July 10-16th Predictions

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by MisterMxyzptlk, Jun 26, 2009.

  1. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    WZ going for up to 60mm of moisture for the next week at this stage, not a bad lookout.
     
  2. alpino

    alpino Hard Yards

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    Sorry [​IMG]
     
    #202 alpino, Jul 8, 2009
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  3. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    Weather is not 'becoming' more eratic, it has always been hard to predict as there are so many variables, escpecially for small areas such as our alpine region.

    Back on topic. Looks good for early next week but this weekend is looking questionable. WZ have been good with these last systems and snow at 1700 is encouraging for Sat but that NW feed and how early it hits will determine how much r&^% we get.

    Hopefully the morning runs will give us a better idea.
     
  4. alpino

    alpino Hard Yards

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    #204 alpino, Jul 8, 2009
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  5. alpino

    alpino Hard Yards

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    #205 alpino, Jul 8, 2009
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  6. Rensburg

    Rensburg First Runs

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    ############## Off Topic Post ###############
     
  7. main street

    main street Sun Peaks Resident

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    #207 main street, Jul 8, 2009
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  8. FatBob

    FatBob Hard Yards

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    Charts have this looking a bit better today.

    Not so much pre-fontal and nice and cold on Monday.

    Improvement from earlier on in the week anyway..
     
  9. ahronshapiro

    ahronshapiro Hard Yards

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    Weatherzone would now appear to have a good prognosis for the back end of this system, by the looks of it.
    BOM seems less enthused.
     
  10. SkiMun

    SkiMun Part of the Furniture

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    This thread is getting messy....

    From now on this is strictly predictions only thread about the specific system being discussed.

    In the interest of keeping noise levels down all other posts will be deleted.

    Thanks guys! [​IMG]
     
    #210 SkiMun, Jul 9, 2009
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  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    That's the way I see it too (at least on GFS)
     
    #211 Claude Cat, Jul 9, 2009
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  12. SkiMun

    SkiMun Part of the Furniture

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    A couple of days ago GFS was saying 1900-2000m snow level for Fri/Sat. Today it dropped it down to about 1800 and dropping through Sat so yea it is looking a bit better.
     
  13. newxr

    newxr First Runs

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    Sorry to be a party pooper but to me Saturday is looking ugly! Unfortunately not only rain but episodes of heavy rain (10mm in half hour is more damaging than 20mm over 6 hours). Although it looks sweet from Sunday arvo onwards, not sure if there is enugh moisture to replace what will be lost.
     
  14. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    hey mate welcome.
    How did you work that out [​IMG]

    I don't even see 20mm of rain over the alps on saturday total.
     
    #214 Donza, Jul 9, 2009
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  15. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    #215 skiflat, Jul 9, 2009
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  16. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    #216 Donza, Jul 9, 2009
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  17. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    As per the observations thread, I don't look at NSW resorts only VIC [​IMG]

    For VIC rain is the word, depending on temps, really hard to call this one, but all models have been dropping the temps and amount of precip each update which is a good sign
     
    #217 skiflat, Jul 9, 2009
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  18. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Even then..youre looking at 1600-1700 freeze level.
    Plus the Northerly flow will cut down on rain in the vicco alps.
     
    #218 Donza, Jul 9, 2009
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  19. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like I might be sleeping in on Sat morning with a quick run to Koflers and back my only outdoor expeditions.

    Better bring some good bottles of Red!
     
  20. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Most of the snow in Victoria comes from the northwest, so any northerly flow won't cut down any precipitation by much.
     
  21. dpt

    dpt Hard Yards

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    If Buller village is at 1600 does that mean we might get some snow on saturday?
     
  22. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I actually read otherwise. On WZ once upon a time. It said some of the Victorian resorts can actually be in a semi (not as heavy rain as surrounds) rainshadow from Northerly winds.
     
