July 15th-19th OBS

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by choc, Jul 15, 2006.

  1. Mattus

    Mattus First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2002
    Messages:
    671
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Wollongong
    "So the chooks have come home to roost and it's absolutely ******* down non-snow everywhere."

    It snowed this morning.

    The cameras so far at Perisher show a snow GAIN.
     
  2. Zyka

    Zyka First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2006
    Messages:
    234
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Unfortunately it may keeping r**ning until tomorrow at least (going on the BOM forcasts, whcig have been right so far)- I think it is better to start thinking about the rate of LOSE. I don't think that has been discussed as yet - just how fast does 2c r**n melt snow?
     
    #52 Zyka, Jul 15, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  3. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2003
    Messages:
    17,271
    Likes Received:
    9,342
    Location:
    melbourne
    Observations on the weather belong in here.
     
  4. rossi

    rossi First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 7, 2006
    Messages:
    1,218
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    CANE TOAD COUNTRY
    Lookout Hill (143.2469°E, 37.2822°S, 965m ASL )

    Is now in the influence of the Southeasterly generated by low to the north.

    Current temp: 3.8 and around 8mm of rain since 9 am.

    By the time the SE makes it to the Alps it should be getting close to evening and lower temps so here's hoping altitude and and a bit of a southerly will help.
     
  5. Bato

    Bato One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2005
    Messages:
    3,205
    Likes Received:
    724
    Location:
    Davos/Jindabyne/Brunswick Heads
    Thredbo has just hit 0 for the first time today [​IMG]
     
    #55 Bato, Jul 15, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  6. rossi

    rossi First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 7, 2006
    Messages:
    1,218
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    CANE TOAD COUNTRY
    Lookout Hill - near Ballarat - (at 965m ASL) down a point to 3.7 and another mm of rain in the hour. An indication of altitude and temperature whilst in the influence of the Sou'Easterly.
     
  7. rossi

    rossi First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 7, 2006
    Messages:
    1,218
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    CANE TOAD COUNTRY
    The lowest baro I can find on the low is Hopetoun in the Wimmera at 1005hpa. This indicates that the low is moving southerly or its just the middle level reading?
     
  8. Megs

    Megs Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2006
    Messages:
    295
    Likes Received:
    18
    Location:
    Windsor NSW
    While it's not a crowd favourite I have just spoken to one of the girls at Selwyn.... and she used that vile "R" word. IS there there is any decent snow weather heading their way? I've almost given up trying to pick it. [​IMG]
     
    #58 Megs, Jul 15, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  9. Zyka

    Zyka First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2006
    Messages:
    234
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Yes, but Mt William, which is even further west (and therfor influenced even earlier by the southerly shift) has gone from 2.1 to 2.7 in the past hour. The reading in SA are even less encouraging.
     
    #59 Zyka, Jul 15, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  10. viswin

    viswin Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 18, 2004
    Messages:
    180
    Likes Received:
    83
    Dear Zyka,

    Reading your posts has been anything but depressing. Now, have a good look at the webcam from Lantern appartment and central spur. At 2.45 this arvo, I couldn't really see a big lost My little finger tells me that with the night falling in a couple of hours on the mountain, temperature will stay cold enough to minimise the lost. I don't know if you are still waiting for the 100+ mm forecasted 1 week ago but It won't happened. Cheer up a bit, life is great mainly when the slopes are white [​IMG]
     
    #60 viswin, Jul 15, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  11. Zyka

    Zyka First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2006
    Messages:
    234
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Buller has risen to 2.3c, Hotham at 1.7c. Nothing from any Western Vic or SA AWS indicates this system is cooling on it's other side. No amount of trying to find a positive spin is going to make it snow or reduce the rain damage that will occur over the next couple of days. I'm holding off until Monday morning to see the final tally, then I'll decide on cancelling my early August bookings. The chance of a decent base (1m+)building by then is very low. Sure it's depressing, I like skiiing and the 2006 season is becoming a write-off.
     
