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Predictions July 15-18th System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jul 8, 2014.

  1. Scoober

    Scoober One of Us

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    I think snow level is 100m lower than freeze level
     
  2. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    GFS freeze levels are only potentially accurate the day before. GFS sucks.
     
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO snow is more about 500 hPa temps or the amount of lift being generated.
    You can get snow at 2C and rain at -2C, so the freeze level isn't really an outright determinating factor.
    Put the puzzle together, uppers + 850 hPa temps, lift/shear and you can make a better estimate of snow level.
     
    #103 Claude Cat, Jul 12, 2014
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2014
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  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Still looking good on EC and GFS IMO

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    GFS looking a bit stronger than EC right now.
     
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  5. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Downgrade on EC IMO. Center of the low further south, hence resulting higher pressure over the alps. Hopefully an outlier. GFS looks better tonight as you said.
     
  6. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Not looking too bad on tonight's prognosis. Just a little concerned about the trailing high and that ridge.

    [​IMG]
     
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  7. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Vic BOM going for heavy snow showers?
    Must be a different duty forecaster ;)
     
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  9. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    And where there is a sig diff bw 850 and 500 (ie one is nice and cold but the other is a bit meh), it helps to look at the 700 hPa charts IMO.
     
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  10. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Still looking pretty good on EC 12UTC - more of a SW blast which IMO will favour VIC resorts again, if it's cold enough....
    [​IMG]
     
  11. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us

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    you will be amazed who reads this forum site.wouldn't be surprised if they got the message.the fact is their forecasts were inaccurate.
     
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  12. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep kind of like looking at the 4 dayer (with an obvious system) forecasting a few showers in Melbourne whilst a cut-off low derived from the tropics dumps all day rain instead.
    Or forecasting a 45c day as "warm and sunny"
     
  13. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Thursday looking good on BOM 4 day & 00UTC EC (which essentially the BOM use).

    IMO looks like we'll see a little pre-frontal on late Tues/early Wednesday with a good surge of cold air to come through later on Wednesday and then it will dump through Thursday and into Friday - should get a good 30-40cm top up, perhaps a little more in some places:

    [​IMG]
     
  14. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

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    I have every respect for the BOM as a weather watcher & skier/walker but I think the Vic office should use the term 'blizzards' (B word) possible/probable etc... when they're likely (as per NSW office) rather than 'snow showers & strong winds' etc....)

    In defence of the Met, they've got snow forecasts pretty right and these days they provide snow (falling to) levels which are so much better for the little resorts than just' showers/ snow showers'
     
  15. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some scrappy pre-frontal tomorrow from the leftover of some tropical moisture, then Wednesday it's game on.
     
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  16. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    @snowgum - blizzard by definition means snow fall accompanied by heavy winds. It does not imply a heavy rate of snow falling, plenty of people get too excited when they see the b word.

     
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  17. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Some extremely cold upper temps likely after Wednesday (i.e. -32c at 500 HPa). But concerned that most of the moisture will have cleared out by then...
     
  18. wrxbouy

    wrxbouy Hard Yards

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    bustin air somewhere
    Inconceivable...
     
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  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Latest GFS

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Polar jetstream is back.
    [​IMG]

    IMO NSW and Hotham Falls will do pretty well first up, Buller has the dreaded westerly factor.
    But later on Wednesday and Thursday all should do well.
    Looks like a classic 30cm kind of blast IMO.
     
  20. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yeah , looks quite OK..
    NSW will do well, just needs less wind IMO
     
  21. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    CC can you give us likely conditions on MT Bogong that will limit aerial searching and what is possibility of blizzard conditions in next couple of days please...
     
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO
    Cloud cover will build tomorrow and the winds will pick up Wednesday and Thursday. Both days will be tough for that kind of work. Tomorrow will be touch and go - perhaps ok first up.
     
  23. NeckDeep

    NeckDeep Hard Yards

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  24. Chondro

    Chondro One of Us

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    still looking like pre frontal ? Cold as hell up here north west victoria, last 2 days have been coldest of the year by far
     
  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Tuesday will be marginal. 1800m should be safe. 1600m perhaps, below probably not IMO
     
  26. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    This. It's leftovers, but I dont think it'll be more than 10mm for most places. Not that rain is an issue for us anymore, unless it's 100mm+.
     
  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  28. dr80

    dr80 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    snow level estimate for Hotham Wednesday please?
     
  29. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I don't see anything positive from this tropical system
    If it does snow , its also going to rain..
    will all be good later though
     
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  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Can't see it much different to Tuesday, but there's less moisture around until Thursday when it really cools down.
    IMO
     
  31. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Sat pic doesn't look too friendly IMO
     
  32. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    The best of it looks like from late Wednesday through Friday IMO
     
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  34. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    1 degree either side of dismal and excellent
     
  35. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    "Punch and Judy" i'll name this system
     
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  36. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Forecasts for tomorrow??

    Looking wet and windy at Buller?
     
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Don't think it will get wet until late. IMO
    Perhaps a shower or two before closing.
     
  38. CanSurfCantSki

    CanSurfCantSki Hard Yards

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    Does that signal wet at Buller on Wednesday or snow? First midweek trip, day off for a bday slide. Fingers crossed...
     
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO a little damp first up. Will be soft.
     
  40. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Put off birthday a day or 2
     
  41. CanSurfCantSki

    CanSurfCantSki Hard Yards

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    Hah, well my bday is actually on Fri. But I had to sneak in the snow trip on Wed as I'm off to sunny QLD on Thurs. On the bright side, it will come in handy in helping me dry off from the puddle that may be Buller on Wed.
     
  42. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    I'll be rolling into Thredbo Thursday lunch for 5 days, obs pics will flow like Augustus Gloops chocolate river :thumbs:
     
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  43. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    VIC Bom more optimistic about snow levels.

    Tuesday 15 July
    Cloudy with patchy rain developing from the north and west during the day, and becoming more extensive over the northeast. Remaining dry over east Gippsland. Rain falling as snow above 1500 metres, but later lowering to 1300 metres. Cool with moderate northerly winds, fresh at times in the south and about the ranges.

    Wednesday 16 July
    Areas of rain about the northeast at first, easing during the morning. Isolated showers over remaining southern and mountain districts, though mostly dry over Gippsland. Showers increasing over the southwest during the late afternoon and evening. Snowfalls down to 1300 metres. A cool and mostly cloudy day with moderate to fresh northwesterly winds.

    Thursday 17 July
    Scattered showers and local hail, falling as snow above 600 metres. Showers more widespread near the coast and about the eastern ranges. The chance of thunderstorms in the south. A cold day with moderate to fresh northwesterly winds shifting west to southwesterly.
     
  44. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yeah NSW BOM bullish as well
     
  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I don't really see it.
     
  46. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Neither
    I think it will rain snow mix...depending on time of day vs night
     
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  47. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Must be the 700 temps (bom), but I reckon lucky to see snow below 1800 with the 850's at 4 deg

    Wow thurs is cold. Coldest yet this year iirc. Snow below 600mtrs not unlikely IMO (widespread across the nearby hills maybe...)
     
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  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yeh, 700's of -5 isn't shabby, but nothing else leads me to think that we'll get snow to lower levels early in this system.
    IMO
     
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  49. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    You'll probably find that the BOM's forecast will downgrade over the next 24 hours
     
  50. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Verm is trying to talk me in to a daytrip on Thursday (well a long weekend for me).

    Could be just the ticket, IMO.