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July 10-16th Predictions

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by MisterMxyzptlk, Jun 26, 2009.

  1. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    With this next system, the way the winds kick around to the NW looks promising for the major resorts. The small southern resorts (Baw Baw, Lake Mountain) probably won't do very well, the way the models are shaping up.

    I'm not too sure, but I think I have seen a slight downgrade in moisture over the last couple of GFS runs. The way things are shaping up, I don't know if it's a good or bad thing. BoM has remained constant with the overall totals over the last few runs (~25mm for much of Victoria).

    I stick by what I have been saying all along and say the cold air has more puff than what the models are suggesting.
     
  2. Squidly

    Squidly One of Us

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    A good pick up in snow depth around the middle of July is consistent with historical data, thats not to say this system will deliver, perhaps the next. I don't think there will be a clear picture of next week till the charts are revised on the weekend.
     
  3. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    After this system GFS suggests a number of simple cold front events with the 540 line over the resorts. 10mm of rain tops out of each one (call it 10cm snow), but when they occur every three or four days it adds up.
     
    #153 ice_man, Jul 8, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  4. alpino

    alpino Hard Yards

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    Consolation prize if all that rain reach the catchments . As much as I love the snow , we must welcome the rain when it comes , unfortunately we can't choose time and place. Hopefully we get an amazing August and September .

    Everybody allowed to [​IMG] on me.
    Got my umbrella ready.
    [​IMG]
     
    #154 alpino, Jul 8, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  5. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    IMO forget about this weekend and whether it rains or snows.

    If this system is going to produce the goods I think it will be what comes around next Wednesday give or take a day. As some are saying the potential is there for a juicey storm. To my eye if it happens it looks like one of those rare events in Australia where a good quantity of snow will be combined with genuinely good snow quality as well.
     
  6. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Agreed 100% tooe
     
    #156 Donza, Jul 8, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  7. alpino

    alpino Hard Yards

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    Then it will be perfect , rain in the dams and lots snow in the mountains .
     
  8. Mega Man

    Mega Man First Runs

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    Re: July 10-16th Predictions (Monster)

    Is snow just c*(p these days compared to the past thanks to climate change? I feel depressed every year when it feels like hanging on the edge of my seat hoping for something that is not ice or slushy stuff that we pay a fortune to go and 'enjoy' - or is this normal weather? I have seen trend graphs showing a remarkable drop in snow depth over the years and a worrying photo about empty rivers up there and so on..

    What's the REAL story from people in the know and with experience?
     
  9. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 10-16th Predictions (Monster)

    Last 11 Years

    98 - Shocker.
    99 - Even worse.
    00 - Ripper - Early snow, and consistent all the way through.
    01 - Shocker except 1 dump in late Aug
    02 - Good early snow but petered out..
    03 - Not much till late July, then epic all the way through October
    04 - Up there with 00 - one of the best since the early '90's
    05 - Poor.
    06 - Worse than '05
    07 - Good June/July, dry then rain in August so Sept was a struggle.
    08 - Virtually nothing till mid July then fantastic skiing afterwards.

    So in the 10 years I worked at Buller (98-07) I had 4 Poor seasons, 4 Good seasons and 2 Exceptional ones.
     
  10. Hammerhead

    Hammerhead First Runs

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    Re: July 10-16th Predictions (Monster)

    Typical Australian cycle. We just have to live with the fact that on a dry continent at relatively low latitude, with NO elevation to speak of, our seasons will always be marginal. Or move to Canada... Though I predict this system will help [​IMG]
     
    #160 Hammerhead, Jul 8, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  11. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 10-16th Predictions (Monster)

    I also just realised I can't count.
     
  12. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not sure which thread it was but in a thread last year, some statistical data showed that the percentage of "poor" seasons had only increased marginally over the last 50 years in comparison to the the preceding 50 years!

    As is stated every year around this time (and last year is a perfect example) you can't judge a season until at least mid July and even then things can and do turn around!

     
  13. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think snowmaking really bolsters poor seasons.

    Years like 1973 when the lifts never opened don't happen anymore - in a poor snow year at the very least most resorts can get 3-4 main runs open with snowmaking, so the season is pretty bad but not a complete write-off.
     
  14. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Based on that info carveman, we are probably just about due for blockbuster of a season (in terms of snow depth)! Maybe this the year... [​IMG]
     
    #164 mick chopps, Jul 8, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  15. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    If it had started snowing a fortnight earlier, you could have classed last year as a near-blockbuster, the conditions were sensational for the second half of July, all of August and the start of September.
     
  16. Mega Man

    Mega Man First Runs

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    so it's normal for the season to pick up in July - I always get confused because the season 'opens' in June when there is often BA snow and just a whole lot of TV reporters giggling as some snowball gets chucked at them from off camera and declaring what a great time they are having.

