July 15th-19th OBS

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by choc, Jul 15, 2006.

  1. ivonlea

    ivonlea First Runs

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    We skied Blue Cow most of today. Perisher car park had about 5cm snow this morning. Light rain at Blue Cow from about 10am. Rain did not effect snow cover. Was still raining when we left at 3pm.
     
  2. Djon

    Djon First Runs

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    Thanks Taipan! [​IMG]

    For reference you can create a link that goes straight to your location of interest :
    - Go to the <a href='http://www.theweatherchaser.com/maps/index.html'>main page</a>
    - Scroll & zoom to get what you want to see on screen
    - Bring up the chart for the location you want by clicking on the appropriate marker.

    Now the link behind the 'Link to this page' in the top right corner is customised to that particular view. Click on it, then bookmark that new page, or just right click on it and select 'bookmark'.

    Here are some links setup for the different resorts that have an AWS:

    <a href='http://www.theweatherchaser.com/maps/index.html?lat=-36.47430675509521&lon=148.238525390625&zoom=9&lid=413'>Thredbo</a>
    <a href='http://www.theweatherchaser.com/maps/index.html?lat=-37.00255267215954&lon=147.1124267578125&zoom=9&lid=173'>Hotham</a>
    <a href='http://www.theweatherchaser.com/maps/index.html?lat=-37.15&lon=146.44&zoom=9&lid=170'>Buller</a>
    <a href='http://www.theweatherchaser.com/maps/index.html?lat=-36.90158730397847&lon=147.2442626953125&zoom=9&lid=172'>Falls Creek</a>
    <a href='http://www.theweatherchaser.com/maps/index.html?lat=-37.84&lon=146.27&zoom=9&lid=184'>Baw Baw</a>

    Note that if you zoom in too far the radar overlay doesn't show, partly because it would be too blocky anyway.

    Looking warm out there... [​IMG]
     
    #102 Djon, Jul 15, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  3. Monkey

    Monkey First Runs

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    Great stuff !
     
  4. Sago

    Sago Hard Yards

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    At the moment at CP 2 deg and drizzle.Roof shedding morning snow.Cover has turned wet but definately no snow loss as yet.Still can't see Tbar and chair to top opening very soon so looks as though I still won't be skiing the beginners run.
     
  5. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    doesnt snow melt above 0 degs?
     
    #105 MisterMxyzptlk, Jul 15, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  6. Sago

    Sago Hard Yards

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    Correct but not the same as in sept with a 60km NW and temps at 10 degrees.As i said earlier no visible loss of snow as yet,Just has turned very wet.Base is definately softening from the solid ice we have had for the past 6 weeks.
     
  7. Sago

    Sago Hard Yards

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    PS.The frost in the ground will take alot more than 12 hours of drizzle to affect it.So ask me tommorow if you want to know if we have lost snow.From last night to no I would say we have gained 5-10 cms so go figure.Even though it has been above zero.Also have seen it snow to 3 degress.Snowed today at 2 also.But so light at the moment hence the drizzle
     
  8. SNOWBOBO

    SNOWBOBO First Runs

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    very depressed at the moment, although one positive is the decent rainfalls had throughout victoria and nsw. Going off djons map(great work djon)an inch min will be had by all, central vic (bendigo 40+mm and counting) gunning it.

    I sure wish for snow but the rain should help bring smiles to farmers who were on their last chance. In some instances 80% of this seasons crop had been lost to due to lack of rainfall according ABC landline.

    rest assured the snow will come, mother nature turn. She hasnt let me down yet, i first skied in 98 and havent had a year when i couldnt hit the slopes.
     
  9. Mrstr_Chief

    Mrstr_Chief One of Us

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    all the resorts report a soft and wet cover, with drizzle to countinue, there must be a loss already...
     