    #222 Donza, Jul 9, 2009
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  23. dpt

    dpt Hard Yards

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    Donza Plain English please
     
  24. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Sorry a rainshadow is when a large topographical feature (mountain range) can hold up precipitation.
    Much like a barrier in front of a wave. Its flows around it mainly, some over it.
    The Monaro plain is a prime example.
    Also the great dividing range.
     
    #224 Donza, Jul 9, 2009
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  25. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Certainly sounds feasible, particularly for Falls and possibly Hotham I would've thought! I reckon Mt Bogong would be a big enough topographical feature to cause a bit of shadow!
     
  26. Hammerhead

    Hammerhead First Runs

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    To elaborate a little further, the 'shadowing' effect is typically caused by orographic rainfall, whereby large elevations (ie mountains) cause cloud in prevailing weather systems to be uplifted, much like a bike going over a jump. The uplifting raises the cloud and it's moisture to beyond it's dew point (point at which the water vapuor turns to liquid) thus causing it to dump its load on the mountain. Terrain further 'downstream' of the mountain, or in its 'shadow', thus misses out on much of the rainfall.

    Or something like that...

    see here for better explanation http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orography

    Which I predict may happen. [​IMG]
     
    #226 Hammerhead, Jul 9, 2009
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  27. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some, for example, Baw Baw, Buller.

    But even then, Buller still gets most of it's snow from the northwest. Ask any person who slides there.

    And there is little or no effect at Hotham and Falls Creek... they get 50-80% more snow than Buller
     
    #227 Sandy, Jul 9, 2009
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  28. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Keep it on topic.
     
  29. main street

    main street Sun Peaks Resident

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    [​IMG] [​IMG]

    Giving yourself a stern talking to are we Sandy ?? [​IMG]
     
    #229 main street, Jul 9, 2009
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  30. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    errrrr, Yes.

    Now keep on topic MS!!!! [​IMG]
     
    #230 Sandy, Jul 9, 2009
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  31. Squidly

    Squidly One of Us

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    Whatever way you look at there will be rain, how much and for how long is the question.
     
  32. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Pretty much in a nutshell.

    Then after that there will be snow...more than rain.
     
    #232 Donza, Jul 9, 2009
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  33. bas1

    bas1 Hard Yards

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    just had a look at gfs latest runs. can someone explain to me the significance of the 540 line being so northerly on wednesday/thursday. Does this mean snow is possible in northern nsw at high altitude? just curious.
     
  34. main street

    main street Sun Peaks Resident

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    Yes.

    Providing there's the moisture to make it.

    That's how you end up with snow in places like Orange, Tamworth & Bathurst.

    Plus on the central coastal ranges..... Barrington Tops et al.
     
  35. Luken

    Luken One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I personally think that we will pretty much break even in terms of depth above 1600m over the weekend. There will be a period of rain before it turns to snow. Just how much falls as rain and how much falls as snow is very difficult to say even at this stage.

    If I was a betting man....oh hang on I am [​IMG] ......

    I would be putting my money on a net loss for anything under 1600 before monday. Then from Monday onwards Buller and Baw Baw may see 10cm on top of a reduced base, and probably a bit more fresh than the more northern resorts.

    Hotham, Falls, Main range resorts will probably record a slight increase overall but certainly nothing to get too excited about. However that is going on todays models, so as per usual we just have to hope for a change for the better over the coming 36 hours.
     
    #235 Luken, Jul 9, 2009
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  36. main street

    main street Sun Peaks Resident

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    Meanwhile,.....

    Looks like the Nth Island of NZ will get either blown off the map or flooded .... or both!

    Saturday looks real nasty !!!
     
  37. dmz

    dmz More cheeeese Gromit Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just the day we arrive in the north island of NZ for hols....good timing
     
    #237 dmz, Jul 9, 2009
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  38. SkiMun

    SkiMun Part of the Furniture

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    This thread doesn't care about NZ. Let's get it back on track.
     
  39. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    I think the overall moisture has downgraded again on GFS. However I stick by my guns for next week. The cold air will bring more moisture than is anticipated.

