Predictions July 14th-18th

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Jul 7, 2017.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    The way this winter has gone, I'd be betting on the low side rather than the high side. ;)
     
  2. Adamski

    Adamski Active Member

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    Okay, let's cut to the chase: what extra terrain will be open by Thursday/Friday at Thredbo after this thing has done its thing?

    Thanks in advance.
     
  3. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Nope.

    Check hotham ;)
     
  4. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Fair call Claude, fair call.

    On paper it sure looks juicy IMO, but let's wait and see. I'm tipping a bit of pre-frontal today given the warm temps forecast, before that cold air comes through later on / overnight but early AM Tuesday it will be game on in a BIG way once that colder air arrives.
     
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  5. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Very hard to tell Adam but at a best guesstimate, you could be looking at the whole mountain open by next weekend.

    Thursday/Friday they will be hard at work trying to get as much open in time for the weekend warriors.

    IMO
     
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  6. Arne

    Arne Well-Known Member

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    Karels high probability. Sponars not yet. Little Beauty, True Blue, Funnel Web, will have enough to ski but not officially till maybe the weekend.
     
  7. Snowies

    Snowies Dedicated Member

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    Even to achieve 30-40cm requires the system to achieve the BOM's higher precip estimates (25% chance of exceeding), the 50% chance of exceeding BOM totals put the system between 10-25cm. Shouldn't see too much action today aside from some scatterred snow showers, most likely will kick off during the early hours of tomorrow. I suspect the resort average will be between 20 and 30cm, a few areas up high may fair a bit better.
     
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  8. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    I agree with you there Arne.

    Having not been down yet I can't confirm based off 'on mountain' observations but from experience, Sponars is a very rocky area and takes a while to fill in. It's usually the last lift to open (apart from Ramshead chair which never opens). A big wind blown dump like this will help to fill it in nicely but it will likely need a further 20-30cm after this week to get it right for opening.

    I'm sure they will be pushing very hard to get the whole mountain open as quickly as possible but let's just wait and see by Tuesday PM how much has fallen first before making further calls

    IMO
     
  9. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    The key element at play here in Oz is WIND and punters are quite often disappointed when they get down there after a so called 'huge dump of snow from hearing the reports' only to find lots of exposed areas with next to no snow but then other areas with 1m+ drifts / stashes. You just need to know where to look ;)

    That's my 2c rant ;)

    Back on topic

    Weatherzone current article / forecast for the period:

    "A large pool of cold air wrapping into this low will ensure that the alps see some of their best snow so far this season. Freezing temperatures, westerly winds and moisture will combine to produce 20-40cm of snow in the mountains, most of which will fall on Tuesday. The wind direction will cause the highest snow accumulations to occur on the western slopes of the ranges, although with snow lowering to about 1100m on Tuesday, all of the main resorts will see fresh falls."
     
  10. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 Dedicated Member

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    And that's the thing, really. At this point, with what's happened so far this year, it's not going to take much at all to qualify as the best snowfalls for the season.

    But, we'll all wait with fingers crossed.
     
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  11. Taipan

    Taipan Part of the Furniture
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    2 x 968 lows heading this way - lets hope they make it
     
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  12. skimax

    skimax Old And Crusty
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    Long as they dont combine into a 1936hpa high all will be good
     
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  13. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

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    Look at the forecast totals for the coming days, 7cm?? Wow.

    And then look at the BOM 3 Day totals forecast, this is 30mm+ for just the 24 hour period this evening through tomorrow evening.

    Can see why it's not useful.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  14. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Here we go people - 4 day update is out - looks intense IMO: :eek:

    [​IMG]
     
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  15. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    2 days of blizzards to come IMO with the back half as was predicted to favour Southern VIC resorts
     
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  16. newman

    newman Active Member

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    I'm at Perisher pub and it's puking. Beautiful big wet flakes and no wind. I just came down from Mt P and it was chucking it down up there.
     
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  17. SnowBound

    SnowBound Dedicated Member

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    the classic arm wrestle between big fat highs and lows. cmon you lows, push those god damn highs to the north where they belong
     
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  18. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Glad I edited in the "maybe earlier " disclaimer last night. :D
     
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  19. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Yeah your right. But it was so good to see the main range with fresh snow on all aspects.

    This system will scour some aspects and load up other aspects.

    Tuesday really does have that NW hook needed for the resorts. Thursday is a full hack with those sw winds. Friday looks good on NE Aspects



    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  20. Seafm

    Seafm Dedicated Member
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    Single digit minimums for us FNQ folk Thursday morning by the looks. Off topic but on topic if that makes sense.
     
  21. BP Ski

    BP Ski Just Registered

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    Just read that this might be a fizzer for NSW. Any thoughts on here about that now? How do you think NSW will go over the next few days.
     
  22. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

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    It's going to snow and blow for a few days. Simple as that. How much cm?....... soon we will see.
     
