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July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Sandy, Jul 14, 2006.

  1. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    I think Sandy just saw it had moved in that direction over the last few frames so he project it furthur with the arrow?
     
  2. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Whyalla in Northern Spencers Gulf down to 1007.

    The low is definitely exerting its influence in a southerly direction. If this system establishes over southern Spencers Gulf we gotta whole new ball game in a maritime Low Pressure system fed by southerly fetch.
     
  3. FatBob

    FatBob Hard Yards

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Bom forcast for NSW is not the best.

    A high pressure system is centred in the Tasman Sea. A low pressure trough is
    moving into western NSW and is dragging moisture from the tropics into a
    developing rain band. The rain band is expected to pass over the region tonight
    and into Saturday. The atmosphere is quite warm with the passage of this change
    and the only snow/sleet likely to fall will be around the peaks above 1900
    metres during Saturday. The low will move to the east of the region on Sunday
    with rain easing to a few showers, falling as snow above 1800 metres. A few more
    showers will persist until Tuesday as the low remains in close proximity to the
    east of the region.

    OUTLOOKS:
    Sunday : Showers, falling as snow above 1800 metres.
    Monday : Few showers, falling as snow above 1600 metres.
    Tuesday : Clearing shower, falling as snow above 1600 metres

    And the precip for perisher valley

    Tonight (3pm/9am) 1
    Saturday (24hr from 9am) 3
    Sunday (24hr from 9am) 2

    3's on Saturday.... Hope it is cold <img src="https://www.ski.com.au/xf/styles/graemlins/smirk.gif" alt="\:\/" title="smirk" height="15" width="15" />
     
  4. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    That BOM forecast is actually worse than it was this morning.

    Goes against what most are now saying on here [​IMG]
     
    #104 IAB, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  5. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Hey FatBob (love ya handle), the BOM prognosis is based on old data and the situation has moved rapidly since they called it.
     
    #105 rossi, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  6. BH

    BH One of Us

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Hardly optimistic from the BOM- Well it wont be the first time they have been wrong this year (I hope) and probably wont be the last (I know!!). [​IMG]
     
    #106 BH, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  7. Makka

    Makka First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Sheep graziers alert issued for ACT, this is usually a very good sign, when the sheep are fallin so is the snow....
     
  8. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    hah, i wouldnt be surpised this year if the whole thing fizzed and we saw no rain or snow.
     
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Can you give us some evidence other than optimism?
    This forecast was issued at 4.30pm.
     
    #109 Claude Cat, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  10. Outlooker

    Outlooker One of Us

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    I would think that with a unique system like this the models accuracy would be thrown and and we must face the fact that for this system they have been wrong so far (tracking etc).
    From the satellite pics their is cold air in the east and cold air in the west which will all be drawn in the low so anything could happen.
    Even BOM are likely to be wrong on this one.
     
  11. d-spin

    d-spin Hard Yards

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Adelaide max tomorrow 12c & Mt Lofty now down to 1.9c . Pressure dropping steadily all over the state [​IMG]
     
    #111 d-spin, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  12. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    I've been informed (from Blackheath I think) that the afternoon synoptics and the resulting commentary come from the morning ECMWF run.

    Plus, Freddy can see from the emerging situation - that is the diassociation of the low from the tropical feed AND the general path of this system that the prognosis may not be correct.

    However, the empirical evidence is drawn from the fact that BOM and their forecasts come from old data.
     
  13. Squidly

    Squidly One of Us

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    BOM are obviously playing the conservative card.
     
  14. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    I like the sound of that. Poor sheep = snow deep (well its the freezing winds that kills the sheep so not quite true but it sounded good)
     
    #114 dawooduck, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  15. Mattus

    Mattus First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    I thought sheep graziers warnings were related primarily to strong winds?
     
  16. steeps

    steeps One of Us

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    It's all looking very interesting - Sandy (or others)- when you get a chance can you answer my previous post question ? Before 6 today B4 i log off for the week ?
     
  17. Makka

    Makka First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Freezing, wet wind and just going on past experience of watching the BoM alerts and what happens when they are issued.
     
    #117 Makka, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  18. Louie

    Louie A Local

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    I really don't know why people keep saying this. This system has ben accurately tracked by the models since Monday this week. They have got the position of the low correct to with a few hundred k's. The position does not actualy matter all that much anyway as the air is TROPICAL. It wont "suck in the cold air" in the same way a cut of southern ocean low does not "suck in the warm air".

