Predictions July 14th-18th

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jul 7, 2017.

  1. Taipan

    Taipan Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tuesday Wednesday is starting to firm up. Wednesday snow to the northern tablelands.

    30-50cm. All depends how it hits. Pretty sweet blizzard! Those isobars are pretty close. So expect gales.

    Currently parts of that system are hitting WA. 25mm+.

    By tuesday that moisture forms with a strong series of fronts and punches into the SE.
     
    #351 Taipan, Jul 15, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 15, 2017
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  2. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes, we're seeing an interesting July so far on the far SW tip. Precip everyday, up around 135mm month to date, finally seeing some tropical seeding of the fronts which has been missing since about October last year, hope for another 250mm+ July like last year.

    Our water tables are seriously lagging from the very dry April & June, but this next series of front should get things looking more like mid-July. Noticeable is the warming though in the last week with that tropical indeed, back to that usual WA winter feel were a jacket is just a bit to overdressed & shorts are comfortable. Plants agree, with pasture, shrub & tree growth powering suddenly. Some autumn flowering acacia's just flowering now, spring flowering species starting to bud up already.
     
    #352 Rabid K9, Jul 16, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 16, 2017
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  3. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Its a model resolution issue.

    AXS G is run an a 25km grid. AXS R on a 12km grid. So AXS R can model topographic effects better than AXS G but still hopeless when compared to real topography. SO best indicator is AXS R and its showing some orange over the Main Range on the Tuesday 2200hrs forecast. Thats 30-40mm range.

    But the resolution is still no good in the mountain environment. For example, last Tuesday the sun was out at Thredbo, yet is was still snowing quite nicely just a couple of km's away at Dead Horse Gap and further south. QUite often it is snowing at Thredbo, but sunny down at the Ranger Station.
     
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  4. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A GFS plot showing Vertical Velocity and subsidence (Divergence) on the lee side of Topography. You can cross reference with wind shear, Divergence/ Convergence, mixing ratios and vorticity all at 50 hPa increments. Not super high resolution but can give an idea of potentials .
     
  5. BP Ski

    BP Ski Hard Yards

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    Can we have some updated predictions for Monday through to Wednesday. Are we still looking at a decent top up? Seems to be a lot of disagreement among weather sites.
     
  6. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking to favour NSW at present but tracking far from set in stone. IMO
     
    #356 Kletterer, Jul 16, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 16, 2017
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO 30-40cm for the majors.
     
  8. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    IMO from todays maps 30-40cm NSW maybe a little less VIC
     
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  9. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A reasonable amount of CAPE about for this system. Convection:thumbs:
     
  10. Taipan

    Taipan Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    So bit of an update. Here is a simple primer for anybody new to skiing about Australian snow and weather systems.

    This has always been my preferred model. http://wxmaps.org/pix/aus.fcst.html Seems to work OK.

    You need pressure and temp in Australia. The key line for Australia is the 540 line. If that line is north of the ski resorts. If the 540 line is North of of the Australian alps its sub zero in the village at Thredbo.

    The majority of the time snow normally comes out of the west and SW and South. (yes rare events easterly). Prefrontal snow can come out of the NW but often this is marginal or just a little warmer which and the cold air is behind the front when the wind turns west, south west or south. Its these pre frontal rain bands that do so much damage to the Australian snow pack. Rain, then freezing temps. :tany:

    So we look for frontal systems. We look for isobars close together reaching down as far as possible towards antarctica to bring that cold air as far north as possible. Close isobars mean strong winds. Those winds bring the frigid air.

    However we also need the second part. You can get freezing temps but no moisture.

    So we want moisture to flow over the alps at the same time. Yes sounds simple - but important to just explain that, to first timers.

    So Monday night. 12Z is 10.00pm

    [​IMG]

    This is the coming front punching up out of the bight. Lots of nice isobars going all the way down towards antarctica.

    Good moisture band approaching

    [​IMG]

    Tuesday night.

    [​IMG]

    Again look at those isobars. Also look at that huge blob of cold air just to the south of WA. If any of that air feeds into the frontal system - well ..... Interesting pattern. Will it integrate or will it separate? Weather does its thing.

    Moisture. Now look at where the isobars are. They ones below the 540 line south of Victoria are all flowing gale force south to north. Look where the moisture is.

    This is important. That moisture will be blown along those isobar lines. In this case towards our alps

    [​IMG]

    Whole series of bands of moisture blowing through. See that blob below WA Huge amounts of moisture there and its all very cold air.

    Next are forecast 96 hours out - at this point the models start to scramble. Lets wait a day or two and see whether anything comes of that second system. Hopefully this may have been helpful to somebody

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #360 Taipan, Jul 16, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 16, 2017
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  11. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thanks @Taipan. Great explanation! Now fingers crossed for this coming week.
     
