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Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Jul 7, 2017.
I predict an event name coming?
Please god no
17/18th so far is looking like snow at Tenterfield, the far Northern Tablelands. Thoughts?
Yep me tooooooo - arriving Sunday
As it is on the 14th or thereafter, I deem that this system shall be named "JUILLET".
Stay on topic.
Serious snowage on the way. Latest GFS is a hoot!
It is...Bastille Day is the 14th.
The 17th looks like it could be the business:
It's at around 9 oclock, the one on the 14th-15th is at 11 and it looks good too, although the 17th is what will get the place covered if it comes off.
Friday's system. Heights look okay.
Monday's system. Heights look better.
Thursday week's system (technically not covered by this thread, but... no thread). Heights looking very deep.
10 day snowcast with all three systems included. That's 1m+ for Falls/Hotham and the Main Range area (Perisher/Thredbo). You don't get that forecast often on EC . Looking awesome.
<sidenote> Long Range details can change. So might not be 1 metre falling... but still an awesome forecast </sidenote>
We are defnitely in the major snow system period, with most coming in mid July to mid August .
No more doom and gloom, season is on!
So hope that the forecast holds. A long time follower of these forums and I can't recall a season where the models (and predictions based on these) have varied so much inside the last 4 days of each system arriving. We are still seeing massive variance inside 48 hours.
So still not locked in, but it is a great forecast to starting from.
Proper season starter IMO if it holds.
I predict that I will be at Thredbo on the 17th for a week. Woo hoo!
I observe that I am coming down with a cold. D'oh!
17th upgraded this morning. Direct hit.
Downgrade for the 14th, upgrade for the 17th, IMO.
Others are more qualified than me to comment on wind speeds/directions, etc (and I don't know the Victorian resorts) but as a parent with children who sometimes ventures out in blizzards my advice is find a sheltered spot on the mountain and ... the T bar is your friend! Just expect it to be very windy ...
What you'll find is with the 14th, it may look like a slight downgrade but that should not matter as it's this front that will help to allow the 17th system through, as the front on the 14th will help breakdown the high pressure and allow the system on the 17th to slide up / through for a direct hit.
Pretty sure the above is what Jane will likely come out and say in her forecast today / tomorrow but let's just see....!
Generally, if you get snow in Aus you get wind along with it. That being said, models suggest this system doesn't look too bad IMO. Friday and Sunday night being the worst. Not sure what sort of winds it takes to shut down lifts at Buller. At any rate, it's likely to be wet rather than snowy for most of Friday which I can't imagine would be all that enjoyable for the tinlids.
yep. 14th was never the money shot.
The ol' saying around Jindabyne: "If it doesn't blow, it doesn't snow"
The 14th is definitely in the right "spot" in the bight IMO.... Not peaking too early as per past month. Pre front troughy moisture might surprise if the temps go negative early enough. IMO It aint OZ if it aint marginal some of the time
Jane's updated forecast.
Very bullish on totals for Monday's system...
Might need a ski day Tuesday or Wednesday. It looks like snowing without horrid winds, IMO.
I observe that I am thinking similar thoughts.
I'm hittin' Buller me thinks...white out blizzards, percfect! lol
I think you'll find we'll see a slight downgrade on the 00UTC runs to come later today and yesterday's 4 day, whilst looking good hinted at some potential for 'sliding effect' given the high behind it appears to increase slightly in strength over this period.
Still all good, positive signs that things are changing for the better and IMO I think we'll see this 17th system deliver the goods
All about that 17th life. Anything from the 14th is bonus IMO.
Not too much of a downgrade at this stage IMO - still looks pretty good:
Spag likes 14th-15th. And 17th-18th.
Just as a side note. Check the cutoff over NZ nth island on the 13th.
Stay on topic
EC is teasing us with a slight upgrade. However, is showing more likelihood of pre-frontal, IMO.
This gives pretty clear look at it.
Friday / Saturday fetching straight off the polar cap.
See how the pressure is when it gets to the Alps.
Nice bit of space between the big Highs and Monday system(s) is clear of Sth Africa.
Several more still in the nursery East of Sth Am.
more on those in a week or so when we see what happens with the associated highs. for another thread
GFS 00z is in. 14th is slip sliding away.. but the 17th......
Wandering cold pool filled with moisture and nothing to shove it off to the east. Giggidty.
Nice to finish work and see posts like above. Better check whats happening.
Cold is slipping away, but moisture isn't. It's a worst case, IMO.
Up to 35mm of rain is hardly diabolical, especially **if** the follow delivers as progged....
BOM don't seem much interested in anything cold.
Cold dry Jet getting kicked solidly Northwards. Has beefyness to it.
Big time moisture feed and convergence
As noted above, massive downgrade on the Friday system. 5-10cm on EC and GFS. More rain than snow unfortunately. Just doesn't have the cold uppers we want. I will post about next system when EC updates.
EC is sticking with ~60cm for the Monday-Wednesday period (and that is with the previous system taken off).
The pressure anomaly is much better than the previous system.
The heights are further north than the previous system.
I just like the setup on the 17-19 July system better than the 14-15 July system. Much colder...
I wouldn't suggest going on Friday, unless you like skiing in rain, or you are in the upper reaches of Perisher or Thredbo.
Plenty of Vertical Velocity. as she hits topography
- Much like
So what you guys are saying is it's only gonna rain on Friday? Bloody hell!