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    116,304
    Likes Received:
    54,275
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Tempratures up at hotham (1.4), falls, (1.8), steady at buller 2.1, but down slightly at baw baw (0.8)
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    116,304
    Likes Received:
    54,275
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Zyka, where are you getting your tempratures from? I just put up the 3pm BOM readings.
     
  14. The Frog

    The Frog Old n' Crusty

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    48,171
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    NSW
    Selwyn is probably too low to get anything from this, they will have to wait for light snowfalls on Monday.
     
    #64 The Frog, Jul 15, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  15. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    65,161
    Likes Received:
    13,170
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    The season's a write off??? :doh:

    It's the 15th July!!!!
     
  16. S-man

    S-man Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2002
    Messages:
    268
    Likes Received:
    3
    Location:
    Kalgoorlie WA
    mt Wellington has dropped from 2.7 to 1.7
     
  17. sidetrack

    sidetrack One of Us

    Joined:
    Apr 20, 2005
    Messages:
    3,126
    Likes Received:
    430
    Location:
    Sunbury
    Originally posted by BH
    What a knob :goose:
     
    #67 sidetrack, Jul 15, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013
  18. FatBob

    FatBob Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 28, 2001
    Messages:
    432
    Likes Received:
    21
    Location:
    Canberra
    From the Thredbo website today at 2pm.

    "There were heavy snowfalls across the peaks throughout the day with consistent lighter snowfalls down to mid mountain. The winds were moderate."

    And Zyka I think I speak for many here when I say "I wish they'd all be quiet please"
     
  19. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,783
    Likes Received:
    10,457
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    Abuse in the weather forum????

    From the Thredbo website hey...mmm..

    So no rain at all then? [​IMG]

    ******************************************
    Moderator's note:
    If that's from the Thredbo website, it appear they are augmenting the truth.....
     
    #69 The Plowking, Jul 15, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  20. viswin

    viswin Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 18, 2004
    Messages:
    180
    Likes Received:
    83
    I am very happy that the freezing level which was sometime forecasted to be at a very high altitude today (2500-2800m) hasn't been on track. And I am not happy because some of us were wrong but because I am heading next weekend for 1 week to Thredbo and the season is just starting [​IMG]
     
    #70 viswin, Jul 15, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  21. the precious has landed

    the precious has landed First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2005
    Messages:
    77
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    tumut
    local radio in tumut has just anounced that temps are 2 deg lower than expected and selwyn is good
     
  22. chuck

    chuck Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 27, 2000
    Messages:
    269
    Likes Received:
    40
    Location:
    North East Vic
    has drizzled off and on all day since this mornings snowfalls, initially I thought there was little rain damage, however I just got back from a ski and the summit is now looking aweful, massive brown patches everywhere ......

    All the manmade areas are fine, just summit has suffered due to no snowmaking above the trainer.
     
    #72 chuck, Jul 15, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  23. BH

    BH One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2006
    Messages:
    1,092
    Likes Received:
    37
    Hey Sidetrack. Take a tip this is hardly a season ending event for the NSW resorts (Not even close!!!!)So yeah I think anyone who said this so called rain event would detroy the 2006 snow season would surely have egg all over there face. Now whos a knob!!!! :goose:
     
  24. longinforearly90s

    longinforearly90s First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2006
    Messages:
    104
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    queanbeyan
    I agree BH, those making doomsday calls were the ones who book accom in July, don't no why you would cause the only time you stay more than a night or two is between Aug 15 & Sep 15. I called when the trough started heading south that the rain damage would be minimal and that has proved correct so far in Perisher & Thredbo. If you look at their sites they have had some nice snow up high and only drizzle down low.
     
  25. Shane-wx

    Shane-wx First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2006
    Messages:
    87
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Central Coast of NSW, Australia
    Lest we stop the bragging and get on with the exciting snow discussion! :p the snowline is only going to drop come tonight, tomorrow, mon and tues! So yeh looking good, and yeh as longinforearly90s has already mentioned there has been minimal drizzle damage down low. looking good

    Shane
     
  26. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    65,161
    Likes Received:
    13,170
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    Let's just settle down a bit.....
     
