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July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Sandy, Jul 14, 2006.

  1. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    In here
     
  2. Zyka

    Zyka First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    OK I'll start off part2 by re-interating that I think the most important readings today will be comparisons between Adelaide AWS & Mt Lofty AWS (730m) - The aviation soundings (at Woomera) have been very disappointing, showing significant inversion from cold ground temps to those at 850hpa. But I think comparisons between these two SA locations this will truly verify what this system does interacting with actual mountain elevations.
    If Adelaide is around 10c and Mt Lofty is only a few degrees cooler then we can certainly start play the Death March for the skifields - However if Mt Lofty manages to get close to Zero then hope is very much alive - and if by miracle it actually snows there I'll be getting very excited

    MT LOFTY: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDS65112/IDS65112.95678.shtml

    ADELAIDE: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDS65112/IDS65112.94675.shtml

    Wait and see - should only be another few hours now.
     
    #2 Zyka, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  3. Bugski

    Bugski A Local

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Adelaide and Mt Lofty mean 10 tenths of FA for the hills [​IMG]
     
    #3 Bugski, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  4. Zyka

    Zyka First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Well if you have a better way of predicting what the this system is doing at higher elevations lets hear it then.
     
    #4 Zyka, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  5. viswin

    viswin Hard Yards

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    OK, rain is coming, everybody agree now on that. But the million dollars question is how much ? Bom is forecasting light rain for tonight and rain periods tomorrow,so it might not be so bad after all. [​IMG]
     
    #5 viswin, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  6. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    OK, here the satellite image from last night (10:30pm)

    The red line was the direction of travel at that time, the blue line was the projected direction of travel by the BOM.

    The red circle was the centre of low pressure(it was spinning around that point at 10:30pm).

    The "x" is where it is spinning around this morning, and the black circle is the BOM's predicted location for the centre of the low for 10am this morning.

    [​IMG]
     
    #6 Sandy, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  7. Bugski

    Bugski A Local

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Soundings - closer to where it actually counts.
     
    #7 Bugski, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  8. keefy

    keefy First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    It seems the snowline is increasing, upward, as we get closer to this event, I for one will be very concerned by the outcome, as I am due down for the week starting 23rd..

    For me wetsnow will be better than no snow, very few -ve temps at the moment, Mt Ginini and Cooma airport are -1 and 0 respectively, Wanagarat Airport and Lookout Hill are only just -ve, SA and every thing else is +ve. [​IMG]
     
    #8 keefy, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  9. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    It's hardly surprising the temps are mild..... the air is currently feeding from the north east.
     
  10. Bugski

    Bugski A Local

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    :clap:
     
    #10 Bugski, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  11. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Having trouble explaining to friends that while its going to be 12 and rain in melb on the weekend, that it wont be snowing in the alps!
     
  12. Shane-wx

    Shane-wx First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Yes keefy, i think you will have to wait until we get this low more towards melbournish or over VIC until you should start expecting half decent temps throughout the mountains! Anyway atleast ginini is half decent atm lol Thredbo on 1.4c (Which really isn't THAT bad considering this deep N'ly flow atm), might get to 3c odd. We'll have to wait and see where the BoM surface synoptics chart puts this low (Coming out at 10am), would be best if its moving in a SSE or direct S'ly direction, lets hope! [​IMG] the faster it gets down south the faster the cold air will wrap around and of course the result will be more snow lower. We'll see! [​IMG]

    Shane
     
    #12 Shane-wx, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  13. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Ernabella in the northwest of South Australia (not far from the SA/WA/NT border interesction), had 283mm in 18 hours, which is more than its normal YEARLY rainfall [​IMG]

    After stable temperatures of around 8 degrees, the thermometer swung wildy between -1.6 degrees and +51.2 degrees before disappearing into the nevernever !!!!!! [​IMG]
     
    #13 Sandy, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  14. Zyka

    Zyka First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    I don't really trust the Soundings - They are just another computer model. The BOM themselves say "Forecast soundings show relatively low resolution forecasts generated by computer models. These products are generated automatically by computer simulations of the atmosphere. They have not been quality controlled in any way and should only be used in conjunction with other meteorological guidance"
    The AWS give a live and true reading and more importantly the ones located in elevated regions show what happens when the weather systems interact with changing topology. The system that is about to cross Adelaide will be essentially the same system that crosses the Alps later tomorrow. I will happily take the readings from Mt Lofty as another peace of the puzzle - If it matches the soundings then we can comfortably kiss the snow bye-bye.
     
