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July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Sandy, Jul 14, 2006.

  1. Style Doggie

    Style Doggie Hard Yards

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Does the fact that it is now stationary allow it to suck up more cold air or (perish the thought) suck dowm more tropical warm air. I would have thought give the clockwise rotation it would be drawing colder air from the south. Can someone help me out with this?
     
  2. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    I think a second low is developing.

    1008 at Broken Hill. This is what is sucking down the the east coast moist air.

    The Adelaide low will become its own system.
     
  3. Monkey

    Monkey First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Prognosis Negative and rising.......... pretty much playing out what was already known except that it will be worst. The tale end of the this front is thin to say the least.
    Only Monday seems to have anything of value to Vic resorts.
    [​IMG]
    I think NSW is being a tad to positive about the quality snow they will recieve in the wash up.
    Ultimately snow down 1800 mtr is a pretty wet affair The ground cover above will be slop at best.
     
    #153 Monkey, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  4. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Its looking good!
     
  5. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Wow, never seen you say that word before!
     
    #155 Stratus, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  6. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG]
    I saw it ONCE before.

    The rest of the time it's "it will be" & "quality snow they will recieve"
     
    #156 Sandy, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  7. adminvb

    adminvb First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    That's two words.
    Must say you're a 'the glass is half full' kinda guy blue neon. I too see a lot of rain on a light cover. Eeyuw! Hope you're right and I'm wrong.
     
  8. AndrewK

    AndrewK First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    This low is well separated from the colder antarctic systems that usually bring snow. There may be some snow but my 30 years as a skier says probably not. Not based on any advanced knowledge of atmospheric physics- just experience and a long memory.
     
    #158 AndrewK, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  9. momas folly

    momas folly Hard Yards

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Whats the go? BOM Melb predicts 11 deg top temp for tomorow yet Snow level is at 1700M? Seems odd that the freeze line would be restricted close to the coast and not hit the mountains? Any thoughts?
     
  10. The Frog

    The Frog Old n' Crusty

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    the 544 line will cover melbourne but not the mountains.
     
  11. AUSSKY

    AUSSKY First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    If you are watching the radar you are actually tracking the middle level low, which is why it doesn't seem to agree with surface pressures.

    Looking at the analysis at 10am the surface low was further northeast that the 850hPa low, which was further north than the 300hPa low.......
     
  12. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Or would it also be due to warm upper levels?
     
    #162 Stratus, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  13. SkiTiger

    SkiTiger First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    this all seems to be very confusing... all these people with different ideas! i need someone to lay it out for me and possibly wuite a few others. Whats happening!?!?!?!
     
  14. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    SkiTiger - Rain. Freeze level around or above 1800m.
     
  15. Planks & Sticks

    Planks & Sticks One of Us

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Neither do I!

    What I am going to do is I am going to just wait for the system to hit the mountains and hope that a miricle happens and the system dumps 50cms down to 1,000m!

    <font size=1>EDIT: Put in bold texts to make the comment clearer</font>
     
    #165 Planks & Sticks, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  16. SkiTiger

    SkiTiger First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    crap.
     
  17. Top Rock

    Top Rock Hard Yards

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    hmmm the latest sat loop showing the cold air sliding under the warm moist upper.....

    I reckon we will get 15cm of freezing rain ..
     
  18. adminvb

    adminvb First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    That about wraps it up - all bases are covered now. [​IMG] There hasn't been a good ice storm in at least 15 years or more so bring it on!
     
    #168 adminvb, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2013
  19. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    MILDURA
    Up goes the temp
    Down comes the rain
    12mm so far and counting

    Mildure Obs
     
    #169 skiflat, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  20. keefy

    keefy First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Definately stalled north of Vic on the SA/NSW border......

    ...Please choose the snow direction..... :angel:

    Question about how the placement will create better chance of snow.... as a low carries a clockwise airflow how can it help if it moves in any southerly direction from where it currently is. I can only see it helping if it moves south on the southerly airflow side, e.g. it has moved offshore over the east coast, because any air dragged from the north has to be warmer, yes?

    Also I do not think the freeze levels are low enough below the bight to help enough, or am I missing something? or are we relying on the cold pool sitting on the westerly side of this low?

