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Predictions July 14th-18th

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jul 7, 2017.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    A period of interest.
    EC and GFS have been keen on this for a while, although the last run EC has gone off it a bit.

    [​IMG]

    GFS really loves it
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Even the Canuks are getting interested

    [​IMG]

    I still have only low to moderate confidence in this.
     
    Kletterer likes this.
  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  3. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perhaps some room to move in regards to upgrades/downgrades IMO
     
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  4. soda

    soda Addicted

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    Fingers very tightly crossed, my one trip booked this year 14-17th.
     
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  5. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

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    Claude, when is the weather south of Perth due in oz.?
     
  6. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    What do you mean?
     
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I think he means when is that system below WA due over the Alps.
    GFS say the 17th, other models have it slipping south.
    IMO
     
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  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Still lots of variations in the models.
     
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  9. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Door number 2 please...
     
  10. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Nice, just needs more moisture
     
  11. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Not much love on GFS though.

    [​IMG]
     
  12. Sno Sno SNO

    Sno Sno SNO Hard Yards

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    It looks like there'll be something, which is better than nothing...
     
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  13. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Looks a bit better this morning
     
  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]

    GFS still not keen.
     
  15. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

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    Yes guys, sorry thought that was a simple question, sorry if it was too simple for the intelligent folk in here. I assume that's the 14th > weather.
     
  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Oh yeah. IMO

    [​IMG]
     
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  17. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Highs not retreating to normal winter latitudes as forecast by many due to lack of any decent climate drivers IMO I hope this is NOT the story of the season....It's almost as if the models want to give the systems a chance of rearing up, but inevitably know the low positioning of lengthy highs will dominate and diminish. Hope, downgrade, repeat. Note the lack of any decent upper level troughs to break the chain of high pressure ridges. IMO Dagnamit.....
     
  18. Sno Sno SNO

    Sno Sno SNO Hard Yards

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    17th most promising of this date range, but the next system about 19th maybe even better
     
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I'm seeing little on the 17th, the 14th-15th looks mighty good to me though.
     
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  20. Sno Sno SNO

    Sno Sno SNO Hard Yards

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    I know not all weather comes via Adelaide, but 17 degrees and 50% chance of rain in Adelaide on 13th (and nothing better on 14th) doesn't fill me with confidence at all....
     
  21. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm with you there.
    2 other yes and a maybe..
    *120Hrs


     
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  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS starting to come to the party.

    [​IMG]
     
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  23. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Jane's forecast is expletive laden
     
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  24. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    Its Looking pretty good on the Global Forecast Synoptic (GFS).
     
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  25. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    ECMWF

    [​IMG]
     
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  26. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Access G going for a lot of pre-frontal rain. Em No thanks Access G.
     
  27. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    meh, pre-frontal rain is always an option in Aus. Net gain.
     
  28. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pressures are meh.
     
  29. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It always gets worse before it gets better. IMO.
     
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  30. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    lets just say we are not going to have Lake Perisher form again next week like last year lol
     
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  31. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I agree. But at least it should accumulate.

    [​IMG]
     
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  32. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    GFS 00z Monday has a big upgrade for the 14-18th systems. Large, complex and with fetch from the deap south.
     
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  33. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Yep. Look at those forecast 700 HPa temps :)
     
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  34. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    CMC 00z monday, is much aligned with GFS, though with more prefrontal. The Vibe is strong imo.
     
    #34 1st_King_of_QBN, Jul 10, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 10, 2017
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  35. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hope not! But there were 3 consecutive nights of solid snowfall post that rain event and some great side country skiing!!
     
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS sequence is pretty damn good IMO

     
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC doesn't have the follow-up on the 17th though.
     
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    CMC is good too IMO

     
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Even AXS is on board IMO


    IMO this is the first system that all models almost universally agree this season.
     
  40. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Now that looks like a season starter IMO
     
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  41. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    If CC is bullish then its on big time :thumbs:
     
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  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I'm coming around to the idea.
     
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  43. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    14th and 17th . 17th might be ok. Some good strong flags folding over with potentialy a Northwest approach and reasonable vorticity. Entropic wise seems ok IMO. Things may change of course.
     
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  44. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Canadians think it will snow .
     
  45. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Models holding this morning, 14th looks dialed in IMO.
     
  46. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    spag looking stronger for the 17th also, less clip more hit. Waiting for an upgrade...
     
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  47. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    SPAG is brewing up some goodness for beyond the 14th as well :) agree 17th looks even stronger.

    [​IMG]
     
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  48. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

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    Nice when they all line up, good coverage all around would be nice
     
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  49. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    2



    Foot



    Storm
     
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  50. Adamski

    Adamski Hard Yards

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    What is going on? Jane is predicting ovwr two feet in the next 8 days but BOM and grasshopper showing scattered flurries with about 15cm on Friday.