    #14 Zyka, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  15. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Interested to know if that figure is accurate, that is ALOT of rain!!!!
     
    #15 skiflat, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  16. SNOWBOBO

    SNOWBOBO First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    the rate these temps are going (falls creek 5.3 / melb 9.8 @ 10am)it will be warmer in the mountains than at low levels lol :rolleyes:
     
  17. Luken

    Luken One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    I read on Weatherzone what the Ernabella AWS was playing up. Apparently was reading a temp of about 51c at the time the rain was falling.Now that wouldn't be good for snow [​IMG]

    It's either faulty or we are looking at the sequel to the Day after Tomorrow...
     
    #17 Luken, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  18. Bugski

    Bugski A Local

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Soundings are not computer models. They are actual measurements. They are observations.
     
    #18 Bugski, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  19. Shane-wx

    Shane-wx First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Sandy, i hope you dont believe that Ernabella reading because quite obviously its an error :p hehe. There is no way in the word a place out there could get that much from a strong spinning low moving at a decent pace (IMO anyway) but yeh.

    I wouldn't believe it if i was you!
     
  20. slog_of_old

    slog_of_old Hard Yards

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Actually, at 5.30am this morning it actually was warmer at the top of Mt Hotham than in Brighton, where my thermometer read 2.3C!!!!
     
  21. Ijay

    Ijay Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Here's what they reckon for tomorrow,

    [​IMG]
     
    #21 Ijay, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  22. random101

    random101 Hard Yards

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    I found it funny.. its for MT.Buller
     
    #22 random101, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013
  23. bogong_flyer

    bogong_flyer First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    For those who want live upper data, are masochist and have plenty of time on their hands, you can actually get almost live data from aircraft landing and taking off from worldwide airports including Australia from Albany University in New York State. You need to know your latitudes and longitudes though!! Click on the link and go to the highest number for the latest date. Click again and go to the highest number for the latest time. You will then get a long page of coded info that looks like the data at the bottom of this post.

    The following was taken from a plane leaving Melbourne this morning at 7.53am. Among other things it tells me that freezing level above Melbourne is currently 10,000 feet or 3,000m. It will therefore be snowing on those Victorian mountains at about 2,800m or above [​IMG] .

    For those who are interested I will explain the code as much as I can with the following example:

    ASC AU0086 3738S 14450E 132153 F003 PS050 087/006 TB/ S031
    333 F006 VG///=


    ASC = ascending. You will also see DES which means... yep descending.

    AU = Not sure may have to do with Australian origin or airspace but some of the lat/longs don't make sense in this regard...

    3738S 14450E = latitude and longitude ie 37.38 South and 144.50 East which is Melbourne

    F003 = flight level - it goes up in 100 feet intervals - so F003 is 300 feet. F010 would 1,000 feet, F200 would be 20,000 feet.

    PS050 = temp - it goes up by 0.1 degreesC so PS050 is +5

    087/006 is the wind direction/speed ie almost easterly at 6 knots.

    The rest of the data below follows the plane as it climbs so you can see the location (lat and long) change slowly as well as altitude and temps etc.


