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Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Jul 7, 2017.
Depends on where you are. NSW great, Falls/Hotham great, Buller okay, minor resorts not great.
Have a look at the charts for saturday 10am and next wednesday 10am and tell me which resort is not going to get heaps of snow? Charts about as solid as you can get.
Put it this way - if these scenarios evntuate and your chosen ski area does not have a significant net gain then i would abandon that ski area and head somewhere else.
Real weather observations, shit no, that would mean you would have to divert oneself from a screen.
If ever there was a case of a model that snowballed, it is it.
Yes/Naaaaaaaaaaah has lost over 1M of snow from last night to this morning for Perisher. Now 80cm. Comedy Central.
Latest GFS run (18z Wed) is a thing of beauty.
To the more learned punters; is the position of the low on the 19/20 tracking over bass strait cause for a lake effect multiplier in terms of totals? So often we talk about the Tassie Rain Shadow effect, but here we have a low tracking between the land masses, and then re-establishing to the NE of Tassie. I feels there are gonna be some places with big totals, and perhaps a factor that the models aren't picking up. Baw Baw could do exceedingly well
How come BOM are only going for small totals on this one (Thredbo)?
I'm not learned, but
no (lake effect)
Happy with 80cm, last nights yeah nah forecast would of been too much for our resorts to cope with.
I predict it will snow heaps and be bloody cold cos I am camping for the first time with 4 kids up at perisher for a week!!
Event into Friday/Saturday I can only see 5-10cm max for NSW, probably more 5cm, but next week, she's holding strong for anything from 40-60cm.
I'm with you Taipan, 60's and 70's snow report was to get out of bed and go ski and see for yourself. No internet, no t.v. coverage and a tiny little bit on in Thursdays sun. When you see the cold fronts on the 4 day map that's good. When they're not there that's bad. Bring it on.
Winds are up at Perisher. Mt P double already wind hold. First chairs loading on V8 whilst I enjoy coffee.
That front still has winds of 150km/h+ deep in the southern ocean. Just look at the sat pic, pick an obvious cloud bank that doesn't dissipate and see how far it drifts in an hour.
Thats a gale force front. Australia will get the top of it, so not as strong but it looks like a pretty big blizzard.
That also means a lot of snow blown off the main range into places like Thredbo on top of actual snow falls. Fairly normal for blizzards like this.
Still love seeing strong winter fronts for the aussie alps. Hope everybody's dreams come true over the next week or so.
Oh yeah, gonna be huge leeward accumulations. Some very very big wind drifts.
Season proper starter
The BOM are forecasting +1 for Buller on Tuesday. To me this looks a lot colder
A question for the best forecasters around:
I'm in hotham over the weekend, however I have the opportunity to go up Friday morning for an extra day. Will I encounter issues with windhold? I'm not too fussed about the rain aspect.
Sorry yes you are right Got those late night blues I have. Just saying that Buller and the minor resorts are going to get less than the other majors. But they should all easily have a net gain.
Always nice to see a high getting squeezed
Hotham generally fares okay-ish in the wind because a lot of the lifts go down into the valley and are sheltered. But Thursday night and into Friday do look pretty windy. I am definitely not one of the best forecasters around.
Similar Q for Thredbo, sleep in Fri or head from Canberra early? We're there for 4 days.
I'll take wind hold over rain any day!
Looking to be pretty windy actually. Isobars are looking to get squeezed just over the Australian alps. Snowing from after lunch tomorrow afternoon. Fronts can speed up or slow down of course. Thats what it looks like at 9.30am Thursday - ill look later tonight
Windy + snow = good thing
Windy + rain = no redeeming factors
Hotham fares the best out of the VIC resorts IMO, with Buller and Falls having more lifts up on top of the plain than Hotham, You'll usually lose Summit, Road Runner, and the Orchard Area when its open at Hotham... the rest usually fine. A lot dependant on direction of course
When HV shuts on wind hold, village loops and a little walk are my favourite Hotham days.
Stay on topic!!!
I still see 10 in this for Hotham.
AAO has headed in the right direction (at last!!). I have a good feeling about the coming week: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/new.aao_index_ensm.html
Snow accum figures based on EC, charts are EC.
Snow level figures are based on GFS, early=10am, late=10pm.
Friday snow accum:
NSW 1-5cm, 2000m early, 1400m late.
VIC 1-5cm, 1500m early, 1200m late.
Saturday snow accum:
NSW 1-3cm, 1000m early, 800m late.
VIC Dusting, 900m early, 1100m late.
Monday snow accum:
NSW 5cm, 2000m early, 1800m late.
VIC 2-5cm, 2000m early, 1700m late.
Tuesday snow accum:
NSW 20-30cm + wind loading, 1400m early, 1100m late
VIC 20-25cm + wind loading, 1300m early, 1100m late
Wednesday snow accum:
NSW 15-20cm + wind loading, 1300m early, 1500m late.
VIC 5cm + minor wind loading, 1400m early, 1300m late.
Thursday snow accum:
NSW Dusting, 1200m early, 1400m late
VIC 2-5cm, 1000m early, 1700m late
Totals for this system:
Good breakdown Jelly
Bom giving upper total of 17cm (mm) for Mon-Wed (Thredbo)?
I believe it when I see it. Every model so far and peoples predictions have been way out of whack. I'm no weather predicter, but everyone seems to talk it up on these systems that have and coming through will dump a substantial amount of snow which so far we have seen has only accumulated 30cm max of natural snow since the season started.
If you only believed it when you see it you wouldnt bother going into a predictions thread, much less actually posting in one.
Stay on topic.
Its all starting to look very promising to me.
Only concern I have is temps spoiling the party.
I wouldn't be surprised if some of the totals will be liquid especially in the lower runs.
For this period, I predict an average snow net gain of about 18-28cm for Vic and a bit more for NSW.
weather is complicated and unpredictable - especially in alpine regions in Aus climate.
They don't just make this stuff up.
i think you will find a handful of people on here called every system pretty well. 4 day rule. And this is weather after all. It's not easy to predict alpine regions in a marginal cl like Australia. Models have been ok actually as well IMO. Just one degree out
friday AM is the only danger for temps - the speckled cloud is steaming towards us. It's all cold after Friday early afternoon IMO
I actually like scouring through these forums and looking at certain charts you guys post that I haven't seen before. It's the only site I trust, including Jane that actually make sense of hard to predict alpine weather. I'm not here to criticise, I'm here to learn more. Sorry for being off topic...
I predict this time next week things will be looking much better than they are now.
Time to clean the keyboard.
The fetch to me says ( From the Sth. Pole with love )
Is this mid-latitude storm carrying more moisture than similar systems because it has started its life in the Indian Ocean, south-east of Madagascar? Instead of deepening off the WA coast/region and moving east?
I love the way that HIGH is squeezed to a tear drop on the Monday 17th pm chart.
Is there an obvs thread for this time range? Mega wind chill and now raining in Smelbourne
Good idea, I just got a text from a mate who is driving to Buller up the Hume at the moment, said it's looking very dark and stormy north of the city.
sweet baby cheezus