Predictions July 14th-18th

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Jul 7, 2017.

  1. Kappy

    Kappy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2010
    Messages:
    244
    Likes Received:
    315
    I predict an event name coming?
     
  2. Wardy

    Wardy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 7, 2010
    Messages:
    958
    Likes Received:
    354
    Please god no
     
  3. cloudbase

    cloudbase Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2014
    Messages:
    22
    Likes Received:
    5
    17/18th so far is looking like snow at Tenterfield, the far Northern Tablelands. Thoughts?
     
  4. Tweekin

    Tweekin Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 29, 2016
    Messages:
    60
    Likes Received:
    178
    Yep me tooooooo - arriving Sunday
     
  5. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2011
    Messages:
    3,174
    Likes Received:
    1,683
    As it is on the 14th or thereafter, I deem that this system shall be named "JUILLET". :woohoo:
    LIBERTYYYYYYyyyyyyy
    [​IMG]
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    92,056
    Likes Received:
    28,723
    Stay on topic.
     
    The Plowking likes this.
  7. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2013
    Messages:
    322
    Likes Received:
    387
    Serious snowage on the way. Latest GFS is a hoot!
    imo
     
    FourSquare04 and DidSurfNowSki like this.
  8. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2011
    Messages:
    3,174
    Likes Received:
    1,683
    It is...Bastille Day is the 14th. :p
     
    Wardy likes this.
  9. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    64,503
    Likes Received:
    17,336
    The 17th looks like it could be the business:
    [​IMG]

    It's at around 9 oclock, the one on the 14th-15th is at 11 and it looks good too, although the 17th is what will get the place covered if it comes off.
     
    Wardy, nfip, mick chopps and 3 others like this.
  10. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    3,544
    Likes Received:
    2,705

    Friday's system. Heights look okay.

    Monday's system. Heights look better.

    Thursday week's system (technically not covered by this thread, but... no thread). Heights looking very deep.

    10 day snowcast with all three systems included. That's 1m+ for Falls/Hotham and the Main Range area (Perisher/Thredbo). You don't get that forecast often on EC :D. Looking awesome.

    <sidenote> Long Range details can change. So might not be 1 metre falling... but still an awesome forecast </sidenote>

    We are defnitely in the major snow system period, with most coming in mid July to mid August :thumbs:.
    No more doom and gloom, season is on!
     
  11. skimax

    skimax Old And Crusty
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2000
    Messages:
    30,081
    Likes Received:
    3,010
    Pleasegodnomaggeddon
     
  12. JeremyG

    JeremyG Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2015
    Messages:
    19
    Likes Received:
    51
    So hope that the forecast holds. A long time follower of these forums and I can't recall a season where the models (and predictions based on these) have varied so much inside the last 4 days of each system arriving. We are still seeing massive variance inside 48 hours.

    So still not locked in, but it is a great forecast to starting from.
     
    FourSquare04 and Mctavish like this.
  13. SnowBound

    SnowBound Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2007
    Messages:
    1,095
    Likes Received:
    832
    Proper season starter IMO if it holds.
     
    FourSquare04 and Mctavish like this.
  14. iagreewithhim

    iagreewithhim Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Sep 3, 2001
    Messages:
    629
    Likes Received:
    504
    I predict that I will be at Thredbo on the 17th for a week. Woo hoo!
    I observe that I am coming down with a cold. D'oh!
     
  15. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    50,387
    Likes Received:
    27,188
    17th upgraded this morning. Direct hit.
     
  16. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2014
    Messages:
    4,195
    Likes Received:
    5,406
    Downgrade for the 14th, upgrade for the 17th, IMO.
     
  17. Snowcone

    Snowcone Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 15, 2013
    Messages:
    44
    Likes Received:
    27
    "Snown d'Arc"?
     
  18. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    50,387
    Likes Received:
    27,188
    marginally. IMO
     
  19. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Silver

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2014
    Messages:
    827
    Likes Received:
    1,522
    Others are more qualified than me to comment on wind speeds/directions, etc (and I don't know the Victorian resorts) but as a parent with children who sometimes ventures out in blizzards my advice is find a sheltered spot on the mountain and ... the T bar is your friend! Just expect it to be very windy ...
     
    blueandwhite likes this.
  20. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    4,628
    Likes Received:
    1,754
    What you'll find is with the 14th, it may look like a slight downgrade but that should not matter as it's this front that will help to allow the 17th system through, as the front on the 14th will help breakdown the high pressure and allow the system on the 17th to slide up / through for a direct hit.

    Pretty sure the above is what Jane will likely come out and say in her forecast today / tomorrow but let's just see....! :D
     
  21. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    50,387
    Likes Received:
    27,188
    Generally, if you get snow in Aus you get wind along with it. That being said, models suggest this system doesn't look too bad IMO. Friday and Sunday night being the worst. Not sure what sort of winds it takes to shut down lifts at Buller. At any rate, it's likely to be wet rather than snowy for most of Friday which I can't imagine would be all that enjoyable for the tinlids.
     
    #121 mick chopps, Jul 12, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2017
  22. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    50,387
    Likes Received:
    27,188
    yep. 14th was never the money shot.
     