    ASC AU0086 3738S 14450E 132153 F006 PS057 035/009 TB2 S031
    333 F009 VG068=
    ASC AU0086 3738S 14450E 132153 F009 PS061 017/015 TB1 S031
    333 F012 VG029=
    ASC AU0086 3738S 14450E 132153 F012 PS064 017/022 TB0 S031
    333 F015 VG019=
    ASC AU0086 3738S 14450E 132153 F014 PS067 019/027 TB1 S031
    333 F017 VG021=
    ASC AU0086 3738S 14450E 132153 F018 PS068 019/036 TB2 S031
    333 F021 VG048=
    ASC AU0086 3737S 14450E 132153 F021 PS068 015/037 TB2 S031
    333 F024 VG051=
    ASC AU0086 3737S 14450E 132153 F024 PS066 009/035 TB1 S031
    333 F026 VG031=
    ASC AU0086 3736S 14450E 132153 F027 PS058 008/031 TB1 S031
    333 F029 VG034=
    ASC AU0086 3736S 14449E 132154 F030 PS057 007/027 TB0 S031
    333 F032 VG017=
    ASC AU0086 3735S 14449E 132154 F033 PS069 021/019 TB0 S031
    333 F035 VG019=
    ASC AU0086 3733S 14450E 132155 F050 PS083 047/010 TB0 S031
    333 F052 VG018=
    ASC AU0086 3730S 14455E 132155 F075 PS033 018/015 TB0 S031
    333 F078 VG015=
    ASC AU0086 3727S 14500E 132156 F100 MS002 339/016 TB1 S031
    333 F100 VG021=

    Happy trawling for anyone who is albe to!!
     
    #23 bogong_flyer, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  24. bogong_flyer

    bogong_flyer First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    By the way the actual soundings are taken from balloons that are launched either once or twice a day (10am and 10pm). Only the main capitals have the 10pm soundings done (as a budget measure). Unfortunately, Australian (unlike the US or Europe) does not have very many stations that do soundings - one reason why the models have problems with this part of the globe.

    The forecast soundings are computer generated by the models as their estimate of future atmospheric conditions.
     
  25. Alex.C

    Alex.C One of Us

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Oh thats sort of interesting, maybe a google earth converter could be hacked up to visualise it...
     
  26. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    No, no I don't believe it's an error.... I strongly believe that the temperature swung from -1.6 to 51, then back to -1.5 in the space of 20 minute...... [​IMG]
     
    #26 Sandy, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  27. ortz18

    ortz18 First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Sandy can I ask how we are currently looking with snow levels for NSW from saturday onwards.
     
  28. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    PROBABILITY OF SNOW: at 1500 m at 1900 m
    Today (6am/6pm) 5% 10%
    Tonight (6pm/6am) 5% 10%
    Saturday (24hr from 6am) 30% 60%
     
  29. Shane-wx

    Shane-wx First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Well if you ask me you sounded pretty convinced that it was a true reading, anyway! :p Back onto topic!

    Looks as though Thredbo is up and down abit with temp! 0.7c atm which really isn't to bad!
     
    #29 Shane-wx, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  30. AUSSKY

    AUSSKY First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    BF - that's fabulous reading!!!! (and the best part is that no-one at work has a clue what it all means - they don't realise they are reading the weather...now all I need to do is put a decent map of Australia on my wall... [​IMG]
     
    #30 AUSSKY, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  31. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Where VIC? NSW?

    [​IMG]
     
    #31 Stratus, Jul 14, 2006
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  32. viswin

    viswin Hard Yards

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Yes but PB is 6.6 [​IMG]
     
    #32 viswin, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  33. Louie

    Louie A Local

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    from the bom for NSW

    Which, when converted from bom-speak, means a heap of rain on Saturday and most of Sunday with the occasional flurry on Sunday night [​IMG]
     
    #33 Louie, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013
  34. bogong_flyer

    bogong_flyer First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    [​IMG] [​IMG]

    - just a quick correction - the data is from Florida State University not Albany.


    This morning's soundings show freezing levels in SA (Adelaide, Mt Gambier, Woomera) ahead of the low to be around 2,600m - even if temps at the surface are below 10C. Freezing levels in NSW are around or above 3,000m (Wagga, Sydney, Moree).