    No snow from this low - few flurries on sunday night and into early next week at best.
     
    #118 Louie, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  19. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Yeh the wind blows them over and the freezing rain gives them hypothermia. The same thing happens to lifties thats why they give them little huts to stand in [​IMG]
     
    #119 dawooduck, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  20. Mattus

    Mattus First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    From weatherzone this arvo 5pm.

    Friday Cloudy. nil - Moderate NE/NW

    Saturday Rain periods, snow on peaks. 5-10cm above 1700m Gale NE

    Sunday Showers, snow on peaks. 5-10cm above 1700m Light variable

    Monday Snow showers. 2-5cm above 1300m Light variable

    Tuesday Snow showers clearing. 2-5cm above 1500m Strong SE

    Wednesday Isolated snow showers in NSW. <2cm above 1100m Light SE

    Thursday Sunny. nil - Light variable

    Friday Mostly sunny. nil - Light variable

    Sounds good for Perisher [​IMG]
     
    #120 Mattus, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Interesting that farmers in outback SA are calling this a fizzer.
    ABC weather
     
    #121 Claude Cat, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  22. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Barometer in Pt Augusta down to 1007 and baro in Roxby and Woomera on the way up. The Low is still headed south when according to last nights run (GFS etc) it should have been about five hundred k's east by now.

    So yes the basic premis of the models are correct, the low will move generally sou' east.
    But it has taken a four hundred click holiday (south) first.
     
  23. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    and 100ks a month ago meant a foot of snow on the main range and nothing in vic alps....
     
  24. Style Doggie

    Style Doggie Hard Yards

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    The current sat pics aren't showing much of a southerly feed into this yet, so the fact that the front is tracking a few hundred k's further south than predicted won't save us just yet. We need it to pick up the southerly feed and soon so we can see some colder temps.

    Fingers crossed!
     
  25. longinforearly90s

    longinforearly90s First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    radar now shows showers pushing into western vic on path for ballarat region. be interesting to see readings at lookout hill sometime after midnight. the last snow system the other day passed thru here just north of ballarat.
     
  26. Style Doggie

    Style Doggie Hard Yards

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    #126 Style Doggie, Jul 14, 2006
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  27. Style Doggie

    Style Doggie Hard Yards

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Radar showing some patches of red, very heavy falls.
     
  28. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Around 1005 at Leigh Creek and 1007 at Pt Augusta.

    Still heading SSE. I have a feeling the low will continue to track in this general direction. The centre of the low maybe at Warnambool by morning.
     
  29. SkiTiger

    SkiTiger First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    So wat odes all this change mean for Vic snow resorts. wats expected? wat will the snow levels be?

    skitiger.
     
  30. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    It means nothing yet. It's still 'wait and see'.

    By the way, 'wat' is the term for a Thai temple.

    It's 'what'.
     
    #130 rossi, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  31. bogong_flyer

    bogong_flyer First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Nothing has really changed from yesterday - the low is currently near Woomera and heading SE.

    For the Alps it is basically rain tomorrow, snow developing on Sunday. Light snow falls possible most days next week with snow descending to below 1,000m by mid-week.
     
  32. FatBob

    FatBob Hard Yards

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Glad we cleared that up then.

    Could have saved about 10 pages of discussion with that statement.

    [​IMG]
     
    #132 FatBob, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  33. PowderMadness

    PowderMadness First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Just got a report that it is raining a little bottom north perisher atm, temperatures outside the lodge just above 2c.

    Note the Crap bellow may bore you --

    Quick thanks to all the weather gurus in this forum. Over the last few years you have saved me tones of money an KM's on my car.

    I visit the mountains every weekend final decision can be made by upto 2am saturday morning thanks to all your very informative posts and forecasts. I will be delaying this weekends trip (occassional advatages in being the Boss) and going for Sunday(Still in the air) monday & tuesday

    I can not contribute much in the form of forecasting capability albeit I am learning - Thanks again. As my fiance and i do a large amount of backcountry arround thredbo I will start contributing a little with reports if I'm lucky just after snow falls have occured.

    Thanks again to all who contibute..
     
  34. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Oh, oh.

    Here it comes. Lets hope its light.

    [​IMG]
     
  35. ridgeback

    ridgeback First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Rossi...its interesting here in adelaide. Its been icy cold all day, but the threatened rain has not hit??
    It is still very cold and windy conditions come and go.
    It looks like it may have missed us (gone below?)

    ps - keep up the great work champ. There are plenty who appreciate it.
     
