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Predictions July 15-18th System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jul 8, 2014.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks like a fairly strong system (IMO) that has been on the last two deterministic EC runs.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    Looks pretty darn good on AXS as well, but GFS yet to run with it.
     
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  2. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pinched from the BBQ thread, care of Donald.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Those little lows south of WA could provide nice follow-up if that high isn't too strong.
    IMO
     
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  4. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah I noticed those. Got nice little conveyor happening there if the high stalls.
    I like that the cold pool from this weekends system is still hanging around come Wednesday next week, not much chance of prefrontal yet again.
     
  5. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Spag is pretty flat for this period at this stage, just a clipper around the 18th. Has something a bit more substantial around the 21st. IMO
     
  6. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    AXS has more of a little cut off with massive southerly fetch IMO
    I arrive at Thredbo Thursday lunch, massive vested interest in this system!
    [​IMG]
     
  7. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Here it is....
    [​IMG]
     
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS officially on board as of the 00 run.

    [​IMG]
     
  9. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Like. If the trailing high gets bumped a touch more vertically oriented, more fronts may get a look in IMO CC.
     
  10. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Anyone got a theory as to why we're getting this progression this year as opposed to others? SSTs somewhere...?
     
  11. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    We had a massive set of systems come through the other week that smashed everything ahead of it and left a lot of space behind it, for more fronts to fill back in. In that time the highs havent been able to stablize themselves and the interior of the country has cooled which has also contributed to frontal progression. But it's a bit strange because the ITCZ has not moved north at a rapid rate, even in our corner of the world.

    TLDR - We got lucky, we got a big frontal system that smashed everything in front of it and in its wake more frontal systems have come through.
     
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  12. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes, but why verm? (ie it was unusual from the get go)

    Grasshopper has his 'wrong un' el niƱo theory for example
     
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  13. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    We got lucky. Some conditions came together that allowed the system to form, and it found a crack in the highs to poke through and tear open, and the rest is history.

    I think if you think too much about it you'll just confuse yourself. It is weather, that's how it is sometimes.
     
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  14. Chondro

    Chondro One of Us

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    Following this thread, vested interest. heading up to falls on the 19th
     
  15. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just for you then @Chondro.
    Latest 12UTC run.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  16. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Compared with 00UTC from yesterday.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  17. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Critique please experts.
    12UTC looks a downgrade on yesterday's?
     
  18. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    AXS has SW outbreak spinning into huge ECL. Model suggests Wed 10cm-15cm, Thurs 15cm-20cm, then see if the ECL comes off IMO AXS consistent with GFS run from yesterday. Looks like a moist inflow, hopefully embedded goodness.
     
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yeh, a bit of a downgrade on EC. IMO
    Haven't looked at the other models yet.
     
  20. Chondro

    Chondro One of Us

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    cant hit like on a downgrade! but thanks @mick chopps
     
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO GFS has backed off on this too. The high has strengthened in the latest runs and is pushing the system south.

    Mind you there no agreement between EC and GFS on how this will play out, so this will evolve yet.
     
  22. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Be nice to be able to uncover some cause-effect parameters though wouldn't it. To at least understand if the belt of highs is weaker for example and why, or that the lows are stronger and why. We have the data, just need someone to take the time to sift through it and find the patterns. Or perhaps truly, as you say, it's chaotic, so the pattern is undefinable and unknowable on all but the largest/longest scale, and therefore unpredictable.

    Anyway, off topic. More snow in this system IMO
     
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  23. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Indeed, i'm sure there is some correlation. Its just easier to assume "luck".
     
    #23 Stratus, Jul 9, 2014
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2014
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  24. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    I'll say this Wardy, the atmoshere does like to repeat itself, so when these first 3 systems roll round the South Pole for a lap, could be round's 4, 5 & 6. Currently 6 nodes, plenty going on!
     
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  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Latest GFS looks a bit better than this morning. IMO

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  26. Ben Zeenees

    Ben Zeenees One of Us

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    Volcanic dust in southern hemisphere?
     
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  27. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Cheers CC, similar to AXS this morning. Looks like a clipper but moist & cold clipper. I'll def. take that. Just wanna ski some fresh, it's been too long!
     
  28. OstrichPilot

    OstrichPilot Hard Yards

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    Long time watcher, first time poster- Rookie question, so apologies, but would this Super Typhoon Neoguri hitting Okinawa Japan be having any effect on keeping these lows steadily pumping through? Or would it be too far away/wrong hemisphere to change our weather patterns? Or I guess it could just be a symptom of more chaotic weather patterns in general.
     
  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS suggests that the high will establish itself and sit for a couple of days, providing a cold & moist southerly flow over the Alps. But the strength of the high prevents any follow-up.
    IMO
     
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Wrong hemisphere to have any affect at all.
     
  31. OstrichPilot

    OstrichPilot Hard Yards

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    cheers. I will go back to watching. thanks for all your work everyone.
     
  32. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    You're more of an EC man tho CC, what's this GFS bizzness? o_O
     
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  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Was waiting for EC to update

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  34. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Better.
     
  35. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Ahh yes, the update! Your a good man CC, good answer. OK so what ya think? Have you looked at yrno & axs? They are all kinda singing the same tune, high moving in quickly after clipper, but sustained SW flow for a day or two. Embedded moisture in that flow going to be the key (for me!) IMO
     
  36. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    This. Can deliver sustained good falls.
     
  37. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    That's what I'm praying for Wardy, flakes in the sky are what I live for mate.
     
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  38. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Vibe is good this season.
     
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  39. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Now watching closely. Looking at booking in 18/19 or 25/26. The earlier dates are a wind concern but heaps of freshies. The later date brings the trailing end of that high into play so will pay attention over next couple of days.
     
  40. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    IMO snow quality guaranteed on 18th after crisp sprinkle and cold temps following this sat. But 25th could be in middle of next action, tough call, hope you nail it filski.
     
  41. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Spearmint :thumbs:
     
  42. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    10-20cm Friday night?
     
  43. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    This friday? Yeap, should do, maybe more IMOIMO
     
  44. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    In fact more thru sat, front due sat morning.
     
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  45. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thing jungfrau is referring to Fri 18th, in which case I don't see 20cm in this for Friday night IMO.
     
  46. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wow so true.
     
  47. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pressure is a little higher than I would like at this stage. But you have to remember we're not mid-July and there's >1m natural depth at every resort, so you cant complain. Base is set, 20-30cms a week from here on in does me just fine, I'm OK with not having mega-dumps (although they would be nice).
     
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  48. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    20-30cm every week from here on would be epic on the base we have. Do you see 20-30 out this though?
     
  49. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    No. I see more.
     
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  50. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    really? Buller perhaps?