    Best places for snow in Australia today are areas around Giles in the wake of the low - freezing level of 1500m with snow possible to 1,000m.
     
    #34 bogong_flyer, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  35. thepass

    thepass First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Charlotte Pass is going well. -2.4 at 9am. Compared to Thredbo top 1.1, Falls 4.7, Hotham 0.2, and Perisher -1. (all temps were recorded at 9am)
     
  36. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    For all the ... where, what, how ???? people go here and read for yourself. Try and get in the habit of checking BOM before asking the "experts".

    NSW BOM

    VIC BOM
     
    #36 dawooduck, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  37. keefy

    keefy First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Pressure starting to drop in W NSW.. (1018.9)

    Temp plot is difficult ATM though.

    according to the metar readings for upper Western, and NW VIC... (1019.7)
     
  38. churchy

    churchy One of Us

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    definately an error with the aws.

    there were correct and presumable accurate readings of temps around 8 degrees and 60mm of rain at 8:20pm yesterday and then it all went a bit nuts... i can't believe that 200mm fell in 3hrs, and i know the temperature didn't fluctuate from -1 to 50 in 7 minutes

    http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDS65112/IDS65112.94474.shtml
     
    #38 churchy, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  39. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Roxby Downs currently 1007. If you look at the latest BOM Sat, you can pretty well see the 'eye' of the system. And it's well.. right near Roxby Downs!!

    Here's hoping this sucker keeps heading south and into the path of the cold front. Things good go from shite to interesting over the next coupla days.

    You never know a nice moist offshore low on the front of a southerly feed and we could be in business.
     
  40. Shane-wx

    Shane-wx First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Yep the low is moving right into the path of this coldfront, heading straight towards adelaide! Could get interesting! BoM have snowshowers down to 1500m sun and mon, could be nice [​IMG]
     
    #40 Shane-wx, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  41. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    We've got Lookout Hill (965 m ASL) on 1.7 with a northerly and Falls Creek (1767 m ASL) on 6.4.

    Inversion?
     
  42. keefy

    keefy First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Rain, Measuring 5 ~ 11 MM in the NSW upper western as of 12:00, pressure at 1012.. movin' in!
     
  43. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Baro is starting to drop in Woomera.

    The system is definitely on a Southlerly course.

    Lets watch the Pt Augusta reading for a few hours. Me thinks this system is heading southwards and seawards.
     
  44. SNOWBOBO

    SNOWBOBO First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    temp at falls creek went from 6.4 at 12pm to 4.9 at 12.30. A sign maybe...
     
  45. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Yep, now doubt we are gonna get some rain out front end of this system.

    Losses could be made up for during the passage of the trailing edge and the cold front.

    [​IMG]
     
  46. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    I'd call a degree and a half drop in the temperature in half an hour a sign [​IMG]
     
    #46 rossi, Jul 14, 2006
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  47. Zyka

    Zyka First Runs

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    #47 Zyka, Jul 14, 2006
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  48. Zyka

    Zyka First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Btw, I think the Queensland system is out of the picture - It's pretty much staying on the QLD coast and heading offshore - Now if our Low really does head straight South to collide with the front that might really change things
     
  49. keefy

    keefy First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Pastoral regions of SA are 8 to 13C and picking up around 0 - 11 MM in the gauges (11:30 to 12:00)
     
  50. Outlooker

    Outlooker One of Us

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    So would anyone have a guess on these models at what the temp will be at 1700m tomorrow? Are we talking +6 and rain or +2 and rain. Only trying to gauge the chance of snow which of course would be better if they are predicting +2.

    Still interesting temps inland to the NW of the mountains. Tibouburra was 13.7 @ 12.00 yesterday and is now 9.3. Broken Hill was 10.9 @ 12.00 yesterday and is now 6.3 with 11mm of rain since 9.00am. Rain now going through Adelaide heading SW.