  10. viswin

    viswin Hard Yards

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    too cold for a serious lost...nothig to worry about
     
  11. BH

    BH One of Us

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    Looks like the wind is starting to shift to the south- C,mon cold stuff. NSW BOM are going for subzero temps tonight down to 1600. [​IMG]
     
    #111 BH, Jul 16, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  12. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    I don't think there was any doubt about some loss. It's question of how much and how fast the freeze returns to solidify the slushy crap the rain has made.

    Here's looking towards a better season from here on in. I'm seeing better patterns for next two weeks so with a bit of luck we'll make up what's been lost and maybe a bit more.

    Winter dumps may come yet (hopefully by the time I get up to Falls in August).
     
    #112 rossi, Jul 16, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  13. FatBob

    FatBob Hard Yards

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    Thredo temp is Finally headding south. Down to 1.1
     
  14. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    Look like the southerly airflow is around the SA / VIC border with still some moisture hanging around. Will be late afternoon / evening when we start to see temps fall below zero in the mountains.
    Seems to be very little snow lost in NSW, perhaps 5cm at PB down low. It can't get much worse tha this, Can it?
     
  15. Louie

    Louie A Local

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    I doubt there has actualy been more than a trace of snow at thredbo - more likely blown snow/sleet. These obs from Thredo top station show mostly +ve temps when the precipitation was falling.

    http://www.weatherzone.com.au/observations/history.jsp?wmo=95909&type=metar

    <div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header"> Code:</div><div class="ubbcode-body ubbcode-pre" style="height: 150px;"><pre>Time Wind Spd
    (kt) Gust
    (kt) Tmp
    (°C) DP
    (°C) RH
    (%) Feels
    Like (°C) Fire Rain
    &gt;9am
    (mm) QNH

