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Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Jul 7, 2017.
The way this winter has gone, I'd be betting on the low side rather than the high side.
Okay, let's cut to the chase: what extra terrain will be open by Thursday/Friday at Thredbo after this thing has done its thing?
Thanks in advance.
Fair call Claude, fair call.
On paper it sure looks juicy IMO, but let's wait and see. I'm tipping a bit of pre-frontal today given the warm temps forecast, before that cold air comes through later on / overnight but early AM Tuesday it will be game on in a BIG way once that colder air arrives.
Very hard to tell Adam but at a best guesstimate, you could be looking at the whole mountain open by next weekend.
Thursday/Friday they will be hard at work trying to get as much open in time for the weekend warriors.
Karels high probability. Sponars not yet. Little Beauty, True Blue, Funnel Web, will have enough to ski but not officially till maybe the weekend.
Even to achieve 30-40cm requires the system to achieve the BOM's higher precip estimates (25% chance of exceeding), the 50% chance of exceeding BOM totals put the system between 10-25cm. Shouldn't see too much action today aside from some scatterred snow showers, most likely will kick off during the early hours of tomorrow. I suspect the resort average will be between 20 and 30cm, a few areas up high may fair a bit better.
I agree with you there Arne.
Having not been down yet I can't confirm based off 'on mountain' observations but from experience, Sponars is a very rocky area and takes a while to fill in. It's usually the last lift to open (apart from Ramshead chair which never opens). A big wind blown dump like this will help to fill it in nicely but it will likely need a further 20-30cm after this week to get it right for opening.
I'm sure they will be pushing very hard to get the whole mountain open as quickly as possible but let's just wait and see by Tuesday PM how much has fallen first before making further calls
The key element at play here in Oz is WIND and punters are quite often disappointed when they get down there after a so called 'huge dump of snow from hearing the reports' only to find lots of exposed areas with next to no snow but then other areas with 1m+ drifts / stashes. You just need to know where to look
That's my 2c rant
Back on topic
Weatherzone current article / forecast for the period:
"A large pool of cold air wrapping into this low will ensure that the alps see some of their best snow so far this season. Freezing temperatures, westerly winds and moisture will combine to produce 20-40cm of snow in the mountains, most of which will fall on Tuesday. The wind direction will cause the highest snow accumulations to occur on the western slopes of the ranges, although with snow lowering to about 1100m on Tuesday, all of the main resorts will see fresh falls."
And that's the thing, really. At this point, with what's happened so far this year, it's not going to take much at all to qualify as the best snowfalls for the season.
But, we'll all wait with fingers crossed.
2 x 968 lows heading this way - lets hope they make it
Long as they dont combine into a 1936hpa high all will be good
Look at the forecast totals for the coming days, 7cm?? Wow.
And then look at the BOM 3 Day totals forecast, this is 30mm+ for just the 24 hour period this evening through tomorrow evening.
Can see why it's not useful.
Here we go people - 4 day update is out - looks intense IMO:
2 days of blizzards to come IMO with the back half as was predicted to favour Southern VIC resorts
I'm at Perisher pub and it's puking. Beautiful big wet flakes and no wind. I just came down from Mt P and it was chucking it down up there.
the classic arm wrestle between big fat highs and lows. cmon you lows, push those god damn highs to the north where they belong
Glad I edited in the "maybe earlier " disclaimer last night.
Yeah your right. But it was so good to see the main range with fresh snow on all aspects.
This system will scour some aspects and load up other aspects.
Tuesday really does have that NW hook needed for the resorts. Thursday is a full hack with those sw winds. Friday looks good on NE Aspects
Single digit minimums for us FNQ folk Thursday morning by the looks. Off topic but on topic if that makes sense.
Just read that this might be a fizzer for NSW. Any thoughts on here about that now? How do you think NSW will go over the next few days.
It's going to snow and blow for a few days. Simple as that. How much cm?....... soon we will see.
Add to that. 10cm of snow covering everything and the punters are pounding Facebook with 'pukage' and 'best day of the season'. They will be very happy by tomorrow afternoon.
Scroll back a couple pages for recent forecasts.
What we thinking for CT's? Worth a mini trip?
Bp, in a few days 60-90% of ski runs will be open in NSW. More than enough terrain for good times!
Can we have some goodness at BB please Not looking good at present +1.5
Family planning on driving from Jindy to Canberra and back tomorrow. Whats the likelihood the road will be a problem? most of the weather is from the west and normally the bad systems for that road come from the south but wanted to get the weather nerds opinions.
That's cold. LM currently at 3.8. And rising.
I'd say none. It's a pretty rare event where that would be a problem. *not a weather nerd, just pretty familiar with the trip.
Should be fine. If it snows whilst driving slow down.
I did the drive from Canberra to Sydney a few years ago in heavy snow fall, driving along lake george I could see snow accumulating on the road so I dropped to 60kph in the 110 zone . 4 cars overtook me doing the speed limit, at the first right hander on the north side of the lake all 4 vehicles went straight ahead into the sheep paddock. 2 cars had already slipped into the centre southbound . No one hit anything so no injuries. I was the only car in the group that made it around the corner (normal 2wd car). Its not rocket science ,snow and ice is slippery - you need to slow down. Emergency stopping distances will be double or triple. The heavier your vehicle the longer it will take to stop.
Thanks for the reply but I'm concerned about the family being on the outside of that corner when the out of control cars come through. That road tends to have more carnage on it in a snow event than Jindy->Perisher or Jindy->Thredbo.
Forecast is possibility of snow at 1100m. Varneys range is about the only spot that *might* be a worry if it gets that low.
Any thoughts on how this system is progressing so far, forecast vs actual? I don't know why but I don't feel optimistic about this one. Too many "failed" snow systems that didn't eventuate to much this season. Please let this one be different...
There's a big band of moisture on the radar heading towards Buller and further north on the Alps...have I got that right?
Go to obs thread @Adamski
Sure...but it hasn't hit yet.
Thursday is the bad day for that IMO.
So, has this system been a fizzer? Or is there more predicted for today? My trip tomorrow may yet be a non event
Considering the Low is still centered west of Adelaide i'd say it hasn't even arrived yet. The next 24hrs was always going to be the business end. So call it Thursday afternoon.
The low is currently spinning SW of the Vic/SA border. Needs to move a touch more easterly, which it should, before the real fun starts. Patience.
Little bands incoming on the radar at the moment.
tomorrow will be great.
Let's hope so.
will be. best day for this storm cycle. always best to get it when it's falling in Aus.
Actually READ the prediction thread bro!
hit the X bottom right above the meteogram.
press play in bottom LHS.
edit - Oh and you can set and save Mt Sterling , Buller , Hotham whatever in your favourites.
Limited snow overnight (mix of rain/snow and nothing), most of the models forecast it to commence snowing in the early hours of this morning - which it hasn't and most of the models continue to show/predict that most of the moisture will have fallen by 10pm tonight. The models also show that it should be snowing hard through this morning and into this afternoon. Beyond midnight tonight the winds start to turn more to the south (and are southerly by mid morning tomorrow) and the window for the northern resorts will have closed - aside from some scattered snow showers. If it doesn't snow hard later this morning and well into the afternoon/evening, it's hard to see when it will, even the BOM forecasts aren't quite as bullish about the prospects. The window is narrowing and the heavy showers are still well to the west. I wouldn't say this was happening 'as predicted' atm. Time will tell.
bookmarking the shit out this!
there's a lot in there to play with