    The Canberra Times has a front page article showing how 'climate change' is accelerating in the snowy's but you guys think the real stats show it's basically normal behaviour (touch and go).
     
  17. Ramshead

    Ramshead One of Us

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    That story is written by a lazy journalist who never ever researches her own stories and recycles tired old CSIRO stats as fresh news, time and time again. I know, I used to work with her.

    There are two ways to tell how snowdepth is going year-on-year in the NSW SNowy Mts. Snowy Hydro official snowdepths, and the observations of people in this forum.

    In otehr news, I PREDICT a moderator is about to step in and tell everyone to stay on topic.
     
    #167 Ramshead, Jul 8, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  18. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Stay on topic. [​IMG]
     
    #168 Sandy, Jul 8, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  19. Squidly

    Squidly One of Us

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    The June LWE is a bit of a joke, other places in the world start around the winter solstice, thats end of June for us. Historically the June LWE was usually the last working bee for ski clubs before the season started.

    If you check historical charts July/August are the months of reliable snowfall, with the peak sometime within the first 3 weeks of Aug (for depth). That said if not enough snow has fallen in July to get a reasonable base, then August becomes touch and go, particularly after mid Aug when its starts to warm up (unless there is a major dump). Personally I do not book anything outside of August or the last week of July.

    In regards to this system and towards the end of the month - I would be surprised if there wasn't some reasonable snowfalls. I would rather have weather activity (rain, snow or mix), rather than fat slow blocking highs where there is no chance of snowfall.
     
  20. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    If you check historical charts late July & August are the months of reliable snowfall, with the long term average peak at the end of the first week in September(for depth).
     
  21. DaveM

    DaveM Addicted

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    Mega Man - you can bemoan the doom and gloom out there or you can do what thousands of people do each week, get out into what is there and enjoy it. Fact is at the moment you can find plenty of snow in a number of locations for skiing and snowplay. Even at "LOWLY" (or LOW) Selwyn there is 100% coverage of the resort and no restriction of any run. Get out and enjoy it somewhere.

    Looking forward to whatever this change brings, we are in the start of the great time of the year.

    EC shows the cool air coming earlier so hopefully that is correct.
     
  22. Dr_Cucumber

    Dr_Cucumber Hard Yards

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    Just quickly: Check out the long term snow depth analysis thread in the weather forum. Some stats here; though, note that IMO much of theh downward trend is biased buy extrordinary snow falls in the late 50's early 60's. A clearer picture may emerge if I can get hold of 30's and 40's data.

     
  23. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    There were were extraordinary snow falls right through the 1920,30,40s as well.

    However, this is OFF TOPIC.

    You can start a new thread if you like.
     
    #173 Sandy, Jul 8, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  24. Mega Man

    Mega Man First Runs

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    Interesting... I am glad I got my facts straight on this forum - so basically it's pretty normal - some decades great, not so great, etc, just get out there and enjoy it... I think the June 'opening' is always what had me confused.

    I am thinking of some day trips down to Selwyn for some simple fun in late July then.
     
  25. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    STAY ON TOPIC.

    This is predictions July 10-16th
     
  26. main street

    main street Sun Peaks Resident

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    What do you think about this system Sandy ?
     
    #176 main street, Jul 8, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  27. Axe_L_Thief

    Axe_L_Thief Hard Yards

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    If your referring to the Empty Snowy River. It is no where near as full as it used to be as most of the water is diverted to the Murray as a result of the Snowy Mountains Scheme.
     
  28. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    KEEP IT ON TOPIC.

    This is predictions July 10-16th
     
  29. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think it will peak too early
     
    #179 Sandy, Jul 8, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  30. Hammerhead

    Hammerhead First Runs

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    Consequences?
     
    #180 Hammerhead, Jul 8, 2009
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  31. ahronshapiro

    ahronshapiro Hard Yards

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    Consequences for an early peaker would be either too much rain at the beginning of the weather event and too little snow at the end or it could also be construed to mean that the heaviest precipitation will fall West of Melbourne.
     
  32. Hammerhead

    Hammerhead First Runs

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    Maybe. I'm curious to know what 'He who should be obeyed' thinks will happen. For mine, it may have an early peak but not too early. This thing currently looks like it's going to keep on peaking, and right over the top of the alps from approx early Tuesday onwards for at least a couple of days. Peaks early and peaks often, I'm okay with that.
     
    #182 Hammerhead, Jul 8, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  33. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well, if it peaks too early(too far west), the pressure will not be as low, and there won't be as much moisture.
    The possibility of rain is more dependent on how far north the early peak pushes. If it's too far north, it will likely rain on the snowfields.
     
  34. Mega Man

    Mega Man First Runs

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    Next week is looking pretty good.. Lots of lows on the way? I predict good snow.
     