    Sun 16/07 11:00 NNE 5 7 1.2 1.1 99 -1.7 0.5(L) 0.0 1012.0
    Sun 16/07 10:00 NE 6 9 1.1 1.0 99 -2.3 0.5(L) 0.0 1012.0
    Sun 16/07 09:00 SE 4 6 1.3 1.2 99 -1.0 0.5(L) 9.4 1011.2
    Sun 16/07 08:00 NE 2 3 1.0 0.9 99 1.0 0.5(L) 9.4 1011.0
    Sun 16/07 07:00 ENE 2 4 0.7 0.6 99 0.7 0.5(L) 9.4 1011.0
    Sun 16/07 06:00 E 4 6 0.4 0.3 99 -2.1 0.5(L) 8.6 1010.8
    Sun 16/07 05:00 E 1 2 0.8 0.7 99 0.8 0.4(L) 7.6 1010.7
    Sun 16/07 04:00 NE 2 3 0.8 0.7 99 0.8 0.5(L) 7.6 1010.3
    Sun 16/07 03:00 N 5 9 1.0 0.9 99 -1.9 0.5(L) 7.6 1010.3
    Sun 16/07 02:00 NNW 1 2 1.0 0.9 99 1.0 0.4(L) 7.6 1010.8
    Sun 16/07 01:00 NW 15 19 1.2 1.1 99 -4.7 0.8(L) 7.6 1010.1
    Sun 16/07 00:00 NNW 15 19 1.2 1.1 99 -4.7 0.8(L) 7.6 1010.1
    Sat 15/07 23:00 NNW 15 18 1.2 1.1 99 -4.7 0.8(L) 7.6 1010.3
    Sat 15/07 22:00 N 13 17 1.4 1.3 99 -4.0 0.7(L) 7.6 1010.9
    Sat 15/07 20:51 N 20 30 1.4 1.3 99 -5.3 1.0(L) 7.6 1011.1
    Sat 15/07 20:00 N 17 22 1.4 1.3 99 -4.8 0.9(L) 7.6 1011.1
    Sat 15/07 19:00 N 20 25 1.6 1.5 99 -5.0 1.0(L) 7.6 1010.7
    Sat 15/07 18:32 N 18 28 1.7 1.6 99 -4.6 0.9(L) 7.6 1010.8
    Sat 15/07 18:00 N 19 26 1.6 1.5 99 -4.9 1.0(L) 7.6 1010.7
    Sat 15/07 17:00 N 16 20 0.6 0.5 99 -5.7 0.8(L) 6.2 1010.7
    Sat 15/07 16:00 NNE 15 18 0.6 0.5 99 -5.5 0.8(L) 5.6 1010.8
    Sat 15/07 15:00 NNE 11 15 0.2 0.1 99 -5.1 0.7(L) 4.6 1010.7
    Sat 15/07 14:00 N 19 23 0.3 0.2 99 -6.6 0.9(L) 3.4 1010.9
    Sat 15/07 13:00 N 16 20 -0.1 -0.3 99 -6.6 0.8(L) 2.8 1012.0
    Sat 15/07 12:00 NNE 19 27 -0.3 -0.5 99 -7.4 0.9(L) 1.6 1013.1
    Sat 15/07 11:00 NNE 21 27 -0.3 -0.5 99 -7.7 1.0(L) 1.0 1014.1
    Sat 15/07 10:41 NNE 22 32 -0.4 -0.5 99 -8.0 1.0(L) 1.0 1014.7
    Sat 15/07 10:00 NNE 21 28 -0.4 -0.6 99 -7.8 1.0(L) 0.6 1015.2
    Sat 15/07 09:00 NNE 17 23 -0.5 -0.7 99 -7.3 0.8(L) 1.8 1015.4
    Sat 15/07 08:00 N 21 27 -0.6 -0.8 99 -8.1 1.0(L) 1.4 1016.6
    Sat 15/07 07:00 NNE 17 22 -0.5 -0.7 99 -7.3 0.8(L) 1.0 1016.3
    Sat 15/07 06:00 NE 11 17 -0.6 -0.8 99 -6.1 0.6(L) 0.4 1016.8
    Sat 15/07 05:00 NNE 11 15 -0.5 -0.6 99 -5.9 0.6(L) 0.0 1017.3
    Sat 15/07 04:00 N 20 27 -0.4 -0.5 99 -7.7 1.0(L) 0.0 1018.2
    Sat 15/07 03:00 N 18 24 0.8 -5.0 65 -5.8 2.9(L) 0.0 1019.0
    Sat 15/07 02:00 N 17 22 0.8 -8.4 50 -5.6 4.7(L) 0.0 1018.8
    Sat 15/07 01:43 N 17 27 2.2 -11.6 35 -3.8 8.3(Mod) 0.0 1018.8
    Sat 15/07 01:00 N 18 23 2.0 -12.2 34 -4.2 8.9(Mod) 0.0 1019.1
    Sat 15/07 00:00 N 19 25 1.6 -11.5 37 -4.9 8.3</pre></div></div>We have been lucky - the models were spot on about the system in all respects other than the amount of moisture.
     
    #115 Louie, Jul 16, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  16. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    yes...just like every system this year, I would call that a trend.
     
  17. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Great map djon

    Hey i just looked at the buller AWS, and buller had the most to lose out of this sytem - Zero precipitation. Have i missed something, or did the weather miss buller?
     
  18. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    The precipitation has basically left vic.

    Now its time to look ahead. That cloud mass out near the rigs in bass strait will be returning to our shores this evening as a s / se. The SSW's are in in the western districts (windemere, ballarat etc.) which should give some cooler feed.
     
  19. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    The Buller and Falls AWS was not recording precip (rainfall) so the weather did hit Buller and they have lost a few cms looking at the cams.

    Their snow report saying 3cm natural from memory, so it's bascially back to manmade.

    Still not as bad as I thought it would be
     
    #119 skiflat, Jul 16, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  20. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    ah, ok, thanks andee it did seem odd that hotham got 16mm and falls zero, but stranger things have happened. (The cynic in me would say that the 2 resorts with the strongest pr departments just went and put a lid on the rain-gauges.....i have been watching too much 'absolute power'.)

    So buller lost the 10cm natural it got last week. It appears the apocolypse has been postponed for a millenia or 2.
     
