Predictions July 14th-18th

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Jul 7, 2017.

  1. Belly

    Belly Addicted Member
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    10cm 14-15th 70cm 17-19th
     
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  2. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

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    Next two days, 5cm range NSW (dusting), next week, 40-50cm NSW.
     
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  3. Belly

    Belly Addicted Member
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    Mine is unsettled snow ;) :)
     
  4. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

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    Wind loading will also bump these totals in some zones, should be some epic wind stashes post event!
     
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  5. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    yep. anything E through S facing will see serious accumulations, ~1m.
     
  6. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    EC downgrades.
    Vic looks like 10-20cm for the period
    NSW looks like 25-40cm for the period.
    I reckon it depends on the low positioning and wind loading for higher snowfall.
     
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  7. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    I added up totals on Stormcast and it was up around 2 feet or so.
     
  8. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    I don't like that the cut off is more towards below Adelaide, ideally needs to be sitting over or just next to Tassie.

    If it does end up sitting where they have it progged then it won't be ideal and may increase pre-frontal
     
  9. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Main Range should fill in nicely for your next BC trip ;)
     
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  10. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    if the slide at Boges on Monday is anything to go by.... caution might be advised with that amount of wind loading.
     
  11. bullet

    bullet Well-Known Member

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    Anyone know what the wind forecasts are like on Tuesday/Wednesday? Wind hold likely at Perisher?
     
  12. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Too dynamic.
    In any case, don't fret about this at this point imo
     
  13. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    wind + snow = win.
     
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  14. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    30 - 40 knots plus.
    worse in Vicco.
    Yes wind hold likely *at this stage. per Plowking ^^
    [​IMG]
     
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  15. fmdc9

    fmdc9 Active Member

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    I predict wind hold wont matter. Perisher wont be overly busy.

    Best case scenario is low winds.
     
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  16. Mctavish

    Mctavish Well-Known Member

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    We win either way - strong winds = wind blown & T bars to ride. All being well Mt P Ts will open.
     
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  17. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Disappointing it did not rain today. All that lovely snow on the Main Range Peaks, that I spied on Wednesday from Blue Cow on all aspects, has likely been blown away. Dam it. Last week saw solid accumulations not reported by Perisher AWS.

    Anyway should see some accumulations below the Peaks.

    I am thinking that the high this Saturday night, means you could get out the Main Range. Then u will have to wait till next Friday for another clearing high and another southerly gale. MMMMM were to go? :whistle:
     
    #317 7wombathead, Jul 14, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2017
  18. PiedPiper

    PiedPiper Well-Known Member

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    Pretty sure i will be splitting around stirling on weds :)
     
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  19. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    You are banned
     
  20. OuterLimits

    OuterLimits Active Member

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    What happened to the dire forecasts of 35mm of the bad stuff today? Cold enough at Perisher to have started as snow from the beginning, is it expected to warm later this afternoon?
     
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  21. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

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    From what I was looking at didn't see much in the way of rain. And temps looked marginal only for a short time period. With the event fizzing but I didn't comment :)
     
    #321 SAsurfa, Jul 14, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2017
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    1. it's slightly colder than expected.
    2. the wind is providing an adiabatic cooling effect.
    I wasn't too worried about prefrontal today (except at Buller).
     
  23. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    What do you mean? :(

    Yep I am banned from NSW ski resorts for the rest of the year. :oops:

    :p Always looking for highs means its a good season bro.

    Wind = Crampons.

    [​IMG]
     
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  24. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    Yep - no point having a 4m base if you don't get a window to ride fluff on top of it. Once we have 1m at Spencers Creek we just want regular top ups with a few sunny days between.
     
  25. CarveMan

    CarveMan aussieskier.com
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    4m base makes for a pretty good spring though....
     
  26. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    NZ just quietly getting smashed
     
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  27. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Although a 4 m base sounds pretty cool.
     
  28. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    Hero snow.
     
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  29. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Have to charge both sides of the Tasman this year. :D
     
  30. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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  31. Bullerdonk

    Bullerdonk Active Member

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    Hopefully that low can park itself a little further NE, multiple embedded..... mmmm
     
    #331 Bullerdonk, Jul 14, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2017
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  32. iagreewithhim

    iagreewithhim Dedicated Member

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    Tuesday = powder day?
     
  33. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    This arvos GFS still looking very nice for next Tuesday - Thursday.
     
  34. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    With a foot or so on top, will it matter?
     
  35. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    Mmm, chairlift jumps... but not recommended
     
  36. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    A foot? And the rest on the main range...
     
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  37. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Similarly to last 2 days the 2 Cut Off Lows have been progged to seperate at a similar time with the high pressure loitering between the 2. The timing and latitudinal movement has been ( and still is) integral to the path of the cold pool we so muchly desire. Kinda like a builders spirit level. So far so good
     
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  38. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    The cold shot due on 19th visible at 55 South. Certainly shown to move very much Northly . Seems a little low percentile IMO.
     
  39. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Tuesday is a lock for about a foot.

    Methinks maybe extend other thread to start on the 17th?
     
  40. Adamski

    Adamski Active Member

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    Don't give up your day jobs.................................


















    jokes!
     
  41. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    All Aboard the Vorticity train.
     
  42. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Please explain
     
  43. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    He's suggesting this thread got yesterday wrong. I disagree, although not many resorts got to 5cm...
     
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  44. Kappy

    Kappy Well-Known Member

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    BOM upgrade upgrade upgrade....
    Hope it holds!
     
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  45. Pippenn_2K

    Pippenn_2K Just Registered

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    Them winds!
     
  46. snowgum

    snowgum Dedicated Member

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    I respectfully disagree wrt Victoria Alps where it's seems steady for Tuesday: (8-28mm Buller & 8-30mm Hotham).
    I note Vic Bom are generally much more conservative when predicting rain/snow totals (sorry guys - how I see it after 30 years' skiing!)

    8mm min vs 20mm is a big difference for Hotham vs Thredbo/Perisher. Is that right? Is it the extra height, the position of front, the topography, all of this?

    Or the difference of the Sydney vs Melbourne forecasters?

    Thoughts anyone?

    Be fascinated to hear from the Inner Council!
     
  47. SMSkier

    SMSkier Dedicated Member

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    Not sure other than we have not had serious ongoing winds this winter. In respect to Perisher, I know several runs that will benefit from the aspect wind driven snow off the range on top of the snow that falls across the resort. Fingers crossed all the ski fields get their fair share
     
  48. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    Preparing for the last minute downgrades so...............................25 - 35cm in NSW , VIC ..........don't know really anything about Buller so Falls/Hotham 20 - 35cm. Optimistic even these average totals will be reached.
     
  49. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Choo, choo! All aboard the embedded front train! Count em :)

    [​IMG]
     
  50. Snowies

    Snowies Dedicated Member

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    Not sure where the BOM's confidence for precip comes from (the upper limits look high), none of the models had those sort of totals in this afternoons updates. Taking the latest precip forecasts I reckon 10-15cm for Vic resorts and 15-20cm in NSW. Snow from late Monday afternoon (4pm ish) through breakfast time Wednesday before the weather clears. Snow level hovering around 1300m in Vic for the most part. NSW resorts wont see much until early Tuesday and persist a little longer into Wednesday afternoon before clearing, snow level around 1400m.
     
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