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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Claude Cat, Jul 7, 2017.
My concerns exactly.
I do read the predictions thread, bro! However, the actual weather up to now has been a let down compared to that predicted. Hence my pessimism.
Sounds like a lot of people sucked on the 1.7m ye/naaaaah sauce bottle for this event.
These cut off systems are extremely hard to predict and given the way systems have played out so far, people have been VERY bullish this time around for both reasons stated and that my friend has been a very wise decision IMO
We seem to be missing the fact that it did snow last night up high. Khancoban says around 7mm overnight so 10cm up high is probably what fell - just not showing lower down. Not a good result below about 1900m but the smoother and more filled in it gets up high to more will blow in when it gets colder today.
Seems to be snowing steadily at Merrits now and temp is -2 at top of Thredbo. So from here on we are looking good. No huge blobs of cloud on the sat pic but being a cutoff we will get some recirculated moisture.
A wise decision to be bullish when these systems are extremely hard to predict? I'm not sure I understand your reply? I would have thought erring on the side of caution would be smarter if the forecast is hard to make.
Definitely - but much less sexy than calling for 50cm+.
Don't let numbers get you down. There is a base and there is fresh snow falling. If you want to ski fresh snow jump in the car now and get down there. You will forget about numbers once you are skiing fresh snow, whether its 10cm or 20cm or 30cm. And once its 20cm or more it all feels the same here anyway. I know where i'd be if i didn't have any commitments today.
Looking at earth.null - you can see the cold air is simply not there. It should start to reach NSW resorts later this afternoon.
This is the future in realtime evidence. The positive PDO (warm) phase we are now in for the next 10+ years will only further underscore the marginal nature of winter in Australia going forward.
Both this and the previous cutoff formed south of WA and at no point were either centred over Kalgoorlie where the wet dog usually forms. Morover this and the previous cutoff formed over lower than normal SST. This should be a solid event - and while it might yet deliver it sure ain't exciting at this point.
Fake news, alternate facts!
IMO models have struggled more in the last 2-3 years, than in the 4-5 before that. But compared to information available when I was young....predicting is that, still. So complaining that things dont go as predicted is an oxy?
Don't listen to the hype.
Has looked like a foot/30 ish cm event for 4 days imo.
Wind still wnw in Adelaide gives an idea of current state of event.
The 'hook' hasnt been predicted to be optimal for massive falls for days. Still. It should deliver a good fall. The best of the season so far.
IMO - it's more than that. the airflows. precips are all there pretty much on the money in the forecasts. it's the temps that are the problem. especially the uppers.
but PV BOM just went neg for the first time since yesterday arvo - so it all might turn on a dime yet ...
Looking good for this evening IMO, but not huge falls. 40cm+ falls were never going to happen this year given the current SST situation. There could be sting in the tail on Thursday.
You have to remember that for every bloke going on about 50cents or 2 feet out of this system, there were at least double that who were less bullish. But you look past those 'minimal' predictions when you read through the thread, cos you're biased and looking for the big numbers. That's why we remember yeahnah going for 1.7m.
You really cant make that prediction based on 2 systems and expect to be taken seriously.
Sometimes more information is worse. The dissection of models by some people is crazy, you're thinking too much and too hard about it, and it's not a concrete science in the first place.
I'd still be very surprised if the Spencers Creek depth does not increase by 50cm or more by the end of this week.
Stay on topic.
Confirmation bias. We unconsciously prioritise the information we consume that conforms to our beliefs, or in this case that we want to happen.
Nobody is stopping scrolling to read someone predicting 10-15cm, but put down 50cms and all of a sudden the eyeballs light up.
Or glaze over
Aspects and wind affect a lot of these falls. Now 50 cm at the bottom of Thredbo is a seriously good dump but not going to happen today. Maybe 10 cm. But the base at Spencers will go up 50 cm due to wind load.
But these winds will cause any snow on exposed SE aspects on the main range to be blown away on Thursday.
***by away you mean leeward of said areas
BOM 4 day out already - looks 'unstable' in the SE and bombing out towards NZ - IMO
Not really bombing, needs to drop 24hPa in 24 hours, only gets half that.
It's also based on what happened last year. It's an observation of what is happening with back to back marginal seasons where there were a lot of rain events and only a limited amount of good snow falls. The warm PDO phase is not going to be working in our favour anytime soon. The rest of this season will be very interesting to watch play out. It's the middle of July - the coldest part of the year and we are seeing a lot of warm temps and marginal results. There has not been a single low level snow event in surrounding Jindy region this season. Anyway best to continue this in either the BBQ or the season 2017 thread.
Thank fark for that. Usually those sloppy SE ECL jobby's.
Good chance on thursday when this one goes southerly.
Obviously I am trying to secure first tracks on a number on prominent peaks if I can get my fat butt up there.
Hmm the western faces love these sloppy ECL's, just saying.
How low is the snow lowering overnight? And can we expect much more snow for Vic resorts, esp. Buller?
Anyone care to guess whether there will be snow up to bullocks flat? Am wondering which car to take for the morning.
AXS still looking at 30 ish...
NSW legacy of the Westerly and slow tracking of the system for now.
And for Victoria?
15-20 , it's on the same image , see the light green.
Small yellow section around Hoth/Falls.
Another 20cm from this would be a great result.
click thru the drop down box or arrows forardw back on RHS above date/time stamp.
also a drop down for what you want to view i.e precip , 850 's 500's etc
Stirling will be sweet tmrw mate. They reported 50cm base up top, there'll be double that in the bowl.
Bluff Spur cam is green light.
yes AXS seems to have it pushing thru a lot quicker than it's been moving today which I am unsure.
Others here with more knowledge may have an explanation.
I was thinking Vic will get the goodies later on when wind goes further around to the S.
Buller/Stirling will, do okay from both NW and SW. Bawbs mostly SW . Hoth/Falls are basically NW/W mountains only.
Wow based on that, we could get some love here in Blackheath. A passing shower perhaps? #prayfordusting
That sounds great. I was wondering whether there will be skiable snow from TBJ, i.e. how far will I have to walk?
No idea about that. My guess would be you'd be able to skin from TBJ, if the flurries down there today are anything to go by.
... better be chains or I want my money back ... with any luck it'll be 2 days of chains to bullocks - though rare to see them needed after 8-9am - unless it's falling out of the sky. Can sometimes need chains after 5ish pm if it's snowing heavily down low.
BOM has SW hitting Vicco tomorrow morning. Will there still be any moisture left?
*for some areas
the usual areas that fair okay in a SW. which is the usual caveat on any of these things.
Yup. We need to spell it out in these social media days of instant gratification
Stay on topic