Predictions July 15-18th System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jul 8, 2014.

  1. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    whats the general feeling on this system in regards to cold temps and low level snow??

    colder and lower than the event that has just passed?

    noticed on axs g tonight that the 528 line is close to southern vic again :thumbs:
     
  2. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Verm needs wingman with 4x4..
    ;) wish I could go :(
    One of those Buller days, and Friday imo
     
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  3. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Flow him some new outerwear ....he looks like team fubu at mo...
     
  4. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I mean verm...not plow
     
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  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO thursday should have widespread low-level snow. 600m yeh as it stands
     
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  6. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Pressure is too high for low level snow imo...while the tem looks silly cold.. the atmosphere looks quite stable at corresponding time. Nothing troughy or twitchy. Will be a vanilla cold clipper imo great for vicco.
     
  7. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    IMO Falls / Hotham will see no more than 20cm - 25cm by Friday. It'll be a great top up but no snowmageddon3
     
  8. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    im at 425m asl,any chance of a flurry claude??:p
     
  9. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Care to be more specific?

    ;)
     
  10. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just got a new Cavs singlet now LeBron is back in town.
     
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  11. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nothing like the convenience of a low riding krusty singlet for jibbing and butters.
    Still looks good for 30+ imo.
    Wouldn't bother with Buller Wednesday though, nor anywhere.
     
  12. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    At a guess 425m might be Marysville? If so, that would easily have to be the best (lowest snow) of the season. :cool:
    . (Yesterday dustings remained at around 1000m).
     
  13. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    yeah im in the strezlecki rangers gippsland south east of melbourne karicta?
     
  14. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I grew up at about the same elevation doogs. Mum says it never snows when the bom says it will, and only ever when the bom say 11deg or less for melb. But that's just an old wive's tale....

    In all srsns, I am on a bit of a limb and think you are a chance for a flurry on thurs. but, a great deal depends on aspect for marginal snow chances like this one IMO. Donz makes a good point about pressure, but I think if we were looking at sub 1000 hPa then snow would prob be settling....
     
  15. dr80

    dr80 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    if anything, BOM vic state forecast seems like an upgrade
    snow above 1300m today, and
    snow down to 1300m for tomorrow

    I know he cops a bit on here, but grasshopper on mountainwatch forecast today indicates a cold pool on the satellite image preceeding the front ??

    ... and apparently snowing at Buller and Hotham according to OBS thread
     
  16. Timmossy

    Timmossy One of Us

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    Good news on snow, hope it sticks although went to Buller for a day trip couple of weeks back, was excited on the drive up as on the radio it was "Snow down to 1200", sure enough it drizzled/light rain all day and was drenched by 9:07am!
     
  17. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    My problem is the area of low pressure driving the cold pool is too far east again.
    If it was say, mid bass strait when the coldest 850 and 700 air arrives you'd be a goer.
    Looking at the humidity progs for 700 it looks pretty stable
    shear looks sweeet FA.
    Just looks like a embedded stream with a pretty stable layer.
     
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  18. dr80

    dr80 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm pretty sure that was a result of the dreaded 'Westerly factor' at Buller.
    Northerly at the moment so a different scenario with the orographic lift
     
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  19. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I defer.....
     
  20. FLI355

    FLI355 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I have to go to Brown Mountain tomorrow which is about 1250m whats the chances of being snowed on guys?
     
  21. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    pretty slight IMO
    brown mountain needs a more southerly system.
    Bombala etc might catch some
     
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  22. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Weekend looking nice.
     
  23. max.i.am

    max.i.am Hard Yards

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  24. derwent

    derwent One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I predict that Im not the only one confused!
     
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  25. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    You've been spoilt with the systems we've had so far this season.
     
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  26. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Me ? Or everyone ?
     
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  27. stridercdh

    stridercdh Addicted

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    I'm heading to Buller for a day trip on Thursday this week. Does anyone have any predictions for how windy it is likely to be up there? To what altitude is it likely to be snowing?
     
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO snowing to the car parks first up and lowering during the day. Moderate breezes, don't think it should be to wild.
     
  29. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Satellite pic is looking pretty cold and snowy.

    Could be a gem.

    [​IMG]
     
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  31. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, BOM calling for 700m and hail:

    Melbourne area
    Partly cloudy. Scattered showers, falling as snow at times above 700 metres. Possible hail. The chance of thunderstorms in the morning and afternoon. Winds northwesterly 30 to 45 km/h turning westerly in the morning then decreasing to 25 to 35 km/h in the early afternoon.
     
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO the real cold doesn't move through until mid-morning.
     
  33. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Chucking a Snowie.

    IMO.
     
  34. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yeah when the low is 300kms right of Gabo island
    regardless , still looks fun for vicco
     
  35. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    What time is the front due in NSW hills do you think CC? I'm driving to thredbo from wodonga tomorrow morning.
     
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO it will be snowing this evening or perhaps late tonight, but the colder temps won't arrive till tomorrow afternoon.
     
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  37. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    You'll get snow from the lookout to DHG i'd say...
    Will make it fun
     
  38. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Cant see that it is a system that favors vic. I can see a system that favors northerly aspects
     
  39. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    So cold.

    I can see it now, that the last part of the system may miss the NSW, but I would say that's a big call as its such a big system

    Maybe brown mountain.

    Definitely Brown Mountain Dump IMO

    [​IMG]
     
  40. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Will this blob miss the snowies and hit Blue mountains.
    [​IMG]
     
  41. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    528 Line too.

    lots of potential

    [​IMG]
     
  42. Powjunkie

    Powjunkie Hard Yards

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    I'm heading up to Buller on Friday night for the weekend. Every time I head up there after a Thursday dump, it invariably rains Friday/Friday night and ruins everything. Is it likely to stay cold from tomorrow so we don't have a case of the R-word...?
     
  43. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    wow this is going to be a blinda for vic imo

    look at that 528 line,think it will def be the coldest blast of the winter imo

    its locked and loaded baby!! imo

    love jane saying snow to at least 600m but i think with the 528 line up and about
    it could easily fall to 4-500m imo

    could be widespread snow in unusual places imo
     
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO colder doesn't always mean more snow. It can also mean drier.
     
  45. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Tasmania effect will be In effect......sorry I don't see widespread low snow. I see some snow in a classic sw front.....then a tasman low with cold dry air
     
  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  47. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Cheers Donza, will post pics when the chains come on.
     
  48. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    imo baw baw should get smashed with this system :)

    when do we think coldest air will be passing through vic??

    im guessing for west south gippsland will be tomorrow night? imo
     
  49. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    I dunno. Speckle and presumably moisture northerly feed = goodness

    Though it's a tough call, siding against CC and Donza.

     
  50. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Booked for BB Thurs and Fri. Looking forward to some interesting conditions, hopefully the fresh on Friday. Looks the goods, as long as the road is open, or one of them.