  35. rodatthebay

    rodatthebay First Runs

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    The snow level for Saturday on weatherzone is now down to 1700m, Im sure it was 2000m last time I looked.

    All going well for the higher resorts we should see at least wet snow from Saturday night onwards.
     
  36. Hotham Yetti

    Hotham Yetti First Runs

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    Weatherzone has dropped there maximum and minimum temps forecast for saturday and sunday at hotham from:

    Sat:
    Earlier today: Max 1 Min 0
    Current: Max: 1 Min -1

    Sun:
    Earlier: Max 2 Min 1
    Current: Max 0 Min -1

    Hopefully they are right and those temps keep on dropping.
     
    #186 Hotham Yetti, Jul 8, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  37. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    The afternoon BOM update for the NSW Snowies and the Weatherzone snow forecast are quite different from each other this afternoon. Weatherzone has mostly rain over the weekend (amybe some snow higher up) followed by potential for a good fall of snow early to mid week then cold south westerlies. BOM has snowline lowering to 1300m Sunday then just isolated showers in a westerly flow after that.

    The fronts for next week (not this weekend)I think will still keep there punch even if they do peak too far west. The last system initially looked like doing the same but the cold pool down south was strong enough to keep producing cold fronts over the south east even though it originally peaked over Western Australia first. My theory here is that low pressure troughs are forming more readily over the continent at the moment, possibly due to warmer sea temps in the Indian Ocean providing a good moisture source that is providing energy to frontal systems as they move north. This allows them to maintain there strength. This helps low pressure keep up over the continent so the trailing highs are pushed back west a bit into the position that typically allows them to pull cold air north over Australia so then we get these multi frontal systems we've had this year. Both big storms this winter started with a warmer front first that was more westerly with plenty of moisture then a second colder front from the south west.

    If my thoery is anywhere near right the trick is to see where the water vapour (look at the precipitable water chart for an indicator of this)is trailing across Australia as the front approaches the south east. Last week water vapour came in from the WNW into NSW where the fronts fed off it. Yesterdays GFS update had it coming from a more northerly direction for this front next week then spiralling anticlockwise into the Tasman so not likely to link up quite as well. The spiral bit did however actually came back around and was fed back into the low pressure cell GFS had sitting to the south of Australia about next Wednesday (but with not as much moisture).

    Crap I wrote an essay. Obviously trying to forecast snowfall is more exciting then doing work!
     
  38. Hammerhead

    Hammerhead First Runs

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    Noice. And watch for a little cut off forming just west of Tassie come Tues/Wed. That'll seal the deal.
     
  39. Cliff-jumper_2000

    Cliff-jumper_2000 First Runs

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    looks like rain to me over the weekend! But i think it wont be to bad looks to peak to the west of the state so this could save to much damage. Into next week looks better for snow not a heap atm but with a series of fronts should get snow over a few days.
     
  40. fdxrate

    fdxrate Hard Yards

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    I'm going for snow at Perisher from Saturday afternoon onwards through until at least Wednesday, probably 40cm to 50cm all up during this period. Thredbo village may get some rain Saturday because it is lower.
     
  41. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    There are some cold uppers coming in from around Sunday afternoon, but anything before that i dont see snow at any of the resorts. It's weird, 500mb temps are cold but 850 temps dont seem to agree with the uppers.

    LWT is absolutely funky doo da for this timeframe, it has no clue what is going to happen.

    Plenty of moisture around, and plenty of fronts coming through. Im beginning to like this a little more but i still need some convincing to ensure it will deliver the goods and not rain.
     
  42. nisstrust

    nisstrust One of Us

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    is there still the remote possibility that this system could turn into a 80cm+ dumpage over its duration? or is that totally out of the question.
     
  43. main street

    main street Sun Peaks Resident

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    I have a better chance of winning Powerball.
     
  44. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think 80cms is very conservative for these dates.
     
  45. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Verm - you got a sniff of something?
     
  46. alpino

    alpino Hard Yards

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    #196 alpino, Jul 8, 2009
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  47. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    #197 Donza, Jul 8, 2009
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  48. alpino

    alpino Hard Yards

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    In facts the weather has become so erratic that no super computer can predict it 100%.
    It can say ' it will snow' or ' it will rain' but they don't have a clue about the quantity.

    (Some places in my region in Italy this year got 4m in a 72 hrs snowstorm , did they predict so much snow ? Go ask the people who were isolated for three weeks [​IMG])

    Do they ever get fired this weather forecasters ? [​IMG]

    I love surprises [​IMG]
     
    #198 alpino, Jul 8, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  49. alpino

    alpino Hard Yards

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    Sorry , what's is : "donkey kong." ? [​IMG]
     
    #199 alpino, Jul 8, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  50. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Keep it on topic.