  36. Ryan

    Ryan First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    well its green and that means its only light. Am i reading that correctly? light rain cant be that bad...can it?? [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
    #136 Ryan, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  37. PowderMadness

    PowderMadness First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Could that be because the bands are still some distance from the radars.
     
  38. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Latest GFS projecting the thei low pressure trough if i may call it, from its position now, straigh SE to over the Alps. Now whether this is correct or not is another matter since GFS didn't predicts the course it took over the last day or so.

    However, ECM showing roughly the same thing!

    I really have no idea whats going to happen though so its a bit hard for me to put in a forecast...but temperature wise, suggests GFS...at the all mightly 850hPa surface STILL says warm warm warm untill way into Monday, even.

    SNOW-cast suggest a lower level of 1600m+ over the weekend (maily Saturday night > onwards), which is *better* news. I wonder why it saying that though...

    Good news at least - all models showing LOW pressure! :p
     
  39. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Dont think so, the radar is showing heavier bands furthur back.

    You may see bits of bands 'dissapear' on the radar when they hit the higher elevated terrain,
    this is due to the radar not picking it up over elevated terrain. You may also see those bands increase in strengh as they move over the Alps due to the lift effect...just maybe.

    Main action still a fair way out yet though i would say!
     
    #139 Stratus, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  40. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Well, I just watched the system carefully, and projected a likely path IF it continued in that direction. Nothing much more than that... the reason I found it interesting is that the position of the low is very important.

    Let's say, for argument's sake, that it conitnued to track south... it would pick up colder air, and it would intensify over the Bight because it would pick up moisture there.

    Now, I'm not saying it WILL continue to move further south, but it might. It's more likely to track back towards the east and bring lots of rain, but it has been a little wayward, so it may not turn out exactly like the predictions.
     
    #140 Sandy, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  41. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Well, if we could choose, it would be best if it tracked as far south as level with Tassie... but I think that's unlikely.
     
    #141 Sandy, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  42. PowderMadness

    PowderMadness First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Thanks bn

    The warm air seems to be reaching Thrdebo now.
    Up 1.7c in two hours night time aswell should be getting colder.

    Thredbo AWS results last two hours

    14/19:00 2.1
    14/18:00 1.3
    14/17:00 0.4
     
  43. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Lets just hope Sandy's Low travells in the better direction!

    I'm keeping an eye on this one [​IMG]
     
    #143 Stratus, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  44. doubleblack

    doubleblack First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    This system is weird.
    Here in Adeliade is is bittly cold.
    I took the dog for a walk about 3.00 oclock
    this afternoon and it was an icy wind gloves weather a very lazy wind.
    Got home and I checked my weather station and the temp was 8.5 degrees wind chill factor was 3 degress.
    It is now calm and the temp still around 8.5 degrees.
    No rain as yet so anything thing could happen.
    Mt lofty in Adeliade hills is currently 2.0 degrees.
    Who knows what it will do next.
     
  45. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    The low appears to have tracked to somewhere south of Pt Augusta and Yunta.

    The lowest baro I can see is still Yunta at 1007.

    I thought we'd have it at least down near Narocoorte by now but it appears to have slowed.

    Nevertheless, it still hasn't chucked a dramatic right into VIC yet.

    Down to 1.9 on Mt Lofty at 700 odd metres, all Adelaide region readings are SE or ESE..

    If we can keep the low centred south of the major alpine centres we'll be ok.


    Just gotta survive any NE rain first.
     
  46. FatBob

    FatBob Hard Yards

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    0.4 at Thredbo.

    Not good but at least it has dropped.
     
  47. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Looks close to there, although if you look at the 256K Adelaide radar, it's still seems to be a little west of Pt Augusta, maybe around Iron Knob, rather than to the east near Yunta.


    *****

    Actually, if you look at the Woomera radar you can see the centre is located almost exactly 50km south of Woomera. Woomera dropped to 1005.6hPa at about 3pm this arvo.
     
    #147 Sandy, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  48. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    No the rainband is spinning clockwise ATM.

    The NW is getting wet but the low baro's are still NE of Adelaide.
     
  49. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Whyalla and Woomera still 1008 and 1009
    Marree similar, Roxby similar.

    You could be right Sandy, but the eye of the low is spread across the top of the Gulf.

    Doesn't seem to be tracking much but is spinning like a top.
     
  50. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    No, on second thoughts I totally agree.

    The bloody thing is stationary south of Woomera.

    How bizarre.
     
    #150 rossi, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013