  27. Fangin'Wolvy

    Fangin'Wolvy First Runs

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2004
    Messages:
    17,420
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    VIC
    *returns to kitchen and throws the popcorn bag back into the pantry in a huff*
    [​IMG]
     
    #77 Fangin'Wolvy, Jul 15, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  28. viswin

    viswin Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 18, 2004
    Messages:
    180
    Likes Received:
    83
    Sandy, you should throw one of your forecast with the blue crayola...that should make everybody happy.
     
  29. viswin

    viswin Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 18, 2004
    Messages:
    180
    Likes Received:
    83
    To please the pessimists : TB aws +1 and rising... [​IMG]
     
    #79 viswin, Jul 15, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  30. Monkey

    Monkey First Runs

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2001
    Messages:
    1,688
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Mt Loch Ski Resort
    Cheers ! I feel better now.
     
    #80 Monkey, Jul 15, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  31. Taipan

    Taipan Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2001
    Messages:
    28,258
    Likes Received:
    3,559
    Location:
    Sun Peaks 2019-2020 Season
    Yes temps could drop as night approaches.

    Two key reasons for temperatures to drop.

    Influx of cold air from elsewhere - eg southern ocean, upper level cold pool.

    or

    On clear nights with no cloud cover and high pressure allowing heat beside the earth to rise and be replaced by cold air falling from altitude.

    Do we have those conditions?

    Nah.

    Click over here at Djons wonderful weather map. (Still a lovely job Djon! )

    :thumbs:

    First thing to remember is that weather is unemotional. It doesnt care whether it snows or not.

    Click on Thredbo - and check out the slowly rising red line. At time of posting it is 0.6C. Pressure is now at 1010 and flattening out. Low is slowly slipping south and spinning.

    Latest Infared Animation

    If you want to look for some nice cold air look a thousand kms south of Perth. That looks nice and cold down there!

    Now there will be more snow out of this system, but it is going to be a bit like a cha cha. 1 step forward, two steps back etc etc (alright i know slightly more about weather then dancing).

    That means oscillating freeze levels, with periods of snow and rain. NSW resorts will do better because of their height.

    Message dont despair - we get these rain events practically every year.
     
    #81 Taipan, Jul 15, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  32. ortz18

    ortz18 First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 28, 2002
    Messages:
    3,231
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    sydney
    Its probably been asked already, but I am going down to thredbo tomorrow. By monday is the bottom of the mountain going to be gone?? It seems that way but this system is all over the place and it is hard to make sense of it all. Is there any chance of a lowering snow level or if anything is going to continue to recede?
     
  33. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    22,895
    Likes Received:
    15,574
    Location:
    Dubbo NSW
    Groomed runs should be fine - they have been making a shite load of snow. Don't expect any off piste below about 1800m though. Then again there isn't a whole lot of off piste below that height at thredbo anyhow.

    The amount of damage will depend on how much rain we get - der!. The first of the rain typically gets held up in the snowpack. The damage really starts when the snowpack reaches saturation and water starts draining away underneath the snow.
     
    #83 Snow Blowey, Jul 15, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  34. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2000
    Messages:
    10,758
    Likes Received:
    759
    Location:
    Jimi on Weatherzone. Killara, Sydney
    Not much chance Ortz but there is probably more snow down low than up high at the moment (massive inversions and lots of snowmaking and not much natural stuff so far) so Thredbo should remain top to bottom all week.
     
  35. Taipan

    Taipan Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2001
    Messages:
    28,258
    Likes Received:
    3,559
    Location:
    Sun Peaks 2019-2020 Season
    Snow Blowey - About as sensable a post as ive seen since Sandys nice sat pics!
     
  36. ortz18

    ortz18 First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 28, 2002
    Messages:
    3,231
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    sydney
    Cheers, top to bottom is what i wanted to hear. If i can get on to the internet when i am there i will let you know how the conditions are.
     