  21. BH

    BH One of Us

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    We actually need wind for there to be wind blown snow. Most of the snow fell between 3am and 10am check out the windspeeds in that time frame. The reports of 15cm of snow came from people who work at Thredbo and are not associated with the marketing dept. Just remember snow does fall and accumulate in positive temps like it did yesteday all the way down to the village. [​IMG]
     
    #121 BH, Jul 16, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013
  22. Louie

    Louie A Local

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    I call BS on the Thredbo staff then. The AWS shows less than 2mm precipitation during that time. The temps were in the positives, the upper air data suggests a warm atmosphere. Other nearby AWS show similar preceipuitation rates (e.g Cabramurra).

    I just don't buy that 15cm of "snow" fell. 1.5cm maybe.....
     
  23. iSki

    iSki First Runs

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    Date: Saturday 15th July, 2006

    Snow started falling at 3am and it is still coming down! Skiers and boarders were ripping into the fresh snow at Centre Valley.
     
  24. FatBob

    FatBob Hard Yards

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    Pressure is starting to fall at Thredbo. Still warm at 2.4 though.
     
  25. BH

    BH One of Us

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    Well Louis you can look at your computer and get figures from weather stations in alpine areas that really are not accurate or you can listen to people who actually are in the mountains or maybe even read previous posts from yesteday from people up the mountain reporting heavy snowfalls.

    ps- Cabramurra is on the other side of the mountain range further north and at lower altitude you cant assume what happens at Cabra will happen at Thredbo.
     
  26. Louie

    Louie A Local

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    Most people dont know what "heavy snowfall" is. I have seen time and time again people saying its dumping when all it is is a little wind blown snow and posibly a bit of sago or sleet. The official BOM observations point to little or no snow during the period metioned. People that live year round in the alps that I have spoken to also back up that position.
     
  27. Mrstr_Chief

    Mrstr_Chief One of Us

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    Fresh wet snow...
     
    #127 Mrstr_Chief, Jul 16, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  28. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    ','? '.'? ';'?
     
    #128 Stratus, Jul 16, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  29. thepass

    thepass First Runs

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    Temps starting to drop at thredbo. The BOMs forecast (for NSW) looks promising
    Seems good for Charlotte Pass, Perisher, and top of thredbo.
     
    #129 thepass, Jul 16, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013
  30. chuck

    chuck Hard Yards

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    I'm not at thredbo so can't back up their '15cm' however yesterday morning at Hotham it was snowing heavily, and there was no wind, no sago, no sleet. It was wet snow and it was falling heavily. And Louie I have seen enough snowfalls to know what is heavy and what is not........

    Nothing was recorded on the snow measuring plate as the rain later in the day destroyed the fresh snow.
     
    #130 chuck, Jul 16, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  31. Fangin'Wolvy

    Fangin'Wolvy First Runs

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    All I know is this season is the first in a while, where winter hasn't chilled me to the bone.
    I know when it's snowing if it's chilling with rain here....
    And I'm in Melb.
     
  32. Megs

    Megs Hard Yards

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    I hear you Fangin'... last time you "knew" it was snowing from here in Windsor was back in May...

    I've been reading through past threads trying to figure out what this 540 is... can someone give me a heads up... for me I usually look for a nice low surrounded by lines all squashed together on the BOM weather forcasts and that doesn't often dissapoint me. From what I had gathered in the past was that when the lines are close together like that it usually meant that it was going to be windy... but the 540 thing has me buggered... I look and look at what your looking at but I don't see where you get the info from.
     
  33. Bato

    Bato One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    <img src=http://data.theweather.com.au/access/imageserver.jsp?image=grads/gfs/wz.gfs.AUS.mslp.24.png> the 540 line is the blue line that is on this GFS map it needs to be over the alps or close to them for snow to decent levels, i think it normally means snow to about 1400-1500m
     
  34. Megs

    Megs Hard Yards

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    Thanks Bato... I'll get this stuff sooner or later!! So if I look at this map then it doesn't look all that good at them mometn at all then!?!
     
