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July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Sandy, Jul 14, 2006.

  1. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Zyka, I am watching and hoping that this 'collision' comes off purely from the point of view that I'd like it to confound the predictions of these models.

    If the centre of the Low makes it to Adelaide and the cold feed we are really looking at an interesting weekend.

    In the meantime, next stop Port Augusta.
     
  2. SNOWBOBO

    SNOWBOBO First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    falls creek now 3.2. Was 6.4 at 12pm. Temps halved in an hour. (What the..)
     
  3. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    hmmmmm...raining and 9.8degs in Adelaide at 12.30.
    You'd normally say heavy snow for the Alps next 24 hrs...but this isnt a normal system I guess

    add: what's the highest AWS in SA?
     
  4. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Elementary Watson, it's getting colder.
     
  5. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Yep, Port Augusta down a point on the baro in the last half hour, it is still on a southerly course.
     
  6. Tyson

    Tyson First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    [​IMG]

    I'de say thats definetly heading more south that forecasted. Hmmm... maybe sandy was onto something with his blue and red arrows yesterday??? [​IMG]

    Looking at its interaction with the cloud over queensland, it doesnt seem to be pulling too much of that air down with it... another good sign!

    Fingers crossed it combines with that cold air south of it! I may just be being a bit too optimistic (I get to Falls on sunday [​IMG] ), but its looking alot better!!!
     
    #56 Tyson, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  7. McNads

    McNads One of Us

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Absolutely, it does appear to be on a continuuing southerly course from looking at the latest Satellite pic and the latest radar at WZ. Will this continue is the big question? This sure has been a strange system.
     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Hope y'all got your 'brolly and gutters in working order...
    [​IMG]

    Adelaide made it to 11 degrees. There is still some cold air there...
     
  9. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    POW, if the system continues on a southerly course, and just say it becomes a maritime system, what do you think the effects will be.
     
  10. churchy

    churchy One of Us

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    dammit, pow, i was about to post the adelaide radar... real purty, ain't it?
     
  11. thepass

    thepass First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Mt lofty went down 1.4 degrees in an hour. 6.9 to 5.5. Hopefully a sign of things to come!
     
  12. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Now Adelaide Airport is 2m above sea level and sitting on 10.3 degrees.

    Mt Lofty is 730 m above sea level and sitting on 4.7 degrees. If Mount Lofty was 1460 metres high they'd be pretty well in the freeze zone.

    If Mount Lofty was a high as Mt Buller they'd wish they had a tow.
     
  13. white_beanie

    white_beanie Part of the Furniture

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Are everyone's comments above for Vic only? Or do they apply to NSW too?
     
  14. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Well we would eliminate some 'where, whats and hows' if you yourself are more specific when copying forecasts (that you posted on page 2) [​IMG] .

    You didn't tell us who's forecast it was, where it was from, what time it was updated, neither if it was for NSW or VIC. [​IMG]
     
    #64 Stratus, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  15. Jeffo

    Jeffo Hard Yards

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Hmm im looking out my window at Mt Lofty and thinking the same Rossi [​IMG] very cold...
     
    #65 Jeffo, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  16. longinforearly90s

    longinforearly90s First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    looking at obs stations in SA there doesn't seem to be any rain with the cloud mass until the centre of the low hits the location at the temp drops considerably. this has to be good sign as it now appears to have headed alot further south and blocking the tropical feed from QLD. I think this is good sign for limited pre-frontal rain.
     
  17. thepass

    thepass First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Mt lofty now down to 3.9. Getting cold
     
  18. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    The prognosis was that there wasn't going to be a 'front' by the time the system hit the Alps, just an upper level trough and lots of r*&n.

    The migration of this system south and into the clutches of what was predicted to be a dead front may change if it can assist in sucking up some colder moist air.

    My theory is that the further south the low goes the better the chances are of a cold south westerly by the time it reaches VIC. So the plan is for it to go under VIC rather than across it.

    Just an uneducated theory.
     