  37. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    72,329
    Likes Received:
    27,028
    Location:
    Cranhole, Melbourne, VIC
    not as bad as what i was expecting. 20mm of rain at work today, i was expecting over 30mm for sure, and doesnt look like up the hill they got massive amounts of rain damage either.

    having said that, its not over yet.
     
  38. sidetrack

    sidetrack One of Us

    Joined:
    Apr 20, 2005
    Messages:
    3,126
    Likes Received:
    430
    Location:
    Sunbury
    Sorry Sandy but I have to reply,

    Originally posted by BH
    Dude, mabye the knob bit was a tad heavy (???) but you were and still are wrong. People on here have being saying (but not hoping)that this would be a rain event and it is. Tell me just how much snow did PB get?? You were the one who posted negative first so dont cry when people dis you.
     
    #88 sidetrack, Jul 15, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013
  39. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 1999
    Messages:
    37,064
    Likes Received:
    387
    Some fairly moderate rain over Buller at the moment looking at the radar, shame the Buller AWS isn't showing precip [​IMG]
     
    #89 skiflat, Jul 15, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  40. rossi

    rossi First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 7, 2006
    Messages:
    1,218
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    CANE TOAD COUNTRY
    Anybody up at Falls today?

    Appreciate an update on the condition of Sun Valley runs and the rain that fell today.

    Thanks.
     
  41. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2003
    Messages:
    967
    Likes Received:
    143
    Location:
    Northern Beaches, Sydney
    Hopefully the cold air will be here overnight to but a nice layer of snow on top of whatever wet stuff we get.
    I would say Mt P will be open at perisher when the weather lifts as patrol has put out all the markers around the bottom bridge from what I see on the cams.
    Hope there is some moisture left when the cold arrives.
     
  42. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 1999
    Messages:
    37,064
    Likes Received:
    387
    Cold air probably won't arrive til Sundayish night from what I can see! [​IMG]
     
    #92 skiflat, Jul 15, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  43. The Loose Binding

    The Loose Binding First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2003
    Messages:
    281
    Likes Received:
    2
    It's looking OK for snow to 1600m again tomorrow. Sure the early snowfalls gave way to a little wetter stuff in NSW but it still wasn't the doomsday scenario that will turn 2006 into 1982, aahm, Andee.
     
  44. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    72,329
    Likes Received:
    27,028
    Location:
    Cranhole, Melbourne, VIC
    im with andDee here.
     
  45. -Waterboy-

    -Waterboy- Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2005
    Messages:
    330
    Likes Received:
    1
    Location:
    Brisbane
    Hey rossi, we left on friday before the rain. However although the conditions all week were great considerating the minimal base all the areas out side the snowmaking were beginning to get very thin(especially home trails), so any rain will close runs very quickly. Hope thats helpful and not too bad a news.
     
    #95 -Waterboy-, Jul 15, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  46. iSki

    iSki First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2003
    Messages:
    2,497
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne
    you guys are still on about this front, 99% of the time it appears you guys are wrong on all accounts, so how about you just let it happen, and discuss the aftermath
     
  47. BH

    BH One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2006
    Messages:
    1,092
    Likes Received:
    37
    hmmmm what rain event are you talking about sidetrack we had 9.4mm of precipitation at Thredbo. Reports of 15cm of snow up top so that leaves very little room for rain. Sure there was a bit of drizzle this afternoon but that is NO rain event. So like you said if you can dis it out then take it especially when you are wrong. :no:
     
  48. Monkey

    Monkey First Runs

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2001
    Messages:
    1,688
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Mt Loch Ski Resort
    Crikey ! I thought I was harsh................
     
    #98 Monkey, Jul 15, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  49. iSki

    iSki First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2003
    Messages:
    2,497
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne
    You are, but you don't kid everyone and it seems you're actually generally right with your pessimistic statements.
     
    #99 iSki, Jul 15, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  50. mountainman

    mountainman First Runs

    Joined:
    May 4, 2003
    Messages:
    430
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    kunama 975mtrs snowy mountains
    the rain hitting me atm is coming directly from the north and temp instantly warmed up 1/2 a deg