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  12. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Please yeah...nah... Please be correct this time, or at least less inaccurate.

    Perisher...



    I don't like the -1Cs because yeah nah has consistently got them wrong this season (it's been warmer).

    Otherwise, Tues-Wed looks the goods. (If yeah... nah is even slightly on the mark).
     
    #362 DidSurfNowSki, Jul 16, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 16, 2017
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  13. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

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    Thanks Taipan, great charts, great explanation for us er um, more humble met 'watchers'.

    Let's hope - it pans put ok - esp the leaner Vic fields!
     
  14. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

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    Thanks Taipan, great charts, great explanation for us er um, more humble met 'watchers'.

    Let's hope - it pans put ok - esp the leaner Vic fields!
     
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  15. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Roger.
    Not quite textbook but I suspect it will have the desired result.
    and I observe it's looking good for the follow up later in the week if that ridge holds it's position.
     
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  16. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Latest GFS run has not backed off an inch. Next EC run should be lock it in time. Will be surprised if we dont get minimum of 30 cents from it.
     
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  17. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Current water vapour at 700 hPa looking sweet
     
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  18. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    This should be the standard weather pic for Australia!
     
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  19. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    50cm+ for all VIC and NSW majors.
     
  20. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    That is what the doctor ordered!
     
  21. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    This there an animation of this chart available?
     
  22. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not sure about that gentle breeze bit!
     
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  23. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    #373 nfip, Jul 16, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 16, 2017
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  24. newman

    newman Addicted

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    Hello friends!

    Just arrived in Smiggs.

    Any word on when the snow is gonna start from this front? I'm hella outta my league with this weather talk.
     
  25. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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  26. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tomorrow night/early Tuesday morning.
    * NSW.
     
  27. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Location:
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    Minimum, above 1700m
     
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  28. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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  29. derwent

    derwent One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    No disrespect for sheep but that particular warning ^^ from bom has always been a favourite :)
     
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  30. newman

    newman Addicted

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    Thank you friend!
     
  31. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    keep an eye on the satellite / radar.
    Might be there bit earlier the way it's travelling.
     
  32. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    When TV aggregation first came to regional Australia and we started getting morning TV I can still remember Brian Burey saying beware of sheep graziersLOL no such thing as a sheep graziers warning in FNQ.

    Yeah, I know, stay on topic.
     
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  33. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us

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    Sheep Graziers by and large pay heed to such warnings however modern technology has pretty much superseded the need for the warning. I took action for this early yesterday , my immature stock were locked away in the heated barns.
     
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  34. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    You are obviously switched on. I scratch my head when the lowland flood and you get cockies saying how they were caught unprepared. They had at least 5 days warning from the forecast and a further two days sunce the flood moved through the upper catchment.
     
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  35. derwent

    derwent One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Stay on topic. Predictions only pls ;).
     
  36. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Very nice to see all those sub 1030 highs in there.
     
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  37. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not to mention the whole it's your livelihood and any smart operation would educate themselves all things local climate
     
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  38. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Anyway.
    Reckon this system will be your standard foot/25-30ish cm snowfall.
     
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  39. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes. None of the thumping big 1040's.
    Adds some confidence the string of lows may go the distance to us across the roaring 40's.
     
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  40. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM thinking snow possible above 1100M on Wednesday and 1000M on Thursday NSW CT's.
     
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  41. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    There's this morning's downgrade. Phew, I was starting to get worried.
     
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  42. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    VIC - 30-40cms at Falls and Hotham, more wind-loading with big drifts >3 feet. Buller to get a foot down to 1000-1100m. Sorry, no time for more detail.
     
  43. Rat trap bindings

    Rat trap bindings One of Us

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  44. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Yuck not liking today with the BOM forecast predicting 4 degrees max at Perisher.

    Hopefully not too much pre-frontal but from late tonight into tomorrow is looking very promising for some nukage

    IMO at least 30cm+ to come perhaps up to 50cm (Forecasting for Perisher)

    One thing for sure there will be some big wind drifts and mega loading after this event.

    Best thing about events like this are the snow fencing that can help capture it all, then farm it all around

    I think Tuesday AM into Wednesday AM 24 hour totals will be juicy IMO
     
    #394 FourSquare04, Jul 17, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 17, 2017
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  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Welcome.
    IMO because (IIRC) they are based off GFS, and hence not that accurate.
    Fun to look at though.
     
    #395 Claude Cat, Jul 17, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 17, 2017
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  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO no real change for me. The downgrade was late last week.
    Still looking at 30-40cm as I said yesterday.
     
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  47. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    BOM reckon just 20-30 cm for main Vic resorts.
     
  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Seems about right. NSW will 10cm more IMO.
     
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  49. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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  50. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Over the entire duration period Claude? Seems a little conservative ;)