Predictions July 11-16th #Snownami

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jul 3, 2015.

  1. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Then later Thursday still looking the goods too , AXS G tho'
     
    #801 nfip, Jul 13, 2015
    Last edited: Jul 13, 2015
  2. stridercdh

    stridercdh Addicted

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    How would this affect Buller and BB?
     
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Well both are over 800m, so all should be good. It's just colder in the west.
     
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  4. stridercdh

    stridercdh Addicted

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    Thanks, CC. Wasn't sure if it would favour Buller or not. Fingers crossed.
     
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO not a lot of juice in it. Perhaps 5cm tomorrow.
     
  6. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes and AXS showing bit more for Vic Tuesday night - Wed am .
     
  7. Mattdejong

    Mattdejong Hard Yards

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    So the one coming in now
     
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  8. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's the one.
     
  9. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Any thoughts on overnight snow for NSW, i.e. Perisher and Thredbo?
     
  10. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dusting plus , 5 or 10 if we're really lucky.
     
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  11. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Cheers, I'll be happy with that. Is the moisture just heading elsewhere this time?
     
  12. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    #812 nfip, Jul 13, 2015
    Last edited: Jul 13, 2015
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  13. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hmmm ............... Moisture seems to dry out quickly when landfall is reached.

    But is re-moisturized on reaching the Pacific. Still think it's good for 10-15cm

    [​IMG]
     
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  14. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes the model ^
    to compare with the actuali.e radar animation and satellite .
    Gotta add them all together .
    edit : I haven't figured how to embed this stuff like Astro
     
    #814 nfip, Jul 13, 2015
    Last edited: Jul 13, 2015
  15. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Next front is moving in the right direction.

    But GFS determined to have a flipper chasing the cold air uppers. I wonder where it will bounce. If GFS is spinning out flippers than the next system south of Adelaide is on track.

    I am betting $5 GFS is WRONG and its good for some 25 - 40 CM before it goes ECL on the Main Range.

    [​IMG]
     
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  16. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Just cause
    [​IMG]
     
  17. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Further evidence that GFS may be having a FLIPPER.

    BOM Short forecast appears to be having none of the FLIPPER. Looks good for wednesday.

    [​IMG]
     
  18. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear One of Us

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    Yes it is straight to Baw Baw :eek::eek:
     
  19. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    More Evidence that Wednesday's Dump is going to deliver. GFS is Getting the Front Closer to the ALPS before bouncing and flipping.

    [​IMG]
     
  20. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Was just thinking the same Wombathead. Trying to track the patth of the cold front on the sat pic and to me it looks like its headed straight to the Alps. I want to believe the models have it wrong. But surely all the maths can't be wrong so close to the event. Lets watch it unfold over the next 24hrs and see.
     
  21. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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  22. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    This is the business. Lingering upper level cold air will make this one seriously cool.
     
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  23. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Surprise dump on the cards for later in the week?

    EC not that keen on it:

    [​IMG]
     
  24. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    surprise ?
    thought it was always on
    [​IMG]
     
  25. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Well, surprise as in packing more punch than originally thought.....
     
  26. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    Jane says anywhere between another 13cm to 34cm by the weekend.
     
  27. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm not convinced.
    Could do anything.
     
  28. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    This will disappoint IMO. Pressure is already high and rises as it crosses the mainland. When it arcs up again on the east coast it will have missed the mountains.
     
  29. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Going off AXS-R I still see excess of 50cm from now until friday night
    easy.
    First the front will cross across Victoria and continue on.
    A cold pool will spin up its peripheral.
    This cold pool is bloody cold
    -6 to -8 at 850hpa
    500hpas of -34 to -36
    Selwyn will do very well.
    Cold pool seems to spin up quite a nice upper level low.
    MSLP doesn't show this that well.
    snow in strange spots overnight wednesday into thursday.
    Snow from the Nor Norwest..
    then the ECL injects some SE snow later on.
     
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  30. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    i think I will have a interesting drive down early thursday
    AXS-R has the bullseye on the Monaro /ACT and a freezing level of 900-1000.
     
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  31. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Maybe 10 in Vic if lucky imo.
     
  32. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    10cm in Orbost probs.
     
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    More "Antarctic Vortex"

    http://t.co/K5xXbl7xWP

    WEATHER conditions are set to deteriorate from later today as Australia’s deep freeze continues.

    A strong cold front is due to arrive tonight, bringing snow down to low levels in Victoria, Tasmania, the ACT and New South Wales.

    South Australia will cop the first effects of the latest storm, with showers increasing during the day, with possible hail across the state tonight and tomorrow morning.

    Victorians can expect snow to develop overnight and tomorrow with falls likely in the Grampians and some Melbourne suburbs above 700 metres.

    Sunday was Melbourne’s wettest July day since 1990, with 28.4mm of rain in the city and falls of more than 20mm across the suburbs, with 100 calls to the State Emergency Service for help as the rain tumbled.

    The vigorous air mass will sweep through much of NSW by Thursday with snow forecast to dump once again in areas still trying to defrost from last weekend’s white-out.

    Towns likely to see snow again include Orange, Armidale, Glen Innes and Lithgow.

    Snowfalls along the Great Dividing Range had eased by late yesterday, but the New England Highway was closed for a time between Glen Innes and Bendemeer because of snowy conditions.
     
  34. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yeah looks that way.
    This looks colder IMO
    Though not as well placed.

    Check the wind direction on each level.
    Tells the story how the low is stacked.
     
  35. skee

    skee Hard Yards

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    How's this next front looking for Northern NSW? I'll be down in Guyra Wednesday and Thursday for work, bom are predicting snow showers.
     
  36. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

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    "Deep freeze", talk about media hype, and "Antartic vortex"... nothing like a bit of drama to boost the advertising dollars... even the ABC runs with it...
     
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  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks like EC has upgraded expectations for today into tomorrow. IMO
    Could see a sneaky 10-20cm in places.
     
  38. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Ideal for
    prepare for road closures.
     
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  39. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Looking at sat pic/radar ...you would think so
     
  40. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm frothing :)
     
  41. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Love it. But all looks too far north for mine.
     
  42. Martyr

    Martyr Hard Yards

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    Bom 4 dayer. My complete amatuer prediction: Snow from midnight Tuesday through to noon Friday with a bluebird weekend.

    [​IMG]
     
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  43. Dan-J

    Dan-J First Runs

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    looking good for Thredbo this weekend!
     
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  44. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    High pressure says.....Hi.
    Stationary windless system say hi.
    Totals? Buggered if I would try and guess.
     
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  45. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's out early
     
  46. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Agree, it looks all a tad to North for anything super significant.
    Still think 10-20 is on the cards though.
    Temps no issue, just the moisture wont be in the right place. IMO
     
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  47. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    was just thinking this
     
  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks like a "slow accumulator". Actually this system has been like that. 7 & 10cm per day doesn't sound much, but do it over 7 days and it's a nice result.
     
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  49. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    10cm...
     
  50. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    for where?