  23. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    4,628
    Likes Received:
    1,754
    The ol' saying around Jindabyne: "If it doesn't blow, it doesn't snow" :D
     
    zac150, W0nkey D0nkey, alexd and 6 others like this.
  24. snowblowa

    snowblowa Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2010
    Messages:
    877
    Likes Received:
    754
    The 14th is definitely in the right "spot" in the bight IMO.... Not peaking too early as per past month. Pre front troughy moisture might surprise if the temps go negative early enough. IMO It aint OZ if it aint marginal some of the time LOL
     
    FourSquare04 likes this.
  25. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    50,387
    Likes Received:
    27,188
    Jane's updated forecast.
    Very bullish on totals for Monday's system...
     
  26. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2014
    Messages:
    4,195
    Likes Received:
    5,406
    Might need a ski day Tuesday or Wednesday. It looks like snowing without horrid winds, IMO.
     
  27. CarveMan

    CarveMan aussieskier.com
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 12, 2000
    Messages:
    66,946
    Likes Received:
    21,950
    I observe that I am thinking similar thoughts.
     
  28. snowblowa

    snowblowa Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2010
    Messages:
    877
    Likes Received:
    754
    I'm hittin' Buller me thinks...white out blizzards, percfect! lol
     
    Jellybeans1000 likes this.
  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    92,056
    Likes Received:
    28,723
    Stay on topic.
     
    snowblowa likes this.
  30. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    4,628
    Likes Received:
    1,754
    I think you'll find we'll see a slight downgrade on the 00UTC runs to come later today and yesterday's 4 day, whilst looking good hinted at some potential for 'sliding effect' given the high behind it appears to increase slightly in strength over this period.

    Still all good, positive signs that things are changing for the better and IMO I think we'll see this 17th system deliver the goods :)
     
    mick chopps and snowblowa like this.
  31. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    50,387
    Likes Received:
    27,188
    All about that 17th life. Anything from the 14th is bonus IMO.
     
    Snowy Joey and FourSquare04 like this.
  32. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    4,628
    Likes Received:
    1,754
    Not too much of a downgrade at this stage IMO - still looks pretty good:

    [​IMG]
     
  33. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    50,387
    Likes Received:
    27,188
  34. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2009
    Messages:
    14,487
    Likes Received:
    6,878
    Spag likes 14th-15th. And 17th-18th.

    Just as a side note. Check the cutoff over NZ nth island on the 13th.

     
    nfip, mick chopps, azzski and 3 others like this.
  35. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    10,931
    Likes Received:
    7,586
    Mmmmmm.
    Spag.
    Multiple fronts.
    Embedded troughs......
    [​IMG]
     
    FourSquare04 likes this.
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    92,056
    Likes Received:
    28,723
    Stay on topic
     
  37. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2014
    Messages:
    4,195
    Likes Received:
    5,406
    EC is teasing us with a slight upgrade. However, is showing more likelihood of pre-frontal, IMO.
     
  38. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    10,931
    Likes Received:
    7,586
    This gives pretty clear look at it.
    Friday / Saturday fetching straight off the polar cap.
    See how the pressure is when it gets to the Alps.
    Nice bit of space between the big Highs and Monday system(s) is clear of Sth Africa.
    Several more still in the nursery East of Sth Am.
    more on those in a week or so when we see what happens with the associated highs. for another thread
     
  39. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    50,387
    Likes Received:
    27,188
    GFS 00z is in. 14th is slip sliding away.. but the 17th......
     
    SAsurfa likes this.
  40. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2005
    Messages:
    1,071
    Likes Received:
    1,301
    Wandering cold pool filled with moisture and nothing to shove it off to the east. Giggidty.
     
  41. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    9,029
    Likes Received:
    7,379
    Nice to finish work and see posts like above. Better check whats happening.
     
  42. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2009
    Messages:
    14,487
    Likes Received:
    6,878
    Cold is slipping away, but moisture isn't. It's a worst case, IMO.


     
  43. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    50,387
    Likes Received:
    27,188
    Up to 35mm of rain is hardly diabolical, especially **if** the follow delivers as progged....
     
    Astro66 likes this.
  44. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2015
    Messages:
    539
    Likes Received:
    646
    BOM don't seem much interested in anything cold.
     
  45. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    9,029
    Likes Received:
    7,379
    Cold dry Jet getting kicked solidly Northwards. Has beefyness to it. Big time moisture feed and convergence
     
    IAB likes this.
  46. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    3,544
    Likes Received:
    2,705

    As noted above, massive downgrade on the Friday system. 5-10cm on EC and GFS. More rain than snow unfortunately. Just doesn't have the cold uppers we want. I will post about next system when EC updates.
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  47. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    9,029
    Likes Received:
    7,379
  48. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    3,544
    Likes Received:
    2,705

    EC is sticking with ~60cm for the Monday-Wednesday period (and that is with the previous system taken off).

    The pressure anomaly is much better than the previous system.

    The heights are further north than the previous system.

    I just like the setup on the 17-19 July system better than the 14-15 July system. Much colder...
    I wouldn't suggest going on Friday, unless you like skiing in rain, or you are in the upper reaches of Perisher or Thredbo.
     
    Froff Life, nfip, mick chopps and 3 others like this.
  49. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    9,029
    Likes Received:
    7,379
    Plenty of Vertical Velocity. as she hits topography - Much like
     
  50. newman

    newman Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 8, 2016
    Messages:
    85
    Likes Received:
    137
    So what you guys are saying is it's only gonna rain on Friday? Bloody hell!