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Predictions July 11-16th #Snownami

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Jul 3, 2015.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Ok, I think this requires separate treatment to the earlier period.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    GFS
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    IMO GFS is too "ECL" based, but if it did come off it would be biblical.
     
  2. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    You could say that. ROFL
    [​IMG]
     
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  3. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    Interesting Could be something good in this date range and very good. IMO
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    We hear it a lot but I do want to compare that +276 GFS chart to 26th May 2000 season starter. Moisture looks solid.
    EC looks way more logical in light of recent blocking highs. GFS maybe thrown by the warm SSTs in the Tasman perhaps?
     
  5. kiter

    kiter One of Us

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    Omg gfs ,access and ec all lining up for something special . Could it be true . Breakdown of blocking high with withering fronts this week indicate it could be so . Fingers crossed
     
  6. incogski

    incogski One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Is this the first time this season models have lined up 10 days out?
     
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  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    AXS 12 & 13th (although AXS has it starting on the 11th)

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  8. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Totally.
    But doesn't mean much at that imaginary range
     
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  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Still a loooong way out. Plenty of time for it to go wrong.
     
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  10. kiter

    kiter One of Us

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    Absolutely
     
  11. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]

    Best setup i've seen for a while.
     
  12. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

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    Looking back at the AXS+216,+240 on 2 July i.e 11 & 12 July, current charts for said days and beyond are stronger; whoa nelly!!!
     
  13. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Way too far out; wake me on Wednesday...
     
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  14. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    This morns EC heralds a new ice age
     
  15. kaegee

    kaegee One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    :eek:
    Oh!... Wake. Predict the scripts need upping .
     
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  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    Ensemble still shows we should be cautious with this one.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  17. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    It does.
    Season of the ever present ridge imo
     
  18. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    This does look very promising, however, the models have already done this to us a few times this season so I'm holding off until mid week before getting my hopes up. Great that they are all agreeing on something, but let's give it a few days eh....

    BTW, where's Donza and his froth? I reckon he'd be calling this a 2 foot storm if he was around..... :D
     
  19. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    It's a four foot storm if it comes off
     
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  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Ridging could be an issue.
     
  21. kiter

    kiter One of Us

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    Really when ? I have not seen anything like this where all models agree and the spag tropo thingy agree. It's still a fair way off though so yes do not get too excited
     
  22. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS is still off its t*ts on this afternoon's run. Must downgrade at some stage.
     
  23. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC still fantastic, but is flip flopping bw this thread and the other

    Maybe restructure and clip the other thread at 8/7 and make this one 9-16th?
     
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  24. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Sorry, poorly worded.

    Definitely first time this season that all models have agreed that something will happen during the same period.

    There has been a string of consistent downgrades from long range runs over the past 4 weeks but all models were showing different things would happen at different times. So far this year, I'd say they are all struggling to get a grip. IMO
     
  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    AXS going with a very strong ECL on the 13th.
     
  26. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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  27. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    06Z GFS is very different from previous runs. Has a monster Low sitting in the Bight most of the weekend.
     
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I never trust the 06 or 18Z runs of GFS.
     
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS has a very broad cold pool pushing into central NSW (!?); Sunday through Tuesday. Sunday 8pm onwards looks like the money maker in terms of cold air and precip.
    As it stands on the current run Saturday may see a few cm's but it looks like ~20cm Sunday night with another 20-25cm for NSW resorts over the course of Monday IMO.
     
  30. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

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    Oh no, it's a snowocalypse!
     
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  31. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us

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    don't jinx it man ! My feet are damn sore from constant snowdancing and dang me if I aint lunk as a drord, hmmm maybe drunk as a lord , from all the hard liquor sacrifices over the past few days. Couldn't find them virgins someone was talking about but I will keep searching.
     
  32. incogski

    incogski One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    What about yourself

    Looool sorry horrible joke and off topic but couldnt resist
     
  33. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us

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    Yr. No seems to be going off this and only predicting a few cm for hotham
     
  34. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Maps still looking good am runs imo
     
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  35. Bearshead62

    Bearshead62 First Runs

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    Hey guys ,love ur work.long time weather stalker,have learnt plenty re weather on this site.forecast is finally giving us some joy,watching with vested interest ( Perisher from the 16th ).keep up the great work )
     
  36. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    Have been sitting on the fence just watching and waiting but next Sunday through to Wed is starting to spark my interest. #snownado
     
  37. CanSurfCantSki

    CanSurfCantSki Hard Yards

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    Yr.no and mountainwatch have both completely gone off this. What gives?
     
  38. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Wouldnt put much reliability on mountain watch forecast yr.no says to me ec has backed off. AXS and GFS still all good.
    Can someone please post ec charts
     
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  39. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us

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    There are a few "forecasters" backing off this system. They aren't saying nothing will happen but are downgrading the expected snowfalls somewhat. Disappointment to some degree yet again. Mountainwatch hasn't completely gone off this system by the way , just a " hedging of bets" ( Grasshoppers words , not mine).
     
  40. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tis the season to be...
     
  41. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Yeah I think last year was the (early) season of upgrades and this season certainly feels like the year of the downgrade.

    EC 12UTC update for Loweeee. Normally it's GFS with the ECL at the end of the run, weird seeing it on EC. Look it's still a long way off and a lot can change - give it a few more days before complete disappointment sets in:

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  42. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS is absolutely nuts though
     
  43. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    The Tuesday into Wednesday progression looks a bit wrong to me on axs.
    GFS looks better progression.
    Ec gone off it a lot.
    Somewhere in between the above 2 would be about realistic imo.
     
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  44. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Yeag a few maps still dont look right. Thanks for the maps fouresquare04
    At perisher now overcast and a bit of a breeze.
     
  45. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us

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    To be honest if we can average 20-30 cms out of this system over the period it would be about a draw between the highs and the lows. A draw is better than a loss imo
     
  46. kiter

    kiter One of Us

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    Perhaps the decayed tc has something to do with it
     
  47. Bato

    Bato One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG] [​IMG]
    Thats "The day after tomorrow" right there. Something will happen during these dates.
     
    #47 Bato, Jul 5, 2015
    Last edited: Jul 5, 2015
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  48. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    ^ Cannot see the image
     
  49. Bato

    Bato One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    better??
     
  50. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep bato, better.

    That's what I'm talking abouuuuut
     
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