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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by MisterMxyzptlk, Jun 26, 2009.
WZ going for up to 60mm of moisture for the next week at this stage, not a bad lookout.
Weather is not 'becoming' more eratic, it has always been hard to predict as there are so many variables, escpecially for small areas such as our alpine region.
Back on topic. Looks good for early next week but this weekend is looking questionable. WZ have been good with these last systems and snow at 1700 is encouraging for Sat but that NW feed and how early it hits will determine how much r&^% we get.
Hopefully the morning runs will give us a better idea.
Is this site reliable ?
This one looks very detailed
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They do a better job with Northern Hemisphere resorts than they do with Aus ones.
Charts have this looking a bit better today.
Not so much pre-fontal and nice and cold on Monday.
Improvement from earlier on in the week anyway..
Weatherzone would now appear to have a good prognosis for the back end of this system, by the looks of it.
BOM seems less enthused.
This thread is getting messy....
From now on this is strictly predictions only thread about the specific system being discussed.
In the interest of keeping noise levels down all other posts will be deleted.
That's the way I see it too (at least on GFS)
A couple of days ago GFS was saying 1900-2000m snow level for Fri/Sat. Today it dropped it down to about 1800 and dropping through Sat so yea it is looking a bit better.
Sorry to be a party pooper but to me Saturday is looking ugly! Unfortunately not only rain but episodes of heavy rain (10mm in half hour is more damaging than 20mm over 6 hours). Although it looks sweet from Sunday arvo onwards, not sure if there is enugh moisture to replace what will be lost.
hey mate welcome.
How did you work that out
I don't even see 20mm of rain over the alps on saturday total.
Thats on the western side of the ranges. NW pastoral. Due to the northerly nature of the wind its not progged to get too heavy over the Alps.
As per the observations thread, I don't look at NSW resorts only VIC
For VIC rain is the word, depending on temps, really hard to call this one, but all models have been dropping the temps and amount of precip each update which is a good sign
Even then..youre looking at 1600-1700 freeze level.
Plus the Northerly flow will cut down on rain in the vicco alps.
Looks like I might be sleeping in on Sat morning with a quick run to Koflers and back my only outdoor expeditions.
Better bring some good bottles of Red!
Most of the snow in Victoria comes from the northwest, so any northerly flow won't cut down any precipitation by much.
If Buller village is at 1600 does that mean we might get some snow on saturday?
I actually read otherwise. On WZ once upon a time. It said some of the Victorian resorts can actually be in a semi (not as heavy rain as surrounds) rainshadow from Northerly winds.
Donza Plain English please
Sorry a rainshadow is when a large topographical feature (mountain range) can hold up precipitation.
Much like a barrier in front of a wave. Its flows around it mainly, some over it.
The Monaro plain is a prime example.
Also the great dividing range.
Certainly sounds feasible, particularly for Falls and possibly Hotham I would've thought! I reckon Mt Bogong would be a big enough topographical feature to cause a bit of shadow!
To elaborate a little further, the 'shadowing' effect is typically caused by orographic rainfall, whereby large elevations (ie mountains) cause cloud in prevailing weather systems to be uplifted, much like a bike going over a jump. The uplifting raises the cloud and it's moisture to beyond it's dew point (point at which the water vapuor turns to liquid) thus causing it to dump its load on the mountain. Terrain further 'downstream' of the mountain, or in its 'shadow', thus misses out on much of the rainfall.
Or something like that...
see here for better explanation http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orography
Which I predict may happen.
Some, for example, Baw Baw, Buller.
But even then, Buller still gets most of it's snow from the northwest. Ask any person who slides there.
And there is little or no effect at Hotham and Falls Creek... they get 50-80% more snow than Buller
Keep it on topic.
Giving yourself a stern talking to are we Sandy ??
Now keep on topic MS!!!!
Whatever way you look at there will be rain, how much and for how long is the question.
Pretty much in a nutshell.
Then after that there will be snow...more than rain.
just had a look at gfs latest runs. can someone explain to me the significance of the 540 line being so northerly on wednesday/thursday. Does this mean snow is possible in northern nsw at high altitude? just curious.
Providing there's the moisture to make it.
That's how you end up with snow in places like Orange, Tamworth & Bathurst.
Plus on the central coastal ranges..... Barrington Tops et al.
