this week please. We will be very flexible to which resorts we ski in the Nagano area
Head to Shiga if/when it warms up. Wind might be your enemy but did this the other week when other areas were raining and got snow all day
Epic Sunny day yesterday in gunma. Sunny this morning here. Heading north east to minimise rain...
Seriously fast moving warm/cold cycles at present making it hard to pick where to go :/
altitude will be your friend to avoid any rain.... look at shiga, kagura etc
Currently at Geto kogen. Pissing down
Temp at about 10am was 5 degrees. Picked the wrong day. Hmmm. I think it's onsen time
I'm at Shiga Kogen right now.... Was a few spots of rain at the bottom of Giant (around 1350m) but absolutely dumping at Ichinose and higher up(around 1650m) The snow is a bit wet. Wind is strong from the west, so windhold hold issues.
Wind hold for the 2 gondolas at Geto. One quad and two pairs running
Rained heavy all night at niseko.
Still mixing between rain and snow down at village level at the moment. Didnt bother to go up for a look as we are packing to move on to Zao then somewhere else after that? will await forecasts to choose
So weather gurus. I'm back in Tokyo over the weekend then heading to asahikawa. The plan was to drive around central Hokkaido for the week. What's the outlook for the coming week in central as opposed to western Hokkaido?
Yes, any people want to guess at next few weeks for Hokkaido? Specifically Niseko which looks way below average for our arrival..........Im seeing a trend towards cooler temps and some snow into the weekend, perhaps a return to real winter conditions after the rain?
Looks like it's started to come down nicely (finally!) on Niseko cams.
Hopefully will stick around for a few days too
I would say looking pretty good for central Hokkaido resorts based on the direction of those lows floating up through central honshu. Monday looks very solid for Furano.
I will be in Hokkaido next week!!!
30 min ago, I go to my car at Shiga Kogen (Maruike, about 1400m) and it's moderate rain.... bigger drops than any time today.....
So I go to the onsen downstairs, come back to the room, look out the window and it's bucketing snow, and now everything is now white, including my car!!!!
Thanks. Snow forecast.com was suggesting ok for there. Lock It in then
Got to Red Warehouse Myoko two hours ago.Superb accomodation.Was raining hard here too.Switched to snow about half an hour ago.Coming down reasonably hard ,praise be to the snow gods.
Where you heading to @Sandy
Meeting TOFF and crew in Niseko
Thanks guys. Heading to the airport right now
Sat on tarmac at Narita. 2 hr delay to departure due to high winds
bloody windy at present at geto kogen (down the road a bit from there). Looks like there's be a bit of snow outside too!
I doubt much will be open up at Geto today. Given the winds now compared to yesterday and they had the 2 gondolas stopped by about 10.30 yesterday. The only thing running was the quad.
I'll drive up and have a look in a couple of hours
Maybe a few cm in Myoko according to friends... Might need to boost to Shiga. Any on ground reports of what the snow was like yday before the snow? Assume anything north facing should still be OK as it should have stayed cold enough?
Geto Kogen update as at 8:30 am
Their 2 gondolas and 1 quad will not be running due to high wind.
That leaves only a couple of pair lifts
Oh well, it wasn't meant to be.
Everything open at Okushiga kogen today. 14cm overnight freshened everything up nicely. Supposed to be around 20cm this evening but today was our last day and heading back home tomorrow. If you're coming this way, enjoy!
By the way, is global warming really happening now?. I'm recently getting to think it's just Urban Heat Island after seeing temperature records on JMA's website. Compared to 120 years ago, the temperatures in big cities like Tokyo, Osaka, etc have risen by 2 to 3 degrees but less than 0.5 degrees in small cities like Abashiri (Abashiri's population is about 50,000).
Another example is the average temperature in Nozawa Onsen hasn't changed in the last 40 years.
1979 = 11.1 degrees(average yearly temperature)
1980 = 9.8
1981 = 9.3
The average between 1979 and 1983 is 10.2 degrees(JMA has Nozawa Onsen's data from 1979)
2012 = 9.4
2013 = 9.8
2014 = 9.4
2015 = 10.2
2016 = 10.5
The average between 2012 and 2016 is 9.86 degrees, which is lower than the temperature 40 years ago.
Not for discussion here.
Try the Bear Pit.
Latest long term forecast from me.
@bengarden @harks98 @neck_deep This might be helpful for you.
And latest satellite picture from the JMA.
Dumping at Shiga Kogen right now!!!!
Your car isn't going to be happy
Your the man!
Cheers. I feel things are moving towards more favourable conditions for Hokkaido for the next few weeks from what you've posted and also snow-forecast.com
15-20cm this morning in Nozawa.. on a hard and bumpy base. Few pockets of goodness though where it wasn't too torn up underneath. Hopefully this Monday night storm delivers the goods once the rain clears.
25-35cm around Shiga Kogen (Kumanoyu /yokoteyama) overnight. The rain didn't hit above 1650m the other day, so all good around here today
I'm in yamagata atm
Looking at wind forecast seems zao will be windy as ? I assume nothing will be open?
Is there any way to check the lift status at zao online ? Can't seem to find much info.
Also how's next week looking for Honshu. Booked in yamagata until 21st. Nothing booked anywhere after that. Any ideas on where to go to chase some cheap snow? Have until the 26th to kill until heading to Nagasaki
Shiga Kogen should survive the variable temps.
Anywhere that might be safe from rain and the wind? I'm thinking higher elevation to avoid rain means only windier and nothing open....
We are getting to the turning point here on Honshu (if it hasn't already started ?) , and we will not get anymore of the 50/60/70cm dumps that we all love IMO .
That's good. We're flying in to Asahikawa tomorrow
Booked shiga kogen for 5 nights
Will try to get up zao tomorrow. See how the weather plays
Been dumping all morning at shiga
IMO start of spring looking really solid for central japan
The young bloke at hakuba reported everything on hold this morning due to lightning. Hope that has since changed.