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July 10-16th Predictions

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by MisterMxyzptlk, Jun 26, 2009.

  1. Fastlaner

    Fastlaner Hard Yards

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    The temps today have been much lower than I expected for the NE feed.
    There doesn't seem to be a defining cold front with this system (yet).

    IMO, the charts have been out of wack all week as far as the 540 line and the direction of the winds. The charts have consistently shown a NW airstream for Adelaide but the Obs have it NE all day.

    This could actually bring some 'pre frontal' snow instead of rain if the temps in the Alps drop like they have in SA and western Vic.
     
  2. Carvemeister

    Carvemeister First Runs

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    I sure hope your right fast.....heading to PB and Thredbo mid august..(i know a long ways away yet)...but hoping for some decent falls to consolidate that base instead of base killing rain [​IMG]
     
    #252 Carvemeister, Jul 10, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  3. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    I agree! Even at Baw Baw the temp is down to 1.3C and the front hasn't even hit yet! (Fingers crossed...) There could be a cold 'hole' in the rain band. The cloud cover and evaporative effect are causing cold temps on their own.

    Speaking of evaporative effect... that might kill our hopes. There was some incredibly low humidity over SA (down to 30%) before the rain hit (explaining the somewhat low totals). As the air around the Alps is more humid, we could lose 'some' of that evaporative effect. Fingers crossed it's a small 'some'.
     
    #253 ice_man, Jul 10, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  4. adminvb

    adminvb First Runs

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    This always happens with the alps dropping in temps just before the NW rain belt only for it to warm up (even if it falls first as snow). Its a common Australian trait
     
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Vic BOM saying snow over 1500 today and tomorrow. While it's probably not going to be the nicest of days today, we should see some sort of gain over the next two days.
    Going by GFS, we might be looking in the region of 25cm for the week (it looks cold enough right through to friday). Perhaps a little more in the south.
    [​IMG]
     
    #255 Claude Cat, Jul 11, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  6. main street

    main street Sun Peaks Resident

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    GASP has things lining up very nicely.... (almost too nicely actually...)...... That low seen on the +168 next friday could be a surprise packet.....Waaaay too far out to get exited about though.

    Low temps for the 6+ days after today & some reasonable moisture to go with it.... Good conditions for some decent gains both from natural sources & snowmaking IMHO.
     
  7. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    It appears all the crystal ball gazers and internet weather experts have missed the most important indicator of snow with this system

    i.e.

    The Annual South Migration of the Australian Coastal Wood Ducks starts in 20 mins

    [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
    #257 dawooduck, Jul 11, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  8. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Stay on topic.
     
  9. Dr_Cucumber

    Dr_Cucumber Hard Yards

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    It's really interesting how this has panned out. GFS looks a lot better for today than it did a few days ago....and latest observations have it -1.1 and snowing at Hotham (as as 11:00 am) and snowing (albeit off and on) in the village at Buller. I think we will definitely see a nice gain out of this now, particularly in the higher resorts. So much better than the dooms day scenario of a few days back [​IMG]
     
    #259 Dr_Cucumber, Jul 11, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  10. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    I am expecting the snow level to rise during the day so that things will end up a bit wet by days end!

    An active rainband actually warms the atmosphere as the process of water vapour condensation into cloud dumps energy into the atmosphere. As the rainband cranks up, so does the air temp with the main area of warming where the cloud is. The result of that is you can not use the temps for low altitude weather stations as a guide as they are not in the altitude range where the cloudband is forming.

    Only way to really tell if there is warming going on higher up in the atmosphere as the rainband forms is by looking at soundings. You'll see relatively cool temps down low then when you hit the cloud layer there will actually by a warming in the atmosphere rather than the usual continual cooling with altitude. No access to soundings for me though so can't show what I mean or get an idea of what'll happen today.
     
  11. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    #261 Vermillion, Jul 11, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  12. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    Cheers, thanks Vermillion.
     
  13. main street

    main street Sun Peaks Resident

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    Indications still seem to show that the air is generally much cooler than first anticipated.

    I mentioned a few days ago that I couldn't reconcile with what the 540 line was doing & I still can't...... Everything screams at me that the cold air being sucked up from the south by that low & being driven quite quickly by high winds is going to stay cold. Especially considering that the cell now seems to be somewhat isolated (even considering the complex pattern at it's centre).

    Still a waiting game, but I'll stay with 20-30cm net gain by next friday.

    [​IMG]
     
    #263 main street, Jul 11, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  14. SkiMun

    SkiMun Part of the Furniture

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    I am very impressed with how accurate GFS was with its snowline forecast. It had it at 1700m on Sat which meant borderline snow at Buller and that's exactly how it turned out on Saturday. I looked at the sat pic on Sat morning and thought it would have been rain all the way seeing where the moisture was coming from but it wasn't. It actually did snow. [​IMG]
     
    #264 SkiMun, Jul 12, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  15. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    Has everyone stopped predicting on this one and just wathcing it happen?

    Looks to be some good snow on the way and the charts are showing a good cold burst of air for the next few days. Moisture is not huge but I think accumulations of 20-30 is on the money to Friday. WZ have upped their prediction for Mon / Tues and backed of for Wednesday and beyond. A good consistent week of snow is what is needed.
     
  16. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I agree. Lots of small specks of colour on the radar at the moment indicating snow should keep coming down all day today. Then more of the same for next day or two. MesoLaps going for 5-15cm in NSW tomorrow but not as good for VIC.
     
    #266 Snow Blowey, Jul 13, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  17. Squidly

    Squidly One of Us

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    A prevalence of non traditional systems ie NW/SW this year has made it difficult to forecast systems let alone snow amount.

    That said it looks as though Vic will do well this week, with another 20-30 to come, and half that for Tas.
     
  18. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    The low isn't very strong, it's just hanging around and will fizzle out. Its not going to bypass us to create a nice typical SW stream so I just can't see where all this moisture is going to come from over this next week.

    It will be cold, but the pressure will creep up quite high so moisture development will be heavy restricted.

    This system has lost its punch.

    Can't see more then 15cm total accumulation by the end of this week (unless the set up drastically changes in the next day or two).
     
  19. warrie

    warrie Hard Yards

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    Charlottes 30cm overnight was a very pleasant surprise. The westerlies have set in,there is low level moisture and its cold so add a bit of orographic uplift and bingo the white stuff doth fall. Looking at the charts there's a nice cold pool with showers hitting Adelaide now but tracking northeast to drag up more cold air. Numbers are looking good for this Thursday's snow depth.

    Year Depth –cm Peak -cm
    2000 116 262
    2001 52 196
    2002 161 176
    2003 84 201
    2004 128 228
    2005 113 150
    2006 42 85
    2007 136 164
    2008 100 174
    2009 140??? ???

    This would rank 2009 as #2 for this time of year. It's all panning out very nicely indeed...except for this wretched table which won't copy! Any suggestions?... W
     
  20. warrie

    warrie Hard Yards

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    All those sat photo cumulonimbus anvils off the NSW South coast. So near and yet so far. Perhaps a slight trend for NW movement inland. Hey, it's the weather, anything's possible....W