    The main 540 line is way south

    Sorry don't mean to seem dumb...
     
  21. Rednut

    Rednut First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    we're getting spanked with rain here in ballarat [​IMG] good for us, but worried about the temps still [​IMG]
     
    #171 Rednut, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  22. Jeffo

    Jeffo Hard Yards

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
    VICTORIAN SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
    for Localised Damaging Winds
    For people in the Alpine District
    Issued at 10:30 pm EST on Friday 14 July 2006

    A deepening low pressure system northwest of Mildura is moving southeastwards
    and will cause northeast to northerly winds to strengthen to 60 to 80 km/hr over
    the Alpine district overnight with gusts to 100 km/hr possible. Winds should
    begin to moderate Saturday afternoon.
     
  23. steve8113

    steve8113 First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    as i am new to all of this, if it is going to rain, how does this effect the snow, eg, 10mm of rain will cauce a loss of 10cm, i know temps are important but is there any guide in the amount of snow loss before the cold temps move in
     
  24. DeesOnSkis

    DeesOnSkis One of Us

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    My prediction is that the rain/sleet/snow is just about to hit! Temps at the AWSs range from 0-2c. Thredbo Top Station, Falls Creek and Mt Buller AWS all around 2c, with Hotham at 0.8c. Perisher also showing between 0.5c (at 1970m) and 2c (1604m).
     
  25. Chamonixxxx

    Chamonixxxx First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    I agree..... the radar is showing huge amounts of rain heading to the alps.... just about to hit [​IMG]
     
    #175 Chamonixxxx, Jul 15, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  26. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    #176 luvthabumps, Jul 15, 2006
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  27. JG

    JG Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Well a pleasant surpeise for NSW - Perisher and Thredbo (up high) reporting a dusting - temps still just in negatives - will these temperatures hold??
     
  28. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Let's keep it to discussion and post the observations in the other thread.
     
  29. JG

    JG Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    yeah just saw that the other thread :rolleyes: I was surprised (a little excited) considering what it was looking like when I switched off about midnight.

    But my question above still holds true... Will these temperatures hold?

    Most models agreed that the snow level would continue to drop over the weekend, and so far we have seen the first wave of moisture come through at an acceptable temperature. There appears to be more moisture still heading towards the alps... Temp Temp Temp ???
     
  30. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Being in negs at the summit where the weather stations are, is good but when its only -0.5 etc its going to be raining is lots of areas.

    Temps will go up during the day, not down so expect rain to set in until tomororw evening at this stage (from what I can see)
     
  31. Shane-wx

    Shane-wx First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Only light rain going over NSW resorts atm, just skimming them and i would say its not going to do much damage with only drizzle in the lower parts of thredbo. Should end up being ok [​IMG]

    And its snowing above 1600m [​IMG]

    Going by Perisher obs!
     
    #181 Shane-wx, Jul 15, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  32. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Have to agree not as heavy at first predicated, at this stage. Little damage done at snake gully hut area at hotham! [​IMG]
     
    #182 skiflat, Jul 15, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  33. Shane-wx

    Shane-wx First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    YAY temps seem to be holding strongly, if not have dropped slightly at Perisher, wow this has really suprised me! hopefully the band continues to come over light so up top gets some nice snow and down bottom only get minimal drizzle! [​IMG] But yeh IMO (Like i said quite a while ago) i think the resorts will miss out on the bulk of the rain (Which is really good news) AND the lower parts will only get abit of damage, nothing the snowmakers can't fix up in one night! [​IMG]
     
    #183 Shane-wx, Jul 15, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  34. BH

    BH One of Us

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    I think this system has fried people brains- Once it started snowing the temps are not going to rise and if it does it will be marginal. While it is snowing why on earth would you want the bulk of the moisture to miss the Alps???
     
  35. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    IMHO BOM was on the money. Group thought star chart gazing was the big looser .... again.

    Woo hoo snow time.
     
  36. viswin

    viswin Hard Yards

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Sandy can u lease give us an updated about what is happening??? Also, on a day like this one, It would be very good to get an update on Snowatch...
     
  37. Zyka

    Zyka First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    The bulk of the rain is still to hit (look at Mt William) as the low moves east. The temps at the resorts are slowly rising as day breaks and will continue to do so. If we get the peak rain hitting aorund lunch when temps will be at the highest not even PB and Hotham will fair well.
     