    I'm seeing rain through Saturday, snow to 1500 metres Saturday night, clearing on Sunday, lower snow on Monday. I'm calling a net gain above 1600 metres by mid next week.
     
  40. BH

    BH One of Us

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    In honour of Andee who has been very quiet since his fopar on the last front.

    FIZZZZZEEEEERRRRRR!!!!!!
     
  41. main street

    main street Sun Peaks Resident

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    I don't think it's in the fizzer bucket just yet.....

    Still some major differences between GFS & GASP as to how this will play out.

    There is some moisture in the system, but certainly not as much as previously indicated. The temps are the nice factor here now too.

    I still think we're looking a a reasonable gain by the end of next week..... maybe 20-30cm in total.
     
  42. Hammerhead

    Hammerhead First Runs

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    I'm yet to reconcile with the models forecasting that the low will jump north and run out of puff near Adelaide. It's not the lock that it looked like a few days ago but it could easily fire up in the waters south west of Tassie and be the dumper we want.
     
    #242 Hammerhead, Jul 10, 2009
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  43. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    [​IMG]

    I predicted 50cms base at Buller and they got 52cms [​IMG]

    As for this one

    Should get about 10-20cms after the rain

    As for how much rain too hard to guess at the moment!
     
    #243 skiflat, Jul 10, 2009
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  44. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Hmm. Now I can finally see why there appears to be little moisture with the cold air. There is another high south of Tassie blocking it off. With my (admittedly limited) experience, I rarely see those things form so far south, even in summer! [​IMG]

    At the very least the low actually dies over us, instead of over Adelaide.
     
    #244 ice_man, Jul 10, 2009
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  45. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Most of the moisture in a typical cold front precedes the frontal boundary, so when you get the colder air after the front, most of the moisture is gone.
     
  46. alpino

    alpino Hard Yards

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    Excuse the off topic : is there a reason for this constant , stubborn , persistent High pressure in this corner of Aus that block and push south most cold fronts coming from the west ?
    [​IMG]
     
    #246 alpino, Jul 10, 2009
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  47. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    As far as I understand its all about the jetstream. Moisture comes from the tropics (Indian Ocean) with the tropical jetstream. Strong cold fronts come from the Southern Ocean pulled up by the polar jetstream. Link them up on top of us and we are in business. If the polar jet is late arriving as it often is we get Sandy's situation above.

    This is where this system is lacking IMO. The tropical jet is bringing moisture to the south east over the weekend but the polar jet will have already peaked over WA and be diving south. This results in the cold front weakening as it moves east to us so it may not be cold enough for much snow. The stronger cold fronts arrive in the new week as the polar jetstream pushes north closer to us but the tropical jetstream will have packed its bags and moved north taking our moisture into the Tasman. So no linking up for the promised big dump!

    I'm actually starting to expect that higher areas will do quite well this week anyway. Forecast snowlines in this weakening front for Sunday still look ok for higher resorts (hopefully, very borderline) and then instead of our usual one front after the moisture that quickly gets squeezed out by highs it looks like we will see a series of them over about 3-4 days each bringing a little bit of snow. No one front over the next week will be the banana but all up from Sunday to Thursday higher resorts could get some reasonable accumulations IMO, even if its nothing to get excited about.

    Then fine and sunny by the following weekend. Hhmm time for me to organise a weekend warrior ski trip!
     
  48. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    The next couple of days do not seem as bad as originally forecast. Temps in Adealise are relatively low for a northerly feed and plenty of moisture.
    WZ are going for snow tomorrow above 1650 which I reckon will be around 1750 - 1800m so it is going to be a bit sticky up there (in NSW).
    Next week the moisture does look to disappear but that was also in the models for this last front. Still 10-20cm gain for the next 6 days.
     
  49. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Exactly my point for my last few posts. The models aren't fetching much but 5cms a day for four days is a reasonable top up.
     
    #249 ice_man, Jul 10, 2009
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  50. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    BOM still going for 1700m snowline tomorrow and 1600m Sunday. I'm kind of doubtful particularly for the 1700m on Saturday!