  19. BH

    BH One of Us

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Temps are still too warm in NSW. But I think it still looks great. That tropical feed that people are worried about is going bye bye :out: straight out to the east and not southwards as predicted. I reckon there may be a huge shift in reports come 4.30pm from rain to SNOW!!!! Hope I am right and the experts wrong (again!!) :p
     
  20. daj

    daj First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Hate to say it but Mt Lofty is in the cold part of the low. The 850 temperature there is abour 3C at the moment in comparison to the the warm part of the low (eg NE Victoria) where the temperatures are 5-6C. This system will be too warm for snow until at least Sunday arvo. I don't want to be the bringer of bad new... am just trying to be realistic.

    David
     
  21. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Will be an exciting night tonight to see what the BoM and Weatherzone say thats for sure! I'll also like to see how the charts position the new position of the low in the next few days.
     
    #71 Stratus, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  22. longinforearly90s

    longinforearly90s First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    so why then has mt lofty received no rain at 2.00pm. all i was getting at was that mayb the prefrontal won't be too bad. Arrr, the half fulls vs the half empties.
     
  23. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    ...and why are the temps dropping so rapidly in the Vic resorts??
     
  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    The upper levels are not appearing to be giving us much love, in terms of snowfall in the next 24 hours.
    I think Adeladie's temp can be best explained by a think cover of cloud and so very heavy showers.

    I think it's very interesting though, Buller just dropped a couple of degrees in an hour and a half, and the other alpine stations look to be on the decline.
    I can't see it snowing in the alps this side of Sunday though.
     
    #74 POW_hungry, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  25. Shane-wx

    Shane-wx First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    snow-pixie, most likely because the cloud cover has just moved over
     
  26. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Checking the radars, there is basically no rain in nsw, its all in sa. Do i finally detect some optimism?
     
  27. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    and in the 3 years i've followed this forum.......sandy is always on to something
     
  28. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Do you think that the dis association with the sub tropical air mass in QLD could lead to a lessening of 'destructive' warm rain effects?
     
    #78 rossi, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  29. loc

    loc Hard Yards

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    you read my mind rossi
     
  30. Shiraz

    Shiraz Hard Yards

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    im pretty sure that the Mt Lofty AWS doesn't measure rainfall
     
    #80 Shiraz, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  31. Bugski

    Bugski A Local

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    My assessment: This system is ****ing bizarre. I have not seen any much like it in the 4 years I have been following the snow weather. To have a low trqack southerly like that from the middle of Australia is just wierd.

    I have no idea what is going to happen other than to state the obvious. It could be epic - if it keep going south and stalls over tassie. Or it could be disastrous.
     
  32. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    I agree matoh, but we've already discussed the disaster scenarios ad nauseum, time for epic discussions. It can only get better.

    That satelitte link is showing the cold feed clearly, and the cloud mass over nsw is doing a big fat naught.
     
  33. thepass

    thepass First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Im getting worried charlotte pass 4.4 degrees higher then other resorts. Should i be getting worried or will it cool down?
     
  34. bogong_flyer

    bogong_flyer First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    The new GFS doen't really change the outlook over the next 24 hours ie rain below around 2000m with the snow-line lowering during Sunday to resort levels.

    Once the system passes into the Tasman it looks like it is going to start pumping some pretty cold air into SE Aust - wouldn't be surprised to start see snow falling to well below 1,000m by Tuesday.

    If the system hangs around in the Tasman for a while - which it could do, by mid-week we could even see low level snowfalls in SE Aust whilst our Kiwi friends are fretting about rain damage (mind you there would have to be a huge amount of rain to make a dent in their existing cover).

    Next weekend's system for SE Australia is also starting to shape up quite nicely..
     
  35. BH

    BH One of Us

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Okay bogong so GFS still says rain till Sunday- But this has hardly been reliable this year.

    What is your gut feeling for the weekend. Do YOU think it will still rain and if it does rain how much damage do you think will be done.?
     
  36. bogong_flyer

    bogong_flyer First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    I think there will be rain tomorrow - but there could be wet snow at times high up as well. The low will be sucking air in from different directions so there will be a mix of airmasses with temps fluctuating a fair bit.

    The low also won't be as strong by the time it gets to the Alps - so they won't get as much rain as the inland areas. This is good as the damage will be lessened. Overall there will be some damage but not a catastrophe and the following few days look good for light falls each day so a net gain is quite likely particularly high up.

    Baw Baw/Lake Mtn will do well once the southerly stream establishes as well.
     
  37. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    I'm not quite sure where the GFS base line for the predictions start, possibly from here:

    [​IMG]

    If they do run it from a snapshot of this mornings situation then the whole thing is out of date right now because this system is much further south than was on the baseline.