  38. BH

    BH One of Us

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Just becasue it will be midday it doesnt mean it will be the warmest part of the day. I think The temps will drop as the day goes on. Not increase. This system has a southerly feed. That rain band passed over shepparton airport the temps dropped by .01 as the rain went over. its now sitting at 10c. Plenty of snow left in this system
     
  39. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    I've posted this in the observation thread, but here it is again:

    OK, it seems like there is SOME snow falling rather than ALL rain.... It may or may not continue and it is likely to turn to rain as the day gets warmer...... but one question is, WHY is it SLIGHTY colder than expected??

    Let's look at the satellite.
    Here's mid yesterday:
    I've marked the warm winds coming down from QLD. The blue dot near Adelaide was the centre of low(around which the system was spinning).
    To the southwest is the weakening cold front, but you can see the cooler air is taken both down to the SW, but with an injection of that air up to the north and into the low pressure system which was SLIGHTLY further south and nearer the coast than expected. (see the discussion in the "predictions & discussion" thread) This partially explains the low surface level temperatures in southen SA including Adelaide.
    [​IMG]


    The next one shows the situation around 7:30 this morning. Again the centre of low is shown by the blue dot near the SA/VIC border. I've also show the NSW/VIC resorts with small blue dots. Much of the warmer QLD air is pushing more into the Tasman, while the cooler air from yesterday is pushing through SA and into southern NSW and northern VIC. As the centre of low moves to the SE, I'd expect the temps to gradually drop.
    [​IMG]
     
    #189 Sandy, Jul 15, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  40. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Sandy,

    I think that throughout our analysis of yesterdays activity, this is precisely the outcome we expected and predicted (and hoped for) from this crazy Low.

    The models certainly pointed to a more easterly and rapid track of the system, but it has moved far slower than the models predicted.

    This hasn't made much difference to the shape of associated systems but it has allowed the low to interact more positively the systems that are generating a more 'antacrctic' airflow.

    I agree that as the system moves further east it will indeed suck up a bit more cold air and we should see the temps drop a bit, to the point that all we see is rain/sleet down low (1450) and more positive precipitation higher up(1550).

    But we'll see.
     
  41. viswin

    viswin Hard Yards

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    10.25 am Snowy mountains update from BOM confirms that snow is falling lower than expected though still going for a rising of the snowline during the day...
     
  42. The Frog

    The Frog Old n' Crusty

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    first up, great explanation and really love the easy to follow charts and diagrams above Sandy...keep it up please. [​IMG]

    ...and 5 days a week of 5am updates is enough for snowatch I think (I do have a real job too you know). [​IMG]
     
    #192 The Frog, Jul 15, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  43. viswin

    viswin Hard Yards

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Okidoc Frog, you're right...weekend need to be enjoyed....but would still love to see an update on your site (your sponsors as well probably). [​IMG]
     
    #193 viswin, Jul 15, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  44. try hard

    try hard Hard Yards

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Check the cams for the bottom of Mt Perisher and compare to the 1pm yesterday shot. Vast improvement and this is the bottom of the mountain.
     
  45. The Frog

    The Frog Old n' Crusty

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Looks like itś closed in again at Blue Cow:
    [​IMG]
     
    #195 The Frog, Jul 15, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  46. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    the only good news seems to be that every town in the path of this low has at most received only between 10-20mm of rain.
    If it continues to move slowly east, the bulk of moisture may fall tonight when the temps should be closer to zero
     
  47. viswin

    viswin Hard Yards

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Snow-pixie...at least for nsw resorts, I see many more good news about this low... [​IMG] So far Thredbo has very marginal snow lost on lower parts which is a great news
     
    #197 viswin, Jul 15, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Sandy, Iam begining to think VSG and you are the same person. Settle down with that Blue Crayola mate! :p
     
  49. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    Ok, I'll go red....
     
  50. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Re: July 15th-19th. Part 2 (predictions and snowfall discussion)

    hey sandy do u think the low will continue to track South ? What are your thoughts ?
    Doesn't seem to be too bad at the moment for the resorts but feel it's going to get worse this afternoon....?