Japanese Super Hot and Humid Summer 2020 thread

Discussion in 'Daily & Chat' started by Asama, Jun 29, 2020.

  1. Asama

    Asama Early Days

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    Disclaimer: Not my thread title idea!

    2020 so far for me: warmest ever winter → so-so spring → hot summer???

    Stealing the JMA stats from Karuizawa observatory which is the closest and probably most relevant "proper" observatory to me...

    Monthly average temperatures:


    So far every month except April (which was randomly quite cold) has made the top 10 warmest for the respective month. Records go back to 1925 for this location, so just shy of 100 years...

    Jan: warmest ever (beating previous record by 0.5C)
    Feb: 3rd warmest
    Mar: 4th warmest
    Apr: Actually not warm!!
    May: 8th warmest
    Jun: currently 3rd warmest - may end up 2nd depending on how today and tomorrow pan out...

    The JMA long range forecast is for the warm trend to continue... would love to see a return to "normal" temperatures, ie months not in the top 10th percentile! The trend seems pretty clear though :'(

    Nights in particular have struggled to cool down - here are June's temperatures against the 30 year average. You can see it barely dips below average all month:


    Also look at the plot for the last 8(?) years for july... daily lows consistently sticking above average. Not sure what has fundamentally changed to create this effect - maybe higher humidity than in the past?

    On a positive note, over the last week the rainy season has retreated a couple of times to give lovely spring-like days with cool (even chilly) evenings and early mornings. Making the most of them before summer proper kicks in.

    *I'm not a weather expert in any way, shape, or form, although I would like to be... just addicted to the stats.
    Here's where I get them: JMA site
    http://www.data.jma.go.jp/obd/stats...hp?prec_no=&block_no=&year=&month=&day=&view=

    That whole site is a treasure trove... don't know if any other countries publish their data so generously??
     
  2. Ramenman

    Ramenman One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's a weird "farming season" for me so far. April was cold, it was nearly 2 C colder in our farm. And it was rainy too. Cold rain killed a lot of young summer vegetables at our garden / mini-farm. May was nicely warm (significantly warmer than average May). June is also warmer and it's super rainy too. Yes, I know it's rainy season now, but rainning on 6 days out of 7 days (= a week) is a bit too much. Japan's abundant rain is "basically" good for farming but this month's too frequent rain is a bit too much. It's actually making our vegetables and fruits a bit sick. As you said, this May and June are (were) warmer / hotter, but hot May and June are okay in that they are just "early summer" and they are actually not that hot. Hot July and August, I'm very scared of them:eek: and I envy you because you are living in a village of 1,000m asl;)
     
  3. Asama

    Asama Early Days

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    I remember last year (2019) rainy season being extremely wet with barely any let-up, so this year feels OK in comparison, even though it's obviously been raining a lot. I haven't really looked to see how it compares to the average. I think our local geography gives us a lot of precipitation (maybe orographic lift as clouds move over from the west and south are pushed over the Asama chain?) so if it's going to rain anywhere, we get some here.

    PS although nothing to do with summer, in winter we catch the very edge of the lake effect snow when the wind is in the right direction, but it normally doesn't persist all day. Often it is possible to look across the valley and see heavy snow falling around Kusatsu/Sugadaira direction whilst it is sunny here. Interesting how the specific mountains affect how rain/snow falls.
     
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  4. Ramenman

    Ramenman One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    This is from JMA. In a lot of weather stations, the last 30 days (between this May 30th and June 28th) were 2 C warmer / hotter than average year. The image below is automatically updated everyday, so if you see it tomorrow the data will be between May 31th and June 29th.
    [​IMG]
     
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  5. Ramenman

    Ramenman One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    In Kanto region (Kanto = Tokyo area), the rainy season started about 20 days ago (around June 10th). This is the precipitation comparison of the past 20 days (between June 9th and 28th). As you can see, a lot of weather stations have had 150 - 200% precipitation (or even more) compared to average year. This data is also automatically updated everyday (and if you see it tomorrow, it'll be between June 10th and June 29th). It's a nicely sunny day here today, but it had been raining 8 or 9 out of 10 days or so till yesterday.
    [​IMG]
     
  6. Asama

    Asama Early Days

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    I haven't seen those charts before, would you mind sharing the link where I can find them? And is it possible to show them for historical periods? That would be amazing...
     
  7. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Que Sera, Sera Ski Pass: Gold

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  8. Ramenman

    Ramenman One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    You can see it here(You can compare the last 5 days, 10 days, 20 days, 30 days, 60 days and 90 days with average year).
    https://www.data.jma.go.jp/obd/stats/data/mdrr/tenkou/indexTenkouTem5dhi.html

    If you click "地点別データ一覧表", you can see more detailed data of each weather station.