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  23. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

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    Add to that. 10cm of snow covering everything and the punters are pounding Facebook with 'pukage' and 'best day of the season'. They will be very happy by tomorrow afternoon.
     
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  24. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Scroll back a couple pages for recent forecasts.
    And welcome. :)
     
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  25. SnowBound

    SnowBound Dedicated Member

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    What we thinking for CT's? Worth a mini trip?
     
  26. maverik

    maverik Active Member

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    Bp, in a few days 60-90% of ski runs will be open in NSW. More than enough terrain for good times!
     
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  27. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear Active Member

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    Can we have some goodness at BB please :( Not looking good at present +1.5
     
  28. OuterLimits

    OuterLimits Active Member

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    Family planning on driving from Jindy to Canberra and back tomorrow. Whats the likelihood the road will be a problem? most of the weather is from the west and normally the bad systems for that road come from the south but wanted to get the weather nerds opinions.
     
  29. teckel

    teckel Old And Crusty
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    That's cold. LM currently at 3.8. :( And rising.
     
  30. chicski

    chicski Dedicated Member
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    I'd say none. It's a pretty rare event where that would be a problem. *not a weather nerd, just pretty familiar with the trip.
     
  31. Alexski

    Alexski Active Member

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    Should be fine. If it snows whilst driving slow down.
    I did the drive from Canberra to Sydney a few years ago in heavy snow fall, driving along lake george I could see snow accumulating on the road so I dropped to 60kph in the 110 zone . 4 cars overtook me doing the speed limit, at the first right hander on the north side of the lake all 4 vehicles went straight ahead into the sheep paddock. 2 cars had already slipped into the centre southbound . No one hit anything so no injuries. I was the only car in the group that made it around the corner (normal 2wd car). Its not rocket science ,snow and ice is slippery - you need to slow down. Emergency stopping distances will be double or triple. The heavier your vehicle the longer it will take to stop.
     
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  32. OuterLimits

    OuterLimits Active Member

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    Thanks for the reply but I'm concerned about the family being on the outside of that corner when the out of control cars come through. That road tends to have more carnage on it in a snow event than Jindy->Perisher or Jindy->Thredbo.
     
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  33. chicski

    chicski Dedicated Member
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    Forecast is possibility of snow at 1100m. Varneys range is about the only spot that *might* be a worry if it gets that low.
     
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  34. stridercdh

    stridercdh Active Member

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    Any thoughts on how this system is progressing so far, forecast vs actual? I don't know why but I don't feel optimistic about this one. Too many "failed" snow systems that didn't eventuate to much this season. Please let this one be different...
     
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  35. Adamski

    Adamski Active Member

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    There's a big band of moisture on the radar heading towards Buller and further north on the Alps...have I got that right?
     
  36. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture
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  37. Adamski

    Adamski Active Member

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    Sure...but it hasn't hit yet. ;)
     
  38. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Thursday is the bad day for that IMO.
     
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  39. stridercdh

    stridercdh Active Member

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    So, has this system been a fizzer? Or is there more predicted for today? My trip tomorrow may yet be a non event :(
     
  40. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    Considering the Low is still centered west of Adelaide i'd say it hasn't even arrived yet. The next 24hrs was always going to be the business end. So call it Thursday afternoon.
     
  41. Undies

    Undies Part of the Furniture
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    The low is currently spinning SW of the Vic/SA border. Needs to move a touch more easterly, which it should, before the real fun starts. Patience.

    Little bands incoming on the radar at the moment.
     
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  42. Undies

    Undies Part of the Furniture
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    Jinx.
     
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  43. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    tomorrow will be great.
     
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  44. stridercdh

    stridercdh Active Member

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    Let's hope so.
     
  45. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    will be. best day for this storm cycle. always best to get it when it's falling in Aus.
     
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  46. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Crikey.
    Actually READ the prediction thread bro!
     
  47. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    #447 nfip, Jul 18, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 18, 2017
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  48. Snowies

    Snowies Dedicated Member

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    Limited snow overnight (mix of rain/snow and nothing), most of the models forecast it to commence snowing in the early hours of this morning - which it hasn't and most of the models continue to show/predict that most of the moisture will have fallen by 10pm tonight. The models also show that it should be snowing hard through this morning and into this afternoon. Beyond midnight tonight the winds start to turn more to the south (and are southerly by mid morning tomorrow) and the window for the northern resorts will have closed - aside from some scattered snow showers. If it doesn't snow hard later this morning and well into the afternoon/evening, it's hard to see when it will, even the BOM forecasts aren't quite as bullish about the prospects. The window is narrowing and the heavy showers are still well to the west. I wouldn't say this was happening 'as predicted' atm. Time will tell.
     
    #448 Snowies, Jul 18, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 18, 2017
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  49. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    bookmarking the shit out this!
    Thanks mate! :thumbs:
     
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  50. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    there's a lot in there to play with
     
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