Slow accumulators are fine in June and July especially as there was no base at all this time last week. Although the Main Range looks good from the Cams at 15 to 30 cm per day. Frothing to get up there when it CLEARS. I wonder about later tonight? Thredbo AWS is -5 now and this looks prefrontal. Will it make the ALPS. Wonder if Access R will update the prognosis in the next wee bit.
oh man... they should get 10-20 tonight alone easy. let alone over next few days. sou east snow is Thredbo bread and butter.
Steady Supply Orographic Snow over 24hrs definitely means 20 CM IMO. Than more after that. I am looking for a CLEAR window now. Might hit it up Saturday for a night or two (Back Country Tribe where are you) DURATION
Latest AXS and GFS looking consistently sexy for some reasonable falls Wednesday and Thursday. Possibly 15-20 cm both days.
Interesting looking at the BOM forecasting E/NE wind for Hotham and Falls tomorrow. In 2000 heavy falls happened after a similar pattern went over the alps in NSW, produced nothing in Vic but the tail had a massive sting after passing and picking up cold air from the wrong direction and seriously dumped. (Only time I've seen it happen from that direction)
Melbourne forecast for tomorrow 4 - 11C Melbourne area Partly cloudy. Areas of morning frost in the northwest suburbs. Medium (60%) chance of showers, most likely in the late morning and afternoon. Snow possible above 700 metres. Possible hail in the morning and afternoon. Light winds.
At the pub after work at cronulla sydney ..we recken over 200cms by early august at thredbo pb and guthega.
I recall a bloody cold night spent out at Mt Tarn in the Budawangs back in the early 1980's, got a nice little dusting of white.
Sassafras on the Nerriga Road got a dump on Sunday nite. Was plenty left on Monday around 1pm when we drove through with lots of snow play happening along the road. The last snow I saw at Sassafras was in mid Sept 2012 when all those wandering cold pools were doing crazy stuff. If Robertson gets a brush it might be visible on the escarpment tomorrow morning from Dapto. Does Saddleback Mt at Kiama ever get a dusting?
Not sure abt Saddlebk, probably wld; do recall Bulli tops receiving snow one year long ago, not sure which year.
Axs-r looking much sexier tonight. Love it. Looks to be dropping more moisture on NSW Resorts though. IMO. Sorry Vicco's.
Sorry you are in trouble with CC .. Baw Baw Bear but at least we can predict more snow for Baw Baw over the next few hours
No shock when you look at axs-r tramtrack moisture into a 900 metre freezing level D's drive early thursday is looking , um interesting
You can draw a line from the gong to the blue mountains. If moisture comes over the gong, and the soundings are say sub 24 26 ish and -2 at 850... BMs will get wet snow its a classic sou sou east weather system
Its just shy of 700 metres. Height would be no worries. Just the type of weather system. I've seen snow down that low on Mac pass.
edit : Sorry Claude if this should be in Predictions too ! So follow the same track we observed it push up from out of the South West. Synoptics show it drifting east , it does separate on the charts. Be interested to hear your theory but I guess over to Predictions for that.
yeah , I think whats rotating the moisture right now is a upper level system. with super cold cold pool.. whereas , the low that forms off the coast of NSW looks to come from a trough - separate to the cold pool
That's an obs. not a prediction, but I don't think it is frozen. IMO, a couple of brief showers, but mostly so light hardly registering. People have been saying that every day this week, but it has been on the money each day. Unfortunately, as much as we will it otherwise, the dumps just haven't been setting in for prolonged periods the last few days.