I personally think that we will pretty much break even in terms of depth above 1600m over the weekend. There will be a period of rain before it turns to snow. Just how much falls as rain and how much falls as snow is very difficult to say even at this stage.
If I was a betting man....oh hang on I am ......
I would be putting my money on a net loss for anything under 1600 before monday. Then from Monday onwards Buller and Baw Baw may see 10cm on top of a reduced base, and probably a bit more fresh than the more northern resorts.
Hotham, Falls, Main range resorts will probably record a slight increase overall but certainly nothing to get too excited about. However that is going on todays models, so as per usual we just have to hope for a change for the better over the coming 36 hours.
Looks like the Nth Island of NZ will get either blown off the map or flooded .... or both!
Saturday looks real nasty !!!
Just the day we arrive in the north island of NZ for hols....good timing
This thread doesn't care about NZ. Let's get it back on track.
I think the overall moisture has downgraded again on GFS. However I stick by my guns for next week. The cold air will bring more moisture than is anticipated.
I'm seeing rain through Saturday, snow to 1500 metres Saturday night, clearing on Sunday, lower snow on Monday. I'm calling a net gain above 1600 metres by mid next week.
In honour of Andee who has been very quiet since his fopar on the last front.
I don't think it's in the fizzer bucket just yet.....
Still some major differences between GFS & GASP as to how this will play out.
There is some moisture in the system, but certainly not as much as previously indicated. The temps are the nice factor here now too.
I still think we're looking a a reasonable gain by the end of next week..... maybe 20-30cm in total.
I'm yet to reconcile with the models forecasting that the low will jump north and run out of puff near Adelaide. It's not the lock that it looked like a few days ago but it could easily fire up in the waters south west of Tassie and be the dumper we want.
I predicted 50cms base at Buller and they got 52cms
As for this one
Should get about 10-20cms after the rain
As for how much rain too hard to guess at the moment!
Hmm. Now I can finally see why there appears to be little moisture with the cold air. There is another high south of Tassie blocking it off. With my (admittedly limited) experience, I rarely see those things form so far south, even in summer!
At the very least the low actually dies over us, instead of over Adelaide.
Most of the moisture in a typical cold front precedes the frontal boundary, so when you get the colder air after the front, most of the moisture is gone.
Excuse the off topic : is there a reason for this constant , stubborn , persistent High pressure in this corner of Aus that block and push south most cold fronts coming from the west ?
As far as I understand its all about the jetstream. Moisture comes from the tropics (Indian Ocean) with the tropical jetstream. Strong cold fronts come from the Southern Ocean pulled up by the polar jetstream. Link them up on top of us and we are in business. If the polar jet is late arriving as it often is we get Sandy's situation above.
This is where this system is lacking IMO. The tropical jet is bringing moisture to the south east over the weekend but the polar jet will have already peaked over WA and be diving south. This results in the cold front weakening as it moves east to us so it may not be cold enough for much snow. The stronger cold fronts arrive in the new week as the polar jetstream pushes north closer to us but the tropical jetstream will have packed its bags and moved north taking our moisture into the Tasman. So no linking up for the promised big dump!
I'm actually starting to expect that higher areas will do quite well this week anyway. Forecast snowlines in this weakening front for Sunday still look ok for higher resorts (hopefully, very borderline) and then instead of our usual one front after the moisture that quickly gets squeezed out by highs it looks like we will see a series of them over about 3-4 days each bringing a little bit of snow. No one front over the next week will be the banana but all up from Sunday to Thursday higher resorts could get some reasonable accumulations IMO, even if its nothing to get excited about.
Then fine and sunny by the following weekend. Hhmm time for me to organise a weekend warrior ski trip!
The next couple of days do not seem as bad as originally forecast. Temps in Adealise are relatively low for a northerly feed and plenty of moisture.
WZ are going for snow tomorrow above 1650 which I reckon will be around 1750 - 1800m so it is going to be a bit sticky up there (in NSW).
Next week the moisture does look to disappear but that was also in the models for this last front. Still 10-20cm gain for the next 6 days.
Exactly my point for my last few posts. The models aren't fetching much but 5cms a day for four days is a reasonable top up.
BOM still going for 1700m snowline tomorrow and 1600m Sunday. I'm kind of doubtful particularly for the 1700m on Saturday!