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Predictions July 11-16th #Snownami

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Jul 3, 2015.

  1. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Slow accumulators are fine in June and July especially as there was no base at all this time last week. Although the Main Range looks good from the Cams at 15 to 30 cm per day. Frothing to get up there when it CLEARS.

    I wonder about later tonight? Thredbo AWS is -5 now and this looks prefrontal. Will it make the ALPS.

    Wonder if Access R will update the prognosis in the next wee bit.



    [​IMG]
     
  2. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Thredbo. Merrits restaurant ish
     
  3. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    oh man... they should get 10-20 tonight alone easy.
    let alone over next few days.
    sou east snow is Thredbo bread and butter.
     
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  4. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Hoping I'm wrong
     
  5. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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  6. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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  7. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Sat pic or model ?
     
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  8. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Steady Supply Orographic Snow over 24hrs definitely means 20 CM IMO. Than more after that.

    I am looking for a CLEAR window now.

    Might hit it up Saturday for a night or two (Back Country Tribe where are you)

    DURATION
     
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  9. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

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    Latest AXS and GFS looking consistently sexy for some reasonable falls Wednesday and Thursday. Possibly 15-20 cm both days.
     
  10. Neslot

    Neslot One of Us

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    IMO 35cm between now and Friday arvo for Thredbo / Perisher
     
  11. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    sat pic and modelS
     
  12. gettingtooold

    gettingtooold One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Interesting looking at the BOM forecasting E/NE wind for Hotham and Falls tomorrow. In 2000 heavy falls happened after a similar pattern went over the alps in NSW, produced nothing in Vic but the tail had a massive sting after passing and picking up cold air from the wrong direction and seriously dumped. (Only time I've seen it happen from that direction)
     
    #862 gettingtooold, Jul 14, 2015
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2015
  13. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Axs.r . Wow for the south coast.
     
  14. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Robertson... mossvale might be a chance... BMs very good
     
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  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Melbourne forecast for tomorrow

    4 - 11C

    Melbourne area
    Partly cloudy. Areas of morning frost in the northwest suburbs. Medium (60%) chance of showers, most likely in the late morning and afternoon. Snow possible above 700 metres. Possible hail in the morning and afternoon. Light winds.
     
  16. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    snow on Pidgeon House
     
  17. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

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    There's a good shute at the back of Pigeon House, rode it in 2000...
     
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  18. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

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    Friday is now also looking sexy...
     
  19. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

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    More thundersnow forecast for NSW Wednesday. The new meteorological phenomenon.
     
  20. melty68

    melty68 One of Us

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    At the pub after work at cronulla sydney ..we recken over 200cms by early august at thredbo pb and guthega.
     
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  21. Angus_McCrory

    Angus_McCrory Old n' Crusty

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    I recall a bloody cold night spent out at Mt Tarn in the Budawangs back in the early 1980's, got a nice little dusting of white.
     
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  22. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sassafras on the Nerriga Road got a dump on Sunday nite. Was plenty left on Monday around 1pm when we drove through with lots of snow play happening along the road. The last snow I saw at Sassafras was in mid Sept 2012 when all those wandering cold pools were doing crazy stuff.

    If Robertson gets a brush it might be visible on the escarpment tomorrow morning from Dapto.

    Does Saddleback Mt at Kiama ever get a dusting?
     
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  23. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    So ridiculous :)
     
  24. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I love thundersnow.
     
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  25. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

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    Not sure abt Saddlebk, probably wld; do recall Bulli tops receiving snow one year long ago, not sure which year.
     
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  26. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Axs-r looking much sexier tonight. Love it. :woohoo:

    Looks to be dropping more moisture on NSW Resorts though. IMO. Sorry Vicco's. :(

    [​IMG]
     
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  27. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear Addicted

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    Antarctic thunder snow vortex , we are all gonna die :evil::evil::evil:
     
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  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
  29. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear Addicted

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    Apologies :thumbs:
     
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  30. priderock

    priderock Hard Yards

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    Sorry you are in trouble with CC .. Baw Baw Bear but at least we can predict more snow for Baw Baw over the next few hours :woohoo:
     
  31. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    ABC News saying maybe 20 cm for NSW CT's tommorow night / Thursday.
     
  32. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    W
    Wow.
     
  33. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    No shock when you look at axs-r
    tramtrack moisture into a 900 metre freezing level
    D's drive early thursday is looking , um interesting
     
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  34. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    You can draw a line from the gong to the blue mountains.
    If moisture comes over the gong, and the soundings are say sub 24 26 ish and -2 at 850... BMs will get wet snow

    its a classic sou sou east weather system
     
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  35. bullet

    bullet One of Us

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    Ive been up Saddleback when it's been sleeting.
     
  36. BobGnarly

    BobGnarly One of Us

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    I grew up in Kiama and never heard of snow on saddleback
     
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  37. Ralph_implement

    Ralph_implement A Local

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    It's too low I would have thought.
     
  38. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Its just shy of 700 metres.
    Height would be no worries.
    Just the type of weather system.
    I've seen snow down that low on Mac pass.
     
  39. Ralph_implement

    Ralph_implement A Local

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    Never knew it was that high! Was guessing about 400.....wroooong!
     
  40. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tho this will do if it holds.

     
  41. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    edit : Sorry Claude if this should be in Predictions too !

    So follow the same track we observed it push up from out of the South West.
    Synoptics show it drifting east , it does separate on the charts.
    Be interested to hear your theory but I guess over to Predictions for that.
     
  42. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    yeah , I think whats rotating the moisture right now is a upper level system. with super cold cold pool..
    whereas , the low that forms off the coast of NSW looks to come from a trough - separate to the cold pool
     
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  43. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    You can see it on the 27 hour 500hpa AXS-R chart.
    There are two lows...
     
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  44. Martyr

    Martyr Hard Yards

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    Todays BOM 4 dayer

    [​IMG]
     
  45. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep , got it.
    The realtively warm water triggers would make sense.
     
  46. cloudbase

    cloudbase Hard Yards

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    Donza reckon that low deliver any rain to the NSW resorts?
     
  47. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    no rain, snow level of 1000
     
  48. notty

    notty Addicted

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    PV gauge must be frozen, snowing most of the afternoon and it is stuck on 0.8mm
     
  49. carvin

    carvin Hard Yards

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    That's an obs. not a prediction, but I don't think it is frozen. IMO, a couple of brief showers, but mostly so light hardly registering. People have been saying that every day this week, but it has been on the money each day. Unfortunately, as much as we will it otherwise, the dumps just haven't been setting in for prolonged periods the last few days.
     
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  50. melty68

    melty68 One of Us

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    I dont think rain is a danger..pretty cold....should end up a good season.