    It has been tracking steadilly south all day and doesn't look like hanging a violent right all of a sudden. Although anything can happen I guess.

    Still around 1005 on the bar at Roxby Downs/Woomera which makes me think it stationary at the moment.
     
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    All the models (GFS, LAPS, EC) are showing rain until sunday so I don't think there's any doubt about it.
    What is in doubt is what the follow-up on Sunday (and later) will be. Hopefully enough snow to repair the damage.
     
  39. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    weird, weird, weird!!!

    I honestly thought that this system would track pretty speedily east-ish, dragging with it some substantial amounts of tropical-fed moisture...and the resulting damage to our snow.

    However, its general southerly track and subsequent looping over SA IS a nice sign.

    Note however how the cold air feed from the Bight is bumping into the cloud mass quite nicely [​IMG]

    All we need now is for the whole bloody casserole to track dead east and do its business!!!

    Fingers definitely crossed [​IMG]
     
    #89 woggybot, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  40. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Here's the satellite image from last night (10:30pm)

    The red line was the direction of travel at that time, the blue line was the projected direction of travel by the BOM.

    The red circle was the centre of low pressure(it was spinning around that point at 10:30pm).

    The black "x" is where it was spinning around this morning, and the black circle is the BOM's predicted location for the centre of the low for 10am this morning.

    The red "x" is where it was spinning around this afternoon:
    [​IMG]

    And here's what it looks like now:
    [​IMG]


    Looks like it will cross the coast not far from Adelaide.
    See how the cold front stretching from the Bight to Perth has colided with the cloud mass?
     
    #90 Sandy, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  41. Shiraz

    Shiraz Hard Yards

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    FWIW:

    3pm (CST):
    Adelaide Airport (2m ASL): 11.1 C
    Mt Lofty (730m ASL): 2.3 C
     
    #91 Shiraz, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  42. ortz18

    ortz18 First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Thredbo temp has dropped 2 C in the past half hr to an hr. Is this normal, it seems like quite a rapid drop.
     
  43. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    I totally concur that a situation contra to the prediction is emerging. The further south this system gets is key if it is to contribute to the fetch from the south.

    Sandy, good call on last nights obs.
     
    #93 rossi, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  44. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    That is a quite rapid drop.
     
    #94 Stratus, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  45. steeps

    steeps One of Us

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Sandy - You are definitely onto something here. Now - how far south do we want this system to go before heading east ? (NSW interest of course).

    I have a nice gut feeling that I am going to see a lot of fluffy stuff (hi Frog) falling from the sky next week v what it was looking like even 24-48 hours ago.,,or am I overly optomistic
     
  46. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    I note that the radar moisture echoes in W Victoria are now tracking SW.. that is away from the Alps. Could be a stay of execution from the the dreaded ra&n band.
     
  47. bogong_flyer

    bogong_flyer First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Thanks Sandy for posting those images - from the satpics it does look like the whole show is moving south.

    However.....

    the animated radar radar images of rain over SA shows the low to be currently spinning just west of Woomera and moving ESE.

    What this could mean is that the low has different centres at different heights (the sat image is picking up the higher level clouds).

    One of the challenges of forecasting is trying to work out which of the possible centres is the important one for tracking where the low is. The same problem occurs in trying to work out where the centres of tropical cyclones are - the sat images aren't always give forecasters only one possible answer - but the stakes there are very high!!
     
    #97 bogong_flyer, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  48. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    bogong_flyer - Could the animated sat vs. Visible sat show us the differnce in this?
     
  49. Tyson

    Tyson First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Just out of interest Sandy, what made you think yesterday that it would track in such a southerly direction as it has???
    Were your comments yesterday more of a "Imagine if this happened..." or were you hinting to us all that you could see something like this happening?

    I dont understand why it has travelled in the direction it has. Surely that high moving over WA should of pushed it more east? And where is the influence to push it south even comming from?

    Good call by the way Sandy! :thumbs:
     
  50. Alex.C

    Alex.C One of Us

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Just had a look at the charts and they look to be relatively well aligned currently. The last chart yesterday seemed to show a fair chunk difference between the centre of the lows, 500km or so.
     
    #100 Alex.C, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013