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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jul 3, 2015.
Then later Thursday still looking the goods too , AXS G tho'
How would this affect Buller and BB?
Well both are over 800m, so all should be good. It's just colder in the west.
Thanks, CC. Wasn't sure if it would favour Buller or not. Fingers crossed.
IMO not a lot of juice in it. Perhaps 5cm tomorrow.
Yes and AXS showing bit more for Vic Tuesday night - Wed am .
So the one coming in now
That's the one.
Any thoughts on overnight snow for NSW, i.e. Perisher and Thredbo?
Dusting plus , 5 or 10 if we're really lucky.
Cheers, I'll be happy with that. Is the moisture just heading elsewhere this time?
Have a look here for illustration IMO...
Hmmm ............... Moisture seems to dry out quickly when landfall is reached.
But is re-moisturized on reaching the Pacific. Still think it's good for 10-15cm
Yes the model ^
to compare with the actuali.e radar animation and satellite .
Gotta add them all together .
edit : I haven't figured how to embed this stuff like Astro
Next front is moving in the right direction.
But GFS determined to have a flipper chasing the cold air uppers. I wonder where it will bounce. If GFS is spinning out flippers than the next system south of Adelaide is on track.
I am betting $5 GFS is WRONG and its good for some 25 - 40 CM before it goes ECL on the Main Range.
Further evidence that GFS may be having a FLIPPER.
BOM Short forecast appears to be having none of the FLIPPER. Looks good for wednesday.
Yes it is straight to Baw Baw
More Evidence that Wednesday's Dump is going to deliver. GFS is Getting the Front Closer to the ALPS before bouncing and flipping.
Was just thinking the same Wombathead. Trying to track the patth of the cold front on the sat pic and to me it looks like its headed straight to the Alps. I want to believe the models have it wrong. But surely all the maths can't be wrong so close to the event. Lets watch it unfold over the next 24hrs and see.
Looks like it's tracking well to me .
Pushing / rotating up into the Bight
wz Satellite. http://www.weatherzone.com.au/satellite
This is the business. Lingering upper level cold air will make this one seriously cool.
Surprise dump on the cards for later in the week?
EC not that keen on it:
thought it was always on
Well, surprise as in packing more punch than originally thought.....
Jane says anywhere between another 13cm to 34cm by the weekend.
I'm not convinced.
Could do anything.
This will disappoint IMO. Pressure is already high and rises as it crosses the mainland. When it arcs up again on the east coast it will have missed the mountains.
Going off AXS-R I still see excess of 50cm from now until friday night
First the front will cross across Victoria and continue on.
A cold pool will spin up its peripheral.
This cold pool is bloody cold
-6 to -8 at 850hpa
500hpas of -34 to -36
Selwyn will do very well.
Cold pool seems to spin up quite a nice upper level low.
MSLP doesn't show this that well.
snow in strange spots overnight wednesday into thursday.
Snow from the Nor Norwest..
then the ECL injects some SE snow later on.
i think I will have a interesting drive down early thursday
AXS-R has the bullseye on the Monaro /ACT and a freezing level of 900-1000.
Maybe 10 in Vic if lucky imo.
10cm in Orbost probs.
More "Antarctic Vortex"
WEATHER conditions are set to deteriorate from later today as Australia’s deep freeze continues.
A strong cold front is due to arrive tonight, bringing snow down to low levels in Victoria, Tasmania, the ACT and New South Wales.
South Australia will cop the first effects of the latest storm, with showers increasing during the day, with possible hail across the state tonight and tomorrow morning.
Victorians can expect snow to develop overnight and tomorrow with falls likely in the Grampians and some Melbourne suburbs above 700 metres.
Sunday was Melbourne’s wettest July day since 1990, with 28.4mm of rain in the city and falls of more than 20mm across the suburbs, with 100 calls to the State Emergency Service for help as the rain tumbled.
The vigorous air mass will sweep through much of NSW by Thursday with snow forecast to dump once again in areas still trying to defrost from last weekend’s white-out.
Towns likely to see snow again include Orange, Armidale, Glen Innes and Lithgow.
Snowfalls along the Great Dividing Range had eased by late yesterday, but the New England Highway was closed for a time between Glen Innes and Bendemeer because of snowy conditions.
Yeah looks that way.
This looks colder IMO
Though not as well placed.
Check the wind direction on each level.
Tells the story how the low is stacked.
How's this next front looking for Northern NSW? I'll be down in Guyra Wednesday and Thursday for work, bom are predicting snow showers.
"Deep freeze", talk about media hype, and "Antartic vortex"... nothing like a bit of drama to boost the advertising dollars... even the ABC runs with it...
Looks like EC has upgraded expectations for today into tomorrow. IMO
Could see a sneaky 10-20cm in places.
prepare for road closures.
Looking at sat pic/radar ...you would think so
Love it. But all looks too far north for mine.
Bom 4 dayer. My complete amatuer prediction: Snow from midnight Tuesday through to noon Friday with a bluebird weekend.
looking good for Thredbo this weekend!
High pressure says.....Hi.
Stationary windless system say hi.
Totals? Buggered if I would try and guess.
That's out early
Agree, it looks all a tad to North for anything super significant.
Still think 10-20 is on the cards though.
Temps no issue, just the moisture wont be in the right place. IMO
was just thinking this
Looks like a "slow accumulator". Actually this system has been like that. 7 & 10cm per day doesn't sound much, but do it over 7 days and it's a nice result.