    Not only that, JMA make all historical data available. For example, the website of JMA tells you how the weather was when your wife was born(You only need to choose the nearest weather station, date, etc).
    https://www.data.jma.go.jp/obd/stats/etrn/index.php

    According to JMA's data, Karuizawa has had a lot more hot days in the past(the highest temperature of Karuizawa of June was recorded in 1987, and 8 out of 10 hottest days of June were recorded before 2010 and one of them was 1936!). You can see it here.
    https://www.data.jma.go.jp/obd/stat...=48&block_no=47622&year=&month=6&day=&view=h0
     
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  9. Asama

    Asama Early Days

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    Thanks for that. Yes, I love the JMA site...
    Not just weather, but also earthquake and volcano data, etc etc.
    But the searchable weather history in particular is amazing. Have spent many hours of my life on there.
    Seems very generous to provide this as a free service to the public, actually.
    The UK just offers a miserable selection of monthly data in a format that is hard to read. If you want more than that, they make you pay for it... don't know about other countries.


    Yes, but outliers are less indicative of a trend than the averages (I'm not a mathematician but I know that much!) That's why I'm interested in the monthly averages.
    This month hasn't had any especially hot days (sort moderately hot at the beginning), but still going to be 2nd/3rd warmest on record. My guess is that the lows not getting down to what they "should" be is contributing a lot to pushing up the averages.

    Interestingly (is it? to me at least), this seems to happen a lot more consistently in the summer months when the humidity is high:


    Compare to the winter months where the temp seems to jump around a lot more and shows less of a trend (ignoring the line for the appalling 2019-2020 winter)


    If any weather experts have a theory to explain this, would be interested to hear.
     

    Attached Files:

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  10. Asama

    Asama Early Days

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    Surprise surprise!
    JMA says July gonna be hot as well

     
  11. Ramenman

    Ramenman One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Your village's cabbage farmers might earn a lot due to a hotter summer. Cabbages don't grow (they get sick) in hot & humid climate and hotter summer = cabbages become expensive (your place is cooler than most other Japanese cities;))
     
  12. Asama

    Asama Early Days

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    Yeah, fingers crossed it will be a good year for them. Think there have been problems due to lack of wholesale demand for vegetables (downturn in catering industry). A farmer I know says he was making a loss on lettuce so was forced to plough tens of thousands of lettuces back into the ground. Seems every year there there is some new disaster for farming :p

    Weather is good = wholesale price goes down.
    Weather is bad = crops destroyed and nothing to sell.
    and sometimes, they get lucky (i.e somewhere else's crops get destroyed and price goes up!)

    Seems an unsteady life!
     
  13. Ramenman

    Ramenman One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    It seems some rivers are flooding now. In Japan, mountains are very close to the oceans, which means, rivers tend to be steep. Steep narrow winding rivers + big precipitation = Japan is very flood prone.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    This explain how steep Japanese rivers are. All of the left most rivers are Japanese rivers.
    [​IMG]
     
    #13 Ramenman, Jul 4, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 4, 2020
  14. Ramenman

    Ramenman One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  15. David-eTO

    David-eTO Early Days

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    If you don't mind me asking, how will the rainy season impact on the coming winter?
     
  16. Ramenman

    Ramenman One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think you should ask weather experts such as @Sandy-san about it, not me:rolleyes:. I assume summer weather won't affect the coming winter, though:)
     
  17. Ramenman

    Ramenman One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Special flood warnings have been issued to some regions of Nagano and Gifu. It seems some rivers in Nagano and Gifu are flooding now. This rainy season is too rainy. Leaves of our fruits and vegetables have been always wet (because it has been raining everyday since 3 - 4 weeks ago) and it has made our vegetables and fruits sick:crap:
     
  18. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Kyushu is taking a hammering this summer - again.
     
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  19. Asama

    Asama Early Days

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    Yes, third summer in a row, or at least third out of the last four.
     
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  20. Asama

    Asama Early Days

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    As I understand it, there's no direct connection. Winter is more affected by strength of the siberian high (which starts developing from late summer), arctic oscillation, jet stream position, etc.
    Anecdotally I think the autumn weather often gives clues as to how winter will turn out, but sure meteorologists would disagree.
     
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  21. Ramenman

    Ramenman One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Great!, we've got a new Tenki-sensei(Tenki = weather):cool:. You are Asama-sensei;).

    Come to think of it, I remember a heavy rain hit Tsumagoi, causing landslide last year. Why I remember it is because a road to a ski resort was closed due to the land slide. Do you remember it?. You are interested in geology?. I'm a bit interested in geology, so whenever I drive on a mountain road, I enjoy estimating the risk of landslide, flooding, etc:p
     
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  22. Asama

    Asama Early Days

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    Yes, we were hit badly by Typhoon 19 (along with many other places). The photo below is 国道406 (aka 144) between Ozasa and Tashiro. I took this pic in January 2020, 3 months after typhoon, and no sign of any repairs. Still not reopened and not sure when it will be.

    I think the landslide you remember may have been on the road to Kazawa snow area/Kyukamura? People were left stranded for several days at Kyukamura...



    PS, I don't claim to be a weather expert, I just find it very interesting (hence being on this forum at all, as a non-skier)
     
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  23. Ramenman

    Ramenman One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Reportedly, 84 rivers have flooded and 179 landslides have been confirmed this week (as of this morning)