Predictions July 15-18th System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jul 8, 2014.

  1. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pretty much everywhere major. Looks really good this morning.
     
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  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looking to me that both EC and GFS are pretty much in synch. IMO
     
  3. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bit of prefrontal rain for the first time in a while CC?
     
  4. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is this the year of the tasty high? They seem to be just lining up in the right spot, with the right pressure, to keep the conveyor belt going. Much like.
     
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    It's possible (based on GFS), but remember it's already mighty cold. Freeze levels look around 1600 and while the uppers are not cold, the general low temps will help.
    IMO
     
  6. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah that's what I was thinking yesterday. Perhaps a bit sticky early before getting very cold again. Certainly by Thursday it looks very cold again.
    Axs perhaps a bit better for temps?
    IMO
     
  7. NeckDeep

    NeckDeep Hard Yards

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    Hi CC, is that forecasted 1600m freeze level the "pre-frontal" freeze level? Could we expect snow down to < 1000m going into the weekend? I'm going camping around Thredbo next weekend, and would generally prefer snow to rain in the valley :) Also, hows the wind looking at this stage?

    (sorry, bit of a weather n00b here).
     
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Freeze level for the 16th

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    Actually 500 hPas temps are much better on the 18UTC run -25C usually means snow.

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    I don't think we'll see snow to low levels until Thursday. IMO
     
  9. Vandans

    Vandans Hard Yards

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    Interesting comparison between the two days charts. The lows of WA are more prominent in todays 4 dayer
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  10. Vandans

    Vandans Hard Yards

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  11. Telemark Phat

    Telemark Phat Pass the butter Ski Pass: Gold

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    try this Vandans

    Code:
    [img]http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDG00074.gif[/img]
     
  12. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Looking like a classic NW to SW snow system with prefrontal.
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  14. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm closely watching the highs develop and subsequent follow up as I arrive on the 25th. Slightly risky dates but the earliest I can get there.
     
  15. toughnut

    toughnut Hard Yards

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    What you mean risky dates filski? I'll be in Perisher from then as well.
     
  16. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's a bit early yet - falls into a new prediction period and can only be considered hopecasting at 14days plus. However on the trailing side of any high temps can rise, if there is moisture then depending on pressure it might be ****. At this point I think it's only slightly risky and minimal, if any, damage would be done before the Friday, following that however... Maybe more falls for the weekend but waaay too early just yet
     
  17. Cheers

    Cheers Hard Yards

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    NeckDeep, where do you camp around Thredbo.
    Sorry I'm off topic
     
  18. Ben Zeenees

    Ben Zeenees One of Us

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    Hey NeckDeep - are you related to KneeDeep?
     
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
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  20. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    We are going to be near a 2m base after this one then 10cm is an epic day IMO
     
  21. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 00UTC update.
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  22. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Hmm the surface pressure is good on Thursday (1005 - 1010) but very high Friday (1020hpa wont allow for much). Moving quickly too. To make a forecast just off the above, 20cm-30cm.

    If it clears up under the 1030 high as being suggested, the weekend will be great.

    Long way to go of course!
     
  23. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    12UTC update.
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  24. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  25. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think we'll see some prefrontal rain out of this one due to the tropical influence early on, which the models are having trouble predicting accurately right now. But by Thursday arvo/night we should be sweet, from then on it looks quite cold.
     
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  26. NeckDeep

    NeckDeep Hard Yards

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    No, I prefer my snow deeper :)

    @Cheers Camping at Thredbo Diggings (near the ski tube) at this stage. Theres a few campgrounds along the Alpine way.

    This sustained snowy weather is even bringing the cold to QLD, lots of neg temps just west of Brisbane over the past couple of weeks!
     
  27. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dropping high afterwards - a sign of the end of the party?
     
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    We look to have a pause for a few days. Models are very fluid after this period. GFS suggesting something perhaps 22nd or 23rd, but it's fairly mobile at the moment. IMO
     
  29. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Agree. IMO there is a breakdown of the patterns following this system and the models currently struggle with what comes next - no accuracy confidence at all past the 20th. This system does not appear as strong as the last few and may indicate a period of stability follows for a while rather than snow each week as we've seen.
     
  30. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Possibly but you really cant look too far past each front this year.

    In the same way that 2004 was 'wake up, look at GFS, that's what's going to happen' this year is 'look at next front, wait for it to pass, then next front' the models arent doing a good job of longer range forecasting, so far anyway.
     
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  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  32. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    That looks a much better set up CC! AXS has upgraded moisture a touch, I like that the high is not totally dominating the life outta this system until Saturday.
     
  33. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    EC's been excellent long range. It picked this weeks system very well at 10 days out. And the last...

    AXS and GFS have been horrid IMO
     
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  34. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    BoM using the golden word in Falls & Hothams forecast for next week...

    "Snow." :D
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Here's EC for your viewing pleasure. IMO

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    A quick, in and out system. IMO
     
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  36. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good for 20cm imo.
     
  37. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    More than that I reccon

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  38. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I dont think the pressure is low enough to sustain significant snowfall, but a foot is not out of the question at the majors.
     
  39. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pfft......................... Snowmageddon 3 IMO. ;)
     
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  40. dr80

    dr80 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  41. Ben Zeenees

    Ben Zeenees One of Us

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    Can one of the weather glitterati summarize the likely action at Thredbo top station? I would be eternally grateful. As would other plebs, I am sure.
     
  42. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Another EC update.
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  43. derwent

    derwent One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    If that comes off I predict next Friday Will be Epic
     
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  44. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    I predict Friday is my first day on the planks this season!
     
  45. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Front for late next week has potential for coldest temps and driest snow of the year, even if quantity is not quite up there with recent dumps. Could make for some very good skiing.

    Wednesday higher looks ok for 10-15cm to me if temps hold, some resorts look likely to see some rain instead IMO. Could smooth out any ice/crust before the better snow arrives Thursday/Friday.
     
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  46. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS is saying about 1600m freezing level. So the majors would be mostly fine. Buller, Baw Baw and Thredbo village would be wet IMO.
     
  47. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Now we're talking. Pressure gets down to 1005hpa, the golden zone.

    As it stands next week im seeing 20cms at village level by Thursday morning, then possibly double or even 30cms in the next 48-72 hours after that. So could be another 50cms @1600m by Sunday night.
     
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  48. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not so much Westerly in this one, so Buller might be OK. It'll be raining in the carparks though, so the lower parts of the mountain will be wet.
     
  49. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Timing. Finally.
     
  50. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    You reckon 1600 is about right? Some residual cold air might help keep the freeze level just low enough.
    Is it right that you usually get snow lower than the freeze level in GFS charts?