  35. Bato

    Bato One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not great i think they have snow forcast for above 1700m good for Perisher and the top of Thredbo not so good for Victoria
     
  36. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Go here .
     
    #136 Stratus, Jul 16, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  37. powderplayer

    powderplayer First Runs

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    Well I call BS onto you buddy, Mate I work at thredbo as a liftie and I can tell you for a fact that there would of been an easy 15cm+ during the day but warm temps meant that it would melt soon after landing. I started work at 7:30 that morning and it was snowing heavy in the village for an hour or so( PS. before you say that I wouldn't know what heavy snow or "dumping is" I have also done 4 seasons at fernie).

    I watched ski patrol take obs during the day and in the village we had something like 15mm to 9am and another 8.6mm at 3pm but snowing up top the whole day so you do the math...... :goose:
     
    #137 powderplayer, Jul 16, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  38. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Settle down..................
     
  39. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    i dont see any snow. [​IMG]
     
    #139 Vermillion, Jul 16, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  40. frazels

    frazels One of Us

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    Still to warm for snow.

    Lookies here:
    http://wxmaps.org/pix/aus.slp.html

    Again, look for the Black Bold 540 line.
    In the forecasts til Friday it looks like only snow on the peaks (if that).

    Things can change quickly though. The only bad thing (other then no snow) is that it's too warm for snowmakers. I bet everyone thought it couldn't get any worse...
     
    #140 frazels, Jul 16, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  41. iSki

    iSki First Runs

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    It has been raining there, if thredbo got 15 cm of 'fresh' snow, they're kidding themselves, the rain will have washed it away and you're back at square one. Everyone pack your bags, bugger off out of weather forum and come back in August when there may just be a decent front and lets stop clutching at straws.
     
  42. SkiTiger

    SkiTiger First Runs

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    not looking good for hotham... temp is still 1.5 at 7pm, although it is dropping slowly. i cant see anything really comming out of this for HOTham. any one know whats comming after this system?

    SkiTiger
     
  43. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    close isobars and low pressure with moisture rarely disappoints

    540 line just means freezing level is bw 1400-1600 meters(ie just about the base of our resorts)
     
    #143 MisterMxyzptlk, Jul 16, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  44. BH

    BH One of Us

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    Temps are steadily dropping at PB and Thredbo- Snow tonight for sure- Hopefully the temp keeps dropping.

    On another note- There are some pretty dumb posting's been put up season ending talk which is complete rubbish. Incorrect info i.e it didnt actually snow in thredbo on saturday morning when blind freddy could quite clearly see it certainly did. Please remember that a lot of peoples livelyhoods revolve around the snow season and alot of people look to this site as an unbiased view of conditions. So just remember that when you post incorrect info about snow levels, amounts so called rain events etc. :cheers:
     
  45. Top Rock

    Top Rock Hard Yards

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    Heavy Moisture about to hit all resorts very soon....

    Top of Thredbo may just get low enough temps to snow. LOL
     
  46. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    BH: I understand your frustation, but consider this:

    You have said "Temps are steadily dropping at PB and Thredbo- Snow tonight for sure- Hopefully the temp keeps dropping"

    So how can you say snow tonight for sure, but then wish that the temps keep dropping? Those two generally go together [​IMG]
     
    #146 skiflat, Jul 16, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  47. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    raindrops are falling on my head...
     
  48. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    On a better note:

    Some rain about to go over the Vic resorts soon, but after that can hope that there is only a few more showers !

    Edited to add: Be better it means that the worst is over! [​IMG]
     
    #148 skiflat, Jul 16, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  49. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    yeah, if you're in a cherry picker holding up a flagpole.
     
    #149 Vermillion, Jul 16, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  50. Djon

    Djon First Runs

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    Very large band of r*in heading in to the Vic resorts from the South East. Gippsland AWS temperatures at Bairnsdale and Orbost where it is coming from show it has cooled a little, but for the time being it looks a bit warm. [​IMG]
     
    #150 Djon, Jul 16, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013